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1TD, I agree that there are a lot of historical examples of pitchers like Suppan who pitched like aces in the playoffs or even for a season or 2. However, if you were given a choice, before the game started, of Suppan, Maddux, Smoltz or Glavine in their prime to start 10 World Series games, who would you choose?
stlcard25…I agree, but every rotation has an “ace” of that 4 or 5 man rotation and normally he gets the baseball for opening day festivities. In the case of the best guy taking the baseball in game 1 of a play-off or WS, obviously the luxury of being able to do so quite often isn’t present. Just as that same luxury isn’t always present in a game 7. One of many examples would be game 7 of the ’06 NLCS.
forsch31…Well, let me see. I’ll have to think about this…Haha! I don’t know who my exact choice would be, but it certainly wouldn’t be The Soup…Haha! I’m simply trying to highlight that nothing’s guaranteed by a so-called ace and that in the post-season, youneverknow…
Seems silly to argue back and forth! Of course an ace number 1 and 2 don’t guarantee wins but over the long haul they will Winn more often than the 3 or 4 starters! Seems obvious to me! We don’t have a solid 1 or 2! We have a bunch of good 3 4 and 5! So, when we send out out 3 and 4 which are really our 1 and 2 they won’t fair as well against a true number 1 and 2! Hence our 1 and 9 record in our last 10! Quintana and Mikolas are good pitchers but Nola and Wheeler are better! If they match up every time are Nola and Wheeler gonna win every time! Of course not but they will win about 2/3 and that’s good enough! People feared playing the Diamondbacks in the 99- 2002 era! Why? Schilling and Johnson! We don’t have a single starting pitcher that when we play the other fan base says oh no not him! We just don’t and haven’t since Carpenter and a much younger Wainwright and for 2 half years Flaherty! We won’t most likely won’t win until we have at least 1 and most likely 2 of those guys!
Sometimes I think the big Cardinal bosses adhere to a philosophy of a former Cardinal pitcher in the sense that they formulate a ballclub with the intention of just being good enough to win the NLC or sneak into the post-season via a WC berth. Once they get their foot in the door, they take on the mindset that tells them, “youneverknow”…
Even in the event of Flaherty returning to the type of pitcher that could be called top of the rotation, I wouldn’t place too much in his ability to swing a post-season in the Cardinal’s favor. Although he features a respectable 3.52 post-season ERA, he’s 1-3 in 4 GS in post-season play.
1tD, you are correct! That is exactly how the bosses are playing it! And you never know! We might get lucky one year but I always go back to that 2019 NLCS and look at those starting pitcher match ups and it’s not a surprise what happened!
The Redbirds collectively hit .130 in that NLCS, but Game #1 was the one that really hurt. Anabal Sanchez (116-119 4.06 career ERA) allowed the Cardinals only 1 hit in 7.2 IP’ed in what was arguably the best pitching performance by a DC pitcher in that 4 game sweep catastrophe.
What’s crazy is I thought our bast chance to win was game 1 and Mikolas pitched well but Sanchez looked like he did with Detroit! Dominant! The other 3 match ups I knew we were in trouble!
I think this year’s playoffs highlights the need for better pitching.
World Series:
Astros batted .240
Phillies batted .163ALCS:
Astros batted .238
Yankees batted .162NLCS:
Phillies .237
Padres .202ALDS:
Yankees .182
Cleveland .247
Astros .217
Mariners .195NLDS:
Phillies .271
Braves .180
Padres .239
Dodgers .227ALWC:
Cleveland .171
Rays .115
Mariners .270
Jays .271NLWC:
Padres .240
Mets .185
Phillies .158
Cardinals .185So we actually outhit the Phillies.
I think every year’s post-season highlights a quote that’s attributed to The Ol’ Perfesser…”Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa.”
We need that starting pitcher that we are comfortable throwing 7 or 8 innings and we know he will get through most tough situations in a postseason game.
I agree Forsch, but it doesn’t seem like today’s game even affords a SP’er a chance to work out of trouble after somewhere in the vicinity of the 5th or 6th inning. First sign of trouble, they hand the baseball to the BP. I’m beginning to believe that in the not too distant future, a CG shutout will be as rare as a no hitter. Seriously.
I doubt there’s anything to do to make the team more likely to win in October, other than:
1) Make them more likely to get to October in the first place, via various upgrades.
2) Add hitters or pitchers with great playoff track records, or get a better tactical manager.———————————————————-
Somebody said something about how the Cards haven’t had as much success since Albert Pujols left. It feels that way, for sure. But….
2001-2011
994-787
.558
3rd-best record in MLB2012-2021
843-673
.556
also 3rd-best record in MLBThe big difference of course is the October performance. From 2001-11, the Birds were managed by a first-ballot Hall Of Famer. There was very, very likely going to be a dropoff in managerial quality, regardless of who came next. But in Octobers, Mike Matheny actually acquitted himself very well, winning four series as an underdog and losing just once as a favorite. His overall October record of 21-22 is excellent. One game under .500 versus the best teams & managers is laudable. How laudable, exactly?
One game under .500 is coincidentally the cumulative postseason W-L record of Earl Weaver, Billy Southworth, Whitey Herzog, Bobby Cox, Casey Stengel, Tommy LaSorda, Miller Huggins, Leo Durocher, John McGraw, Al Lopez, Dick Williams, Walt Alston, Wilbert Robinson, and Bill McKechnie — Hall Of Famers, all, of course.
Then the Cards got rid of Matheny (thanks for nothing, Dexter) and they’ve gone 4-11 in the playoffs since. I don’t know how much the post-Matheny managers have hurt in October, but they certainly haven’t helped.
————————————————
But I’m rambling. This thread is nominally about the 2023 pitching staff. And I’d say the best chance the Cards have to win 95 games or the N.L. pennant (or both, ideally) is to admit NOW that certain pitchers are relievers and ONLY relievers (Hicks, Pallante, Thompson, Naughton) and try to cultivate a dominant bullpen rather than pursue an Ace or other rotation upgrade that will cost a bundle in cash or talent.
These are some ERA’s from 2022, when used in relief:
Zack Thompson 0.91 over 29.2 IP
Helsley 1.25
Woodford 2.30
Pallante 2.35
Stratton 2.78
Gallegos 3.05
Naughton 3.24Hicks 4.37
Cabrera 4.63
VerHagen 6.65Between all of these guys, plus Liberatore, Pacheco, and whoever loses out on the rotation competition (presumably solely between Matz & Hudson), a decent manager should be able to cobble together a strong relief corps. And maybe Marmol will be decent this year. Maybe he’ll improve on his freshman job performance. Stranger things have happened.
Hard to argue against you, Andujar.
With Pujols on the team, LaRussa was 40-34 in October. And obviously two World Serious championships.Well, I was limiting my thoughts to field managers. If we’re talking about players, Albert Pujols would have made Vern Rapp look good…Haha!
Bob, good post: the first 7 players on this list should be the spring favorites to be in the pen to start 2023.
Hicks, Cabby, Verhagen all need to get better, they lose control, which leads to walks, which leads to more pitches over the plate, which means runs! Sure, Hicks and Cabby can throw the ball really, really fast, but when you give up runs at which they did last year, IT DOES NOT MATTER!
——————————These are some ERA’s from 2022, when used in relief:
Zack Thompson 0.91 over 29.2 IP
Helsley 1.25
Woodford 2.30
Pallante 2.35
Stratton 2.78
Gallegos 3.05
Naughton 3.24Hicks 4.37
Cabrera 4.63
VerHagen 6.65Somebody said something about how the Cards haven’t had as much success since Albert Pujols left. It feels that way, for sure. But….
2001-2011
994-787
.558
3rd-best record in MLB2012-2021
843-673
.556
also 3rd-best record in MLBThe big difference of course is the October performance.
Nah, the big difference is that the Cards division got tremendously easier with the addition of Milwaukee in the late 90s and the later subtraction of Houston. You think the Cards would have had the same success if they had the Astros in their division instead of the poor house Brewers?
The dearth of October success is primarily due to the loss of Pujols and the fact that the team just hasn’t been constructed to be a front runner since the days of Albert and Carpenter and young Waino and Yadi. Mo is content to aim for 88 wins and hope for the best in the playoffs, and the fans gobble it up to the tune of 3.3 million plus tickets sold every single year. After all, the numbers say that the Cards are one of the most successful teams, right? We are going on the better part of a decade now with one solitary playoff series win. Here are the teams with as many or more series wins since our last real run at it:
Astros, Athletics (1), Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks (1) Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mariners (1), Marlins (1), Mets, Padres, Phillies, Rays, Red Sox, Rockies (1), Royals, Yankees
So that’s 2/3 of baseball that has been as successful or more so when it counts for 8 full seasons. So…I’m not sure that gaudy record means a hill of beans. Our October equals are the As, Dbacks, Mariners, Marlins and Rockies…some of the worst franchises in league history. Most of the rest of the league has been better.
I don’t mean to come off as an ingrate. I do enjoy that the Cards play meaningful games in September and October every single year. Some of us would simply like the team to at least pretend they have one of the most loyal and knowledgeable fan bases in the game without trying to fleece us with dubious stats like you just provided to justify them acting like a small market team nonstop. I’m hopeful that they are going to use the money they *haven’t* spent on the deferment of Waino and Arenado and the low salary to Contreras (that’s…what? $24M?) to upgrade the staff. We will see what happens.
Playing so many games vs weak NLC teams gives us the sense that we are better than we are. On the field and on the top step. Post season has been a wake up call lately but we just keep hitting the snooze.
It all gets down to the same basic question. How does one define success?
Is it reaching the playoffs and hoping to get hot once there? Or is it constructing a team more capable of going deep into October play? Of course, there are no promises either way, but the latter team has a better chance than the former to reach the top.
The Cardinals have been the former rather than the latter. It seems that will continue. The “increasing the payroll” talk feels more like the incremental cost of doing business rather than a Steve Cohen-type course change.
That’s where they are and where they have been and probably where they will remain.
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