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I’m flummoxed by this deal. Contreras is roughly Nootbaar in the deal, and the ATL pitcher is roughly McGreevy. Am I missing something because that seems super light compared to Nootbaar, Donovan and Graceffo like they allegedly wanted from us.
Looks to me like the just picked up two rotation pieces and a lead-off hitter. Muller throws harder than Liberatore and has another plus pitch. McGreevey is a good comparable to the other pitcher except that he is one year ahead of him and nearly ready for the jump to the majors. The outfielder had 85 steals and hit .330 across a couple different levels.
I’ve wanted Bassitt the past two offseasons. Shot down again. I guess I had my sights set too high (21mil AAV).
The signing of Contreras brings a lot more than statistics to the table. It brings great leadership,
intensity to win, and a knowledge of NLC hitters to the Cardinals.All that’s fine GC, if you rate the ATL farm highly.
Looks extremely light compared to what OAK wanted from us. They trade away the best player and get back the third best player in a 3 team deal?
Your reasoning behind that opinion would give it better weight.
Now that ATL has graduated, and traded away (Olsen), many of their prospects, #1 and #6 doesn’t say much from a farm ranked in the bottom 5.
Just because Oakland was asking a lot for Murphy doesn’t mean anybody thought he was worth that much. A lot of fluffing and puffing but nobody bit. Steamer projects .238 with 20 homers. Meh.
BB,
Nootbaar / Donovan / McGreevey
for
Miller / Ruiz / Tarnok / Salinas and a washed up backup catcher (Pina)——
If you want to do that trade, the package OAK received isn’t light compared to what is reported they asked from us.
If you decline that trade, for us, it’s light.
Am I missing something
Brewers should be pleased, but I’m not sure what to make of this trade either. An explicitly included PTBNL is one thing, but here it’s almost like there’s a later deal they’ll make to compensate for this one, but that would be against the MLB rules/ethics, right?
If you decline that trade, for us, it’s light.
I can’t imagine who would want to do that trade. Atlanta doesn’t have a good system now, so we have about 6-7 prospects ahead of their #1.
“The Braves gave up a lot. Number 1, 6 & 18 prospects plus Contreras and others.”
Other than Contreras, the Braves actually gave up very little. Very, very, very, very little.
Their #1 prospect is not top 100, and has a “book value” significantly below Matthew Liberatore for heaven’s sake, per the Baseball Trade Values website. As 25 said, the Cards have innumerable better prospects than Atlanta’s (former) best. According to the BTV site, the Birds have 8 farmhands better than Muller. And that doesn’t include Leonardo Bernal — our #6 guy per Baseball Prospectus.
Sure, younger Contreras has a lot of value. But Oakland didn’t get Contreras! What Oakland got was a sack of magic beans. Or maybe more like half a sack. Total trade value at BTV? Just over 14. For context, Liberatore by himself is 12. Murphy was 51. Burleson is 13. Noot + Donovan + Graceffo = 85. There had to have been an offer Mo could have made, that was much less than Noot/Donovan/Graceffo but still much stronger than Oakland eventually got. Because there is a LOT of space between 14 and 85.
Oakland tried to bluff Mozeliak, who didn’t fold. (Good for him, truly.) But unfortunately, Mo also didn’t counter with an offer good enough to hook the A’s. And that was his responsibility. We now know that the A’s were NOT totally unreasonable, utterly detached from reality in their demands. And so this is partly Mo’s fault, it must be said. And this extraordinarily shabby return for Oakland should have their knowledgeable fans asking for David Forst’s job.
It seems to me that the Oakland fans should be asking for Forst’s head. The As got greedy and thought Mo would bite since he announced he was looking for a catcher. They ended up getting a far less package instead of just holding on to Murphy and waiting for a better offer to come up.
One thing we don’t know for sure is whether or not Mo made a counter offer. He may have made a different offer or he may have walked away thinking the As were too far off from what he would be willing to give up. He then pivoted to Contreras and eliminated one of Murphy suitors. Once the Cardinals were out, Oakland may not have had enough interested parties to wage a bidding war to Murphy.
The A’s ask of the Cardinals has been confirmed, and the Cardinals moved on when the A’s wouldn’t budge.
The A’s had significantly more leverage with the Cardinals because:
1) We didn’t have a catcher at all
2) They knew Murphy was our top targetTheir ask changed quite a bit when the team most desperate for a catcher went to Plan B.
The A’s had significantly less leverage with the Braves, because the Braves had three catchers.
What’s funny is the Braves traded Langeliers to the A’s last year to get Olson, and now traded for Murphy this year. Murphy’s trade was enabled by the presence of Langeliers.
I have a hard time understanding why Libertore is rated higher than Mueller looking at their stats and their stuff. Perhaps Mueller get slighted for being the fourth round, pick rather than a first? Mueller was able to keep his ERA under 3.50 with an impressive Wip, opponent batting average, and K’s to IP. Liberatore’s season was much different. An ERA over 5 and allowing more base runners is a step back. They tuned him up for over a 300 batting average in the majors. He gets hit pretty well as I tend to think he throws way too many pitches over the heart of the plate. I’m surprised he hasn’t dropped down in the 20s. The only major league ready pitchers we could’ve offered we’re Woodford and Thompson. While Graceffo is the best prospect of the bunch, he hasn’t pitched an inning in AAA. So I can see why the ask was Donovan and Nootbaar. In the end, I think the Braves had the better offer in terms of the A’s needs.
I have a hard time understanding why Libertore is rated higher than Mueller
It would be velo, spin rates, vertical and horizontal movement, difference in velo between pitches, etc. If a guy’s got it, it doesn’t seem to matter if batters hit it, and if he doesn’t have it, it doesn’t matter if they can’t hit it.
Bob, I thought Mo set his own deadline on acquiring a catcher by the end of the meetings and he simply didn’t want extended conversations for Murphy while other options possibly flew off the board.
Not saying his approach was wrong, and I like to tell myself he has other needs he wants to meet, so he moved on.
Mo also didn’t counter with an offer good enough to hook the A’s.
One thing we don’t know for sure is whether or not Mo made a counter offer.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting Mo countered with an offer of the A’s picking from two of:
– Gorman
– Carlson
– Burleson
– YepezThe As would have been foolish not to take that deal. Especially if Mo added a second tier pitching prospect.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting Mo countered with an offer of the A’s picking from two of:
– Gorman
– Carlson
– Burleson
– YepezThis tells me that the Cards are very high on Noot and Donovan. At the very least, you’d have to find a CFer to replace Carlson and some lefty pop if those were the two guys who went.
It’s sort of unimaginable that the As liked the return they got back yesterday more than getting legit CFer and 3B starters with all that control.
It’s sort of unimaginable that the As liked the return they got back yesterday more than getting legit CFer and 3B starters with all that control.
I don’t think they like what they wound up with more than what the Cardinals were willing to offer. They were playing hardball, the Cardinals called their bluff.
Their possible returns were then greatly diminished.
“Ken Rosenthal is reporting Mo countered with an offer of the A’s picking from two of:
– Gorman
– Carlson
– Burleson
– Yepez”If so, then I’ll retract 90% of my Mo criticism. Even I wouldn’t have included Dylan. Maybe Mo needed to have a pitcher (non-Hence/Graceffo) on the table. But really, when you add it all up it looks like the A’s simply fouled up.
“The As would have been foolish not to take that deal. Especially if Mo added a second-tier pitching prospect.”
Agreed 110%, Cranny. And a pitching prospect shouldn’t have even been a necessary add-on. Maybe Gorman or Carlson plus a pair of mid-level pitching prospects.
But I think Mo saw that the A’s were being unreasonable, and (unfortunately) grabbed Contreras The Elder when he had the chance, at too many years and too much money. Meanwhile, the Brewers would wind up swooping in and getting Contreras The Younger for next to nothing. Yeesh. He appears to be almost as good as his older brother, he’s five years younger, and he makes no money. Brewers win big again. Makes them co-favorites for the division in ’23, once you factor in their substantial managerial advantage.
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