[Bob Reed]

I’m with Cranny, but I’m also not averse to Brian W.’s suggestion either. If it’s one guy only, then Carlos Martinez is more equipped than Hicks or Hudson, promising though they are.

But I hasten to add that I don’t want Carlos throwing 25 pitches and then being asked to come back 24 hours later and pitch again. So it needs to be Martinez, but with an asterisk — call it a modified closer-by-committee.

Bud Norris could not have hinted more strongly in his postgame comments that he is simply burnt out right now. Worn down mentally, physically, or both. And it shows. He’s walked as many batters in the last 3 1/2 weeks as he did in the first 4 months of the season.

More specifically, through August 5th, Norris registered 57 strikeouts to just 7 walks. Yup, 57-to-7!(To be honest, I have so much lingering antipathy for the guy, I really had no idea he had been THAT dominating, that Kenley-esque sharp.) Since then, it’s 7 K’s and 7 walks. Ugh.

So give him 4 or 5 days off, if not more. That’s the big advantage of roster expansion: you can’t run low on pitchers unless you really screw up. You know, like LaRussa in 2003.

[Bob Reed]

Hey, Diz.

Far as I’m concerned, you’re not wrong to get excited about Nunez and Gorman. Malcom Nunez is better than Montero was at age 17, and Nolan Gorman is definitely ahead of where Montero was in 2017 at age 18, even though Montero was a league All-Star last year.

But the thing is, Elehuris Montero took a major leap forward in 2018, and moreover he did so while jumping from the low rookieball Gulf Coast League, over both the Appy League and NY-Penn, straight to a very tough full season league for hitters, and while toiling in a tough hitter’s park in Peoria to boot.

Hitting performance is all relative, and what Montero did at age 19 in the Midwest League was pretty rare stuff. Specifically, he posted a wRC+ of 156 this year — for those who don’t know, it’s like OPS+, where 100 is league average, 130 or so is outstanding, and anything over 150 is downright dominant. And teenagers don’t dominate very often in the MWL. A few per year, tops.

In fact, here’s a chronological list of every other MWL teenager who’s registered a 150 wRC+ or better this decade (min. 200 plate appearances):

Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, Javy Baez, Corey Seager (are you impressed yet?), Byron Buxton, Bobby Bradley, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero Jr.. As you can see, it’s rarified air.

And as mentioned in one of my other posts in this thread, Eleh might be even better than that 156 says he is. Because (1)he was better on the road than at home, and (2)he hit distinctly better during the season’s second half than the first. So there’s those bonuses.

As for your final paragraph, I included Montero’s defense in my most recent remarks so I won’t bore you by repeating that. Nolan Gorman’s glovework looked good in person for me, but he has definitely made too many errors, as young infielders are wont to do. Other hand, he’s also turned a TON of double plays, which is quite encouraging. Malcom Nunez is the polar opposite — almost no miscues, but also few double plays. Either of the kids could turn out fine in the field, or even much better than fine. But of course they won’t all wind up at third base, not if they stay with the Cards.

Short version: you’ve got 3 guys, all performing great, and all young for their leagues. In that situation, the fellow who’s done it at the higher levels is usually the lowest risk for eventually busting, and hence usually the best prospect of the bunch. This is especially true when comparing hitters in rookieball or short season, to one in a full season league.

If Nolan Gorman had succeeded in the Midwest league, then yes, I might have him above Montero. But Gorman’s been more or less overmatched in Peoria, as Brian noted when he cited the bloated strikeout rate. So right now, Eleh Montero is my slight betting favorite for a solid MLB career.

[Bob Reed]

I’m just another internet blowhard, mostly. But you are very kind, Pugs. Thank you for the sentiments.

[Bob Reed]

Top 40 for Montero will likely be aggressive compared to other outlets, Pads. But I see no reasonable alternative.

At 19 he’s won the Midwest League batting title and the league MVP award, and moreover when he was promoted to the Florida State League a couple weeks back, he was on pace to be the first teenager in the 56-year history of the MWL to lead in both batting and extra base hits. (And don’t forget, he also hit very well last year and was an All-Star in the GCL.)

Additionally, he’s played in two pitcher’s parks this season. Montero’s road OPS was 55 points higher than home at Peoria, and is 85 points higher at Palm Beach. So even his outstanding overall numbers may be underestimating his current true talent.

In other words the bat projects as elite. And as cited in a previous post above, Montero’s glovework has garnered positive run values 5 out of 5 possible times, per the metrics at Baseball Prospectus. This by no means guarantees he’ll be a good major league defender at 3rd base…but to me it strongly implies that despite his error totals he at the very least is not a poor defender right now, and probably pretty good in fact.

And if all that weren’t enough, there’s one other positive marker for success. Eleh’s plate discipline at Peoria was markedly stronger down the stretch, as was his power.

First half: .307/.359/.483 with a 16/56 BB/K, excellent for a teen in the MWL, but blah strikezone control.

Second half: .347/.416/.604 with a 17/25 BB/K, great numbers for anyone of any age at any level or league.

[Bob Reed]

Fair point, Brian. Pitching quality might be down some. But every DSL batter had said advantage, and Nunez did win the batting title by more than 50 points, and the slugging by around 130. And of course he’s real young.

Anyway, doing a deeper dive, the overall OPS has been climbing in the DSL lately, but only gently. On balance, and despite the cited 2-year ERA bump, the league batting numbers remain well within historic norms, so the 2018 increase isn’t enough that I’d factor it in to any individual player analysis. Recent seasons:

2018 .668
2017 .663
2016 .654
2015 .680
2014 .671
2013 .647
2012 .667

As you can see, this year isn’t a sore thumb.
Nunez’ season in some ways does seem too good to be true, I know. I understand the skepticism. And if I were to have a Nunez micro-concern, it would be the fact that SO MANY Cardinal batters in the DSL had wonderful 2018 seasons (both Blue and Red teams) that just maybe their run environment(s) for some reason were particularly advantageous. Easy park conditions, markedly less foul territory, better batter’s eye in CF, whatever. Were I truly all-in on Malcom, he’d be in my top 30 or 40 prospects, rather than top 125 or so.

People want to know if Nunez is for real. But honestly, I think the better question is, if this kid, as BA’s Ben Badler recently said, “is a strong, physical player with plus raw power and a huge arm at third base,” married to an exceptional track record of dominating the Cuban Junior Leagues domestically and dominating on behalf of Cuba during international competitions, then why was he not a consensus top 3 or 4 signee on July 2?

But then, people still ask how Mike Trout lasted until the 24th pick. Or Albert Pujols and Jim Thome (and a certain current Redbird star) until the 13th round.

[Bob Reed]

Comparing the DSL seasons of Malcom Nunez and Brian Sanchez is like comparing Ted Danson to George Costanza. Just in case, for the uninitiated:

[Bob Reed]

1) Montero (top 40 overall prospect)
2) Gorman (top 50 overall)

gap

3) Nunez (top 150, maybe even 100 if you squint)

big gap

4) Mendoza (top 300 perhaps)

Very Large Gap

all others

I would take issue a bit with your characterization of Montero’s defensive numbers, Nyq. Too many errors, and the E/DP ratio is below average. But his range appears to be above average, as his annual defensive runs saved are in fact very solid, every year, per the Baseball Prospectus site. To wit:

2015 +7 runs in 57 games
2016 +3 runs in 61 games
2017 +3 runs in 52 games
2018 +3 runs in 103 Peoria games
2018 + half a run in just 16 Palm Beach tilts

Five stops, five positive run values. While I suspect that Gorman is the long term resident at 3rd, I don’t think we should dismiss Montero out of hand. Could be that Gorman is agile enough for the keystone, based on what I saw a couple weeks back. Never can tell.

[Bob Reed]

Oh yeah, you got it, CC. There’s Wander Franco, and no one else is close.

How anybody above the high school level, much less a 17-year-old, can register an isolated slugging of .250+ while fanning less than 6% of the time is beyond me. It just does not happen. Well, maybe it happens. I didn’t even check! But I doubt if it’s happened 5 times in the last 20 years at any level of pro baseball.

Among Appy League guys with 180 plate appearances this year, Franco is *easily* the hardest to strike out, and also has the 4th-best isolated slugging. Crazy. (And like Nunez, he didn’t even turn 17 until March. So they’re both young-ish 17-year-olds, on top of everything else.)

As for 2019, C-27, I would think Johnson City, yes. But I’m sure the club will wait until Spring Training to see how Nunez looks. Maybe he gets the Daric Barton Treatment. You may recall that Barton –as an 18-year-old, like Nunez will be next year — was kept in Extended Spring until mid-late May or so, then sent straight to Peoria rather than a short season team. Man, I wish there were such a thing as full-season rookieball, so guys like Nunez (and Ivan Herrera and Joerlin De Los Santos and Jhon Torres and Ramon Mendoza and Adanson Cruz, et. al.,) could get at-bats in April and May against their age-peers. But then, smarter folks than I have probably considered such a scheme, and thought better of it. Maybe too much of a physical grind for the kids?

At any rate, assuming Gorman starts next year in the Midwest League, I could see Nolan getting promoted after 30 or 40 games, and Nunez inheriting the Peoria hot corner. But even if Nunez spends all of 2019 in the Appy League, he’ll still be plenty young for that level of competition.

[Bob Reed]

With his homer today, Nunez has more or less clinched the DSL Triple Crown, despite missing nearly 40% of the season due to his not signing until July. He is the first DSL batter in at least 13 years to hit .400, and also the first to slug at least .650. (But he isn’t going to slug .650, or .670, or .700, or .730. In fact he’s going to comfortably slug over .750.)

Today’s was the 5th homer for Nunez in his last 6 games, and 9th in 17 games, versus just 10 strikeouts. Over those 17 games he hit ~.400/.500/.900.

Finally, at Malcom Nunez’ MILB.com web page there are 27 different batting splits. Malcom’s worst split is his first inning line of .385/.442/.641 with 2 walks and 8 strikeouts.

Thanks for starting this thread, CC. Nunez is the second most impressive 17-year-old on the planet, and deserves much attention (and scrutiny).

[Bob Reed]

Yeah, about that 5′ 11″ frame of his.

On the day the Cards signed him, Nunez was advertised at 6′ 1″ and somewhere between 190 and 200 pounds. This from Derrick Goold’s article:

“A strapping righthanded hitter, Nunez stood out above others in his age group because of a 6-foot-1 frame and a weight between 190 pounds and 200 pounds. In Cuba’s 15-and-under league, Nunez had an absurd 46 walks and only 9 strikeouts in 152 plate appearances.”

Entire article here: https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/cardinals-headline-international-signings-with-lauded-cuban-slugger/article_23ccaaaa-7ebd-5905-8d17-7082b0e0aa1c.html

And this, from Jen Langosch/Jesse Sanchez at MLB.com:

“Standing at 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, Nunez, 17, has a strong body and is physically mature. He has exhibited strength in his swing and displays projectable hitting ability and power. Overall, he’s known for his plate discipline and offensive instincts.”

Complete article: https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/cardinals-to-sign-malcom-nunez-of-cuba/c-283509766

Best that I can figure is someone told Nunez that people tend to shrink in their seventies. He misunderstood, and thought he was supposed to shrink at age seventeen.

[Bob Reed]

Great question, Pugs. Which Cubs would I trade the kid for?

Not Almora, in large part because the Cards don’t need a defense-minded 2-3 WAR centerfielder. Bader looks like a better version of Almora right now. Maybe much better. And even though I’d rank Cub catching prospect Miguel Amaya well ahead of Nunez on an overall prospect list, I’m not sure I’d trade the latter for the former, because the Birds have numerous backstop prospects, including two I like better than Amaya — who happens to be the best Cub overall farmhand, and a top 60 or 70 guy.

One thing about Nunez, there’s of course a low, low floor, as in he never becomes a major leaguer, period. It could be that injuries get him, or his plate discipline collapses at the higher levels, or he can’t handle the plus-plus velocity he’ll face routinely in MLB these days. It could even be that his tremendous current strength is a Delvin Perez-style fraud. (Not that I have any reason AT ALL to believe this. But it is naïve to think these things aren’t going on. Obviously.)

But the other thing: for Malcom the offensive upside is star level. And stars are so very hard to grow from scratch, and even harder to trade for in the double wildcard era, when every year 22-25 teams think they have a shot at the playoffs. (Try to name a 4+-win player on a team that has no playoff shot this year, or next year.) So even if he’s got just a 5-10% chance to remain a distinctly better batter than Miguel Sano has been, I think you have to stick with him.

I think I evaded that question pretty well.

[Bob Reed]

Malcom Nunez went 2-4 today, homering for the third game in a row. Like yesterday, the game log described it as a line drive to right field. That’s an opposite field liner for a homer, by a 17-year-old, in back-to-back tilts. Strong kid.

Season line now .422/.511/.782

Since his 4 strikeout game of July 20th: .470/.545/.840 in 123 trips to the plate

Over his last 14 games: .412/.516/.922 with 7 homers and 7 strikeouts

So, for any skeptics who think the sample size is too small to be truly 100% meaningful, it certainly appears that the longer Nunez is in the league, the better his numbers will get. In other words, if anything his overall OPS of nearly 1.300 may well underestimate his current talent level.

All of this in a league where no one of any age has slugged .650 or better since at least 2005. A league where the 17-year-old Miguel Sano hit .344/.463/.547, after which he was ranked the #60 overall prospect by Baseball America and #31 by Baseball Prospectus.

Sano had an elite scouting pedigree. Nunez has a very good scouting pedigree, and a lengthy record of clobbering the baseball in the Cuban Junior Leagues. And now Nunez’ performance has far exceeded Sano’s at the same age and level of competition.

[Bob Reed]

I have Malcom Nunez 10th in the StL organization as of today, and in the top 120-140 among all prospects. He’ll move up on the Cardinal list once Tyler O’Neill’s eligibility is exhausted.

Per Ben Badler’s chat of two weeks ago: “Strong, physical player with plus raw power, huge arm at third base, and he always dominated in the Cuban junior leagues.”

So Badler tells us it’s a rocket arm, and the lack of errors would at least seem to imply an accurate one as well, in addition to sure hands. And then there’s the bat.

On the season he’s trying to be the first DSL guy to bat .400 since at least 2005 (records don’t go back further) and also the first to slug .650. But recently he’s been even better. Exactly one month ago today he fanned 4 times. Yup, Golden Sombrero. Since then he’s made 118 trips to the plate and batted .468/.543/.823. I’m not kidding.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks a million, Brian!
So, give or take a day, the cast won’t be removed until sometime between Sept. 14 and Sept. 21. Sounds like diplomacy is the only thing stopping the club from formally declaring him out for the season.

Wouldn’t putting him on the 60-day DL give the team more flexibility with the 40-man roster?

[Bob Reed]

Pads,
Could you please provide a link to the source who says Fowler won’t even get the boot off until two weeks before the season ends? This is the first concrete information I’ve heard about his timetable. I admit I don’t watch the games much anymore, but I do read the P-D pretty diligently, and I haven’t seen any Fowler info at all.

If he’s literally going to be in a boot for the next month, that is INCRDIBLE NEWS, the best I’ve heard since the day Fowler signed. (I didn’t pray for his bad health. I prayed and pray for his release or trade.)

Thanks a lot, Pads!

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the kind words, Pugs!

Booyah: I actually do think they’ll get rid of Fowler by this time next year, via trade or outright release. He’s blocking waaay too many other viable outfield options, and it’s only going to get more so.

Agreed, Nyquis. To me the distraction factor — and it’s rather similar with Holland — is nearly as counterproductive as the godawful performances. Solely due to their contracts, Fowler and Holland have become priorities in an odd sense. The club must keep them, therefore the manager MUST use them, and so must mentally contort himself into a position where using them isn’t completely insane.

But look at the secondary price that’s paid, when you keep bad players/pitchers around. You wind up under-using better pinch-hitters for instance, and OVERusing better relief arms. The terribleness and forced 25-man rostering of Cecil, Holland, and Gregerson has indirectly contributed to the unacceptable 86-inning pace of Jordan Hicks. (But don’t worry, he’ll blow his 105-MPH arm out long before he gets to 86 innings.)

The Cards do have to be more prudent with their dough than the Red Sox, that’s true 100%. But at this point in time the grotesque choice is pretty straightforward: the Cards can pay Dexter Fowler to be awful in St. Louis, or pay him to be awful for someone else. (Same with the wretched relief trio of Holland, Gregerson, and Cecil.)

The most depressing thing of this whole discussion, the really serious underlying problem, is what I wrote at another website earlier this afternoon. I am definitely vain enough to plagiarize myself, so here goes:

Resolved: Previously borderline brilliant St. Louis front office broke their brains when the Cards lost to the Cubs in the 2015 playoffs.

Since then, one bad move after another. Some seemed to make good sense at the time, while others were questionable or plain stupid from the get-go.
Leake, Cecil, Fowler, Ozuna, Gregerson, Holland, the firing of Lilliquist, the refusal to reassign Mabry to less mentally taxing responsibilities, rushing an A-Ball pitcher to the majors and placing him in the most physically precarious spot possible — high leverage relief.
Yes, there’s also Mikolas and Bud Norris. Maybe one or two other very minor moves. But on balance, The Horror.

[Bob Reed]

What’s wrong is that he might be washed up. His defense has never been good, so if he can’t post an above-average batting line, he has no value to a playoff contender — particularly one with outfield depth in both the majors and Triple-A.

What should be done with 32-year-old Dexter Fowler, who has 3.5 years and roughly $60M left on his contract? Well, what did ace GM Dave Dombrowski do last year with 30-year-old Pablo Sandoval, with 2.5 years and $50M left on his contract, when he realized that Sandoval was now a replacement=level player?

Dombrowski wisely got rid of him, upgrading the team’s talent base and eliminating a major distraction.

All things considered (batting, baserunning, glovework) Harrison Bader is almost certainly a better current MLB outfielder than Dexter Fowler — and the same could also be true of Jose Martinez and Tyler O’Neill, and even Yairo Munoz and Oscar Mercado.

Granted, I say all this from a position of extreme bias, as I despised the Fowler signing from the start. In fact I hated it so much that I immediately gave up on both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, and said so, and haven’t posted at this site since. But how could I pass up this comment thread?

Get Fowler, Holland, and Mabry out of the organization, and only good things will follow.

[Author]

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