[Bob Reed]

They got rid of John Mabry. That alone makes the season a success for me, as he was holding back this year’s team, and every future team, for as long as he was here.

How much have things changed since Mabry’s departure? Well, the team OPS is FIFTY points higher since the All-Star break, which is an extraordinary thing, and would be worth over a full season somewhere between 10 and 12 wins….and remember, that’s without contributions from either Tommy Pham or Luke Voit, who are slaughtering the ball for other organizations, now that they’ve been freed from Mabry’s toxic influence.

The future has no limit, now that Mabry’s gone and taken with him the most counterproductive hitting approach in baseball. Add to that the fact that the club has already topped their Vegas number (85.5)and at least matched the computer model win forecasts, and YES, it has been a rousing success.

Improve the bullpen, release Dexter Fowler, and get Tyler O’Neill into the everyday lineup in RF, and with average health you’re got a 93-95 win team next year. (Unfortunately, with Mike Shildt’s defer-to-the-veterans neurosis, O’Neill might never start again unless they get rid of Jose Martinez this winter. Shildt is good at some things, but he’s braindead in this matter, as bad as any manager for any team that I’ve observed in 45 years. Played Yadi an insane total of 27 games in a row. Maddeningly re-installed Fowler into the starting lineup in place of Harrison Bader. And now forcing Jose M. — a born DH if ever there was one — to embarrass himself out there, when there is a future MLB star sitting on the bench.)

It will be disappointing to finish third in the division this year, but there’s very little you can do about the quality of the other teams. Anyway, I’d rather win 90 games and miss the playoffs than win 85 and sneak in as a wildcard team. Call me nuts, but I just want to see high quality baseball.

[Bob Reed]

11) Dylan Carlson
Posted a .731 OPS in the FSL at age 19, with a .136 isolated slugging.
At 21 in the same league, Frank Thomas had a .785 and .122.
At 21 in the same league, Jeff Bagwell had a .109 isolated slugging.
And at 23 in the same league, Matt Carpenter hit .219/.286/.342. With a poorer BB/K than Carlson.

12) Ramon Urias
Across AA and AAA he slashed .300/.356/.516, and played solid second base defense, with okay baserunning. The older brother of uber-prospect Luis Urias, Ramon is going to be a starter for someone at the MLB level in the next 3 or 4 years. The guy can hit, and his contact rates are sound.

13) Ivan Herrera
As Wiley pointed out, the Panamanian backstop has posted extraordinary numbers at the dish. In his two years he’s had a 155 wRC+ in the Dominican Summer League in 2017, and then topped it with a 160 in the Gulf Coast League this year. Glove looks fine so far. Might be a special player.

14) Lane Thomas

15) Edmundo Sosa
Like Lane Thomas, Edmundo made it all the way to AAA at age 22. Also like Thomas, he should have an MLB career of some duration due to a balance of O and D contributions. With better plate discipline he’s a starting shortstop for someone. Or a superior utilityman, at least.

[Bob Reed]

I agree with Pugs, Carioca. It’s Tyson Ross in a relative landslide if the money’s the same.

Ross has been really good more recently than Waino (2015 v 2014), which is a small point in his favor. But the much larger point is that Tyson is sooo much younger. I think there’s a non-trivial chance that the 31-year-old Ross rebounds to a slightly lesser version of his best self, and even Tyson Ross Lite would be a solid #3/4 starter on a 90-win team.

But with all due respect, CC, I feel like the premise doesn’t fit the StL personnel anyway. In 2019 Gant and Gomber should both be long men/spot starters in my opinion, with Ponce migrating into short relief and Hudson competing with Reyes and Weaver for the final rotation slot alongside Martinez, Wacha, Mickolas, and Flaherty. With average health, and if they figure out how Weaver is tipping his pitches, it should be an excellent rotation again next year.

[Bob Reed]

“…international cap money the Cardinals could not use, anyway.”

Could you clarify this statement, Brian? Because I know what Derrick Goold means when he says it, and his assertion is I believe provably inaccurate.

I have debated DG during his chats, and he has made quite clear that his underlying premise when he says the Cards “cannot possibly spend” their 2018 international budget, is that there aren’t any unsigned 16-18 year-old kids out there who could be good enough to justify making room for them on the 2 Cardinal DSL rosters.

For me there are three enormous flaws with Goold’s argument.

1) As well as the two Redbird DSL teams played this year, I can guarantee you they were not overpopulated with future major leaguers. In other words there is always and forever room available for a good prospect — and especially so when the parent organization has doubled up on teams in a given league.

2) The international teen amateur market isn’t just the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, but also includes other significant baseball nations like Panama, Nicaragua, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and at least one or two others that don’t pop to mind right now. Goold’s claim whether he makes it explicit or not is that there isn’t a single significant young hitter or pitcher worth signing right now in any of those aforementioned seven baseball hotbeds. I very seriously doubt that this is the case; but even if it were true, there is still the oft-neglected fact number 3.

3) This year’s signing period doesn’t end in the fall, or the winter, or even the spring. In fact it doesn’t end until next June 15 unless I’m mistaken. So by saying that the Cards “can’t spend” their international bonus money, Goold is by extension also claiming that there will not be — at any point between now and next June 15 — any young pitcher or position player emerging in any of the above countries. That is nearly a statistical impossibility.

Put numbers 1, 2, and 3 together, and Goold’s case is baseless. In my opinion.

[Bob Reed]

Carioca:
Gracias, sir, for the Taveras shout-out. I do keep a (neurotically) close eye on the DSL, compared to most normal fans.

Vegas:
Nunez was initially contacted by the Cards way back when he was 14, and a rapport was established. I feel that probably informed the relative pittance for which he signed.

8) Dylan Carlson
Don’t be tricked by the batting average; Dylan Carlson Was an above average batter in the Florida State League, with a 112 wRC+, and in spite of a mediocre .286 BABIP. From 2017 to 2018, Dylan decreased his strikeouts by 25%, improved his walks by 20%, and bumped his isolated slugging by more than 40%. And his defense is graded far above average at Baseball Prospectus, as he is 14.6 runs above average in 277 career games. Solid baserunner, too. I have him just inside my top 100 overall prospects.

9) Ramon Urias
Destroyed the Mexican League last year (164 wRC+) and the Texas League this year at age 23 (170 wRC+), with sturdy plate discipline, average defense at the keystone, and okay baserunning. His AAA struggles don’t bother me much, as 2018 was his first taste of U.S. pro baseball. One of the 8-10 most overlooked prospects in the game right now, for any organization. Future 2-3 WAR starter, and perhaps better in his prime. Small man, big bat.

10) Malcom Nunez
You probably never heard of him.

[Bob Reed]

I am overwhelmed by your generous words, Pugs. Your good humor has frequently served as a model for all of us to follow, especially yours truly. The internet can always use more magnanimity, and you bring that with brio.

As for the other thing, whatever the majority decides is fine with me re 8, 9, 10.

(I’m getting close to voting for Nunez, Pugs. Pretty darn close.)

[Bob Reed]

“The shift isn’t a long-term problem. IF you have hitters so stupid that they refuse to learn to hit against an obvious shift, they need to go back to the minors. Learn to bunt and make them pay.”

Exactly, Diz. Well said.
Mike Schmidt and Steve Garvey and Jim Edmonds and many other heavy hitters knew how to bunt. If pitchers can learn to bunt, so can sluggers. At least, well enough to discourage clubs from shifting against them.

I do think Smoltz is a terrific analyst, and a bright and entertaining broadcaster. Not “entertaining” in the clownish Kevin Millar mold or the wretched, screeching Chris Russo. Entertaining, as in insightful and sometimes surprising, and not the least bit beholden to either hyper-traditionalists or the more narrow-minded ideologues among the SABR set. So I’m not crazy about the idea of disagreeing with Smoltzy. But I do. Forgive me if I ramble, but I want to be thorough.

Tanking has already been addressed in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. Under the previous CBA, from 2012-2016, when the Cubs were the most prominently tanking team, the ethically questionable teams profited in three ways. (1)Higher draft pick. (2)Bloated draft budget, compared to winning teams. (3)Similarly bloated international prospect budget. If you think point #3 doesn’t matter much, then you should check how many millions the Cubs paid to acquire Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, the star prospects who were eventually key to major Cub trades for pitching.

But losing on purpose no longer profits a team in the same 3 ways. Now every team is pretty much permitted the same international budget. And the draft budgets are now compressed, closer to one another than they were from 2012-16.

So teams can continue to radically slash their payrolls and lose on purpose as the Cubs did from 2012-2014. But it won’t generate the advantages that it did for the Cubs. You can’t ever stop teams from being greedy or stupid. But you CAN stop rewarding them for it. And that’s already happening.

But we are not at some perfect Platonic baseball ideal, I don’t think.
There are two substantive problems with the game, in my opinion. Too many strikeouts, too many homers.

So lower the mound 2-3 inches to cut down the K’s.
And deaden the baseballs just enough to turn 10-15 percent of the homers into doubles and triples.

You’re welcome, Mr. Manfred!

[Bob Reed]

I love Malcom Nunez, and he’s got a puncher’s chance to be something special. But I’m forced to disagree with your conclusion, Pugs. If we count him as eligible, Carson’s still one of the 3 or 4 best backstop prospects in baseball. He has an excellent defensive reputation, nobody disputes it. And…

Carson Kelly was an above average AA hitter at 21.
Then he was an above average AAA hitter at 22.
And then above average in AAA again at 23. And also at 23 (this year) he walked exactly as often as he struck out. All of these things are really good signs, and tend to be extremely predictive.

Even money says he’ll be a legit MLB hitter, roughly league average, once he gets the playing time. It’s unfair in my opinion to claim that he’s had “three chances” when he hasn’t even had one yet where he got as much as a third of the AB’s given to good old non-prospect Bo Hart some years back. Carson’s only stretch of anything approaching consistent playing time was last year when he got a grand total of 25 plate appearances in the 8 games between September 24 and October 1st.

In Mike Trout’s first shot at the majors he had 135 trips to the plate and batted .220. It didn’t mean anything, of course. And very likely neither does a handful of Carson Kelly AB’s scattered across 3 different seasons. Is it frustrating? Yup. Does it mean anything? I really, really doubt it.

[Bob Reed]

“Elvis Monterey.” I like that. Combine Pugs’ and Pads’ nomenclatures. Has a real ring to it.

And I’ll take Andrew Knizner at #6, please.

[Bob Reed]

While I admire your tenacity, Pugs, I have to go with Elehuris Montero at #5, please.

Dominated his league at a young age, got markedly better as the season went on — in terms of both power and plate discipline — and according to the numbers at Baseball Prospectus, despite somewhat shaky error totals, he’s been a solid defender at every single professional stop.

I had him #2 in the system behind Alex Reyes (or third behind O’Neill and Reyes, if you consider O’Neill eligible), and roughly top 40 in all the minors. Looks like an above average regular in the long term.

[Bob Reed]

The velocity is definitely just fine, Mike.

In fact, Weaver’s velocity is slightly UP compared to last year. Also he’s throwing the curveball slightly MORE often than when he was dominating last season…so at the very least it doesn’t look like an injury is to blame, and we can’t in all fairness blame it on a limited repertoire — regardless of what Mr. Horton says on the air.

The Cards need to bring in Chris Carpenter and have him watch the young guy pitch in a game situation. Carp was known for spotting a big tipper. Helped Waino a couple of times when Adam was young(er), I believe.

[Bob Reed]

Weaver is tipping his pitches. That is the sole plausible explanation. Why Maddux can’t figure this out and fix it, after 5 months, is beyond me.

The velocity is the same as when Weaver was dominant last year. The movement is the same. The repertoire is identical. But the hitters know what’s coming.

For two months in 2017 Weaver was one of the most effective pitchers in baseball, with 58 K’s and just 8 walks! Only 8 earned runs allowed in those 7 starts plus a relief appearance, covering a little over 40 innings.

Then the Cubs lit him up. Then the Brewers. And now it’s pretty much everyone. This is a guy who was as dominant as anyone in the minors for two years, and then the same in the majors. And now, despite the same velocity & movement, he stinks?! Only tipping can explain it.

Anybody remember when John Smoltz was broadcasting a Cards/SF series a couple years back, and he talked about Cueto and Samardzija, who were then pitching for the Giants? Casual as you please, Smoltz mentioned that the reason Cueto got lit up as a Royal, and Samardzija got murdered when on the White Sox, was that they were BOTH tipping their pitches.

Smoltz said it like it was no big revelation, like it was in fact common knowledge, but personally I never heard or read anything else about it, before or since. I strongly suspect that pitch-tipping is a MUCH larger part of the game than is publicly advertised — for obvious reasons.

And Weaver has been tipping, I have no doubt whatsoever.

[Bob Reed]

First, thanks for all the feedback, guys.
I was pretty sure the Cards would have the strongest group of (very) young position players. Just didn’t know the gap would be so pronounced between themselves and all other farm systems. Makes me want to take a time machine to 2023.

Reverie aside, let’s check on Ludwin Jimenez, Wiley.

Ludwin was first among all DSL 16-year-olds in innings pitched, and #1 in both strikeout metrics, with 9.8 K/9 IP and a 26.1% rate of fanning batters. That’s with a minimum of 40 IP.

Unfortunately only a handful of 16-year-olds qualified, roughly 10 or so. So let’s expand the rankings to include Jimenez’ 17-yr-old peers. There were 67 of them who tossed at least 40 innings this season, so that makes for a much more meaningful sample.

If you place Ludwin Jimenez within the 67 17-yr-olds, he’d be 5th in innings, 6th in K/9, and 7th in K%. Pretty darn impressive, I’d say.

Of course, all of this comes with the massive caveat that pitchers — unlike hitters — can’t be effectively graded by their stat lines alone. (But it’s always better to be healthy & successful than not.)

[Bob Reed]

I’m with Cranny, but I’m also not averse to Brian W.’s suggestion either. If it’s one guy only, then Carlos Martinez is more equipped than Hicks or Hudson, promising though they are.

But I hasten to add that I don’t want Carlos throwing 25 pitches and then being asked to come back 24 hours later and pitch again. So it needs to be Martinez, but with an asterisk — call it a modified closer-by-committee.

Bud Norris could not have hinted more strongly in his postgame comments that he is simply burnt out right now. Worn down mentally, physically, or both. And it shows. He’s walked as many batters in the last 3 1/2 weeks as he did in the first 4 months of the season.

More specifically, through August 5th, Norris registered 57 strikeouts to just 7 walks. Yup, 57-to-7!(To be honest, I have so much lingering antipathy for the guy, I really had no idea he had been THAT dominating, that Kenley-esque sharp.) Since then, it’s 7 K’s and 7 walks. Ugh.

So give him 4 or 5 days off, if not more. That’s the big advantage of roster expansion: you can’t run low on pitchers unless you really screw up. You know, like LaRussa in 2003.

[Bob Reed]

Hey, Diz.

Far as I’m concerned, you’re not wrong to get excited about Nunez and Gorman. Malcom Nunez is better than Montero was at age 17, and Nolan Gorman is definitely ahead of where Montero was in 2017 at age 18, even though Montero was a league All-Star last year.

But the thing is, Elehuris Montero took a major leap forward in 2018, and moreover he did so while jumping from the low rookieball Gulf Coast League, over both the Appy League and NY-Penn, straight to a very tough full season league for hitters, and while toiling in a tough hitter’s park in Peoria to boot.

Hitting performance is all relative, and what Montero did at age 19 in the Midwest League was pretty rare stuff. Specifically, he posted a wRC+ of 156 this year — for those who don’t know, it’s like OPS+, where 100 is league average, 130 or so is outstanding, and anything over 150 is downright dominant. And teenagers don’t dominate very often in the MWL. A few per year, tops.

In fact, here’s a chronological list of every other MWL teenager who’s registered a 150 wRC+ or better this decade (min. 200 plate appearances):

Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, Javy Baez, Corey Seager (are you impressed yet?), Byron Buxton, Bobby Bradley, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero Jr.. As you can see, it’s rarified air.

And as mentioned in one of my other posts in this thread, Eleh might be even better than that 156 says he is. Because (1)he was better on the road than at home, and (2)he hit distinctly better during the season’s second half than the first. So there’s those bonuses.

As for your final paragraph, I included Montero’s defense in my most recent remarks so I won’t bore you by repeating that. Nolan Gorman’s glovework looked good in person for me, but he has definitely made too many errors, as young infielders are wont to do. Other hand, he’s also turned a TON of double plays, which is quite encouraging. Malcom Nunez is the polar opposite — almost no miscues, but also few double plays. Either of the kids could turn out fine in the field, or even much better than fine. But of course they won’t all wind up at third base, not if they stay with the Cards.

Short version: you’ve got 3 guys, all performing great, and all young for their leagues. In that situation, the fellow who’s done it at the higher levels is usually the lowest risk for eventually busting, and hence usually the best prospect of the bunch. This is especially true when comparing hitters in rookieball or short season, to one in a full season league.

If Nolan Gorman had succeeded in the Midwest league, then yes, I might have him above Montero. But Gorman’s been more or less overmatched in Peoria, as Brian noted when he cited the bloated strikeout rate. So right now, Eleh Montero is my slight betting favorite for a solid MLB career.

[Bob Reed]

I’m just another internet blowhard, mostly. But you are very kind, Pugs. Thank you for the sentiments.

[Bob Reed]

Top 40 for Montero will likely be aggressive compared to other outlets, Pads. But I see no reasonable alternative.

At 19 he’s won the Midwest League batting title and the league MVP award, and moreover when he was promoted to the Florida State League a couple weeks back, he was on pace to be the first teenager in the 56-year history of the MWL to lead in both batting and extra base hits. (And don’t forget, he also hit very well last year and was an All-Star in the GCL.)

Additionally, he’s played in two pitcher’s parks this season. Montero’s road OPS was 55 points higher than home at Peoria, and is 85 points higher at Palm Beach. So even his outstanding overall numbers may be underestimating his current true talent.

In other words the bat projects as elite. And as cited in a previous post above, Montero’s glovework has garnered positive run values 5 out of 5 possible times, per the metrics at Baseball Prospectus. This by no means guarantees he’ll be a good major league defender at 3rd base…but to me it strongly implies that despite his error totals he at the very least is not a poor defender right now, and probably pretty good in fact.

And if all that weren’t enough, there’s one other positive marker for success. Eleh’s plate discipline at Peoria was markedly stronger down the stretch, as was his power.

First half: .307/.359/.483 with a 16/56 BB/K, excellent for a teen in the MWL, but blah strikezone control.

Second half: .347/.416/.604 with a 17/25 BB/K, great numbers for anyone of any age at any level or league.

[Bob Reed]

Fair point, Brian. Pitching quality might be down some. But every DSL batter had said advantage, and Nunez did win the batting title by more than 50 points, and the slugging by around 130. And of course he’s real young.

Anyway, doing a deeper dive, the overall OPS has been climbing in the DSL lately, but only gently. On balance, and despite the cited 2-year ERA bump, the league batting numbers remain well within historic norms, so the 2018 increase isn’t enough that I’d factor it in to any individual player analysis. Recent seasons:

2018 .668
2017 .663
2016 .654
2015 .680
2014 .671
2013 .647
2012 .667

As you can see, this year isn’t a sore thumb.
Nunez’ season in some ways does seem too good to be true, I know. I understand the skepticism. And if I were to have a Nunez micro-concern, it would be the fact that SO MANY Cardinal batters in the DSL had wonderful 2018 seasons (both Blue and Red teams) that just maybe their run environment(s) for some reason were particularly advantageous. Easy park conditions, markedly less foul territory, better batter’s eye in CF, whatever. Were I truly all-in on Malcom, he’d be in my top 30 or 40 prospects, rather than top 125 or so.

People want to know if Nunez is for real. But honestly, I think the better question is, if this kid, as BA’s Ben Badler recently said, “is a strong, physical player with plus raw power and a huge arm at third base,” married to an exceptional track record of dominating the Cuban Junior Leagues domestically and dominating on behalf of Cuba during international competitions, then why was he not a consensus top 3 or 4 signee on July 2?

But then, people still ask how Mike Trout lasted until the 24th pick. Or Albert Pujols and Jim Thome (and a certain current Redbird star) until the 13th round.

[Bob Reed]

Comparing the DSL seasons of Malcom Nunez and Brian Sanchez is like comparing Ted Danson to George Costanza. Just in case, for the uninitiated:

[Bob Reed]

1) Montero (top 40 overall prospect)
2) Gorman (top 50 overall)

gap

3) Nunez (top 150, maybe even 100 if you squint)

big gap

4) Mendoza (top 300 perhaps)

Very Large Gap

all others

I would take issue a bit with your characterization of Montero’s defensive numbers, Nyq. Too many errors, and the E/DP ratio is below average. But his range appears to be above average, as his annual defensive runs saved are in fact very solid, every year, per the Baseball Prospectus site. To wit:

2015 +7 runs in 57 games
2016 +3 runs in 61 games
2017 +3 runs in 52 games
2018 +3 runs in 103 Peoria games
2018 + half a run in just 16 Palm Beach tilts

Five stops, five positive run values. While I suspect that Gorman is the long term resident at 3rd, I don’t think we should dismiss Montero out of hand. Could be that Gorman is agile enough for the keystone, based on what I saw a couple weeks back. Never can tell.

[Bob Reed]

Oh yeah, you got it, CC. There’s Wander Franco, and no one else is close.

How anybody above the high school level, much less a 17-year-old, can register an isolated slugging of .250+ while fanning less than 6% of the time is beyond me. It just does not happen. Well, maybe it happens. I didn’t even check! But I doubt if it’s happened 5 times in the last 20 years at any level of pro baseball.

Among Appy League guys with 180 plate appearances this year, Franco is *easily* the hardest to strike out, and also has the 4th-best isolated slugging. Crazy. (And like Nunez, he didn’t even turn 17 until March. So they’re both young-ish 17-year-olds, on top of everything else.)

As for 2019, C-27, I would think Johnson City, yes. But I’m sure the club will wait until Spring Training to see how Nunez looks. Maybe he gets the Daric Barton Treatment. You may recall that Barton –as an 18-year-old, like Nunez will be next year — was kept in Extended Spring until mid-late May or so, then sent straight to Peoria rather than a short season team. Man, I wish there were such a thing as full-season rookieball, so guys like Nunez (and Ivan Herrera and Joerlin De Los Santos and Jhon Torres and Ramon Mendoza and Adanson Cruz, et. al.,) could get at-bats in April and May against their age-peers. But then, smarter folks than I have probably considered such a scheme, and thought better of it. Maybe too much of a physical grind for the kids?

At any rate, assuming Gorman starts next year in the Midwest League, I could see Nolan getting promoted after 30 or 40 games, and Nunez inheriting the Peoria hot corner. But even if Nunez spends all of 2019 in the Appy League, he’ll still be plenty young for that level of competition.

[Bob Reed]

With his homer today, Nunez has more or less clinched the DSL Triple Crown, despite missing nearly 40% of the season due to his not signing until July. He is the first DSL batter in at least 13 years to hit .400, and also the first to slug at least .650. (But he isn’t going to slug .650, or .670, or .700, or .730. In fact he’s going to comfortably slug over .750.)

Today’s was the 5th homer for Nunez in his last 6 games, and 9th in 17 games, versus just 10 strikeouts. Over those 17 games he hit ~.400/.500/.900.

Finally, at Malcom Nunez’ MILB.com web page there are 27 different batting splits. Malcom’s worst split is his first inning line of .385/.442/.641 with 2 walks and 8 strikeouts.

Thanks for starting this thread, CC. Nunez is the second most impressive 17-year-old on the planet, and deserves much attention (and scrutiny).

[Bob Reed]

Yeah, about that 5′ 11″ frame of his.

On the day the Cards signed him, Nunez was advertised at 6′ 1″ and somewhere between 190 and 200 pounds. This from Derrick Goold’s article:

“A strapping righthanded hitter, Nunez stood out above others in his age group because of a 6-foot-1 frame and a weight between 190 pounds and 200 pounds. In Cuba’s 15-and-under league, Nunez had an absurd 46 walks and only 9 strikeouts in 152 plate appearances.”

Entire article here: https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/cardinals-headline-international-signings-with-lauded-cuban-slugger/article_23ccaaaa-7ebd-5905-8d17-7082b0e0aa1c.html

And this, from Jen Langosch/Jesse Sanchez at MLB.com:

“Standing at 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, Nunez, 17, has a strong body and is physically mature. He has exhibited strength in his swing and displays projectable hitting ability and power. Overall, he’s known for his plate discipline and offensive instincts.”

Complete article: https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/cardinals-to-sign-malcom-nunez-of-cuba/c-283509766

Best that I can figure is someone told Nunez that people tend to shrink in their seventies. He misunderstood, and thought he was supposed to shrink at age seventeen.

[Bob Reed]

Great question, Pugs. Which Cubs would I trade the kid for?

Not Almora, in large part because the Cards don’t need a defense-minded 2-3 WAR centerfielder. Bader looks like a better version of Almora right now. Maybe much better. And even though I’d rank Cub catching prospect Miguel Amaya well ahead of Nunez on an overall prospect list, I’m not sure I’d trade the latter for the former, because the Birds have numerous backstop prospects, including two I like better than Amaya — who happens to be the best Cub overall farmhand, and a top 60 or 70 guy.

One thing about Nunez, there’s of course a low, low floor, as in he never becomes a major leaguer, period. It could be that injuries get him, or his plate discipline collapses at the higher levels, or he can’t handle the plus-plus velocity he’ll face routinely in MLB these days. It could even be that his tremendous current strength is a Delvin Perez-style fraud. (Not that I have any reason AT ALL to believe this. But it is naïve to think these things aren’t going on. Obviously.)

But the other thing: for Malcom the offensive upside is star level. And stars are so very hard to grow from scratch, and even harder to trade for in the double wildcard era, when every year 22-25 teams think they have a shot at the playoffs. (Try to name a 4+-win player on a team that has no playoff shot this year, or next year.) So even if he’s got just a 5-10% chance to remain a distinctly better batter than Miguel Sano has been, I think you have to stick with him.

I think I evaded that question pretty well.

[Bob Reed]

Malcom Nunez went 2-4 today, homering for the third game in a row. Like yesterday, the game log described it as a line drive to right field. That’s an opposite field liner for a homer, by a 17-year-old, in back-to-back tilts. Strong kid.

Season line now .422/.511/.782

Since his 4 strikeout game of July 20th: .470/.545/.840 in 123 trips to the plate

Over his last 14 games: .412/.516/.922 with 7 homers and 7 strikeouts

So, for any skeptics who think the sample size is too small to be truly 100% meaningful, it certainly appears that the longer Nunez is in the league, the better his numbers will get. In other words, if anything his overall OPS of nearly 1.300 may well underestimate his current talent level.

All of this in a league where no one of any age has slugged .650 or better since at least 2005. A league where the 17-year-old Miguel Sano hit .344/.463/.547, after which he was ranked the #60 overall prospect by Baseball America and #31 by Baseball Prospectus.

Sano had an elite scouting pedigree. Nunez has a very good scouting pedigree, and a lengthy record of clobbering the baseball in the Cuban Junior Leagues. And now Nunez’ performance has far exceeded Sano’s at the same age and level of competition.

[Author]

Posts