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I think Ollie will try different looks so we will see a lot of churn early on. Everybody’s favorite lineup may show up.
I find Steamer to be an interesting off-season diversion, but some will attach greater importance to this than me…
Number of players per team with a wRC+ over 110 by steamer
AZ 3
ATL 6
BAL 6
BOS 3
CHC 3
CWS 8
CIN 1
CLE 8
COL 3
DET 4
HOU 6
KCR 4
LAA 6
LAD 8
MIA 4
MIL 6
MIN 7
NYM 10
NYY 8
OAK 3
PHI 5
PIT 5
SDP 5
SEA 4
SFG 4
STL 11
TBR 10
TEX 3
TOR 10
WSN 2— Griff (@Jram2TBJ) December 14, 2022
Thanks for the info, Brian.
While it’s quite nice to have 11 hitters projected at 110 or better by the Steamer system, I’m more encouraged by the Birds having 8 at 118 or better. For context, the average #3 hitter in baseball last year had a 116, the best of any batting order position.
I felt like the numbers that say 166 players will hit for a 110 wRC+ or better may be a little skewed. In 2022, 153 players with 50 PA or more hit over 110 wRC+. If you bump it to 100 PAs, then it’s 142 players. In 2021 you had 133 guys at 110 wRC+ or better over 50 PA, and 129 guys had 110 wRC+ over 100+ PA. In 2020, it was 147/128. In 2019, it was 153/142.
It seems like it may be a little high, but if the ban of the shift improves offense a little, I guess we could see that many. FWIW, from 2022 back to 2019, the Cards had 5, 5, 2, and 3 meet that threshold at 50 PA+. So 11 would be quite the jump, but we did have five more guys over 100 wRC+ including Yepez, Gorman, O’Neill and Carlson who could be fairly expected to take a step forward in 2023.
It doesn’t seem like we should expect O’Neill to equal is 2021 output since it was far and above his average over 5 MLB seasons. Nor should we expect another 2022 which was well below his career averages. If he matches his averages he will hit .250 with a .788 OPS. A 3.7% HR rate means if he gets 500 PAs he will hit 18-19 HRs. A 26.9% K rate means for 500 PAs he will strike out 135 times.
He didn’t have a significant platoon split during his good 2021, other than more power vs lefties as normal for a right hand batter. In his down year in 2022 he had a substantial platoon split, terrible vs righties but still hit lefties pretty good.
With 2 GGs we could expect superior defense. We can also expect him to miss some time here and there with boo-boos. Even in 2021, he missed a couple weeks a couple times, leg in April and finger/hand in May, and IIRC he sat out a couple games a couple other times with a stiff back or whatever. This will provide openings for whoever has been fighting for playing time.
So I would expect something along those lines from him in 2023. Whether that keeps him in the starting lineup everyday, I don’t know, but I think its likely. Burleson and another guy would both have to be doing substantially better offensively to take the LF and DH slots and keep O’Neill’s gold glove on the bench. It also doesn’t look like the kind of production that would make him an attractive option to hit 5th unless Contreras is having a really bad year, other than maybe vs lefties sometimes.
O’Neill will also be making 3rd year arb money, so if he gets pushed to part time status he may get moved at some point. That would be the worst case outcome though, so not the likely thing.
I expect him to be in the lineup most of the time hitting 6th or 7th.
We don’t know what the opening day roster will look like, but if it is unchanged, then Burleson, Yepez and the extra middle infielders (Edman, Donovan, Gorman, DeJong covering 2 defensive positions) will be fighting it out for PAs. I think that Donovan will be in the lineup almost every day either in a defensive position or at DH. Unless Gorman is in Memphis they will want him playing if he’s healthy, due to his perceived and hoped for offensive potential, which will not develop if he is on the bench.
It would take most of the DH reps to accommodate both Donovan and Gorman in the everyday lineup. That leaves Edman and DeJong fighting over SS, and Burleson and Yepez being mostly bench guys.
That’s how I see it looking early on if the roster remains as is. From there the worm starts turning and we se what happens.
I should add that, as far as the position player side of things, its a heck of a nice roster that could show us some enjoyable baseball.
VEB basically says that the Cards are willing to skimp on pitching to beef up the offense.
The Cardinals are Now an Offense-First Team
The Cardinals continue to show that they are willing to invest resources in offensive talent and are comfortable with the uncomfortable risk of an injury-prone and in-flux pitching staff. https://t.co/sLBjDCWvfk pic.twitter.com/RCPgDpBRLd
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) December 17, 2022
“Our pitching has a chance to be good next year.”
True enough. Almost everyone has an age or injury question mark hovering over his head, but when they take the bump they do have solid track records of effectiveness.
Career ERA+
Flaherty 119
Wainwright 118
Mikolas 114 with St. Louis
Hudson 112
Monty 110
GAP
Matz 94Jake Woodford has made 10 solid MLB starts (3.77 ERA) but is not included here for obvious reasons. And that touches on the pachyderm in the room: there’s zero depth beyond the above group, and we do NOT want the manager to start using relievers as starters again. (Refresher: last year, 13 starts to the combo of Naughton, Hicks, Thompson, Oviedo, for a 6.65 ERA and 3.1 innings per start, before Mo saved his backside with the slick pair of Trade Deadline acquisitions.)
What the pitching staff really needs in order to be above average, is to have a large pleasant surprise. Like Liberatore or Connor Thomas or Gordon Graceffo emerging by June as a viable #3/4 MLB starter. Unlikely but not implausible.
A lot has to go right for our rotation to be good, but it could happen. I want to see Flaherty on fire. I want Wainwright to pull a last solid year out of that body and arm. I want to see some guys emerge from the rabble of hopefuls, toe the rubber and seize the day. I don’t want Cardinals watching from the couch come October. I’m getting old and grumpy and I’m tired of waiting for another flag.
Goldy, Arenado, PDJ and Contreras make more this season combined, than the 13 highest paid players on the pitching staff combined.
That’s the math…and counting his deferred dough, 40-something pitcher Adam Wainwright will make more than Edman, Donovan, Gorman, Yepez, Nootbaar, Carlson, and O’Neill combined. Much more, in fact. So there’s lots of ways to parse salary commitments.
Anyway, on principle I want position players to get the lion’s share of the payroll, as they’re more reliable contributors in general than pitchers. The real trouble is, the Cards haven’t produced good starting pitchers for themselves over the past 3 or 4 years. Just Alcantara and Gallen, for other franchises. Sigh.
Runs scored sells tickets. Chicks dig the long ball.
Pitching wins in the postseason while MVP-1 and MVP-3 get shut down.
This club is built to sell tickets in the regular season.
With Spring Training here and no more moves expected I don’t know what the “regular” line-up may be, but I’d use.
Vs. RHP
1. Donovan 2B (L)
2. Edman SS (S)
3. Goldschmidt 1B (R)
4. Arenado 3B (R)
5. Nootbaar RF (L)
6. Contreras C (R)
7. Gorman DH (L)
8. O’Neill LF (R)
9. Carlson CF (S)DeJong IF (R), Yepez 1B/LF (R), Burleson 1B/LF/RF (L), Knizner C (R)
Vs. LHP
1. Nootbaar RF (L)
2. Edman SS (S)
3. Goldschmidt 1B (R)
4. Arenado 3B (R)
5. O’Neill LF (R)
6. Contreras C (R)
7. Yepez DH (R)
8. Donovan 2B (L)
9. Carlson CF (S)DeJong, Gorman, Burleson, Knizner
I’d say that’s probably the way things pan out to get underway, Bling. If it were up to me, I’d try moving Contreras down a slot or two and I also think at some point in the season Edman will get quite a few looks in the lead-off slot.
Well Rats, he looks just like a young Wayne Nooton and you have to always keep in mind that he’s none other than “The Nootz”…Haha!
I’m still entirely convinced that at some point during the season we need a guy named Manny in the line-up…
You posters are really counting on Nootbaar. I guess I must ask – what has he ever done so far???
Look up Cardinals stats for last year and sort by highest OBP. The top 4 guys are Goldy, NA, Donovan and Nootbaar. Its not hard to imagine that the highest on base percentage guys will be at the top of the lineup this year since they were last year.
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