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I imagine Rodon will get something like 7 years and 200 million, and no amount of deferrals and backloading could make that palatable to the Cardinal front office. Not sure it should.
The Cardinal template for success won’t work unless they develop some #2 and #3 starters of their own, and soon. Before 2022, it looked like Liberatore might be one. Now, not so much.
The Birds have so much young position player talent in both the majors & minors but continue to be quite weak in young starting pitchers, Graceffo and Hence notwithstanding. I don’t see a viable 2024 rotation without trading for at least one solid starter.
“Who were the Cardinals planning on having as a closer if they traded away Helsley?”
Well, they still have Giovanny Gallegos under contract for two more years, and he’s been as effective as Bruce Sutter or Lee Smith so far in his Cardinal career.
Sutter with Cards: 132 ERA+, 397 IP, 6.3 WAR
Big Lee with Cards: 128 ERA+, 267 IP, 4.4 WAR
Gallegos thus far: 142 ERA+, 230 IP, 4.1 WAROkay, I take it back, kind of. Bruce did give an incredible volume of innings. But again, in terms of effectiveness, Gallegos is right there with the Hall Of Famers. He gets out both righty and lefty batters (career OPS allowed of .559 and .611, respectively), and he pitches well on zero days rest, with a career .610 OPS and an unfathomable 52-to-4 K/BB ratio. Cleanup hitters have a .532 OPS against him, so he does dandy against even the best batters. He would be fine as the regular 9th inning guy, I think.
All of that said, I don’t believe I’d make that trade for Danny Ouchie Jansen. The Redbird pitching is mediocre as is, so why water it down? Heck, I wouldn’t have released Alex Reyes, frustrating though he is. Just forty good innings would be worth a few million bucks.
Nootbaar has a .231 career batting average and a .254 BABIP, which is awfully low. His .248 BABIP last year would’ve been roughly 7th percentile if he’d qualified. His BABIP in both AA and AAA was in the .340’s, so his MLB BABIP is probably more likely to improve than regress, I would think. Or more doubles will become homers, which would drive the BABIP even further down, but result in more production anyway.
As for his walk rate, in the majors it’s been 13.6%, which a little higher than AAA but lower than AA. So I don’t see any reason to expect a big change in that area. We’ll see. I suspect that Noot is simply what he appears to be, i.e., a much better fielding and running version of Kyle Schwarber, but with a smidgeon less power.
In any case, the batting average question ties in with the general ugliness across baseball, in terms of batting averages. They are too low, and that stinks aesthetically. Hence, the shift ban. While I disagree with policing infielders, this ban should move averages up at least a little.
People want to excoriate the baseball writers, but Schilling came much, much closer to getting in via the writers than he just did a week ago with the Veteran’s Committee (7 votes of a possible 16), which included many of his ballplaying peers.
He was over 70% twice with the writers, before becoming frustrated and demanding that his name be removed from consideration — after which his total regressed to just 58%. If he hadn’t done that, who knows?
Burleson is an inspired choice, Cranny. He’s had his dominant Triple-A season, and had his cup of MLB coffee to see what adjustments will be necessary going forward. But opportunity for Alec is the question.
As I’ve already groused about repeatedly, there just cannot be at-bats for Burley, and Yepez, and Gorman.
If Goldy, Edman, and Arenado play the same number of games as last year (452 total), that leaves 844 starts for non-catcher position players. Noot and Carlson have good health histories, so they can be penciled in for 145 games each. Tyler O’Neill played 138 in 2021, so let’s call it 135 for him. And Donovan should start at the keystone and fill in sometimes at other spots, so 145 for him as well.
If my math is right, that leaves a grand total of 274 starts for Burley, Yepez, and Gorman, combined. And that’s if Contreras never plays DH, and Jordan Walker never plays a single game in the majors this year.
For at least one legit MLB player and possibly two, there’ll be no room at the inn.
As for Noot and his power, the man is listed at 6’3″ and 210 pounds. The key was simply finding a way, over the course of 3 or 4 years, to unlock his latent power. Kudos to Jeff Albert or Turner Ward or whomever helped Lars in the minors. Because the power looks real to me now.
Man, I’d love it if Carlson turns into Jose Cruz. And I just checked on Cruz’s numbers.
Talk about late bloomers. From ages 28-36, Jose was worth more than 40 WAR(!) at Baseball-Reference. Yowza. Led the league in hits at 35. Got some MVP votes at 37. Still an above-average bat at 38. Just needed to get to Houston in order to blossom, I guess. And all the Cardinals got for him was cash, apparently.
Speaking just for myself, if I had to choose I’d take Nootbaar before Carlson right now. Edman, too. Not sure about Gorman or Donovan. All in all it’s just a bit weird to me, BikeMike. It’s as though they value Carlson as a 3.5-to-4 WAR guy, and that’s simply not been established as his MLB ability yet. I think they’re still giving meaningful weight to his prospect status from a couple years ago. And maybe they should, I dunno.
Maybe the made-for-TV movie from the 1990’s entitled Cooperstown, BikeMike?
Love Alan Arkin. Nothing against Eddie Murphy, but I was overjoyed when Arkin got his Oscar for Little Miss Sunshine. Shoulda got one for The In-Laws ages ago, but guys don’t get Oscars for comedy.
“I say resigning Montgomery is a high priority.”
I agree 100% that given ages and health histories Monty would be by far the most logical guy from among the Opening Day rotation to get a 3-5 year contract extension. But it simply can’t happen, because his agent is $cott Bora$ and if you want to retain a Bora$ client you have to pay full market price — and almost invariably you have to wait until the offseason free agent market to do so.
“As of now the rotation is as big of a mess as it was the last two years. A gaggle of injury comebacks and performance question marks.”
The rotation is indeed a huge question mark, and it doesn’t help that the 4th or 5th best starter (Woodford) will never get a shot due to managerial malfeasance. But as much as the 2023 rotation is a concern, it’s 2024 that’s a gaping maw of confusion. For the 2024 rotation and beyond, there will have to be a trade or two or three. Otherwise it’s, what, Hudson, Matz, Graceffo, and two mystery arms?
Or to put it another way, among those under team control beyond 2023, who in the entire Cardinal organization would you bet even money to post 150+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA in 2024? Nobody I can see. I’d bet on Woodford before Hudson or Matz at this point, due to health concerns. And we know it won’t be Woodford no matter how effectively he pitches in 2023.
On an unrelated note, thanks for the trivia, Andujar. I knew Ripken was waaay up there in GIDP’s, but I didn’t figure on any lefty batters — never knew Yaz was such a double play guy, or Jeter.
“It would be foolish to trade Edman. He’s a key player in our line up offensively and defensively.”
“Edman probably would bring more in a trade than any Cardinal other than Goldschmidt and Arenado. In fact, I’m certain of it.”
Agreed on the first point. I’d really like to see Tommy get an extension that runs through a couple of his post-arbitration seasons. He’s durable, valuable, and will be under-compensated because such a huge chunk of his value comes from defense + baserunning.
But as to the second point, I don’t think Tommy’s trade market value is as high as his actual on-field value, for the same reason. His best skills are too subtle. But hitting is easy to see, easy to measure. And power is easiest of all. Why, even among our learned Birdfan brethren here, there are some who’ll swear for instance that Kyle Schwarber is a really good baseball player, a better player than any current Cardinal outfielder. But in fact Schwarber is worse than any current Cardinal outfielder once defense and baserunning are taken into account.
Anyway, addressing trade values, even though Goldy & Arenado are coming off MVP type seasons, and are almost surely headed for the Hall Of Fame in 10-12 years, they just don’t have immense trade value because of their salaries. (Think what the Birds gave up to get them. Especially Nolan.) The category of Excellent But Expensive And Also Old, is a tough one to value. And many organizations don’t want to touch it.
As for Tommy’s trade value, if we take a gander at the Baseball Trade Values website — which isn’t infallible, but it’s certainly objective — we see that the most valuable trade chip the Cardinals have is probably Jordan Walker. Here’s the top 10, per that website, ranked by presumed surplus value through all club control seasons, in millions:
Walker 61.6
Carlson 49.9
Donovan 37.9
Gorman 33.5
Noot 32.8
Edman 30.7
O’Neill 26.1
Winn 25.5
Hence 22.4
Helsley 22.3
Graceffo 15.0If you’re counting, yes, I went to 11. In honor of Spinal Tap. If you’re interested the link to Trade Values is here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
I don’t understand the enormous value attached to Dylan Carlson, to be honest. Sean Murphy is just over 50MM in value, almost exactly the same as Carlson, and yet I dare say there’s no way in the world that anyone with the Cards or A’s would expect Oakland to accept Carlson straight-up for Murphy.
And Tink Hence, a pitcher who threw a handful of Low-A innings, having a value comparable Helsley, O’Neill, and Winn, is pretty stunning. A testament to Tink’s talent.
Stole the words right out of my mouth, CIF. All commonsense insights.
The best guys should play much more than those a notch below. There’s no way I want Burleson, for example, getting remotely as many games in the outfield as O’Neill, Noot, or Carlson. (And Yepez should never wear any glove, ever.) Burley’s defense doesn’t justify it, plus he should never be in the lineup versus lefties.
And I want to retract my lineup card that had Donovan 9th against southpaws. I double-checked and he hit ’em fine last year in the majors, and also did so in the minors. So despite his careless baserunning, he should top the order 145-150 times while mostly playing the keystone.
A mix-and-match collection of roster redundancies, where only three guys start 145-150 games and everyone else tops out at 110-115 or so is a terrible idea, in my opinion. Terrible for developing the young and talented hitters already on the MLB roster — of which the Cards have plenty — and also completely unacceptable for either Walker or Winn when they get the call-up.
One of the oldest and truest axioms of player development is that highly talented position players should NOT get called up to the majors until there’s an opening for them to play every day, not four days a week. It’s been said a million times, and there’s a reason for that.
This team still needs to make a trade, and probably one involving two from among Gorman, Burleson, and Yepez. None of those three should be getting a mere 200-250 at-bats, and the way the roster stands now, there’s every chance that more than one of them will. Or worse, they’ll get their 450-500 AB’s while taking a meaningful number of AB’s away from better defenders who hit just as well as they do, if not better.
No sweat, Nigel. And maybe I will check into Willson’s words.
I made the big mistake Ben Franklin always cautioned against. He said he kept his expectations low so he would rarely be disappointed. Since happiness = circumstances minus expectations, my grand hopes for Murphy or Kirk have (perhaps excessively) colored my perceptions of the Contreras contract — as well as the Fowler Disaster, no doubt. So I’m in a dark tunnel. But every tunnel has an end, right? How soon do pitchers & catchers report?
Nootbaar and Donovan were never considered elite prospects, Willie, that’s for sure. (But then, neither were Molina, Edman, Goldschmidt, or Matt Carpenter. None were ever even in a top 100, or even close.)
But so far, averaging the B-Ref and Fangraphs values, Noot has been worth 4.0 WAR per 600 PA’s for his Cardinal career. And Donovan has been even better, at 4.3 per 600. Outstanding numbers, obviously.
While it’s true they aren’t proven commodities, they both have excellent underlying plate discipline (like Matt Carpenter did), they both hit very well in their limited AAA time (140 OPS+ for Noot and 132 for Donovan), and they both project to keep on hitting.
Averaging the Marcel and Steamer forecasts for 2023, Noot comes in at a 123 OPS+ and Brendan at 123 also. When a kinda/sorta late bloomer keeps producing, it’s usually because of strong plate discipline. And both of these guys fit the bill.
Not crazy about trading for Pablo Lopez.
For his career, he has a 3.45 ERA in his home park but 4.54 on the road. (To be fair, he was good on the road in 2022.) I just see him as basically another mid-rotation guy.No harm building more depth into the rotation, but based on the Baseball Trade Values site, it would take Gorman or Donovan to get him — or, say, O’Neill plus a meaningful sweetener. And I’d rather hold on to those guys until July and trade them then, a la Bader, for whatever the Big Need is. Two seasons of Lopez doesn’t feel as valuable as 5 or 6 of Gorman/Donovan. And we’ve seen that O’Neill has superstar upside, because he’s already had a superstar season just one year ago.
I know this is a Contreras thread, but if you can’t say something nice….
Okay, here’s something nice. Maybe Willson will be incredibly motivated to “prove the cubs wrong” and get in better shape than he’s ever been, and have a career year in 2023. Like when Frank Robinson was dumped by the Reds. 😉
Versus RHP
Donovan
Noot
Goldy
Arenado
Yepez
O’Neill
Contreras
Carlson
EdmanVersus LHP
Edman
Carlson
Goldy
Arenado
Contreras
Yepez
O’Neill
Noot
DonovanAgainst righties, any of the 5,6,7 hitters could be interchanged. Yepez and O’Neill have higher career slugging percentages against righties that Willson (.460 and .468 v .444), but the differences are negligible.
Against lefties, Carlson and Nootbaar could certainly be swapped, if Noot keeps hitting southpaws like last year (.273/.400/.455 with a terrific 13/13 BB/K).The idea of “protecting” Goldy/Arenado has been wildly overblown, I think. The team has a slew of very good hitters who are projected — at least by the Steamer model — as well above average #5 type bats, relative to the MLB norm of 102 OPS+ for the past three seasons. To wit:
Yepez 122 forecast
O’Neill 118
Contreras 118
Burleson 118
Carlson 115
Gorman 110 (Yeah, he’s nowhere in my lineups. There’s no room. For him or Burley.)And Nootbaar and Donovan are 126 and 121, respectively, if they don’t hit at the top.
There’s no *great* third bat, no Pujolsian titan. But the depth of quality is exceptional. Heck, even Tommy Edman could hit 5th versus lefties if you wanted, as his career slugging % of .501 against them is just dandy.Once we adjust for the home park, it should be a lineup that rates top 5 in MLB most days.
The A’s knew and know full well they aren’t getting anything like that from any team.
“Hey, Billy Beane! Here’s my pair of 3-4 WAR guys for your 4-5 WAR guy. And of course, I get just three years of that production while you get ten. Or does it go to eleven? Oh, and I’ll throw in an elite pitching prospect, too. Hahahahaha.”
Helsley straight up for Jansen would’ve been interesting at least. Even though I don’t want Danny The Walking Disabled List Jansen anyway. I guess we should assume now that Alejandro Kirk was never available at all in the first place.
At any rate, I take Derrick Goold’s reporting in this area with a few grains of salt. Goold almost invariably presents opposing teams’ trade demands as insanely outlandish, to show how “trapped” the Redbirds are by their own talent. “The other team wanted Jordan Walker so the Cards had to leave the table.” That sort of nonsense. Like the Cards are being repeatedly, endlessly given absurd ultimatums by opposing franchises.
The A’s can ask for the sun and the moon, that’s their option. But no one is giving them anything like Noot + Donovan + Graceffo. And the Cardinals wouldn’t have had to, either, in my opinion. Not if they called Beane’s bluff. Donovan, okay. With a lefty outfielder; but Burleson not Noot. And a twirler. Or maybe even two. But not Gordon Graceffo and not Markevian Hence.
Today was a very bad day in Cardinal history. But it would have been worse with Nootbaar + Donovan + Graceffo traded for three years of Murphy — as good as he is.
“The Cardinal’s position player is NOT an inefficient cluttered mess.”
I wrote that the “St. Louis MLB position player roster is an inefficient cluttered mess right now.”
And of course it’s a mess. You don’t need two or three above average second basemen, or three solid designated hitters. There are too, too many redundancies. When you have distinct needs not being addressed, redundancies are not good, not depth. They are inefficient. They are wasteful. The 2023 wRC+ Steamer forecasts:
Nootbaar 126
Yepez 122
Donovan 121
Burleson 118
O’Neill 118
Carlson 115
Gorman 110And Jordan Walker is on the way. So that’s gonna be eight guys for five positions real soon (OFers, DH, 2B). And nine for five positions when Masyn Winn is ready, which may be midseason. There’s far too much duplication, and not near enough certainty. Just take Nolan Gorman for example. If those Steamer numbers are roughly accurate, there’s no way to justify his starting at any position, including DH, except maybe once or twice a week to give another guy a break. Even Yepez and Burleson on the same roster is somewhat questionable, as Juan can’t play the outfield and Burley probably shouldn’t, and both hit righties better than lefties. Same with Donovan & Gorman. Can’t even platoon ’em.
So what I’m saying is IF the numbers are just roughly accurate and IF the players are deployed correctly, Gorman has almost no value to the St. Louis Cardinals going forward, even if he’s a true-talent 3-WAR player! So you trade him now. Or Donovan. Trade one of them with Yepez, or Burleson. And then at least some of the clutter would get cleared.
Again, the 30-year-old Contreras is projected by one relatively reputable forecasting model to baaarely be better than 22-year-old Ivan Herrera right now. So we can only imagine what a 2025 projection would look like. It is Fowler v. Bader all over again. If you do not trust your farm system, if you’re gonna pay full freight to go outside your organization, then you darn well better be getting someone MUCH better than your internal options now, and better going forward. And I do not believe that happened today.
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“Everyone leaves out how this year’s 3.6 in arb is an aberration. It goes up, and if indeed Murphy ascends to Contreras-type power numbers, what will that extension look like?
On two years we would be debating the wisdom of giving 5 years and 125 million dollars is worth keeping one of our best players.”I never gave a moment’s thought to the Cards keeping either Murphy or Kirk beyond their arbitration years. Not at all. Never said it, never implied it. My assumption was to get three great years from Murphy at a cheapo grand total of 20-25 million bucks, after which the Cards would get the draft pick compensation when he leaves. Then the Birds turn things over to either Ivan Herrera or Leonardo Bernal or Jimmy Dale Crooks III or someone else. No big money for a backstop in his 30’s unless he’s Hall Of Fame quality — and maybe not even then, depending on who else you got coming up.
Oh, and thanks for correcting me on the lost draft pick, Brian. And the bonus pool hit is $500,000, I believe. So this deal isn’t exactly like the Dexter Fowler Disaster.
Fowler was an overrated 30-year-old former cub given 5 yrs. and $80+ million plus a 1st round pick even though the Cards had an elite prospect who played the same position and had already thrived in Double-A.
Contreras is an overrated 30-year-old ex-cub given 5 yrs. and $80+ million and a 2nd round pick plus half a million in international bonus money, even though the Cards have multiple elite prospects who play the same position, one of whom has already succeeded in Triple-A.
Yeah, why would I think those situations are the same?
Here are some 2023 forecasts, from the Steamer projection model.
All WAR totals are pro-rated to 600 plate appearances.Willson Contreras 3.4 WAR
Ivan Herrera 3.2
Sean Murphy 4.4
Alejandro Kirk 5.1As previously asserted by myself and others, if the Cards found Murphy and Kirk to be prohibitive in their trade cost, the Cards should’ve simply bought a mediocre backup and given Herrera a full shot at starting, or starting alongside Knizner, or the veteran backup.
I don’t believe in Steamer devoutly, nothing like that; I very much doubt that Contreras is currently just 0.2 WAR better than Herrera. But I do think it is entirely possible that by 2024 or ’25, there will be no meaningful gap between them, and all the Contreras money will have been wasted. And an opportunity lost.
“Contreras can play DH,” many are saying. Okay. Then what do you do with Juan Yepez, who cannot play the field to save his life? And what about Burleson, too? And if Gorman doesn’t dislodge Donovan from the keystone, where does Gorman get his at-bats?
The St. Louis MLB position player roster is an inefficient cluttered mess right now. And while it’s true that you can never have too much pitching, you CAN have too many second basemen, and too many DH’s.
“I like the move. It is a win now move and it definitely lengthens the lineup. Going five years is not that unreasonable.
ContrerasFowler is only 30 and going five years will lower the AAV. It could alter their plans forHerreraBader butContrerasFowler canDH someplay some corner outfield too. Also this move will make the Cub fans head explode so that is an added bonus.”Same rotten tune, different orchestra.
I can’t even come up with a rationalization. Contreras was helped by Wrigley, so he’s probably not as good as his numbers. (Slugging % 55 points higher at the Friendly Confines.) He hasn’t hit in Busch III, slugging just .378 there. He can’t hit “power pitching” per Baseball-Reference, with a career line of .202/.310/.328. His October hitting record beyond the division series is dismal. And the team that knew him best, let him go without so much as a ready replacement.Plus there’s all the other much more substantive reasons I hate this signing, as detailed on the separate Contreras thread. This is a bad day, folks. Real bad.
I hate it with a passion.
1) He’s not as good as his numbers indicate (helped by Wrigley field).
2) He’s too old for a half-decade contract — especially as a catcher.
3) The Cards lose an extremely valuable 1st-round draft pick in addition to the cash.
4) Based on all available information this Contreras deal now ends any meaningful monetary investment over the winter. No chance at all therefore to either (a)upgrade the mediocre pitching staff via Senga or another substantial move, or (b)make a play for Masataka Yoshida, who is a gifted hitter and even bats lefty, which I have heard is a big, big desire of the Cards.
5) But worst of all, due to the cost & years, the potential for the Fowler Disaster is very real, i.e., the team will feel forced now to play Contreras every day even when he’s not the best choice. Even if and when he is terrible, as Fowler was in 2018. And with a catcher, with the physical toll that takes, a collapse could happen at almost any time.
It is extremely likely that we will never know exactly what offer was made to Oakland or Toronto. But even a substantial overpay for Murphy or Kirk in terms of sheer total talent, would have been wildly preferable to this deal. Because none of the above five complaints would have been true in the case of either trade. But now the Cards have a potential albatross contract at catcher, and a whole lot of MLB roster clog for their third-rate manager to try and figure out.
This is a bad day for Cardinal fans. It ain’t the worst thing that could’ve happened. But it’s close.
Naaah, Nootbaar is good. Maybe real good. Averaging his Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs numbers, he’s been worth about 4 WAR per 600 plate appearances so far in his brief career. And he’s hit lefties as well as righties, so no need to consider platooning. And Lars brings energy to the team, which has some value in my opinion. Not a ton, but something.
If Toronto won’t trade Kirk, then forget ’em. Someone said Danny Jansen might give the Cards 250 AB’s per year, right? Heck, he hasn’t even reached that lowly threshold since 2019!
If the Jays will trade Kirk, and they insist on a lefty bat, then they could have either Donovan for OBP, Gorman for slugging, or Burleson for some of each. Obviously, other pieces would be added also.
No thanks on Contreras, It’ll be too much money for too many seasons, no doubt about it. That’s what happens in free agency with the marquee players & pitchers, over and over. The play is Murphy or Kirk. If you can’t get one of them at anything close to a reasonable cost, then get a halfway decent cheapo veteran to support Herrera & Knizner.
And who knows, maybe Ivan Herrera will surprise us! Believe it or not, the Steamer projection model says he’s already a 3-WAR guy per 600 PAs, so perhaps we are all underestimating him.
“Just curious, who would you NOT trade (Majors and Minors combined)? Limit 3. It seems everyone wants the Cardinals to upgrade, but every player is off limits or the ask is too high. Heck, even go 5 players, lol.”
I’ll assume we’re talking about a trade for Sean Murphy or Alejandro Kirk, and not Sandy Alcantara. For one of the two catchers, the off-limits guys would be Walker, Winn, Edman, Graceffo, and Hence. In that order. Next would be Nootbaar, then Carlson, O’Neill, Donovan, and Leonardo Bernal*. And the thing of it is, it should be possible to trade very fairly for Murphy or Kirk without losing any of those 10 players.
Look at the pool of talent still available: Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Juan Yepez, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Helsley, Ivan Herrera, Michael McGreevy, Josh Baez, Andre Pallante, Won-bin Cho, Alec Willis, Zack Thompson, and Jimmy Dale Crooks III.
*Speaking of Leo Bernal, Baseball Prospectus just ranked him the #6 Redbird prospect, so I guess the secret is out. That didn’t last long.
“There is far more evidence that Papi cheated than Bonds or Clemens did. Clemens and Bonds were hall of famers before that stuff.”
Yeah, Big Papi didn’t really deny it, even. “I tested positive somehow, and I’m gonna find out how that happened, doggone it!” (Except, he probably used profanity.)
As for Bonds, there were hundreds of hours of testimony and thousands of pages of documentation presented during the BALCO drug trial, establishing that Bonds purchased from Victor Conte’s company somewhere between 8 and 11 different illegal PEDs on dozens if not hundreds of occasions, over the course of several years. Details are available in the book Game Of Shadows. It is a subjective matter whether all of that sworn testimony and paperwork outranks Big PEDi’s positive drug test.
I agree, Willie, that Barry was a Hall Of Famer before the drug cheating. More’s the pity. But in the matter of Clemens, I’m not so sure. He did have a good case, but maybe not airtight. He began doping as soon as he left Boston at age 34. With the Carmines he did this:
192-111, 3.06 ERA, 144 ERA+, nearly 2,800 innings, and almost 2,600 strikeouts. The ERA+ was fantastic, but the wins and whiffs were lacking just a bit, especially by the standards of 15-20 years ago. I think he would’ve gotten in, but maybe 4th or 5th ballot?
“Philly was a serious contender for a WS title in ’22…”
Yes and no. Of course, they did get to the World Serious.
But they also made it in into the playoffs as the last wildcard team over the mediocre Brewers, with exactly one game to spare, in a season where an extra playoff team was added.“Maybe OAK likes Gorman and Donovan? (3B & 2B). Both 6 yrs club control and near minimum pay.”
They can ask, but there’s no way I give them that. Not both, no chance. One, not both. They get one of those, plus Burley or Yepez, plus Liberatore, plus McGreevy, and even another guy or two from the lower minors. All that would be an overpay, of course, but a palatable overpay. But if both Donovan AND Gorman are included, there is a non-trivial chance that the Cards are immediately made worse for 2023, not better.
And if this all leads to Dansby Swanson in St. Louis, then I give up on this front office. Because giving Dansby Swanson a market-value contract would combine the immense stupidity of the Fowler and Ozuna acquisitions, and likely doom the team to the 85-90 win range at best for the foreseeable future. (The Phils just proved an 87-win team can muddle through the playoffs, but I want a 97-win team in St. Louis. And that will never happen if Ollie Marmol and a highly-paid long-term Dansby Swanson are together on this team.)
Dansby is Fowler, because for his entire career up until 2022, he’s barely been a 2-WAR player. And if you commit financially and emotionally to a 2-WAR player, an average player, then just like with Fowler you’re stuck with him during all the times when he is BELOW average — and that’s roughly half the time! You have to play him when he’s below average, and you even have to play him when he’s terrible. As we’ve seen with Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter and to a smaller extent Paul DeJong in recent years.
And Dansby is Ozuna, because any team that acquires him now is acquiring an illusion, a mediocrity coming off an accidentally excellent season that will never be repeated. We have seen this movie before. And it was awful. And as we all know, sequels are always worse than the originals. (Unless Coppola or Cameron are making them.)
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If the A’s are demanding Winn or Walker or Graceffo or Hence, then forget ’em. If they want both Gorman & Donovan, then forget ’em. BUT if worse comes to worse, and Gorman & Donovan are both traded away, then bite the bullet and get Bogaerts regardless of cost, because he is an actual star player who makes your team markedly better. Swanson will make your team worse during multiple of his remaining seasons, we should have zero doubt whatsoever. Because baseball was played before 2022, and Swanson was mediocre.
Whatever they do, the Cardinals absolutely must not give big money and big years to Dansby Swanson. It would be a disaster — just like Fowler & Ozuna.
I hope you guys are right, re Swanson. At least you’ve got me almost off the ledge. 😉 So, thank you.
Mozeliak has on balance done a tremendous job as GM over the past 15 years. But since the twin disaster of Fowler/Ozuna, I don’t trust him, his scouts, or his bean counters to know the difference between the legitimately very good players, and the mediocrities-coming-off-a-big-fluke-year.
Dansby is a 7-year veteran who beat his career BABIP by 40 points in 2022, which is no doubt largely luck. And he allegedly also improved dramatically on defense — which is about as likely as Salma Hayek knocking on my door tonight for a date. I despise the MLB Network and others for incessantly describing this free agent shortstop class as the Big Four. What a load of crap. It’s three real stars and a firmly established career 2-WAR player coming off a fluke season. There was baseball before 2022, and again and again Swanson was strictly so-so. I hope to heaven the cubs sign him to an enormous long-term contract.
I feel like there’s maybe been an odd development over just the past 15-20 years when it comes to Hall Of Fame standards, and to a certain extent the very meaning of Hall membership.
While it’s very tempting, very seductive to just look at the back-of-the-baseball-card numbers, being inducted into the Hall Of Fame is not a right that a player earns on the field. It is an honor that’s bestowed. A lot goes into that. And the Hall voters are very specifically instructed as follows:
Voting — Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
So we see that it’s not merely a “character clause” that’s keeping some people out of the Hall. Three of the six criteria are explicitly integrity, sportsmanship, and character. That covers a great deal of ground. And voters who ignore integrity, sportsmanship, and character are clearly violating the rules of the Hall Of Fame, as surely as a jury that ignores the instructions from the Judge presiding over a court case.
Dansby Swanson?!?
This is going to make my head explode. It’s Marcell Ozuna all over again. Guy is a well-established league average player, then has a Big Fluke Year and everyone says, WOW, this guy is great!Attention, Mo.
There was major league baseball prior to 2022. And prior to 2022, Dansby Swanson was nothing special. At all. Even including his terrific 2022 season, Swanson has averaged just 2.5 WAR per 600 plate appearances according to Baseball-Reference. This is not someone to pursue.But don’t take my word. The Steamer 2023 projection for Swanson says he’ll be worse than Edman & Donovan in 2023, and barely better than Nolan Gorman (3.0 to 2.3 WAR/600). And Masyn Blaze Winn is on the way. Therefore, taking age into consideration the Cards might well have *four* middle infielders who’ll be better than Dansby Swanson over the next 5 years. Seriously.
And elsewhere in the Heaven Help Us category, in Goold’s chat today it was revealed that the Cards are apparently in negotiations for Danny Jansen and NOT the vastly superior Toronto catcher with twice as many years of control and a wildly superior health record. By way of comparison, the oft-injured Danny Jansen has fewer plate appearances over the past three years combined than Sean Murphy had in 2022 alone. We should hope & pray these Jansen and Swanson snippets of info are only smokescreens.
