Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Thanks for correcting my Chaim Bloom timeline, 25. (His Wikipedia page was somewhat misleading.) I will amend his Tampa grade from F+ to a solid D, same as his Red Sox grade.
“His tenure with the Rays started at a bit of a poor point (20th ranked farm system in 2014 per BA) and a below .500 record, and ended with them having a top 5 system and built the division winner in 2019 and the pennant winner in 2020.”
Thanks for the response, 25. I appreciate the thoroughness.
Just to clarify, the Tampa Bay Rays went 77-85 in Bloom’s first year as VP. Which was awful, given that he inherited an excellent base of MLB talent: In the previous four seasons they won 96, 91, 90, and 92 games. (They made the playoffs in three of those four seasons.) In a dramatic reversal of fortune, Bloom’s first four Tampa teams all finished with losing records — Joe Maddon by the way was manager for Chaim Bloom’s first losing season, then bailed to take the cub job.
Bloom’s fifth and sixth teams won 90+ games, and he left the club in good enough shape to play nearly .600 baseball for the next four seasons, under someone else’s stewardship. He gets some partial credit for that, sure.
But here’s the thing: if he truly knew what he was doing in Tampa, he wouldn’t have dragged what was then a perennial 90+ win team down below .500 for four straight years. And if he leads the Cards to a string of losing seasons from 2026 through 2029, that will make him an abject failure regardless of budgets or ownership interference or anything else. And if he does in St. Louis what he did in Boston — three finishes in the cellar in four years, including his final season in Beantown, he’ll go down as the worst Redbird GM in a century. No matter how much he spruces up the farm system (which has been one of three or four most productive in the majors over the past 30 years, even without good old Chaim Bloom).
———————————————-
“With the Red Sox, he was hired with the imperative to cut payroll and build the farm (which was ranked 30th in 2019). He had to do some unpopular things (I think the Betts trade was basically forced on him) but did turn the farm around.”
Agreed, absolutely, the Betts trade was under duress from ownership. But a substantial percentage of baseball trades are under duress of one type or another; and for generational talent Mookie Betts, Bloom’s return (from his good buddy Andrew Friedman by the way) was fairly pathetic. An average regular, a below-average semi-regular, and a top 100 prospect in Jeter Downs who completely busted.
Look, maybe Bloom has a good trade or two on his resume. I’m not a student of his career. (The Sonny Gray trade doesn’t count. That’s a salary dump that garnered a sub-mediocre redundancy in Rich Fitts, and a talented but infinitely breakable Brandon Clarke. That’s somewhere between a C- and C+. Factor in the 20 million bucks the Birds threw in, and the grade drops to D or D-.)
—————————————————-
Lastly, I want to apologize, Brian, for the tone of my response to your remark about how to best judge a GM. I was way too snotty. Didn’t mean to be, but there you have it.
“I seem to recall Bloom working somewhere else before Boston where he was really successful at for nearly a decade.”
Bloom was VP or Senior VP for six years in the Tampa Bay organization. As in Boston, the team got worse when he took over and better after he left. In Tampa they made the playoffs once in six years under his stewardship. In Boston, once in four years. That is an awful track record, in an era where 40% of teams make the playoffs.
And again, he inherited strong teams in both cities. He hasn’t executed any re-builds. He has only lowered payrolls and/or made teams worse. He is a failure.
We could argue how much of the blame he deserves for his failures in Boston and Tampa. But I do not believe there is any reasonable argument about whether he failed in those places or not.
——————————————————–
“Seems there could be a better method to judge a guy than by the team’s place in the standings.”
At the risk of stating the grotesquely obvious, in sports the objective is to win. If Bloom were the CEO or CFO, then his job would be to maximize profits. But as a GM (or its equivalent) his job is to win games — to put the manager in the best possible position to win games.
Of course, any GM can’t be judged in a vacuum. Some inherit stronger teams than others, some have much more resources than others. Nevertheless, the job is to win, and Bloom has done a poor job of that over ten years with two other organizations.
But I want VERY badly for him to win in St. Louis, so I would LOVE for anyone to give me hope. Please, I implore you to give me hope, give me a reason to expect something positive to come from the Bloom Era. Not faith, not hollow optimism. A real reason.
“Amazing what you can get for $12 million these days.”
“CIF, that could also be the biggest bargain of the offseason in 10 months.”
—————————————————————-
Yeah, he could be a bargain. Or a bust. Or nearly anything in between. But let’s think about the most reasonable range of outcomes. Since the past is usually the most reliable predictor of the future, here are the dollar values per year that he’s been worth, according to Fangraphs:
2025 $6.4 million
2024 Zero
2023 $10.1 million
2022 $2.2 million
2021 $4.1 million
2020 $4.0 million
2019 $7.7 millionPretty terrible. I mean, I knew it was going to be *bad* — but not *this* bad. Then again, Chaim Bloom led the Red Sox to three last-place finishes in his four years in charge there. So why should we expect anything smart from him? Because he’s buddies with Andrew Friedman?
Clarke 20
Pushard 50Clarke has already had Tommy John surgery, two separate serious shoulder problems, and served time on the disabled list for blisters. Plus he couldn’t get High-A batters out at age 22, where he walked 25 men in 28 innings. I don’t care if he throws 100, 150, or 200 miles an hour. He’s a long, long, longshot.
Jeff Kent age 24-29: 106 OPS+ (Best year was 111 at age 26.)
Jeff Kent age 30-37: 134 OPS+
Jeff Kent turned 30 in 1998, which was the year his teammate Barry Bonds began his illegal PED regimen. But maybe that’s just a coincidence.
Honorable Mention:
Noah Mendlinger
Juan Garcia
Alan Reyes
Yeferson Portolatin
Chase HeathAmong the 746 Dominican Summer League batters with at least 50 plate appearances, Portolatin posted the highest walk rate at nearly 30%. So maybe he’s too passive; but maybe he has an unusually discerning eye at the dish. (Probably some of each.) The switch-hitting keystoner has an okay defensive rep, and he swiped 23 bases in 27 tries, in just 40 games played. His excellent OPS+ of 145 was second only to Sebastian Dos Santos among DSL Redbirds.
Backstop Chase Heath only got 58 trips to the plate after being drafted in the 20th round out of Central Mizzou — but he hit very, very well in those 58 PA’s, and very, very well in college, and very, very well in two tries against summer league competition. Fun fact: last two years of college, he homered 25 times with just 27 whiffs. Also, homered in 3 of his last 7 games for Palm Beach, all at Roger Dean Stadium. Real sleeper.
“I wish they would have Elissalt dial the FB back a couple MPH and work on control. Placement within the zone. Working in, out, up, down. Work in secondaries, change speed. Find a way to get batters out besides trying to throw it past them.”
Amen. But unfortunately the new super-modern Cards seem to be obsessed with velocity & movement. Not preoccupied with it, obsessed with it. To the detriment of pitcher development.
“That is a nice reminder, mudville. One could argue that the Cardinals would have won the ’81 World Series if the season had stayed one season instead of being broken into two seasons. We will never know.”
And one could argue that the Birds woulda won the ’85 Series if not for Don Denkinger. And won the ’87 Series if not for the air current manipulations in the Metrodome, where the Twins of course won all four home games in the World Series. Link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story?id=1585964
Not that I’m bitter.
My earlier quote:
“Recall that halfway through the 2025 season, Derrick Goold told us that based upon his information from Mo, Bloom, and the front office, the club planned to invest little or nothing in free agents. (And I don’t think anyone here expects the club to add payroll via trade.)”And there was this response:
“Yes, I recall that, however, in the past few weeks, Bloom indicated the Cardinals would be spending at 2025 levels. If that is the case, the Cardinals have $38 million for free agency, and if they trade Nootbaar, Donovan and Romero, that would free up another $15 million.”
If Bloom said that, I believe he’s a big fat liar, plain & simple. But the question is, does anybody have a link to a direct quote from Bloom — or anyone in the organization, or any respected journalist — to indicate that the Cards are planning to spend (on the 26-man roster) at 2025 levels in 2026? Thanks in advance!
“Your standard for ‘bad’ is a little puzzling. Koperniak had a .784 OPS in Memphis in 2023 after he was called up. It took him a little time to get adjusted, but once he did, he was pretty good the last two months (0.884 OPS, 22 BB, 23 Ks).”
Yeah, you kinda caught me there, 25. I’d meant to type “bad for a corner outfielder,” but then I saw that Koperniak did play a little center field last year (as he seems to do every season, upon investigation) so I removed the bit about corner outfield — but sloppily left in the “bad” descriptor.
As far as Memphis goes, Matt had a 97 OPS+ in ’23 and a breakout 128 in 2024…but then dropped off precipitously to an 85 this year at age 27. If he’d maintained his solid 2024 performance this season, I’d be much more optimistic about his MLB chances, in terms of both opportunity and performance.
Or to put it another way, if coming out of Spring Training there is a playing time choice between Koppy and Nathan Church, I think and hope the latter would get first shot. Church was excellent in AAA at age 24 (144 OPS+) and Steamer projects him to be a 95 OPS+ in the majors in 2026 (Koppy projects at 80).
#43 Noah Mendlinger
#44 Miguel Hernandez
#45 Michael Watson
#46 Juan GarciaThere were 176 pitchers in the Dominican Summer League who threw at least 35 innings in 2025, and Juan Garcia was 2nd overall in K/BB at 9.50, and also 2nd in walk rate at 0.76 per 9 innings. Good pitcher’s physique at 6’2″ and 187, and he’s a young kid who won’t turn 18 until the end of May, 2026.
——————————————————–
“It’s more than a little ridiculous that an older DSL outfielder with literally 0 pedigree is in and a guy who’s on the 40-man with runway to play in the majors this year is not. What are the odds that Lucena outproduces Koperniak on the big league level…1%, maybe?”
I’d say it’s 20-30% that Lucena has more career WAR than Koperniak. (If someone offered me 10-1 odds, I’d certainly take it.) And as a practical matter, I don’t see a path to StL playing time for Matt K. unless multiple outfielders are dealt or demoted. The man was bad in AAA at age 25, then very good at 26, then bad again in 2025 at age 27. It’s just not a track record that demands MLB playing time.
For me, Lucena has perhaps a 3-5% chance to someday be an above-average MLB starter for a few years. And I’d put Koppy’s chance significantly below that. They’re both longshots, for different reasons, but Lucena has some visible upside for me.
Thanks for the responses, everyone who did so. I’ll try not to overly ramble with my rebuttals. 😉
“Houston did very little to shed money during their tank. You keep saying tanking, as you’ve mentioned and it’s absolutely not a ‘tank’.”
Let’s fact-check that first point. Astros Opening Day payroll, per Cot’s Contracts:
2009 $103 million
2010 $93 million
2011 $77 million
2012 $61 million
2013 $26 millionIn four years, Houston went from the #9 to #30 payroll. That’s payroll-shedding at its most extreme.
————————————————–
As for the “tanking” matter: it doesn’t really matter what we call it, the brand new Cardinal ownership philosophy. If anyone doesn’t want to call it tanking, that’s okay. I’ll just call it “making the team meaningfully worse to save a relatively inconsequential amount of dough.”
Trading Sonny Gray likely makes the team meaningfully worse, but it saved a substantial amount of money, so that doesn’t fit my description. Trading Arenado would save a chunk of cash. (Plus, replacing Arenado on the roster with Wetherholt might very well improve the club!) Dealing Willson Contreras would probably make the team a little worse — Burleson seems to be getting better as a batsman but he’s basically a platoon guy, and not as deft afield as Contreras — but it would save a fair bit of money.
Donovan does not have a ready replacement. Not in talent or positional flexibility. Trading him would cost 2-3 games in the standings, by my estimation. Winning 2-3 fewer games qualifies as “meaningfully worse.” He’s a 3-4 WAR guy and his potential backfill guys would be Arenado, Gorman, Church, Walker, pretty much 1-WAR guys right now. (Actually, Church looks quite a bit better than that, but I don’t think Marmol will play him much anyway, so he’s more or less theoretical.)
And trading Brendan would save the $400MM revenue club a grand total of around 5 million bucks. Whoopee. For a franchise with $400MM in revenues, anything under 8-10 million qualifies as “inconsequential.”
———————————————–
“This team is not going to be a legitimate competitor in those 2 years. The minor league system is very sub-par. Trading Donovan now is his highest value and a chance to bring in legitimate prospects to help that.”
The first sentence is hard to refute, without defining terms. To some fans, a legit competitor might mean a true-talent 90+ win team. In that case, I would say they cannot be that in 2026, but can in 2027, by retaining Donovan, trading Arenado, and removing both Gorman & Walker from the MLB roster either via trade or until they thrive in Triple-A, including a profound improvement in pitch selection, and making a few small, smart additions to their pitching staff.
You say “the minor league system is very sub-par.” This is as accurate as the Astros payroll observation. The Cardinal farm system is distinctly above average right now. Fangraphs has them #2 in the sport, which is too high by perhaps 5-7 slots. But it’s good-to-very good. Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
——————————————————-
“Donovan is the kind of player you want when you have a couple MOTOs to build around, which we don’t, and won’t within Donovan’s Cardinal tenure.”
The Cards do already have one MOTO bat, and his name is Ivan Herrera. Think I’m lying? Check it out:
In 2025, Herrera ranked 20th in all of baseball with a 137 OPS+ (actually wRC+, but that’s for nerds and they’re effectively the same thing.) (Minimum 400 PA’s.)
Across 2024/2025, Herrera is 22nd in MLB at 134 (min. 600 PA’s). And from 2023-25, Ivan rates 19th at 133 (min. 750).
Here are some other names and their 2023-25 numbers. Kyle Schwarber 135, Jose Ramirez 132, Cal Raleigh 133, Alonso 128, Lindor 129, Devers 132, Mookie 136. Oh, and Willson Contreras, 129. Nice bunch of bats, huh? So just in terms of hitting prowess, not durability or RBI opportunities, from 2023-2025, Herrera + Contreras roughly equaled…well, pick any two of the above. Now, Ivan Herrera has not established himself like any of the above guys, of course; but at 25 he’s also a lot younger than them. And already really good at hitting.
Anyway, Donovan’s just a very good player. His value is the same, whether he’s the best or worst or 4th-best player on the roster. And he’s very cheap, and will be again next year. He’s a keeper.
“Trading Donovan makes sense if you can get good future players for him.”
Well, what are the chances of that? Chaim Bloom is the guy who was in Boston when they were slashing payroll, and he traded a generational talent in Mookie Betts and pretty much got garbage in return. One mediocre player in Verdugo, one sub-mediocre in Wong, and one bust in Jeter Downs.
“Trading Donovan all depends on what they can get for him. If they can trade Donovan for a #2 or a #3 pitcher that they can drop into the Cardinals’ starting rotation right away, they almost have to do it, IMO.”
Agreed, sure. But no team is trading #2 or #3 starter for Donovan. Because the team trading for Brendan will be a team trying to improve right now, and nobody like that has a surplus of very good starting MLB pitchers to trade from. Because, well, nobody anywhere has a surplus of very good starting MLB pitchers.
And speaking of potential trade partners, the Pirates are in the market for Donovan, per MLB Trade Rumors. The Pirates, for God’s sake. You see, even the loser cheapskate Pirates know that he’s really good and really cheap. (But not cheap enough for Redbird ownership, apparently.)
“They have been trying to ‘thread the needle’ for years and it caught up with them. ‘Plan A’ didn’t work, so perhaps it is time for ‘Plan B’.”
If Plan B means making yourself worse on purpose, then NO, it isn’t time for that. The time for that would’ve been about a dozen years ago. As I and others have mentioned, tanking won’t work like it did for the cubs and Astros, because due to CBA changes, the tanking team does not get the same budgetary advantages as before. It won’t work.
The owners want to slash payroll? They want to take their $398 million in revenue (2024 numbers), cry poor, and run a bottom ten payroll? Fine. I hate it, but fine. It’s a betrayal of fan trust, but fine. I outlined a plan earlier in this thread that accomplishes just that objective. So trade Arenado. Trade Contreras. But don’t trade Donovan, or Winn, or Herrera, or any other very good, inexpensive Cardinal. (Not that there are many more besides those three.)
Here’s how I look at the Donovan situation.
Donovan is a 3-4 WAR player who will make just 5-6 million bucks in 2026, and a few million more in 2027. If the Cardinals could tomorrow sign in free agency a 3-4 WAR outfielder or starting pitcher for two years and a grand total of roughly $15MM, they would have to be crazy NOT to do so. Right?
The Birds are basically an average team right now. You trade Arenado to make room for Wetherholt, and maybe trade Contreras to put Burly at first base. Then you sign a Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn type of inexpensive veteran righty starter, because the current StL pitching coach/manager actually did a fine job with those two guys.
If Wetherholt is very good, as he might be, you have a slightly above average team — with a much, much lower payroll than in 2025. Then a small shrewd midseason addition at the trade deadline, and you’re a wildcard contender at the very least.
There’s your rudimentary blueprint for gutting payroll while still improving the team, and maybe even getting to October baseball. But trading Brendan Donovan and/or gracing Ollie with a contract extension sends such a horrible message to the fans, that attendance will continue to plummet. Viewership, too, in my case.
#40 Yaxson Lucena
#41 Noah Mendlinger
#42 Miguel HernandezLucena walked 50% more often than he struck out, posted a 141 OPS+ with a reasonable repeatable .323 BABIP, reportedly plays a solid right field, and finally, took one for the team 10 times in 42 games, so he’s tough. Add it up, and that’s a .442 OBP guy with good gap power, who was a bit young for his league — and offers contributions beyond his bat. Yeah, it was the DSL. That’s why he’s top 40 instead of top 20.
#37 Yaxson Lucena
#38 Noah Mendlinger
#39 Miguel HernandezUtilityman Mendlinger’s own organization hates him, sticking him in AA for three years; but once they finally gave him his overdue promotion he hit quite well for Memphis in his one-month look-see (127 OPS+ and a mere 8% K rate).
Shortstop Hernandez fanned too much for the DSL, but was quite young — he’ll still be 17 on Opening Day, 2026 — and showed pop, patience, and speed.
“I’m starting to think this entire dire state of affairs with our Cardinals is merely just a bad dream……hopefully I’ll wake up soon.”
I could not agree more, Pugs. I hated the Bloom hire from the start and now I…what’s stronger than “hate”?
Marmol is cheaper than a real manager. Bloom is here to make more dough for ownership by minimizing all payroll. In that double-context the idiotic move makes perfect sense. And Cardinal fans can look forward to nothing for at least two or three more seasons.
I give retroactive thanks for all the years that the DeWitt family ran a payroll commensurate with their revenues and really, really tried to win. Now they can jump in a lake.
#34 Kenley Hunter
#35 Hancel Rincon
#36 Yaxson LucenaVenzuelan teen Lucena cut his strikeout rate nearly in half from ’24 to ’25 while still hitting for decent power, and in right field he’s posted approximately one Baserunner Kill (outfield assist, for the traditionalists) per four games played in his very brief career. Yes you read that correctly, one per four games.
“Seriously, they can’t go into 2026 with a payroll south of at least $125M right? After Arenado, Donnie and JoJo are gone, that puts them at roughly $77M.”
Why would the club trade Donovan or Romero? I mean, unless the goal is to be as terrible as possible in the short term — and that makes ZERO sense as a long term strategy, because tanking (like the Astros & cubs did 12-14 years ago) does NOT yield remotely similar benefits now, due to changes over the past decade in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Back when the ‘Stros and cubs tanked, they gained enormous budgetary advantages in both the amateur domestic draft, and international player market. Those advantages have since been flattened out to a great degree. So tanking is essentially obsolete as a viable mechanism for any team trying to actually win baseball games, over any timeframe.
If anything the Cards should try to sign Brendan tomorrow to a reasonable 3-5 year contract with a club option or two at the end. He’s got two years before free agency and made less than $3MM in 2025! So there’s no way he or his agent would turn down $15MM per year for 3-5 seasons. And Romero, who also made a relative pittance in 2025 at just over 2 million bucks, has been very healthy and effective since joining the Cards in 2022. So sign him for 2-3 years, guaranteed.
Lugo in the minors 4.27 ERA
Leahy 5.51Not comparable, I wouldn’t say. With a 4.27 ERA, in the rotation or ‘pen, you help your team win, at least a little. With a 5.51, you get released.
“I am not wild about the Leahy plan, either, but relievers to starters happens more frequently than some think. Here are some current examples:
Garrett Crochet
Michael King
Clay Holmes did it this year for the Mets”I apologize to all readers here. I guess I did a lousy job of articulating my point, so I’ll try once more.
Failed starting minor league pitchers do NOT become good relievers and then return to starting and succeed. That was my very specific point, because that’s exactly who Kyle Leahy is: a guy who failed in the minors as a starting pitcher. Resoundingly.Clay Holmes pitched in the minors to a solid 3.63 ERA — nearly two runs lower than Kyle Leahy. Michael King was even better than Holmes, with an outstanding 3.07 ERA in his minor league career.
Kyle Leahy is a carbon-based life form, which is about all he has in common with Holmes & King.
Kyle Leahy isn’t a successful MLB pitcher who happens to be a reliever. He’s a successful MLB pitcher because he switched to reliever. This isn’t conjecture. It is the entire weight of baseball history.Crochet is a fascinating case for sure — the dream scenario for Tanner Franklin fans, I guess you could say — but he (Crochet) was never a failed starter either, of course. Even back through his collegiate career, he was primarily a bullpen guy.
“It’s not a long shot that Leahy could be our best SP the first half. As long as he doesn’t forget how to relieve, where’s the risk Bob?”
Here’s the risk.
Marmol watches Leahy in Spring Training and sees an extremely inconsistent but occasionally effective starting pitcher — just like the 2025 versions of Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas. So Marmol decides that Leahy has the raw talent to be a starting pitcher and sends him to the mound over and over in 2026, despite an ERA around 5.00, or maybe worse. There are no obviously superior alternatives, so this goes on and on, perhaps for two or three years, or however long Ollie is permitted to (mis)manage the club.And so a very good reliever is transformed via terrible decision-making into a bad starter. Bad starters become good relievers all the time. It’s practically an MLB tradition. But they do NOT go back to starting and have success. Maybe someone has, but I cannot name a single example. I invite the optimists out there to do so.
“I will be surprised if they spend the $20 mil on anyone, their payroll cut in the last 2 years is pretty drastic.”
This is correct, of course. As in Boston, Bloom was hired to cut player payroll, full stop. Recall that halfway through the 2025 season, Derrick Goold told us that based upon his information from Mo, Bloom, and the front office, the club planned to invest little or nothing in free agents. (And I don’t think anyone here expects the club to add payroll via trade.)
That said, given the present roster, I actually DO think they’ll sign some free agent veteran starter along the lines of the Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson inkings of a few years ago, as insurance of sorts. But cheaper and worse. Probably in the 5-7 million range. I honestly wouldn’t put it past them to bring back Mikolas on some incentive-laden contract.
Rotation then becomes Liberatore, McGreevy, Fitts, Pallante, Mr.X., with Quinn Mathews in the wings at Memphis. I expect and pray that 28-year-old Kyle Leahy is so awful as a starter in Spring Training that the club promptly abandons this misguided return to starting, where he was a dismal failure in the minors. The man has at long last found a niche where he’s very good, so leave him there for Heaven’s sake.
