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This might belong in the “Trade ideas” thread, but I’ve been trying to think up a good deal for Bieber. As far as an ace or “almost ace” he seems the most available, and for what it’s worth I’m not a Lopez fan, he doesn’t seem much better than the top 7-9 guys the Cards could just stick with.
To start, the Indians need OF bats, and bats in general.
Cards get Bieber
Indians get Yepez, Moises Gomez, Burleson and WoodfordI’m guessing that’s not enough?
Cards can throw in VerHagen and Pauly D if they’d like! ha
I’m guessing that’s not enough?
I’d be thrilled if it was enough, so that seems way light. Sub in O’Neill or Nootbaar for Yepez, and it might be a fit. I’d also be surprised if Cleveland would take on 4 guys from the 40 man. Maybe something like O’Neill/Nootbaar, Burleson and Graceffo or Hence.
Yadi 10mil, Dickerson 5mil, Pujols 2mil
Signing Contreras was just a reallocation those funds above.
I’m working from memory here, but didn’t Wainwright make about the same last season as this one?
“Payroll will go up”. Not a tough call when you factor in raises, a huge arb class and paying the freight on Arenado instead of COL doing it.
It’s like payroll didn’t budge, when you look at the roster today. Just in-house raises.
Its early. Trading a couple low wage newbs for someone with a substantial contract will increase payroll.
It’s like payroll didn’t budge, when you look at the roster today. Just in-house raises.
Pretty true. Then when you recognize that every MLB team just got $30M from the sale of BamTech…kind of a slap in the face. Of course, the off-season is not done so there’s still a chance they add some more.
“I say resigning Montgomery is a high priority.”
I agree 100% that given ages and health histories Monty would be by far the most logical guy from among the Opening Day rotation to get a 3-5 year contract extension. But it simply can’t happen, because his agent is $cott Bora$ and if you want to retain a Bora$ client you have to pay full market price — and almost invariably you have to wait until the offseason free agent market to do so.
“As of now the rotation is as big of a mess as it was the last two years. A gaggle of injury comebacks and performance question marks.”
The rotation is indeed a huge question mark, and it doesn’t help that the 4th or 5th best starter (Woodford) will never get a shot due to managerial malfeasance. But as much as the 2023 rotation is a concern, it’s 2024 that’s a gaping maw of confusion. For the 2024 rotation and beyond, there will have to be a trade or two or three. Otherwise it’s, what, Hudson, Matz, Graceffo, and two mystery arms?
Or to put it another way, among those under team control beyond 2023, who in the entire Cardinal organization would you bet even money to post 150+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA in 2024? Nobody I can see. I’d bet on Woodford before Hudson or Matz at this point, due to health concerns. And we know it won’t be Woodford no matter how effectively he pitches in 2023.
On an unrelated note, thanks for the trivia, Andujar. I knew Ripken was waaay up there in GIDP’s, but I didn’t figure on any lefty batters — never knew Yaz was such a double play guy, or Jeter.
“It would be foolish to trade Edman. He’s a key player in our line up offensively and defensively.”
“Edman probably would bring more in a trade than any Cardinal other than Goldschmidt and Arenado. In fact, I’m certain of it.”
Agreed on the first point. I’d really like to see Tommy get an extension that runs through a couple of his post-arbitration seasons. He’s durable, valuable, and will be under-compensated because such a huge chunk of his value comes from defense + baserunning.
But as to the second point, I don’t think Tommy’s trade market value is as high as his actual on-field value, for the same reason. His best skills are too subtle. But hitting is easy to see, easy to measure. And power is easiest of all. Why, even among our learned Birdfan brethren here, there are some who’ll swear for instance that Kyle Schwarber is a really good baseball player, a better player than any current Cardinal outfielder. But in fact Schwarber is worse than any current Cardinal outfielder once defense and baserunning are taken into account.
Anyway, addressing trade values, even though Goldy & Arenado are coming off MVP type seasons, and are almost surely headed for the Hall Of Fame in 10-12 years, they just don’t have immense trade value because of their salaries. (Think what the Birds gave up to get them. Especially Nolan.) The category of Excellent But Expensive And Also Old, is a tough one to value. And many organizations don’t want to touch it.
As for Tommy’s trade value, if we take a gander at the Baseball Trade Values website — which isn’t infallible, but it’s certainly objective — we see that the most valuable trade chip the Cardinals have is probably Jordan Walker. Here’s the top 10, per that website, ranked by presumed surplus value through all club control seasons, in millions:
Walker 61.6
Carlson 49.9
Donovan 37.9
Gorman 33.5
Noot 32.8
Edman 30.7
O’Neill 26.1
Winn 25.5
Hence 22.4
Helsley 22.3
Graceffo 15.0If you’re counting, yes, I went to 11. In honor of Spinal Tap. If you’re interested the link to Trade Values is here: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
I don’t understand the enormous value attached to Dylan Carlson, to be honest. Sean Murphy is just over 50MM in value, almost exactly the same as Carlson, and yet I dare say there’s no way in the world that anyone with the Cards or A’s would expect Oakland to accept Carlson straight-up for Murphy.
And Tink Hence, a pitcher who threw a handful of Low-A innings, having a value comparable Helsley, O’Neill, and Winn, is pretty stunning. A testament to Tink’s talent.
I think Carlson holds value because he is still young, athletic, and a switch hitter. He’s maybe a little bit like Jose Cruz. Did not really take off like we hoped he would, so we gave up on him and he picked then to take off.
Bobby Tolan was another. Never hit much for us despite world-class speed and a sweet swing. Trade him and he blossoms, only to tear his Achilles after two really good years, and lose a lot of one of his main assets, speed.
But the jury is still out on Carlson. I think he will put it together, maybe around the second half of 2023, and we will be glad we kept him.
Man, I’d love it if Carlson turns into Jose Cruz. And I just checked on Cruz’s numbers.
Talk about late bloomers. From ages 28-36, Jose was worth more than 40 WAR(!) at Baseball-Reference. Yowza. Led the league in hits at 35. Got some MVP votes at 37. Still an above-average bat at 38. Just needed to get to Houston in order to blossom, I guess. And all the Cardinals got for him was cash, apparently.
Speaking just for myself, if I had to choose I’d take Nootbaar before Carlson right now. Edman, too. Not sure about Gorman or Donovan. All in all it’s just a bit weird to me, BikeMike. It’s as though they value Carlson as a 3.5-to-4 WAR guy, and that’s simply not been established as his MLB ability yet. I think they’re still giving meaningful weight to his prospect status from a couple years ago. And maybe they should, I dunno.
The org was sold enough on Carlson to trade Bader. If he hadn’t hurt his hand, or whatever it was, and faded out the later part of the season, we would be saying something different now.
Yeah, MLTV and Trade Rumors always over value prospects. Some you hit on some you don’t.
A running joke in every Trade Rumors chat for 5 years has been about what the Angels could get for Jo Adell. “The Angels are not trading Jo Adell”. Guess what, they should have traded Jo Adell.
I like our players, once a Cardinal, always a Cardinal. But if you want to upgrade in any way, you have to give to get.
What we know so far, per sources and reports:
Braves get Murphy
Brewers get Contreras, RHP Yeager (from ATL), RHP Payamps (from OAK).
A’s get LHP Muller, C Piña, RH prospect Tarnok (from ATL), OF Ruiz (from MIL).@JoelSherman1@kileymcd@ByRobertMurray @JeffPassan
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 12, 2022
I’m flummoxed by this deal. Contreras is roughly Nootbaar in the deal, and the ATL pitcher is roughly McGreevy. Am I missing something because that seems super light compared to Nootbaar, Donovan and Graceffo like they allegedly wanted from us.
Jj’s heart is breaking
BREAKING: Right-hander Chris Bassitt and the Toronto Blue Jays are in agreement on a three-year, $63 million contract, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Story on Toronto making a big move and adding to its rotation, free at ESPN: https://t.co/aoqDXD69gp
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 12, 2022
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