[Bob Reed]

“Does anyone think Pujols and Molina will be elected to the HOF in the same year?”

I do. Very much, in fact.
But just to get this out of the way, as we all know, Albert Pujols will immediately sail in with 90% or more of the vote. So the question obviously is about Yadi Molina.

The ONLY objection to Molina is raised by jerks people like Keith Law who want to pretend that career or peak WAR is the only yardstick by which HOF candidates should be measured, and furthermore that Baseball-Reference WAR is the only yardstick by which catchers should be measured.

The trouble with this, is that Baseball-Reference does not acknowledge the contributions of catchers, vis-a-vis pitch framing. Far as I know, every other reputable resource does, but not B-Ref. And thus, Yadi loses a substantial chunk of value at that highly idiosyncratic website. (Of course, there is also Mr. Law’s assertion that pitch-framing itself is somehow an unethical act by the backstop, since he is “misleading the umpire.” No, I’m not kidding. Law is passionate about putting numerous steroid cheats in the Hall Of Fame, but he would keep an elite pitch-framer out, in part on the basis of ethics. Don’t send your kids to Harvard, folks; they could turn out like that guy.)

At any rate, I suspect that within the next 3 or 4 years Baseball-Reference will join the rest of the civilized world and include pitch-framing data.

Or within the next 3 or 4 years, more mainstream research will be done to quantify the value of game-calling. (Initial number-crunching by the highly respected Mitchel Lichtman nearly a decade ago indicated that Molina’s game-calling had been worth nearly 9 runs per 150 games for his career. There is no website right now that includes that contribution in their WAR totals.)

Or within the next 3 or 4 years, the holdouts who are less stubborn and stupid than Keith Law will come to their senses and think this thing through. What we have in Molina is probably the best defensive player in history at his position — a decidedly defense-first position. In fact, Yadi Molina may be the greatest defensive player ever, at any position. Here are the numbers at Fangraphs:

Top 5 catchers by defensive runs:
1) Molina 393 runs
2) Ivan Rodriguez 320
3) Russell Martin 305
4) Brian McCann 289
5) Bob Boone 232

Top 5, all positions:
1) Molina 393
2) Ozzie 375
3) Brooks 360
4) Belanger 346
5) Pudge 320

So Molina is quite possibly the greatest single defensive player in baseball history. And in terms of overall career, he is also one of the better hitters at his position, thanks in large part to his durability. Only 15 catchers in history have more RBI’s than Molina. Only six have more hits!

Pudge Rodriguez and Jonathan Lucroy were good-hitting catchers, maybe even very good, while Yadi was of course mediocre. Right?

Career wRC+
Molina 97
Lucroy 102
Pudge 104

So we see that the gap just ain’t that big. Despite popular perception (including my own, admittedly), the gap just Ain’t. That. Big.

A well-regarded national baseball writer very recently said that Yadi Molina was the Omar Vizquel of catchers. He misspoke. Yadi Molina was the Ozzie Smith of catchers. And that IS a big gap.

[Bob Reed]

Here are a few forecasts for the 2023 season, from the Steamer projections.

Nolan Arenado 130 OPS+, Austin Riley 137, Paul Goldschmidt 140, Bryce Harper 141, Alejandro Kirk 142.

Kirk is short. Kirk is fat. And very soon Kirk might be the best-hitting catcher since Johnny Bench. Tijuana Santa just turned 24 and has already started an All-Star game — and he has four years left before free agency.

I don’t know if I’d want him behind the plate for 140+ games, or want him for the next ten years…but those questions are 99% irrelevant. Kirk is such a good bat he can DH for 50 or 60 games a year, and catch for 90-100. And I don’t care if his body breaks down when he’s 30. He’ll be long gone from St. Louis by then.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the kind words, JJ. As for Gabriel Moreno, I suspect he simply isn’t available, full stop. He is a consensus uber-elite prospect — sort of the Jordan Walker of the Jays — and the reason Toronto would trade Danny Jansen or Tijuana Santa, aka Alejandro Kirk. I think Moreno is going to be terrific, and I don’t blame you a bit if you covet him. But in terms of Blue Jays, I’ve set my Cardinal cap for Mr. Kirk, and I hope Mo has too.

Daulton Varsho is such a unicorn, I dunno what the Diamondbacks see for his future. He caught fewer than 20 games in 2022, though. So he might be strictly an outfielder going forward; I think Arizona would probably want to hold on to him.

——————————————————–

That’s a nice list, eh Cranny? Even if it turns out there’s no perennial All-Stars, there’s still a slew of 3-4 WAR players. And three guys like that = two average players plus a superduperstar.

[Bob Reed]

“If we combine his performance over 2021-2022, here’s what we see: a .496 slugging percentage, .817 OPS, and a 141 OPS+ which means he’s been 41 percent above league offensively over that time.”

Bernie is incorrect there. While Jansen did have a 141 OPS+ in 2022 (215 at-bats for the entire season), he had a 105 OPS+ in 2021 (184 AB’s for the entire season). So the total for 2021/22 is roughly a 125 OPS+. Which admittedly is terrific for a catcher…unless of course that catcher is accruing just 200 AB’s per season.

—————————————————-

Sean Murphy had 612 plate appearances in 2022.

Danny Jansen had exactly 600 plate appearances in 2022 & 2021 & 2020. Combined.

In short, Danny Jansen is an injury machine and the Cardinals would be insane to even consider making an offer for him. It might be even crazier than making an offer for 32-year-old mediocrity Christian Vazquez. Only Murphy and Alejandro Kirk should be under consideration for the catcher slot. They are stars. They have 3 and 4 years of team control left, respectively. And they don’t make any money!

And either of them should be gettable without surrendering a starting outfielder or elite prospect. How about this? Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan, plus Liberatore or Thompson or Pallante or McGreevy, plus Yepez or Burleson, plus a low minors sweetener like Cho or Baez or Willis.

And if you think that’s too much to give up, well that’s precisely my point. The Cards have plenty of desirable players they can trade, without touching Walker, Winn, Graceffo, or Hence. (Or Leonardo Bernal.) And without cutting a chunk from the MLB outfield. The Cards can basically trade nothing but redundancies and get a star catcher in return.

For starting catcher, Murphy and Kirk aren’t the best two choices. They are the only two choices. If you can’t get one of them, it’s better to just try a timeshare with Herrera & Knizner, grab a crap backup veteran like Tucker Barnhart, and hope for the best. But it really, really, really should not come down to that.

[Bob Reed]

18. Freddy Pacheco
19. Alec Willis
20. Jimmy Dale Crooks III

Crooks was a rather young collegiate draftee, and spent several (age-appropriate) weeks at Low-A Palm Beach hitting very, very well with a 149 OPS+. I expect he and fellow backstop Leonardo Bernal to split time fairly evenly at Peoria in 2023, where I hope to get a good look at them and Tink Hence, among others. Maybe Crooks can make me not hate the 2022 Redbird draft so much. We’ll see.

[Bob Reed]

Jonathan Mejia at #14.
Freddy Pacheco at #15.

The 24-year-old Pacheco may or may not be ready for the majors, but it’s fair to say he has nothing left to prove in the upper minors.

Double-A: 48 innings, 27 hits, 74 strikeouts, ERA a nice even 3.00
Triple-A: 37 innings, 18 hits, 48 strikeouts, ERA of 2.21

Pacheco has enjoyed consistent health/durability, logging 62 innings in 2022, 54 in 2021, and 55 in 2019. To my knowledge he’s never visited the Disabled List — and that’s worth something. For his pro career he’s been a strikeout machine, and that’s oh so de rigueur right now. With a 37% K rate and 14.2 whiffs per 9 innings since 2019, he ranks 12th in both among the 2,293 qualified minor league pitchers over that timeframe.

[Bob Reed]

Hmmm. It’s almost as if Mike Maddux didn’t want to change occupations after all. Maybe he (and Jeff Albert) just wanted to get away from Ollie Marmol.

I’ve never had it happen, but I’m sure it would be irritating to answer to a boss who isn’t nearly as competent as yourself.

[Bob Reed]

Jonathan Mejia at #12.
Freddy Pacheco at #13.

Fun extrapolation for Mejia: Taking his 2022 road game numbers X7, you get 553 at-bats and a .291 average with 63 doubles, 7 triples, and 21 homers. Plus 126 walks and a .467 OBP.

As for Pacheco, he’s the pitcher I’m hoping Paniagua turns into in a couple of years, i.e., a 24-year-old reliever who is borderline dominant in Triple-A. Freddy had a dandy 11.5 strikeout per 9 innings rate this year for Memphis, and believe it or not that was the lowest K rate among his eight minor league stops.

And thanks for the generous words, Bling & Lefty!

[Bob Reed]

(The competition of college ball is equivalent to the now-extinct short-season A-Ball level.)

Bob, I’m curious about this statement. I would have thought that high level college ball (SEC, ACC, Pac 12) is a bit higher than that, more on the level between low A and high A. I say that because we often see mid round (4-10) college pitchers cut through low A like a hot knife through butter in their opening season.

Anyway, is the short season A assessment something you’ve read elsewhere or just your own general ballpark?

————————————–

Excellent question, 25.
Keith Law, who’s been analyzing/ranking minor leaguers at national platforms (ESPN, The Athletic) for roughly 15-20 years now, gets asked about this very thing two or three times a year in his chats. The answer never changes: short-season ball is equivalent to Division 1 college baseball. Same answer when Longenhagen at Fangraphs is asked, I’m pretty sure.

I was surprised the first time I saw that response, many moons ago — because like yourself, I’ve seen some college superstars enjoy immediate dominance in the minors at the A-Ball level. But as time has passed and I’ve tracked LARGE sample sizes of collegiate stars, I’ve noticed how many struggle at even the Low-A level when first exposed to that type of competition.

Some conferences are considerably tougher than others, of course. And within the SEC, for instance, if you took the conference All-Star team in recent years, that might be a limited group who are at the Low A-Ball level talent-wise. But the thing of it is, even in the very best NCAA conferences, once you get to the 3rd and 4th starting pitchers — or even the Saturday starter for most teams — the depth just isn’t there. Not like in the pros. So the college stars can pad their numbers pretty easily.

————————————-

Take JJ Bleday for the most recent supporting evidence, 25. Huge college superstar, home run king at a glamourpuss SEC school, drafted #4 overall in 2019 and immediately a consensus top 30-40 overall prospect in all the minors before he’d ever played a profession baseball game.

His slashline for his final college season? .347/.465/.701
His slashline in High-A right after college? .257/.311/.379
Now, to be fair that was in the Florida State League. But still a difference of nearly 500 OPS points sums things up rather neatly. And furthermore, two years after that he still couldn’t manage a .700 OPS in Double-A.

Again, it’s the lack of quality depth that drags down the overall talent level in college ball. Think of it like the Negro Leagues, in a way. The best Negro Leaguers were every bit as great as the best Blanco Leaguers…but the Negro Leagues on the whole weren’t as strong as their white peers simply because of the difference in depth (white leagues were drawing from 10X the population base, to field just twice as many pro teams). Similarly, pro baseball draws from all of the best available scholastic & collegiate talent. So of course there is no way possible that the SEC has ever been at any point equivalent to a Double-A league, nor anything close to it.

Dozens of 19 and 20-year-olds playing, and playing well, at the Double-A level? C’mon. To borrow from a great medieval philosopher, that’s inconceivable!

[Bob Reed]

Leonardo Bernal at #10, for me.
And Jonathan Mejia at #11, please.

Mejia has been described as a “high-probability long term shortstop” at Fangraphs. And although Fangraphs is provably, grotesquely and comically terrible at evaluating Cardinal position player prospects, they have been terrible in pretty much one direction only. They UNDERestimate.

Moreover, they specifically have radically underestimated the defensive abilities of numerous St. Louis farmhands over the past half decade. Bader and O’Neill in the outfield; DeJong, Sosa, Edman, and apparently Donovan on the infield. Not to mention Masyn Winn, who rates a 65 grade for speed at MLB.com and a 60 for fielding, but only gets a 50 fielding grade at Fangraphs, and 60 for speed.

So what I’m building up to in my long-winded way, is that if Fangraphs of all people says a 17-year-old Cardinal shortstop is very likely to remain at shortstop, that ironically means more to me than if someone much, much smarter were to say it.

—————————————

And then there’s Mejia’s bat. He posted an excellent 145 OPS+ in the Dominican Summer League, and was better and better as the 3-month season progressed.

June .638 OPS
July .918
August 1.217 with a solid 9/11 BB/K ratio

I’ve been torn between him and Hjerpe for the last two rounds of voting — but the four-year age difference just barely outweighs the fact the Hjerpe has conspicuously succeeded roughly 1 1/2 to 2 levels higher. (The competition of college ball is equivalent to the now-extinct short-season A-Ball level.)

[Bob Reed]

“It’s an impressive start, but it’s not unprecedented. Ivan Herrera was only a few months older when he put up a 136 wRC+ at Low A in 2019. I like Bernal in the low to mid teens, given the small sample size.”

That’s a (mostly) fair point, 25. But Leo Bernal was in fact more than eight months younger at the same level. And eight-plus months is a pretty big deal, a much bigger deal when we’re talking teenage prospects than, say, 22 and 23-year-olds.

And although you’re quite right that his entire season was a modest sample size, that pushes him from the 3rd-best Redbird prospect to the 5th. But no lower. Because the 18-year-old Bernal has two things in his favor that Ivan Herrera did not at the same stage of development. Bernal has (1)real present power, and (2)overwhelmingly positive home/road splits — the latter of which has meaning to me, as Roger Dean Stadium is of course notoriously hitter-unfriendly. That double advantage for Leonardo can be summed up in one stat:

Away from Roger Dean, Leo’s isolated slugging was .363. So Bernal at #8. Jonathan Mejia at #9.

And thanks very much for the kind words, Nigel. (I think you’re thinking of Daric Barton, though. He’s the guy who had one terrific season for the Oakland A’s, around 6 WAR if memory serves, and then faded oddly and was completely washed up by his late 20’s.)

[Bob Reed]

Leonardo Bernal at #6
Ivan Herrera at #7

Bernal was a distinctly above-average batter in Low-A at age 18 (he doesn’t turn 19 for several more months) so I expect him to finish the 2023 season in Double-A. As a teenager. That’s highly unusual for any prospect at any position, much less a switch-hitting backstop.

My favorite thing about Leonardo is the hot streak from July 15 – August 30. During that stretch of 6+ weeks he hit .397/.462/.776. And struck out less than 10% of the time. I realize it’s only a hot streak — but it’s the specific type of hot streak that can indicate a special kind of talent, a truly exceptional type of ability.

Herrera you already know about. His season felt vaguely disappointing. But as someone said earlier (Pads, I think) Ivan actually did hit pretty well in Triple-A in 2023, posting a 111 OPS+ with solid plate discipline markers. Far too soon to bail on him, just because the MLB manager didn’t like what he saw over a brief handful of games in the big leagues.

[Bob Reed]

“I think all of you are giving away too much for Murphy. I would just go after Vazquez and keep our players.”

Depends on what specifically the Cards give in trade, of course. But my personal preference of Gorman + Liberatore + Yepez or Burleson + a sweetener from the rookieball or Low-A level won’t hurt the current MLB team much if at all, barring some horrific rash of injuries.

The emergence of Brendan Donovan, coupled with Arenado’s decision to stay in StL for another half-decade, leaves Nolan Gorman at least somewhat redundant. Liberatore will have zero value to anyone if he repeats the disappointment of his 2022 season. Yepez/Burley can’t reasonably be expected to ever be more than 2-3 WAR ballplayers because of fielding & running limitations. (I shouldn’t lump them together, really. Yepez is atrocious is the field, maybe the single biggest defensive liability in the Majors. [In fact he was exactly that, when I crunched the numbers at Fangraphs in September; the worst defender in MLB, on an inning-for-inning basis.])

—————————————————-

As for Murphy v. Vazquez, at B-Ref Murphy has been worth 3.8 WAR per 600 PAs, and Vazquez 1.5.
At the Fangraphs website, Murphy is a 5 WAR player and Vasquez 2.8.
And Murphy is more than four years younger than Vazquez — at a grinding position that obviously tends to age fairly quickly. And Murphy will very, very likely be cheaper than Vazquez in 2023, leaving more payroll flexibility for stronger additional moves.

Murphy’s career OPS+ is 116, and Vazquez’ is 85. That difference of 31 is enormous. It’s the difference between Brendan Donovan and Stan Musial.

Moreover, Sean Murphy may actually be a distinctly better hitter than he appears at first glance. And Vazquez might be distinctly worse. Vazquez’ career home OPS is 82 points better than on the road. On the other hand, Murphy’s career road OPS is 136 points higher than at home. So the difference might be more like Brendan Ryan and Stan Musial.

Nolan Arenado, lifetime road OPS: .818
Sean Murphy, lifetime road OPS: .820

————————————————

Bob Reed: You are right on Noot, but that is the point. He makes the most sense from the A’s perspective…unless they are to be the Las Vegas A’s, and then Gorman and Liberatore have greater appeal.

Your point is taken, Nigel. But I think the Birds have enough alternative trade chips that they can easily beat any other team’s offer without dealing away Noot, or Walker, Winn, et. al. I could be missing someone, but the only two teams I see who have the depth in their farm systems, plus young talented-but-redundant MLBers, are the Dodgers & Orioles. And those are two of the very few teams who do not need Sean Murphy.

[Bob Reed]

I’ll take Leonardo Bernal at #5.

The switch-hitting 18-year-old catcher posted a 117 OPS+ at Palm Beach, and away from the unfriendly confines of Roger Dean Stadium he hit an amazing .333/.395/.696.

In a way he’s sort of the position player version of Tink Hence. Small sample size, and only in Low-A Ball, but nevertheless very, very promising. And he’s a year and a half younger than Tink.

[Bob Reed]

Nootbaar has been worth 3.8 WAR in his career thus far, per 600 plate appearances, per Baseball-Reference. For context, Bryce Harper over his career has been worth 4.3 WAR/600 (Tyler O. has been worth 4.4 and Dylan Carlson 2.6). I don’t see Lars as one of the trade pieces, as he might be the current Cardinal outfielder most likely to put up a 4-WAR season in 2023, given O’Neill’s injury tendencies.

Murphy should be gettable via some combo of Gorman, Liberatore, Yepez or Burleson, and a low-level sweetener like the strikeout-prone Baez, or Alec Willis or Won-Bin Cho. If the A’s prefer more certainty, they could opt for Donovan over Gorman I suppose. In any case, very little payroll would be added to the Birds, and all of the top prospects should be retained — and a 40-man logjam would be reduced a smidge.

With the modest addition of Murphy’s salary (around 4 million bucks) the club would almost surely still have room to acquire one of the two Japanese stars, Ichiro-lite outfielder Masataka Yoshida or twirler Koudai Senga. Yoshida, by the way was managed by So Taguchi. And had the highest OPS on his team this year. By a margin of 241 points.

As for Burleson, I do think he’s gonna hit MLB pitching. But he’s a lot like Joc Pederson, i.e., no defensive or baserunning value, and probably struggles against lefties too much to be a 150-game regular. (Pederson has been worth 2.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances for his career. Quite useful platoon guy, but not the type to covet.)

[Bob Reed]

“Bob – regarding Vazquez, per B-R, he had 2.1 WAR just this past season and 1.0 last season. I like to use both sites for catchers, since the WAR values fluctuate so much defensively. He also had 2.5-3.0+ WAR seasons in each of ’19 and ’20 (pro-rated).”

Fair rebuttal, Pads. And thanks for the response.
I also prefer to combine the defensive valuations of B-Ref and Fangraphs — but for all positions except catcher, since to the best of my knowledge B-Ref still refuses to include pitch framing data. I’m pretty sure that’s why Fangraphs rates Yadi Molina a Hall Of Famer with 55.7 career WAR, while B-Ref and Keith Law say he is not, with just 42.2. (Law is a funny guy. He has repeatedly, strongly implied that Molina is in fact unethical when framing non-strikes into strikes, and therefore zero credit should be given for that particular skill. No, really. But at the same time, Law wants actual rules violators Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens honored by induction into the Hall Of Fame. But I digress.)

At any rate, I’d be grudgingly okay with Vazquez or even Barnhart, but solely as a cheapo one-year placeholder. But even then, only grudgingly. Because I feel like the timing is ideal for a Murphy trade. Three years left before free agency. He’s 28, in his prime. And the Cards are fairly overloaded with 2-3 WAR prospects and young MLBers, e.g. Yepez, Burleson, Liberatore, Herrera, McGreevy, and perhaps Gorman & Donovan depending on their development.

If the Birds can get Sean Murphy while holding on to Walker, Winn, Graceffo, Hence, and Leonardo Bernal, then they almost have to do it. Aggressively pursuing mediocrity is what got them the Fowler, Ozuna, Leake and Matz disasters. (I confess I was in favor of the latter two.)

[Bob Reed]

“Even with only $20M to spend the Cardinals could still make some significant upgrades if they go the trade route. There are some good players out there with modest salaries that might be available by trade. Instead of spending cash the Cardinals will have to spend prospect capital.”

Exactly!
Sean Murphy is easily a top 5 catcher in baseball, and all he’ll make is about 4 million bucks in 2023. Also, he’s not a bum like Christian Vazquez or Tucker Barnhart, two career sub-mediocrities whose names are being relentlessly floated lately as possible Redbird targets. (Does Derrick Goold not know that Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs exist, and actually display numbers for players, indicating whether those players are any good or not?) Ugh. Over the past two seasons, here are the top 3 MLB catchers in Fangraphs’ version of WAR:

1) Realmuto 11.0
2) Will Smith 8.5
3) Sean Murphy 8.4

Then in 30th place, Vazquez with a paltry 2.0 WAR. (Again, that’s over two seasons.) And well below him, Barnhart at 0.9 WAR. In short, they pretty much stink. And they are multiple years older than Murphy. And they stink.

—————————————————

Cleveland may be a trade target as well. The Tribe are in a weird phase of their history, mimicking Tampa Bay with their teeny tiny payroll — and yet also winning, at least in 2022. But maybe, just maybe they’d consider a generous offer for the final two pre-free agency years of Shane Bieber. He’ll make about 10 million in 2023, and that’s only going up from there.

Now. For three years of Murphy and two seasons of Bieber, in total you’d probably have to give up, say, Gorman or Donovan, plus Yepez or Burleson, plus Pallante or Zack Thompson, plus Matt Liberatore, plus a pair of low level but high upside prospects like Josh Baez and Alec Willis. Something like that. And payroll would only get a $15M bump, or so. And most importantly, the Cards would retain their top half dozen or so prospects. By my ranking anyway. 😉

—————————————–

Or just sign Senga and trade for Murphy. That’ll probably add up to just about $20M or so. (But to be blunt I can’t imagine the cubs would let the Cards out-bid them for the Japanese star.)

[Bob Reed]

I’ll take Tink at #4, please.

There were 1,862 minor leaguers in 2022 who threw at least 40 innings. Tink ranked 7th in ERA, at 1.38. And he was first in FIP with a 1.59. (It’s just a bit more difficult to have a microscopic FIP than ERA.)

That 1.59 FIP is the lowest by a teenager in full-season baseball since at least 2005 (again, minimum 40 innings). That’s as far back as Fangraphs’ database goes, I’m afraid.

Don’t know about his spin rates, Nigel, but I do know his swinging strike rate was elite. Not far behind mega-prospects Eury Perez and Andrew Painter, and distinctly better than Grayson Rodriguez, Mick Abel, and Kyle Harrison. (These are 5 of the top 6 pitching prospects per Fangraphs. And at MLB.com all of them except Mick Abel are among the overall top 25 prospects.)

Tink is high risk, of course. Even more than most pitchers, as he barely threw any formal innings in 2020 or 2021. But he doesn’t really have a ceiling in my opinion, so there’s only 15-17 minor league pitchers I prefer to him. I look forward to seeing him in Peoria come Spring.

[Bob Reed]

“A young fella I’m very curious to hear other posters thoughts on is Leo Bernal.”

Leonardo Bernal is my 5th or 6th-favorite Redbird prospect, ChiTown, and a definite top 100 overall prospect by my lights. The 18-year-old switch-hitting backstop was a distinctly above average hitter at Palm Beach, and his defensive rep is solid for such a young kid. Can’t logically leave someone like that off a top 100 list.

But the two things that really stood out about his 2022 season were his early/late splits, and his home/road splits.
First 35 plate appearances, he fanned 40% of the time. Ugh.
Remainder of the season, he struck out just 13% of the time. While slugging .500 (.262/.333/.500).

And the other, even more impressive splits.
At Roger Dean Hitters Graveyard Stadium: .196/.253/.264
At all other Florida State League venues: .333/.395/.696

If he had posted the above numbers over a 350-400 PA sample, he’d be behind only Walker & Winn for me. But with just over 150 at-bats this season, some caution is obviously advisable.

——————————

Anyway, I’ll also go with Graceffo at #3, please. Tink has more upside but Graceffo has the stronger record of health/durability. (And Graceffo’s plausible ceiling is #1/2 starter in my opinion, which is nothing to gesundheit at.)

[Bob Reed]

Dale Murphy, Mattingly, Munson. I think they all clearly suffer from the same thing, which is lack of longevity.

HOF Voters in the past took an especially hard-line approach to players accumulating 400 homers, 2,500 hits, etc.

As far as Donnie Baseball’s prime is concerned, during his best 4-year stretch (’84-’87) he was certainly as good a hitter as there was in the sport. But others could make the same claim, as a bunch of guys were equally great at the plate.

1984-87, ranked by wRC+ (almost exactly the same as OPS+)
1) Jack Clark 157
2) Pedro Guerrero 155
3) Mattingly 152
4) Boggs 152
5) Schmidt 148

I love that the top 2 on that list were acquired by the Cards at one point. Part of the tradition of adding star bats — like Larry Walker, Reggie Sanders, Carlos Beltran, Paul Goldschmidt, Jim Edmonds, Nolan Arenado, Scott Rolen, and so forth. (Honorary mention to Cesar Cedeno and Will Clark as well.)

Speaking of Rolen, I suspect he’ll be the sole inductee in 2023 via the BBWAA ballot. Don’t know about the special committees, but I’d be surprised if Bonds/Clemens/Rose get in during their lifetimes.

[Bob Reed]

Masyn Blaze Winn at #2.

The MLB Pipeline sages place 23 shortstops among their top 100 prospects. Of those 23 elite shortstops, Winn has by far Pipeline’s highest grade for throwing arm with a perfect grade of 80. (Gunnar Henderson and Carson Williams share the 2nd-best grade, far weaker than Winn at just 65.)

Winn is graded 65 for running, which places him 2nd behind only Royce Lewis’ 70 grade, among the 23 elite shortstops. Everyone else, 60 or below.

And Masyn is tied for the 2nd-highest fielding grade with a 60 grade, which trails only Ezekiel Tovar’s 70 grade.

—————————————————-

In short, based on Pipeline’s own scouting grades, Masyn Winn should eventually add more to his MLB team through non-batting contributions than any other shortstop prospect currently in the minors. Pair that with his solid bat — league-average hitting in AA at age 20 is good for anyone, much less a middle infielder — and you have a very plausible star in the making. He’s a top 10 overall prospect and might have even more upside than Walker.

[Bob Reed]

“Other than Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina, I can only come up with Hernandez, Simmons, Carlton, Gibson and McCarver who were multi-year AS’s who were drafted and developed in the Cardinal system.”

Top of my head, there’s also Dan Haren, Matt Carpenter, Sandy Alcantara, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Martinez. (Fellow old-timers may recall that Haren is one of the few pitchers to start the All-Star game for both the N.L. and Junior Circuit.) There’s probably a couple more, but I’m too lazy to do the research right now.

Anyway the premise of the thread, the general lament re recent Cardinal top prospects, is not unfair exactly. But it’s incomplete I think. Because so many NON-elite Redbird prospects, i.e., never on anybody’s top 100 list, have excelled over the past decade or so, providing star-level contributions for a year or two or more. I’m thinking of the aforementioned Lynn & Carpenter, as well as Zac Gallen, Harry Bader, Paul DeJong, and Tommys Pham and Edman. I guess you could throw in Aledmys Diaz’ rookie campaign as well.

At any rate, the Cardinal farm has been very productive over the past decade and figures to continue that way — though I gotta say the most recent Redbird draft was extremely frustrating, fixating as it did on a very narrow draftee demographic. Best Player Available…or Best Collegiate Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Available? Which seems like the better strategy, fellow fans?

[Bob Reed]

“And Yepez does it again. Misses a flyball chance down near the RF corner. Not a routine play but one a big leaguer should make. Why does Marmol keep sticking him in the outfield?????”

I’ll take this one.
Because Marmol is a young dolt who never played or managed above A-ball until this year. He does not understand how to give his major league team the best chance to win. He is bad at his job. Incredibly, Yepez has played twice as many games in the outfield as he has at DH. That’s managerial malfeasance.

“Hicks hitting 103 tonight. Still no score in the sixth.”

Yeah, the organization has obviously thrown in the towel. They can’t be bothered with trying to give Jordan Hicks an actual successful career in the big leagues. Apparently that just requires too much thinking, too much planning, too many smarts. Instead we are right back to where we were 4 years ago. No thinking. Just throwing. Kind of like a caveman, or a pitching machine, or a much, much less effective version of Rob Dibble, or maybe a gorilla.

“Throw it as hard as you can, Jordan. Throw the ball as hard as you possibly can for as long as you can until you are injured. That’s the plan!”
I give him five weeks before the next break down. Six, tops.

“Romine is kind of like a dump truck out there on the base path, but he scores.”

Not pinch-running for Romine The Old Slow Catcher when he represented the go-ahead run in the 10th, just another bungled opportunity by Ollie Marmol. Is he really too stupid to see that the value of the go-ahead run in the 10th inning vastly outweighs the infinitesimal risk of getting down to your “last catcher” by pinch-running? (If you’re short on runners, a pitcher can pinch-run, they’ve done so since the sport began. You cannot let him run for himself there. The run is too valuable. You don’t have to study metrics/analytics to understand this fact.)

“Let’s get to Minter right here. Small ball time.”

Small ball? With Marmol? Small ball is a strategy requiring brains and sometimes a little creativity. Marmol has never displayed either quality. Just look at how he used — or rather, didn’t use — Tommy Edman’s skillset tonight. The Boy Wonder manager understands that Tommy Edman is in a terrible slump; it’s why Tommy was demoted by Marmol out of the leadoff spot. But with not one but two perfect opportunities to drop down a sac bunt in the very late innings, Marmol called upon Edman to sacrifice on neither occasion.

Recapping. In the 9th, Edman came up with the go-ahead run on first base and none out. No bunt.
In the 11th, with men on first and second and none out, and a one-run lead, no bunt. (Before anyone asks, Tommy has laid down 3 sac bunts since the start of last season, and 13 as a pro ballplayer. He knows how to bunt.)

If Tommy was still hitting like 6 weeks ago, then sure maybe in the 11th he should swing away and try to break the game open on his own. But the 9th? With any hitter who is a capable bunter, that’s a sac bunt situation all the way, because with Helsley pitching that one run is extremely likely to determine the outcome. In any case, Tommy ain’t hitting like 6 weeks ago. As Marmol well knows.

——————————————————

I’ll see you guys next season. Watching Marmol mismanage this team day in, day out, is breaking my heart. I can’t look at his stupid stoic stumblebum face in the dugout any more. I can’t do it. (I feel like I’m watching the team back in the late 70’s before ownership brought in Herzog and reversed course entirely.) Marmol’s counterproductive roster construction, the bass-akwards batting orders, the inexplicable in-game “strategies” or lack thereof, it’s all defective. Ollie Marmol is just a grade D manager completely out of his depth, a profoundly stupid individual. And as a notable redneck philosopher once said, you cannot fix stupid.

[Bob Reed]

Marmol is an idiot beyond all comprehension. He truly is.

First Woodford isn’t good enough because his slider isn’t preferred.

Then Dakota Hudson has to work faster.

Now it’s Tommy Edman.

Can’t this idiot, this boy manager, ever appreciate successful — in some cases highly successful — ballplayers for what they are, rather than what he hopes and wishes they could be? There is an arrogance and ignorance operating with Marmol that is stupifying. And you can throw “Dylan Carlson, leadoff man” into that observation as well.

Maybe Marmol would not understand this, having been on the earth for a short time and having never played baseball above the lower dungeons of the minors, but players have a powerful need to be comfortable in order to succeed at the highest most competitive levels.

This doesn’t mean they don’t try to still keep improving. Of course they do.
But you don’t order successful players to improve, to change. It is asinine.

[Bob Reed]

“I don’t consider him (Tommy Edman) our most valuable player and I believe his skill set can probably be found all over the minor leagues but oh well.”

Yeah, I hear you, Willie. Some of the “best” versus “valuable” discussion is just a matter of defining terms. He’s the most valuable Cardinal, in the sense that he’s a borderline star and makes no money. Kinda like how DeJong was three or four years ago. Or Bader when he’s healthy and hitting like in 2020 & 2021. Or Tyler O’Neill last year. Or Flaherty in 2019.

The best Redbird players are unsurprisingly Goldschmidt and Arenado, the two future Hall Of Famers still in their primes. But if you could get the same (presumably massive) return in trade for either Goldy, Arenado, or Edman right now, then Tommy would likely be the last one you’d trade, of those three. Because his salary is miniscule and theirs are mountainous. (Not that Mozeliak is trading any of those guys, of course.)

And while it’s true that Tommy’s general skillset is fairly mundane, even commonplace, it’s also true that he’s irrefutably among the very best of that type, at the highest level of competition. Like prime Tommy Herr or Mark Ellis, but even a sliver better, because of baserunning. Tommy Edman’s elite combo of defense/baserunning is almost unsurpassed in the sport. The following is a slightly modified copy/paste from a few days back.

At glovework + baserunning, Tommy Edman is beyond mere 99th percentile. He’s 99.somethingth percentile. Tommy made his MLB debut on June 8, 2019. Since the start of the 2019 season (and averaging the defensive values of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference), here are the top 7 non-catchers for defense + baserunning:

1) Trevor Story +65 runs
2) Javy Baez +58
3) Tommy Edman +56
4) Kevin Kiermaier +54
5) Nick Ahmed +48
6) Francisco Lindor +45
7) Nicky Lopez +40

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