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Remember when there was so much hoopla about Oscar Taveras as a prospect? Let’s compare his AAA numbers in 2014 just before he got called up vs. those of Alec Burleson in 2022 just before he got called up.
OT – .318/.370/.502/.872
AB – .331/.372/.532/.905So why isn’t Burly getting the same hoopla? Is he being overshadowed in our anticipation by Jordan Walker?
Funny, I was thinking about Oscar Taveras earlier today. And now I see your thread Cranny. How old would Taveras be now, in his early 30s? Still perhaps in his prime?
r/Esteemed Rat
OT was born in June of 1992, I guess he’d be 30. Another comparison is size. OT as a LH hitter was 6’2″, 200lbs. Burleson as a LH hitter is 6’2″, 212 lbs.
Taveras was a year and a half younger, Cranny. That’s part of it.
And Oscar had already hit OK in Triple-A the year before that, with a slash line of .306/.341/.462.And then, OT was also considered a somewhat better defender & baserunner — not great at either, but better than Alec, who would probably be headed for DH or first base in most organizations. Although, depending on ballpark configurations, Burley could be presentable for some franchises in an outfield corner.
And finally, you gotta bear in mind everything that happened prior to their Triple-A performances. Taveras dominated at three pro levels before he got to AAA, and smoked Double-A pitching with a .950 OPS and mere 11% strikeout rate. When he was a month younger than Jordan Walker was this year.
So we see that (1)age, (2)total pro track record, and (3)baserunning/defense each favor Oscar. Alec Burleson is a worthy top 100 prospect, he is. But he’s also a bit one-dimensional and likely doesn’t hit southpaws well enough to be a true full-time starter. He’s properly ranked in the 70-80 range among all prospects, and probably headed for a 7-10 WAR career. Something like that.
So why isn’t Burly getting the same hoopla? Is he being overshadowed in our anticipation by Jordan Walker?
Burleson hasn’t done anything exceptional for his age…beating up AAA as a 23 year old is fairly common. Taveras was exceptional at A+ at 19 and AA at 20, much like Walker. At the time of his callup, he was over 2 years younger than Burleson at his callup.
Bottom line, Burleson could be a fine player, but the ceiling is nowhere near where Taveras’ ceiling was (nor where Walker’s ceiling is). I’d be happy if Burleson’s an above average hitting part time OF/DH, which is plenty good. That’s probably the likely place he ends up.
Burleson’s profile is different. He was drafted in 2020 so missed that whole summer of professional development. His first season as a pro in 2021, he started at high A Peoria, was promoted to AA Springfield, then was promoted again to AAA Memphis. He was at Memphis for 109 games in 2023 before being called up in only his second season. You talk about Taveras tearing it up in the low minors? That’s true. He was signed in 2009 and finally made it to the majors in mid season 2014. He had 5 1/2 seasons as a pro to develop.
That’s some real gymnastics there. I suppose that Burleson wasn’t developing at all during the last 7+ years?
Burleson is a fine prospect but he’s not in the same atmosphere that Taveras was. Burleson’s in the same value bucket as Carlson, Yepez, Nootbaar, Gorman, Donovan on this year’s team alone as 2-3 WAR guys. The loss of Taveras kick started a search that arguably is still going on.
It’s a poor comparison for a number of reasons. The Cards clearly were willing to trade him just recently so they probably aren’t as high on him as they were Taveras, either.
bc, you are correct that Burleson’s profile is different. Taveras was signed as a 16 year old in 2008 and played his first game as a professional shortly after his 17th birthday. He may have had 5 1/2 seasons as a pro but it is VERY unusual for young, foreign players to get to the majors very quick. He made his debut in the majors before his 22nd birthday, though.
At 16 years old, Burleson was still a sophomore in high school. After graduation, he had 3 college seasons and almost 2 full minor league seasons before making his major league debut at almost 24 years of age. In reality, he had almost 8 years to develop if you start counting at his age when Taveras signed his first contract.
Also, Taveras looked like the next Pujols for the Cardinals, at the time. He wasn’t going to hit as well as Pujols but he was supposed to better than any prospect we have had since then with a possible exception of Walker.
Burly didn’t do anything with the 50 PAs he got. There is no disputing that. But OT didn’t look that great when he came up either. Burleson did very well in 2021 but not like an unbelievable super prospect. Just a promising looking hitter. 2022 he and Gomez blasted off. It will be fun to see what happens. I did think Burleson looked pretty rough in left field. Not Chris Duncan (rip) rough, but rough.
Burleson’s profile is different.
This is a key point. High performance at relatively young ages is always eye catching, but too much stock is often placed on it IMO. Good prospects keep developing — until they don’t. It’s difficult to get that part right.
Think of some of the best players on Pony League age teams who could grow full beards. Then as seniors in high school, so many of the others kids wondered why everybody thought beard guy was so good in Pony League. That is other end of the development timeline, but similar dynamics happen on both ends that just aren’t easy to predict.
All that said, AB doesn’t project the silhouette that screams hype me as big time future all-around star. I hope he’s working to transform that. That’s a part he has big control over.
I get a kick out of poster who said that no wonder Burleson ravaged AAA pitching because he was a 23 year old. I wonder if he knows what the average age of a AAA player is. Lol.
True Cranny, but the comparison is to Taveras, not the average AAA player. I think Burly has a good shot to be better than a 10 WAR career player, but can’t argue that he is somewhat one dimensional. So his value will have to come from offense.
Oscar profiled as a better all around player, and likely would have gotten better “younger” than Burly.
The hype for Oscar was rightly brighter than for AB.
Oscar, even after 5 1/2 years in the minors, was still trying to improve his defense and his base running.
Let me ask a question. How many Cardinal prospects over the years have put up AAA numbers anywhere close to Burleson?
Burleson’s season wasn’t even good enough for the Cardinals to choose him as their Player of the Year. 😉
Speaking of which, maybe this comparison should be about Moises Gomez, instead… How long has it been since any Cardinals prospect hit as many home runs between AA and AAA as him?
It took me about 3 minutes to come up with a Cardinals prospect who had this line in his first taste of AAA:
.312/.368/.473/.841 with 16 HRs in 504 PAs
similar walks, strikeouts and doubles as Burlesonor some additional examples that took a little longer
.303/.411/.630/1.041 with 17 HRs in 254 PAs
.322/.374/.547/.921 with 26 HRs in 521 PAsIn addition, here are some seasons that are close to or better than Burleson:
Arozarena, Nogowski, Ravelo – 2019
O’Neill, Voit, Ravelo, Wisdom – 2018
Voit, DeJong – 2017
David Washington – 2016
Pham, Taveras, Scruggs – 2014
Matt Adams – 2012
Tyler Greene, Mark Hamilton – 2011I doubt that, Forsch. The only one I could find that came anywhere close was Arozarena if you look at BA, OBP, Slg. %, and OPS.
And Brian, would suggest you look at the K rate of Gomez vs. Burleson. Look at how many home runs Burleson hit compared to his K rate. Wouldn’t you agree that’s pretty rare?
I’d like to see Burleson hit more fly balls. His ground ball rate is what we want from our pitchers, not a 1B/DH type.
Forsch – I doubt any of them compare to what Burleson put up if you consider BA and OBP and Slg % and OPS and the number of home runs and the number of RBI and the very low K rate.
bc, this is your statement:
“How many Cardinal prospects over the years have put up AAA numbers anywhere close to Burleson?”Burleson – 2022
.331/.372/.532/.905, 20HRs, 87 RBIs, 14.3% K rate.So Arozarena’s 2019 qualifies.
.358/.435/.594/1.028, 12 HRs, 38 RBIs, 17% K rate..295/.413/.476/.889, 15 HRs, 75 RBIs, 11.7% K rate. Nogowski 2019.
.305/.357/.513/.869, 7 HRs, 29 RBIs, 15.1% K rate. Edman 2019.
.311/.385/.693/1.078, 26 HRs, 68 RBIs, 24.9% K rate. O’Neill 2018.
.308/.392/.487/.879, 13 HRs, 67 RBIs, 12.3% K rate. Ravelo 2018.
.327/.407/.565/.972, 13 HRs, 50 RBIs, 17.3% K rate. Voit 2017.
.333/.403/.594/.998, 10 HRs, 46 RBIs, 25.8% K rate. Hazelbaker 2015.
.324/.395/.491/.886, 10 HRs, 44 RBIs, 20.8% K rate. Pham 2014.
.296/.364/.531/.895, 25 HRs, 86 RBIs, 22.4% K rate. Brock Peterson 2013.
.330/.362/.624/.986, 18 HRs, 50 RBIs, 20.7% K rate. Matt Adams 2012.
.323/.422/.579/1.001, 14 HRs, 43 RBIs, 24.8% K rate, Tyler Greene 2011.
.300/.417/.463/.880, 12 HRs, 70 RBIs, 12.7% K rate, Matt Carpenter 2011.
.298/.389/.585/.974, 18 HRs, 60 RBIs, 22.9% K rate, Mark Hamilton 2010.
.322/.374/.547/.921, 6 HRs, 19 RBIs, 17.4% K rate, Mark Hamilton 2009. (first 144 PAs in AAA)
.306/.361/.550/.910, 26 HRs, 91 RBIs, 21.8 % K rate, David Freese 2008.Those other 3 batting lines I used in my earlier post was:
.322/.374/.547/.921, 26 HRs, 83 RBIs, 18.2% K rate, Allen Craig 2009
.303/.411/.630/1.041, 17 HRs, 41 RBIs, 14.2% K rate, Joe Mather 2008
.312/.368/.473/.841, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs, 11.1% K rate, John Gall 2003That is quite a few close seasons and I only went back to 2008 with the exception of the infamous Mr. Gall. He was going to be the next great hitter for the Cardinals back in his day.
My point is that, while Burleson has a possibility of being a good hitter, it is not a given. I do hope he hits in the majors like he did in AAA in 2022.
bccran
Participant
25 – The average age of a AAA hitter is 26.6. The average age of the AAA pitcher is 27.3.The average AAA prospect is generally around 22-24.
Burleson is one month younger than Juan Soto.
Sorry, Pads, but that’s not right. Google “average age of minor league players by level”. You’ll see that I’m right.
And Forsch, I respect all of your research, but most of your examples fall short in at least one category. Let’s Take a few of them.
Hazelbaker hit 10 home runs and had a 25.8 K rate?
Peterson hit .296 and had a 22.4% K rate?
Edman had 7 home runs and 29 RBIs? BA 25 points less?
O’Neill with a 29.4% K rate?
Carp with 12 HRs and a BA of 30 points less?
Mather with 41 RBI?I could do that with almost all of your examples.
bccran, Pads is distinguishing between PROSPECTS and the mass of guys at Triple-A who are not going to have a significant major league career. Why they both play at the same level, they are different animals.
I respect that you think Burleson is exceptional. My view is that he had a nice season but this historical comparison stuff is full of holes. Good offseason discussion fodder, I guess.
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