[Bob Reed]

“Your standard for ‘bad’ is a little puzzling. Koperniak had a .784 OPS in Memphis in 2023 after he was called up. It took him a little time to get adjusted, but once he did, he was pretty good the last two months (0.884 OPS, 22 BB, 23 Ks).”

Yeah, you kinda caught me there, 25. I’d meant to type “bad for a corner outfielder,” but then I saw that Koperniak did play a little center field last year (as he seems to do every season, upon investigation) so I removed the bit about corner outfield — but sloppily left in the “bad” descriptor.

As far as Memphis goes, Matt had a 97 OPS+ in ’23 and a breakout 128 in 2024…but then dropped off precipitously to an 85 this year at age 27. If he’d maintained his solid 2024 performance this season, I’d be much more optimistic about his MLB chances, in terms of both opportunity and performance.

Or to put it another way, if coming out of Spring Training there is a playing time choice between Koppy and Nathan Church, I think and hope the latter would get first shot. Church was excellent in AAA at age 24 (144 OPS+) and Steamer projects him to be a 95 OPS+ in the majors in 2026 (Koppy projects at 80).

[Bob Reed]

#43 Noah Mendlinger
#44 Miguel Hernandez
#45 Michael Watson
#46 Juan Garcia

There were 176 pitchers in the Dominican Summer League who threw at least 35 innings in 2025, and Juan Garcia was 2nd overall in K/BB at 9.50, and also 2nd in walk rate at 0.76 per 9 innings. Good pitcher’s physique at 6’2″ and 187, and he’s a young kid who won’t turn 18 until the end of May, 2026.

——————————————————–

“It’s more than a little ridiculous that an older DSL outfielder with literally 0 pedigree is in and a guy who’s on the 40-man with runway to play in the majors this year is not. What are the odds that Lucena outproduces Koperniak on the big league level…1%, maybe?”

I’d say it’s 20-30% that Lucena has more career WAR than Koperniak. (If someone offered me 10-1 odds, I’d certainly take it.) And as a practical matter, I don’t see a path to StL playing time for Matt K. unless multiple outfielders are dealt or demoted. The man was bad in AAA at age 25, then very good at 26, then bad again in 2025 at age 27. It’s just not a track record that demands MLB playing time.

For me, Lucena has perhaps a 3-5% chance to someday be an above-average MLB starter for a few years. And I’d put Koppy’s chance significantly below that. They’re both longshots, for different reasons, but Lucena has some visible upside for me.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the responses, everyone who did so. I’ll try not to overly ramble with my rebuttals. 😉

“Houston did very little to shed money during their tank. You keep saying tanking, as you’ve mentioned and it’s absolutely not a ‘tank’.”

Let’s fact-check that first point. Astros Opening Day payroll, per Cot’s Contracts:

2009 $103 million
2010 $93 million
2011 $77 million
2012 $61 million
2013 $26 million

In four years, Houston went from the #9 to #30 payroll. That’s payroll-shedding at its most extreme.

————————————————–

As for the “tanking” matter: it doesn’t really matter what we call it, the brand new Cardinal ownership philosophy. If anyone doesn’t want to call it tanking, that’s okay. I’ll just call it “making the team meaningfully worse to save a relatively inconsequential amount of dough.”

Trading Sonny Gray likely makes the team meaningfully worse, but it saved a substantial amount of money, so that doesn’t fit my description. Trading Arenado would save a chunk of cash. (Plus, replacing Arenado on the roster with Wetherholt might very well improve the club!) Dealing Willson Contreras would probably make the team a little worse — Burleson seems to be getting better as a batsman but he’s basically a platoon guy, and not as deft afield as Contreras — but it would save a fair bit of money.

Donovan does not have a ready replacement. Not in talent or positional flexibility. Trading him would cost 2-3 games in the standings, by my estimation. Winning 2-3 fewer games qualifies as “meaningfully worse.” He’s a 3-4 WAR guy and his potential backfill guys would be Arenado, Gorman, Church, Walker, pretty much 1-WAR guys right now. (Actually, Church looks quite a bit better than that, but I don’t think Marmol will play him much anyway, so he’s more or less theoretical.)

And trading Brendan would save the $400MM revenue club a grand total of around 5 million bucks. Whoopee. For a franchise with $400MM in revenues, anything under 8-10 million qualifies as “inconsequential.”

———————————————–

“This team is not going to be a legitimate competitor in those 2 years. The minor league system is very sub-par. Trading Donovan now is his highest value and a chance to bring in legitimate prospects to help that.”

The first sentence is hard to refute, without defining terms. To some fans, a legit competitor might mean a true-talent 90+ win team. In that case, I would say they cannot be that in 2026, but can in 2027, by retaining Donovan, trading Arenado, and removing both Gorman & Walker from the MLB roster either via trade or until they thrive in Triple-A, including a profound improvement in pitch selection, and making a few small, smart additions to their pitching staff.

You say “the minor league system is very sub-par.” This is as accurate as the Astros payroll observation. The Cardinal farm system is distinctly above average right now. Fangraphs has them #2 in the sport, which is too high by perhaps 5-7 slots. But it’s good-to-very good. Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

——————————————————-

“Donovan is the kind of player you want when you have a couple MOTOs to build around, which we don’t, and won’t within Donovan’s Cardinal tenure.”

The Cards do already have one MOTO bat, and his name is Ivan Herrera. Think I’m lying? Check it out:

In 2025, Herrera ranked 20th in all of baseball with a 137 OPS+ (actually wRC+, but that’s for nerds and they’re effectively the same thing.) (Minimum 400 PA’s.)

Across 2024/2025, Herrera is 22nd in MLB at 134 (min. 600 PA’s). And from 2023-25, Ivan rates 19th at 133 (min. 750).

Here are some other names and their 2023-25 numbers. Kyle Schwarber 135, Jose Ramirez 132, Cal Raleigh 133, Alonso 128, Lindor 129, Devers 132, Mookie 136. Oh, and Willson Contreras, 129. Nice bunch of bats, huh? So just in terms of hitting prowess, not durability or RBI opportunities, from 2023-2025, Herrera + Contreras roughly equaled…well, pick any two of the above. Now, Ivan Herrera has not established himself like any of the above guys, of course; but at 25 he’s also a lot younger than them. And already really good at hitting.

Anyway, Donovan’s just a very good player. His value is the same, whether he’s the best or worst or 4th-best player on the roster. And he’s very cheap, and will be again next year. He’s a keeper.

[Bob Reed]

“Trading Donovan makes sense if you can get good future players for him.”

Well, what are the chances of that? Chaim Bloom is the guy who was in Boston when they were slashing payroll, and he traded a generational talent in Mookie Betts and pretty much got garbage in return. One mediocre player in Verdugo, one sub-mediocre in Wong, and one bust in Jeter Downs.

“Trading Donovan all depends on what they can get for him. If they can trade Donovan for a #2 or a #3 pitcher that they can drop into the Cardinals’ starting rotation right away, they almost have to do it, IMO.”

Agreed, sure. But no team is trading #2 or #3 starter for Donovan. Because the team trading for Brendan will be a team trying to improve right now, and nobody like that has a surplus of very good starting MLB pitchers to trade from. Because, well, nobody anywhere has a surplus of very good starting MLB pitchers.

And speaking of potential trade partners, the Pirates are in the market for Donovan, per MLB Trade Rumors. The Pirates, for God’s sake. You see, even the loser cheapskate Pirates know that he’s really good and really cheap. (But not cheap enough for Redbird ownership, apparently.)

“They have been trying to ‘thread the needle’ for years and it caught up with them. ‘Plan A’ didn’t work, so perhaps it is time for ‘Plan B’.”

If Plan B means making yourself worse on purpose, then NO, it isn’t time for that. The time for that would’ve been about a dozen years ago. As I and others have mentioned, tanking won’t work like it did for the cubs and Astros, because due to CBA changes, the tanking team does not get the same budgetary advantages as before. It won’t work.

The owners want to slash payroll? They want to take their $398 million in revenue (2024 numbers), cry poor, and run a bottom ten payroll? Fine. I hate it, but fine. It’s a betrayal of fan trust, but fine. I outlined a plan earlier in this thread that accomplishes just that objective. So trade Arenado. Trade Contreras. But don’t trade Donovan, or Winn, or Herrera, or any other very good, inexpensive Cardinal. (Not that there are many more besides those three.)

[Bob Reed]

Here’s how I look at the Donovan situation.

Donovan is a 3-4 WAR player who will make just 5-6 million bucks in 2026, and a few million more in 2027. If the Cardinals could tomorrow sign in free agency a 3-4 WAR outfielder or starting pitcher for two years and a grand total of roughly $15MM, they would have to be crazy NOT to do so. Right?

The Birds are basically an average team right now. You trade Arenado to make room for Wetherholt, and maybe trade Contreras to put Burly at first base. Then you sign a Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn type of inexpensive veteran righty starter, because the current StL pitching coach/manager actually did a fine job with those two guys.

If Wetherholt is very good, as he might be, you have a slightly above average team — with a much, much lower payroll than in 2025. Then a small shrewd midseason addition at the trade deadline, and you’re a wildcard contender at the very least.

There’s your rudimentary blueprint for gutting payroll while still improving the team, and maybe even getting to October baseball. But trading Brendan Donovan and/or gracing Ollie with a contract extension sends such a horrible message to the fans, that attendance will continue to plummet. Viewership, too, in my case.

[Bob Reed]

#40 Yaxson Lucena
#41 Noah Mendlinger
#42 Miguel Hernandez

Lucena walked 50% more often than he struck out, posted a 141 OPS+ with a reasonable repeatable .323 BABIP, reportedly plays a solid right field, and finally, took one for the team 10 times in 42 games, so he’s tough. Add it up, and that’s a .442 OBP guy with good gap power, who was a bit young for his league — and offers contributions beyond his bat. Yeah, it was the DSL. That’s why he’s top 40 instead of top 20.

[Bob Reed]

#37 Yaxson Lucena
#38 Noah Mendlinger
#39 Miguel Hernandez

Utilityman Mendlinger’s own organization hates him, sticking him in AA for three years; but once they finally gave him his overdue promotion he hit quite well for Memphis in his one-month look-see (127 OPS+ and a mere 8% K rate).

Shortstop Hernandez fanned too much for the DSL, but was quite young — he’ll still be 17 on Opening Day, 2026 — and showed pop, patience, and speed.

[Bob Reed]

“I’m starting to think this entire dire state of affairs with our Cardinals is merely just a bad dream……hopefully I’ll wake up soon.”

I could not agree more, Pugs. I hated the Bloom hire from the start and now I…what’s stronger than “hate”?

Marmol is cheaper than a real manager. Bloom is here to make more dough for ownership by minimizing all payroll. In that double-context the idiotic move makes perfect sense. And Cardinal fans can look forward to nothing for at least two or three more seasons.

I give retroactive thanks for all the years that the DeWitt family ran a payroll commensurate with their revenues and really, really tried to win. Now they can jump in a lake.

[Bob Reed]

#34 Kenley Hunter
#35 Hancel Rincon
#36 Yaxson Lucena

Venzuelan teen Lucena cut his strikeout rate nearly in half from ’24 to ’25 while still hitting for decent power, and in right field he’s posted approximately one Baserunner Kill (outfield assist, for the traditionalists) per four games played in his very brief career. Yes you read that correctly, one per four games.

[Bob Reed]

“Seriously, they can’t go into 2026 with a payroll south of at least $125M right? After Arenado, Donnie and JoJo are gone, that puts them at roughly $77M.”

Why would the club trade Donovan or Romero? I mean, unless the goal is to be as terrible as possible in the short term — and that makes ZERO sense as a long term strategy, because tanking (like the Astros & cubs did 12-14 years ago) does NOT yield remotely similar benefits now, due to changes over the past decade in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Back when the ‘Stros and cubs tanked, they gained enormous budgetary advantages in both the amateur domestic draft, and international player market. Those advantages have since been flattened out to a great degree. So tanking is essentially obsolete as a viable mechanism for any team trying to actually win baseball games, over any timeframe.

If anything the Cards should try to sign Brendan tomorrow to a reasonable 3-5 year contract with a club option or two at the end. He’s got two years before free agency and made less than $3MM in 2025! So there’s no way he or his agent would turn down $15MM per year for 3-5 seasons. And Romero, who also made a relative pittance in 2025 at just over 2 million bucks, has been very healthy and effective since joining the Cards in 2022. So sign him for 2-3 years, guaranteed.

[Bob Reed]

Lugo in the minors 4.27 ERA
Leahy 5.51

Not comparable, I wouldn’t say. With a 4.27 ERA, in the rotation or ‘pen, you help your team win, at least a little. With a 5.51, you get released.

“I am not wild about the Leahy plan, either, but relievers to starters happens more frequently than some think. Here are some current examples:

Garrett Crochet
Michael King
Clay Holmes did it this year for the Mets”

I apologize to all readers here. I guess I did a lousy job of articulating my point, so I’ll try once more.
Failed starting minor league pitchers do NOT become good relievers and then return to starting and succeed. That was my very specific point, because that’s exactly who Kyle Leahy is: a guy who failed in the minors as a starting pitcher. Resoundingly.

Clay Holmes pitched in the minors to a solid 3.63 ERA — nearly two runs lower than Kyle Leahy. Michael King was even better than Holmes, with an outstanding 3.07 ERA in his minor league career.

Kyle Leahy is a carbon-based life form, which is about all he has in common with Holmes & King.
Kyle Leahy isn’t a successful MLB pitcher who happens to be a reliever. He’s a successful MLB pitcher because he switched to reliever. This isn’t conjecture. It is the entire weight of baseball history.

Crochet is a fascinating case for sure — the dream scenario for Tanner Franklin fans, I guess you could say — but he (Crochet) was never a failed starter either, of course. Even back through his collegiate career, he was primarily a bullpen guy.

[Bob Reed]

“It’s not a long shot that Leahy could be our best SP the first half. As long as he doesn’t forget how to relieve, where’s the risk Bob?”

Here’s the risk.
Marmol watches Leahy in Spring Training and sees an extremely inconsistent but occasionally effective starting pitcher — just like the 2025 versions of Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas. So Marmol decides that Leahy has the raw talent to be a starting pitcher and sends him to the mound over and over in 2026, despite an ERA around 5.00, or maybe worse. There are no obviously superior alternatives, so this goes on and on, perhaps for two or three years, or however long Ollie is permitted to (mis)manage the club.

And so a very good reliever is transformed via terrible decision-making into a bad starter. Bad starters become good relievers all the time. It’s practically an MLB tradition. But they do NOT go back to starting and have success. Maybe someone has, but I cannot name a single example. I invite the optimists out there to do so.

[Bob Reed]

“I will be surprised if they spend the $20 mil on anyone, their payroll cut in the last 2 years is pretty drastic.”

This is correct, of course. As in Boston, Bloom was hired to cut player payroll, full stop. Recall that halfway through the 2025 season, Derrick Goold told us that based upon his information from Mo, Bloom, and the front office, the club planned to invest little or nothing in free agents. (And I don’t think anyone here expects the club to add payroll via trade.)

That said, given the present roster, I actually DO think they’ll sign some free agent veteran starter along the lines of the Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson inkings of a few years ago, as insurance of sorts. But cheaper and worse. Probably in the 5-7 million range. I honestly wouldn’t put it past them to bring back Mikolas on some incentive-laden contract.

Rotation then becomes Liberatore, McGreevy, Fitts, Pallante, Mr.X., with Quinn Mathews in the wings at Memphis. I expect and pray that 28-year-old Kyle Leahy is so awful as a starter in Spring Training that the club promptly abandons this misguided return to starting, where he was a dismal failure in the minors. The man has at long last found a niche where he’s very good, so leave him there for Heaven’s sake.

[Bob Reed]

“Payroll is now down from $117M to $102M for 2026.”

And team revenues were $400M, in 2024. Ownership used to equally prioritize profits and victories, but no more. Pretty much indifferent to the latter, in fact.

I am glad for Sonny, though. With a real MLB pitching coach and manager, he’s now my longshot betting choice for A.L. Cy Young in 2026.

Fitts projects even worse than Pallante in 2026, per Steamer. The southpaw Clarke has upside but is extremely unlikely to get there due to wildness + injuries. So it’s more or less a straight salary dump by my lights. Trading Nolan Arenado would clear opportunities for other talented guys. Trading Gray just throws in the towel on 2026 — after three consecutive seasons without October baseball under the Arch. Disgraceful.

[Bob Reed]

#31 Leonel Sequera
#32 Sebastian Dos Santos
#33 Kenley Hunter

Yeah, it’s a long wait for the DSL guys. (In 2017, Ivan Herrera posted a 151 OPS+ in the Dominican Summer League, and it was 2024 before he was a very good MLB hitter.) But Dos Santos may very well play on the left side of the infield long term, and Hunter has a good defensive rep in center field. So the upside for each is substantial.

An aside: the Cards’ top 4 DSL hitters were all just 17, and they averaged a stellar 149 OPS+ this year. It’s a very interesting quartet. I don’t think there’s a potential star there, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they get an above average regular plus a good bench guy from that foursome.

[Bob Reed]

#29 Leonel Sequera
#30 Sebastian Dos Santos

Among teenage starting pitchers in full season baseball, Sequera was 3rd in innings (108) and posted a solid 3.45 FIP. His heater is mid-90’s, he’s been healthy for two years, and there are no red flags in terms of walks, homers, etc.

Dos Santos was the sole 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League to register an OPS+ of 151 or better while walking more than whiffing and tallying a Speed Score of 7.7 or higher. It doesn’t make him the best prospect in the 50-team league or anything — but it does make him a prospect.

[Bob Reed]

#27 Leonel Sequera
#28 Sebastian Dos Santos

As Chitown articulated earlier, Dos Santos dominated the DSL at 17 while playing shortstop, stealing some bases, and walking more than whiffing. That’s a nifty skillset.

The tipping point for me was when I dug a bit deeper and found that SDS only struck out once in his last 50 trips to the plate. Hitting for average + hitting for power + not fanning = mastery. And when a farmhand can completely master a level of competition that he’s young for, that’s a big marker for future success.

[Bob Reed]

#23 Leo Sequera
#24 Andre Granillo

He doesn’t get my vote yet, but one note on Jack Gurevitch. His pro debut was a disaster, but batting at Palm Beach may have had an exaggerated effect on him. The samples are miniscule but check these splits:

Home: .378 OPS
Road: 1.033

[Bob Reed]

Now that you’ve mentioned Sebastian Dos Santos, ChiTown, I think one matter bears clarifying. Dos Santos when signed was listed at 6’0″ and 173 lbs. TCN Link: https://thecardinalnation.com/cardinals-announce-12-international-signings-to-open-2025-period/

But now all sources seem to list him at 140. I strongly suspect the 140 was from a year or two before he signed, and that he’s really around that 173 number. The 173 just makes so much more sense, especially because kids who weigh 140 pounds don’t whack 21 extra base hits in 38 games at any level above Pony League.

[Bob Reed]

#21 Leonel Sequera
#22 Andre Granillo

Andre is a bit like Nathan Church in a way. The righty reliever dominated AA and AAA, but was mediocre in MLB, and kinda sorta longish in the tooth. I think Granillo should (or at least could) be a solid 7th/8th inning guy by mid 2026. If nothing else, the man has been healthy: 65 IP this year, 68 innings last season, and 52-55 innings in the two years before that.

I really like the Kenly Hunter mention above, but for me it’s still just a wee bit early for DSL guys. Not much, just a little.

[Bob Reed]

#19 Nathan Church
#20 Leonel Sequera

At age 19 in full-season ball, Sequera made 24 starts this year with an excellent FIP of 3.45. Yeah, his ERA wasn’t so hot (4.33), and he only averaged 4 1/2 innings per start. But hey, Sequera still logged 30 more innings in 2025 alone than Tanner Franklin posted in his entire 3-year collegiate career.

It’s a mid-90’s fastball for Sequera, with a solid slider and (I suspect) an underrated straight change. I say that because he’s had distinct reverse splits each of the past two campaigns — lefty bats managed an OPS barely over .600 against Leo in both ’24 and ’25. It’s a cliche, I realize, but shutting down opposite-handed batters usually requires a good changeup. Youth, health, minimum daily requirement of velocity. I like him.

[Bob Reed]

#17 Nathan Church
#18 Braden Davis

Church fairly dominated AA and AAA at age 24 (excellent OPS and BB/K tally) and offers value both in the field and on the bases. I understand downgrading him for his mediocre pre-2025 hitting performance, but it feels like folks may also be overreacting to his micro-sample of 50something dismal AB’s in the majors.

Davis’ strikeout-to-base hit ratio was 3rd in all of the minors in 2025 among the 691 starters with 70+ innings pitched. First and second were uber-prospects Jonah Tong and Trey Yesavage.

[Bob Reed]

Winquest was 25 in AA, and Franklin had one of the best head coaches in the country and still couldn’t get college hitters out (career ERA 5.61, and 4.89 in 2025). So I don’t think much about either guy.

Davis in 2025 allowed just 58 hits in 110 innings, with 153 strikeouts. Those are tremendous numbers, obviously. Peoria & Palm Beach are highly sympathetic pitching environments, but even adjusting for that advantage, Davis had a very impressive campaign. But those 75 walks….

Pete Hansen has made all his starts for three years running, and guys like that sometimes have a breakthrough a bit later, like in their mid-late-20’s. Lefties, especially. So I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he’s a solid #4/5 MLB starter in a couple of years. Due to durability, Hansen’s a little more likely to be a starter long term — but Davis WAY more upside if he can remain a rotation piece.

[Bob Reed]

#15 Nathan Church
#16 Deniel Ortiz

I do like Braden Davis also — but he needs to fix that base-on-balls problem a bit more, to be a viable starting pitcher prospect. If he does get the walk rate down to, say, 4 per 9 IP like his last year of college ball, then look out. Because the strikeouts and suppression of longballs are excellent.

In his only pro season, Ortiz at age 20 posted a 152 OPS+ across Low-A and High-A (OBP north of .400 at both levels). Even without the steals (39 of 48), he’d be plenty worthy of votes at this slot.

[Bob Reed]

#13 Yairo Padilla
#14 Nathan Church

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