[Bob Reed]

21) Ramon Urias

22) Ivan Herrera

23) Edmundo Sosa

24) Jhon Torres

25) Leandro Cedeno

[Bob Reed]

I’m with you 100% in regards to Jose Martinez, Forschy. Even when he’s hitting really, really well, as he has for the 2016/17/18 Birds, Jose is just a 2-2.5 WAR player per 600 trips to the plate. He is a terrific bench asset, a great pinch-hitter, but too limited for the starting lineup of a playoff contender — especially one that already has Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill. Those are the no-doubt outfield starters, in a rational world.

Matt Carpenter though is a different story. He’s a distinctly better bat, better glove, and better baserunner than Jose Martinez, and this is duly reflected in Carp’s terrific annual WAR totals. Since he became an MLB starter in 2013, Matt is near the very top of N.L. WAR leaderboard, as he ranks number…well here’s the top 10, per Fangraphs:

1) Goldy 32.8 WAR
2) Votto 29.0
3) Cutch 28.8
4) Freeman 28.5
5) CARP 27.2
6) Harper 26.2
7) Posey 25.9
8) Rendon 25.7
8T) Yelich 25.7
10) Arenado 25.0

That’s some pretty good company he’s been keeping.

Lastly, Mike Moustakas belongs to a narrow and specific class of player, alongside Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, and Eric Hosmer among others. These guys are all nice boring solid 2 WAR regulars for their careers, give or take a rounding error. And let it be said, you have to be sooo good at baseball to be an average major leaguer. But average major leaguers should never be mistaken for the better ones.

Average major leaguers trick people, and I mean it happens ALL the time. When they have a really good year, a large percentage of people, even the otherwise intelligent ones, invariably say something silly like: “In terms of talent, that guy is well above average! He just, you know, has a down year sometimes.”

Here’s my ten cent diagnosis. Baseball fans tend to be optimists, so they convince themselves that these average players are in fact very good, but just have bad stretches now and then. But if these optimists would stop and think hard for just ten seconds, they’d realize that’s exactly what an average player is: a guy who’s above average sometimes, and below average sometimes. Or in the case of Eric Hosmer, below replacement level sometimes. For entire seasons.

Which is my unusually long-winded way of saying that Moustakas is markedly worse than the St. Louis version of Jedd Gyorko, who’s been worth an excellent 3.6 WAR per 600 PA’s since donning the birds on the bat (averaging the B-Ref, B-Pro, and Fangraphs values). And Jedd’s under team control for two years at a very modest price — but just one year if the Cards don’t want to exercise the 2020 option.

No Moose is good Moose.

[Bob Reed]

Couple of things. First, attendance. (I know, it’s really tickets sold. But that’s all we got. And it’s what counts most anyway, other than for the visuals.)

Despite some recent hand-wringing, attendance remains as usual a huge organizational strength for St. Louis. The Cards ranked third in all MLB this year in average attendance, behind only LA and the Yanks, at over 42,000 per game. Frisco was a distant 4th at fewer than 39K. Oh, and if you meet a Giants fan be sure to call their team “Frisco.”

Better than that, the Birds were first, yeah first in the majors in percentage of their seats that got bought, at 95.6%. The Red Sox were barely #2 with 95.3 and the baby bears got the bronze medal with 92.4. Twenty-six teams were under 90% and 24 under 85%.

Attendance link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance/_/sort/homePct

And second, I’m with you 100% cranny that the Cardinals should settle on a regular starting eight. Good, steady all around players. That’s how you described them, and I agree wholeheartedly. It’s about getting good players, whatever shape they take. Above average players for their positions. Guys better than 2-WAR, however they get there.

I don’t care if they all hit righty, or lefty. I don’t care of they never steal a base, or if some of them commit the most errors in the league at their position. I don’t care if nobody is a classic leadoff type, or an archetypical cleanup hitter. As long as they are all average or better among their peers, all 2+ WAR guys (and preferably more of course) once the batting, defense, and baserunning are all accounted for. For me that’s all that matters. Overall value, not role, not handedness, not steals or strikeouts or homers or error totals. Just the overall value.

So here’s my proposed Everyday Eight, and their career WAR averages per 600 plate appearances. For the WAR totals below I took the average of the only 3 publicly available WAR yardsticks: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and B-Prospectus. Two reasonable exceptions to this methodology, however. For Jedd Gyorko I used only his trio of Cardinal seasons, as that clearly represents a stable and sustained and markedly different level of ability than he showed in San Diego. And also, for Yadi Molina I only used the Prospectus WAR values, since for some unknowable reason they’re the sole website that includes both pitch framing and pitch blocking data, even though such numbers have been around for a decade or so.

Ozuna 3.2 WAR/600 PA’s
Bader 5.2
O’Neill 5.9
Gyorko 3.6
DeJong 4.2
Wong 2.7
Carp 3.9
Yadi 4.5

These reflect only the past, of course. I’m not making any predictions here. But I think these numbers illustrate why I believe that bullpen help and only bullpen help is a real team need this offseason.

(You all probably knew this already, but the Redbird starting pitching has been elite this year, all year. They’re 4th in MLB, and 2nd in the Senior Circuit in ERA. The pen on the other hand stunk. Next to last in the N.L. in Win Probability Added, at 5-6 wins worse than the average team, and 14(!) worse than the Cubs. In other words, with a merely average relief corps this year, the Cards would be right there with the Brewers and baby bears.)

I’m not completely stubborn, though. If they can swing a low-risk trade for someone like Kyle Seager in hopes of a big bounceback, then OK fine. With three years left on his contract, Seager wouldn’t be around long enough to block either Elehuris Montero or Nolan Gorman for more than a year, if either quickly self-actualizes. With Seager added, Jedd G. could at least temporarily slide over into a superutility role alongside Munoz for the next two years. And if Seager didn’t reclaim his past greatness, then Gyorko could simply return to being the hot corner regular for 130-140 games.

[Bob Reed]

I’ve been re-reading the Jon Ronson book, So You’ve Been Publicly Shamed, and based on the rather disturbing tales therein, and the Olbermann/Bader back-and-forth, I have less interest than ever in Twitter participation. Seems to make people even meaner than the regular internet.

I don’t have strong feelings one way or the other about K.O., but any baseball follower who thinks Harry’s not a dynamite talent isn’t paying attention. In other words, what BikeMike said.

[Bob Reed]

Sorry, guys. Missed Arozarena.

I’ll move Torres up one slot to #19, and make Leandro Cedeno #20.

Thanks for catching that.

[Bob Reed]

You mean, Tommy Pham is hitting .346 for Tampa Bay heading into today’s game with the Yankees, who are led by Luke Voit and his 1.005 OPS.

And that was before Voit went 3-3 today with another homer, his 12th for the Yanks in 37 games. It really is almost impossible to overestimate how many Cardinal hitters were being held down by John Mabry, and how badly.

[Bob Reed]

Brian:
The Cards have some control over the Cubs and Brewers when they face them head-to-head. Of course. But those head-to-head meetings constitute not much more than 10% of each team’s schedule.

I’m saying that the Cards have almost no control over whether the Cubs/Brewers win 88, 91, or 95 games. There is no disputing that. Sorry I wasn’t more clear before.

Getting back to the preseason projections thread.
The Cards were forecast by 538.com to win 86 games and get the 1st Wildcard slot. They’ve already exceeded that win forecast total. So how can that be a failure?

The USA Today had 6 writer predictions and just 2 had the Cards in the playoffs.
NY Newsday writers? Just 2 of 7.
The MLB Network polled 15 folks, and just 3 put the Cards in the postseason. Half as many as picked the Mets. Yes, the Mets. Heck, more picked the Twins for October than the Cards.

That’s 2 of 6, 2 of 7, and 3 of 15. For a total of 7 out of 28, or exactly 25%. So how can anyone think the Cards were supposed to make the playoffs?

Nyquis said it best back then. “The Cardinals would be the MLB’s surprise team if they get a wildcard.”

[Bob Reed]

I think I know a failure when I see one.

Washington? That’s a failure. Dodgers if they miss the playoffs? That’s a failure.

I checked the link to preseason projections provided by Forschy, and it confirms it: the Cards were “supposed” to win 84-86 games. And that was assuming some sort of contribution from Alex Reyes, I’m sure.

I’ll reiterate what I said in a previous post. I’d rather play well and win 90 games while missing the playoffs, than hover barely over .500, win 84 or 85 games, and squeak into a wildcard spot. And the difference between those two outcomes, is the quality of play exhibited by other teams — something over which the Cardinals have very nearly zero control. So recite the serenity prayer, pull for your players, and hope for October baseball.

I’ve already said I think the season was a success. (Mabry gone) + (beat preseason win total forecasts) = success. But for those who think it’s currently a failure: what if the Cards went in to Chicago, beat the Cubs 2 of 3 and knocked the baby bears out of the division title and into the crapshoot wildcard game…against the winner of a Cards/Dodgers game, because the Dodgers lost 2 of 3 over the weekend? Would that make the year a success? Or would the Cards need to beat the Dodgers in the play-in-to-a-play-in?

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the heads up on Ramon Urias and the 40-man roster necessity, DJ. I had no idea that the years in Mexico, being un-affiliated baseball, would count against him, so to speak.

I agree there’ll be a squeeze this winter. But I see plenty of candidates for dropping off the 40-man.

Start with Fowler, Cecil, and Gregerson. Ahh, to dream the impossible dream: a merit-based roster, not money-based.

More realistically there’s Tyson Ross, Dom Leone, Bud Norris, Chasen Shreve, Ty Webb (not the Caddyshack one), Francisco Pena, Patrick Wisdom, Conner Greene who throws hard but isn’t actually good, and a pair of sentimental favorites, Greg Garcia & Matt Bowman.

And I would hope the club will trade Jose Martinez to the DH league, and get a very good reliever back in the deal. It’s time to stop saying that Martinez is a “great hitter” or “outstanding bat.” Because he is not. He’s a very good hitter who pretty much kills you in the field and on the bases. That makes him a fine bench piece, but he should not be taking AB’s away from Tyler O’Neill.

That .300 average of Jose Martinez is pretty, and I like it too, I swear I do. But it makes people drunk, like the 103 MPH fastballs of Jordan Hicks. Folks see those numbers and they stop thinking straight. Tyler O’Neill has only 1/4 of the trips to the plate that Martinez does this season, and yet Tiny Kingman has generated 75-80% as much value as Martinez. And this, even though Martinez has indeed been the better hitter by a bit. But I digress. Really digress.

Anyway, Urias. Here’s what he hit in 2017 in the Mexican League:

.340/.433/.577

And here’s what he hit in AA for the Cards in 2018, his first shot at U.S. pro ball:

.333/.406/.589

Those slashlines that would make a corner outfielder blush. And the strikezone control was better than okay, with no signs he was sacrificing contact for power; whiffed 16% in Mexico, just 15% in the Texas League. Plus, the guy is a solid second base gloveman, and adequate baserunner. In other words, there’s no compelling reason to think he’ll have to move off the position.

So I think he’s a guy to be prioritized, at least ahead of many of those 2018 failed relief arms. I hope the front office feels the same. But based on the backward events of the past two years, I don’t trust Mo & Co. with any decision unless it involves a pitcher from the Japanese leagues.

[Bob Reed]

16) Ramon Urias

17) Ivan Herrera

18) Edmundo Sosa

19) Randy Arozarena

20) Jhon Torres
I agree with Grenadier that this big, slim 18-year-old has huuuge potential. The Cards appear to have unlocked additional power after acquiring him from the Injuns — and he was already hitting very well for the Cleveland farm, distinctly above average for his leagues in both the DSL and Arizona. Destroyed the Gulf Coast League in his brief time there, and B-Pro says his defense went from poor in 2017 to outstanding in 2018. This illustrates two facts, I think. (1)Players can change dramatically in a short time, at that young age. And (2)you really need a large sample size to feel that defensive numbers are reliable.

[Bob Reed]

Thank you for responding, Brian.

As far as smart business is concerned…let’s say the Birds were to sign, over the upcoming winter, a relatively obscure 16-year-old Nicaraguan middle infield talent for $300K even though the kid was generally valued by the industry as a ~$150K talent. If that player goes on to be a Greg Garcia style bench contributor, according to Fangraphs that’s more than $20,000,000 of surplus value. That’s what I call very smart business for the Cardinals, relative initial “overspend” or not. And maybe I’m naïve, but as for your concerns about inflation, I can’t see a purchase or two or three of that magnitude having much inflationary impact on the int’l market in general.

And I suppose that when it comes to the concept of overspending, there’s a broader point that I should have emphasized earlier. As a general rule, I would argue that (individual cases notwithstanding of course) on the whole it is nearly impossible to overpay in the domestic draft/international amateur markets, just as conversely it is nearly impossible to get a bargain when buying the top shelf free agents at the MLB level. As a rule, amateur players, whether domestic or international, are invariably the best investment a team can make.

Again, just one decent MLB bench player generates as much surplus value at the MLB level as the cost of four entire years of international signing classes, and that’s assuming a club uses their whole $5M budget — which in my opinion they always should. But you probably already guessed that.

No one knows better than a Cardinal fan that pittances sometimes turn into princes. See Albert Pujols, Matt Carpenter, et. al.. Therefore any dough left un-invested is an opportunity missed, in my book. Now, I’ll grant that the calendar certainly does make a difference. If this were next May, and the Birds had a bunch of money they hadn’t spent yet, that would be different, maybe there really wouldn’t be anyone of substance worth buying before the June 15 deadline. But young talented players will emerge between now and June. It’s almost axiomatic, given their youthfulness.

Anyway I’ve spoken my disgruntled mind on the subject. My powers of persuasion were pretty weak tea, I guess. Thanks again for responding at any rate.

Oh, and I like Lane Thomas. Lane Thomas thread. I like him. If most of the 2018 power sticks, he can start at CF for awhile for someone. BPro loves his glove, has him worth +5 runs per 150 games as a pro, as a centerfielder, over a sample of 400+ games. And one more thing. People ooohed and aaahed over his big blast of a homer in the Triple-A title game v. Durham. But I liked the triple more. He was fooled a little, out in front and reaching for it, but kept his base, kept the weight distributed well, didn’t truly lunge except for his hands, and hit it off the LF wall on one hop.

[Bob Reed]

I realize there’ll probably be a need for a first baseman after Carp’s contract expires post-2020, but I like Dylan Carlson much more in RF than anywhere else. He could fit there by 2021, or mayyybe even some point in 2020, with Tyler O’Neill shifting to LF after Marcell Ozuna presumably leaves via free agency.

I have heard that Carlson has the natural agility, the graceful footwork for first base, and it would be kinda nice for a change to have a plus defender at the cold corner. But the thing is, you’re wasting his valuable arm over there.

Carlson has played 140 games in right field as a pro, and he’s gunned 22 runners while committing just 5 errors. Tyler O. on the other hand, has played nearly double that, 260 games in RF, and has a 25/13 assist/error ratio. Not bad at all, but not nearly the equal of Carlson.

I have a feeling it’s Montero or Gorman who winds up at 1B, and they’ll need a post-Carp stopgap for a year before either can take over long term starting in 2022. Something like that.

I say all this, and then they’ll probably just give Carp a 3-year extension this winter.

[Bob Reed]

They got rid of John Mabry. That alone makes the season a success for me, as he was holding back this year’s team, and every future team, for as long as he was here.

How much have things changed since Mabry’s departure? Well, the team OPS is FIFTY points higher since the All-Star break, which is an extraordinary thing, and would be worth over a full season somewhere between 10 and 12 wins….and remember, that’s without contributions from either Tommy Pham or Luke Voit, who are slaughtering the ball for other organizations, now that they’ve been freed from Mabry’s toxic influence.

The future has no limit, now that Mabry’s gone and taken with him the most counterproductive hitting approach in baseball. Add to that the fact that the club has already topped their Vegas number (85.5)and at least matched the computer model win forecasts, and YES, it has been a rousing success.

Improve the bullpen, release Dexter Fowler, and get Tyler O’Neill into the everyday lineup in RF, and with average health you’re got a 93-95 win team next year. (Unfortunately, with Mike Shildt’s defer-to-the-veterans neurosis, O’Neill might never start again unless they get rid of Jose Martinez this winter. Shildt is good at some things, but he’s braindead in this matter, as bad as any manager for any team that I’ve observed in 45 years. Played Yadi an insane total of 27 games in a row. Maddeningly re-installed Fowler into the starting lineup in place of Harrison Bader. And now forcing Jose M. — a born DH if ever there was one — to embarrass himself out there, when there is a future MLB star sitting on the bench.)

It will be disappointing to finish third in the division this year, but there’s very little you can do about the quality of the other teams. Anyway, I’d rather win 90 games and miss the playoffs than win 85 and sneak in as a wildcard team. Call me nuts, but I just want to see high quality baseball.

[Bob Reed]

11) Dylan Carlson
Posted a .731 OPS in the FSL at age 19, with a .136 isolated slugging.
At 21 in the same league, Frank Thomas had a .785 and .122.
At 21 in the same league, Jeff Bagwell had a .109 isolated slugging.
And at 23 in the same league, Matt Carpenter hit .219/.286/.342. With a poorer BB/K than Carlson.

12) Ramon Urias
Across AA and AAA he slashed .300/.356/.516, and played solid second base defense, with okay baserunning. The older brother of uber-prospect Luis Urias, Ramon is going to be a starter for someone at the MLB level in the next 3 or 4 years. The guy can hit, and his contact rates are sound.

13) Ivan Herrera
As Wiley pointed out, the Panamanian backstop has posted extraordinary numbers at the dish. In his two years he’s had a 155 wRC+ in the Dominican Summer League in 2017, and then topped it with a 160 in the Gulf Coast League this year. Glove looks fine so far. Might be a special player.

14) Lane Thomas

15) Edmundo Sosa
Like Lane Thomas, Edmundo made it all the way to AAA at age 22. Also like Thomas, he should have an MLB career of some duration due to a balance of O and D contributions. With better plate discipline he’s a starting shortstop for someone. Or a superior utilityman, at least.

[Bob Reed]

I agree with Pugs, Carioca. It’s Tyson Ross in a relative landslide if the money’s the same.

Ross has been really good more recently than Waino (2015 v 2014), which is a small point in his favor. But the much larger point is that Tyson is sooo much younger. I think there’s a non-trivial chance that the 31-year-old Ross rebounds to a slightly lesser version of his best self, and even Tyson Ross Lite would be a solid #3/4 starter on a 90-win team.

But with all due respect, CC, I feel like the premise doesn’t fit the StL personnel anyway. In 2019 Gant and Gomber should both be long men/spot starters in my opinion, with Ponce migrating into short relief and Hudson competing with Reyes and Weaver for the final rotation slot alongside Martinez, Wacha, Mickolas, and Flaherty. With average health, and if they figure out how Weaver is tipping his pitches, it should be an excellent rotation again next year.

[Bob Reed]

“…international cap money the Cardinals could not use, anyway.”

Could you clarify this statement, Brian? Because I know what Derrick Goold means when he says it, and his assertion is I believe provably inaccurate.

I have debated DG during his chats, and he has made quite clear that his underlying premise when he says the Cards “cannot possibly spend” their 2018 international budget, is that there aren’t any unsigned 16-18 year-old kids out there who could be good enough to justify making room for them on the 2 Cardinal DSL rosters.

For me there are three enormous flaws with Goold’s argument.

1) As well as the two Redbird DSL teams played this year, I can guarantee you they were not overpopulated with future major leaguers. In other words there is always and forever room available for a good prospect — and especially so when the parent organization has doubled up on teams in a given league.

2) The international teen amateur market isn’t just the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, but also includes other significant baseball nations like Panama, Nicaragua, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and at least one or two others that don’t pop to mind right now. Goold’s claim whether he makes it explicit or not is that there isn’t a single significant young hitter or pitcher worth signing right now in any of those aforementioned seven baseball hotbeds. I very seriously doubt that this is the case; but even if it were true, there is still the oft-neglected fact number 3.

3) This year’s signing period doesn’t end in the fall, or the winter, or even the spring. In fact it doesn’t end until next June 15 unless I’m mistaken. So by saying that the Cards “can’t spend” their international bonus money, Goold is by extension also claiming that there will not be — at any point between now and next June 15 — any young pitcher or position player emerging in any of the above countries. That is nearly a statistical impossibility.

Put numbers 1, 2, and 3 together, and Goold’s case is baseless. In my opinion.

[Bob Reed]

Carioca:
Gracias, sir, for the Taveras shout-out. I do keep a (neurotically) close eye on the DSL, compared to most normal fans.

Vegas:
Nunez was initially contacted by the Cards way back when he was 14, and a rapport was established. I feel that probably informed the relative pittance for which he signed.

8) Dylan Carlson
Don’t be tricked by the batting average; Dylan Carlson Was an above average batter in the Florida State League, with a 112 wRC+, and in spite of a mediocre .286 BABIP. From 2017 to 2018, Dylan decreased his strikeouts by 25%, improved his walks by 20%, and bumped his isolated slugging by more than 40%. And his defense is graded far above average at Baseball Prospectus, as he is 14.6 runs above average in 277 career games. Solid baserunner, too. I have him just inside my top 100 overall prospects.

9) Ramon Urias
Destroyed the Mexican League last year (164 wRC+) and the Texas League this year at age 23 (170 wRC+), with sturdy plate discipline, average defense at the keystone, and okay baserunning. His AAA struggles don’t bother me much, as 2018 was his first taste of U.S. pro baseball. One of the 8-10 most overlooked prospects in the game right now, for any organization. Future 2-3 WAR starter, and perhaps better in his prime. Small man, big bat.

10) Malcom Nunez
You probably never heard of him.

[Bob Reed]

I am overwhelmed by your generous words, Pugs. Your good humor has frequently served as a model for all of us to follow, especially yours truly. The internet can always use more magnanimity, and you bring that with brio.

As for the other thing, whatever the majority decides is fine with me re 8, 9, 10.

(I’m getting close to voting for Nunez, Pugs. Pretty darn close.)

[Bob Reed]

“The shift isn’t a long-term problem. IF you have hitters so stupid that they refuse to learn to hit against an obvious shift, they need to go back to the minors. Learn to bunt and make them pay.”

Exactly, Diz. Well said.
Mike Schmidt and Steve Garvey and Jim Edmonds and many other heavy hitters knew how to bunt. If pitchers can learn to bunt, so can sluggers. At least, well enough to discourage clubs from shifting against them.

I do think Smoltz is a terrific analyst, and a bright and entertaining broadcaster. Not “entertaining” in the clownish Kevin Millar mold or the wretched, screeching Chris Russo. Entertaining, as in insightful and sometimes surprising, and not the least bit beholden to either hyper-traditionalists or the more narrow-minded ideologues among the SABR set. So I’m not crazy about the idea of disagreeing with Smoltzy. But I do. Forgive me if I ramble, but I want to be thorough.

Tanking has already been addressed in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. Under the previous CBA, from 2012-2016, when the Cubs were the most prominently tanking team, the ethically questionable teams profited in three ways. (1)Higher draft pick. (2)Bloated draft budget, compared to winning teams. (3)Similarly bloated international prospect budget. If you think point #3 doesn’t matter much, then you should check how many millions the Cubs paid to acquire Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, the star prospects who were eventually key to major Cub trades for pitching.

But losing on purpose no longer profits a team in the same 3 ways. Now every team is pretty much permitted the same international budget. And the draft budgets are now compressed, closer to one another than they were from 2012-16.

So teams can continue to radically slash their payrolls and lose on purpose as the Cubs did from 2012-2014. But it won’t generate the advantages that it did for the Cubs. You can’t ever stop teams from being greedy or stupid. But you CAN stop rewarding them for it. And that’s already happening.

But we are not at some perfect Platonic baseball ideal, I don’t think.
There are two substantive problems with the game, in my opinion. Too many strikeouts, too many homers.

So lower the mound 2-3 inches to cut down the K’s.
And deaden the baseballs just enough to turn 10-15 percent of the homers into doubles and triples.

You’re welcome, Mr. Manfred!

[Bob Reed]

I love Malcom Nunez, and he’s got a puncher’s chance to be something special. But I’m forced to disagree with your conclusion, Pugs. If we count him as eligible, Carson’s still one of the 3 or 4 best backstop prospects in baseball. He has an excellent defensive reputation, nobody disputes it. And…

Carson Kelly was an above average AA hitter at 21.
Then he was an above average AAA hitter at 22.
And then above average in AAA again at 23. And also at 23 (this year) he walked exactly as often as he struck out. All of these things are really good signs, and tend to be extremely predictive.

Even money says he’ll be a legit MLB hitter, roughly league average, once he gets the playing time. It’s unfair in my opinion to claim that he’s had “three chances” when he hasn’t even had one yet where he got as much as a third of the AB’s given to good old non-prospect Bo Hart some years back. Carson’s only stretch of anything approaching consistent playing time was last year when he got a grand total of 25 plate appearances in the 8 games between September 24 and October 1st.

In Mike Trout’s first shot at the majors he had 135 trips to the plate and batted .220. It didn’t mean anything, of course. And very likely neither does a handful of Carson Kelly AB’s scattered across 3 different seasons. Is it frustrating? Yup. Does it mean anything? I really, really doubt it.

[Bob Reed]

“Elvis Monterey.” I like that. Combine Pugs’ and Pads’ nomenclatures. Has a real ring to it.

And I’ll take Andrew Knizner at #6, please.

[Bob Reed]

While I admire your tenacity, Pugs, I have to go with Elehuris Montero at #5, please.

Dominated his league at a young age, got markedly better as the season went on — in terms of both power and plate discipline — and according to the numbers at Baseball Prospectus, despite somewhat shaky error totals, he’s been a solid defender at every single professional stop.

I had him #2 in the system behind Alex Reyes (or third behind O’Neill and Reyes, if you consider O’Neill eligible), and roughly top 40 in all the minors. Looks like an above average regular in the long term.

[Bob Reed]

The velocity is definitely just fine, Mike.

In fact, Weaver’s velocity is slightly UP compared to last year. Also he’s throwing the curveball slightly MORE often than when he was dominating last season…so at the very least it doesn’t look like an injury is to blame, and we can’t in all fairness blame it on a limited repertoire — regardless of what Mr. Horton says on the air.

The Cards need to bring in Chris Carpenter and have him watch the young guy pitch in a game situation. Carp was known for spotting a big tipper. Helped Waino a couple of times when Adam was young(er), I believe.

[Bob Reed]

Weaver is tipping his pitches. That is the sole plausible explanation. Why Maddux can’t figure this out and fix it, after 5 months, is beyond me.

The velocity is the same as when Weaver was dominant last year. The movement is the same. The repertoire is identical. But the hitters know what’s coming.

For two months in 2017 Weaver was one of the most effective pitchers in baseball, with 58 K’s and just 8 walks! Only 8 earned runs allowed in those 7 starts plus a relief appearance, covering a little over 40 innings.

Then the Cubs lit him up. Then the Brewers. And now it’s pretty much everyone. This is a guy who was as dominant as anyone in the minors for two years, and then the same in the majors. And now, despite the same velocity & movement, he stinks?! Only tipping can explain it.

Anybody remember when John Smoltz was broadcasting a Cards/SF series a couple years back, and he talked about Cueto and Samardzija, who were then pitching for the Giants? Casual as you please, Smoltz mentioned that the reason Cueto got lit up as a Royal, and Samardzija got murdered when on the White Sox, was that they were BOTH tipping their pitches.

Smoltz said it like it was no big revelation, like it was in fact common knowledge, but personally I never heard or read anything else about it, before or since. I strongly suspect that pitch-tipping is a MUCH larger part of the game than is publicly advertised — for obvious reasons.

And Weaver has been tipping, I have no doubt whatsoever.

[Bob Reed]

First, thanks for all the feedback, guys.
I was pretty sure the Cards would have the strongest group of (very) young position players. Just didn’t know the gap would be so pronounced between themselves and all other farm systems. Makes me want to take a time machine to 2023.

Reverie aside, let’s check on Ludwin Jimenez, Wiley.

Ludwin was first among all DSL 16-year-olds in innings pitched, and #1 in both strikeout metrics, with 9.8 K/9 IP and a 26.1% rate of fanning batters. That’s with a minimum of 40 IP.

Unfortunately only a handful of 16-year-olds qualified, roughly 10 or so. So let’s expand the rankings to include Jimenez’ 17-yr-old peers. There were 67 of them who tossed at least 40 innings this season, so that makes for a much more meaningful sample.

If you place Ludwin Jimenez within the 67 17-yr-olds, he’d be 5th in innings, 6th in K/9, and 7th in K%. Pretty darn impressive, I’d say.

Of course, all of this comes with the massive caveat that pitchers — unlike hitters — can’t be effectively graded by their stat lines alone. (But it’s always better to be healthy & successful than not.)

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