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Re cluttered mess, just imagine what it would be like if the NL hadn’t brought in the DH to give us a place to dump players we don’t know what else to do with. (For the record I still hate the DH>)
LaCardFan, I agree, the FO was correct “to move on” from those asking prices.
Their decision was to spend the likely remaining cash this winter on Contreras, but that wasn’t their only option. They could have signed a 1.0 war catcher on a Dickerson contract and been mlb avg with Knizner.
For the fans who wanted the lineup beefed up, you had a good day. For those who wanted the pitching staff upgraded, you just saw the likely remaining offseason funds misappropriated.
They still have prospect capital to spend. We will see….
Last year, all I could think of is that we had 4 ninth place hitters. Molina, DeJong, Edman, Bader. Now we don’t. That is an improvement. Actually have a bat to bat behind Arenado.
The 2023 wRC+ Steamer forecasts:
Nootbaar 126
Yepez 122
Donovan 121
Burleson 118
O’Neill 118
Carlson 115
Gorman 110I respect your knowledge on the topic of prospects, Bob, but you at least have to acknowledge that there’s a real doubt that any one of those players is going to meet their projections. Noot has suddenly started hitting in the majors and comes with a low batting average. Yepez hasn’t really been given a chance. Donovan is a low grade prospect who seems to have over performed (Dejong 2.0?). Burleson hasn’t done anything in the bigs yet. O’Neill is a big injury risk. Carlson has yet to find a way to consistently impact the ball. Gorman and his K rate will always be one fluky (super low BABIP or a bump in Ks) year away from being unplayable.
Now, will all those players come in under their projections? No. However, there’s a very reasonable path for each one to not live up to Steamer’s lofty expectation. A reminder that the offense was shut out roughly 10% of the time and was highly dependent on Goldy and Arenado for stretches. It came back to bite them in the playoffs when they exited with a whimper.
Contreras is probably not going to be good in 2026 or 2027, I’ll concede. I’ll also say that he doesn’t *need* to be good then to justify the deal. This contract is about 2023 and 2024. The Cards are not a poor little market team that can’t afford to take a risk once in a while. 3.3 million plus don’t come through the gate to fund a middling payroll and moneyball games. The projections can say what they want (and in this case I believe they’re wrong) but Contreras is a significant upgrade over Herrera this coming year, the next year and possibly beyond. And if he turns into Fowler 2.0 then the FO’s job is to suck it up and find what we need then. The glut of position prospects should keep payroll low enough to supplement with a star or two elsewhere at that point.
Agree about the 4 weak bats in the line up. That was just a killer at times.
The Contreras move is absolutely an upgrade both defensively and offensively at catcher plus I think he wants to be in StL.
Now, if the Cardinals don’t continue to spend and add a really good left handed OF bat and a front line starter and signing Contreras is the excuse because that tapped them out then….. yeah, make do at catcher and sign a different guy.
For the fans who wanted the lineup beefed up, you had a good day. For those who wanted the pitching staff upgraded, you just saw the likely remaining offseason funds misappropriated.
OPS by month:
April .661
May .774
June .749
July .726
August .864
Sept/Oct .688OPS allowed by month:
April .654
May .728
June .700
July .711
August .654
Sept/Oct .715Record by month:
April 11-9
May 17-12
June 15-14
July 11-13
August 22-7
Sept/Oct 17-14Now, I’ll let you decode the true correlation, but it sure *seems* to me that the offensive inconsistency was the primary driver of the team’s success (or lack of) in 2022. The lineup really was not deep and it showed. It’s possible that the young guys are going to pick it up and back up Goldy and Arenado. It’s also possible that half the lineup regresses (Edman, Noot, and Donovan are prime candidates for backsliding, and Goldy and Arenado are likely to come down a bit from career years) and we look more like 2021 than 2022.
I’d also like to add a true ace, but the Cards probably will be fine with the staff they have. I feel that it’s stronger going into 2023 than it was coming into 2022, but that doesn’t mean they will be bulletproof. Bieber would be my favorite trade target but he’s no given to be available. If not, Mo will probably go hunting at the deadline and the track record has been pretty good the last two years.
Last year, all I could think of is that we had 4 ninth place hitters. Molina, DeJong, Edman, Bader. Now we don’t.
Going into last year, people thought Edman was the best hitter besides Arenado & Goldschmidt. Right now, he is arguably the worst hitter in the lineup.
Now, if the Cardinals don’t continue to spend and add a really good left handed OF bat
The Cardinals currently have two LH bats and one switch hitter in the outfield.
I think someone at Steamer has been consuming too many “Colorado gummies” if they think Herrera is going to put up 3.2 WAR in 2023. Where does that come from? In his albeit very limited time in St. Louis last year he looked completely overmatched. It is obvious that the front office doesn’t believe he is close to being ready. Perhaps by 2024 or 2025 he will be ready but the Cardinals are starting to act like a team in win now mode, which is what I thought most fans wanted.
but the Cardinals are starting to act like a team in win now mode, which is what I thought most fans wanted.
Yes, that is what most fans want, which is why I can’t understand the angst about signing Contreras.
The Cardinals, as it stands, are extremely deep position-wise. We should be extremely excited about the potential of this lineup.
What sticks in my mind about 2022 is the frequency of games that we allowed 6 runs or more. It felt like you could count on one game per series, that our pitching would get blown up.
I admit Monty and Q helped bring consistency to the staff, but now Q is gone. We will see.
Too bad some don’t take into consideration the ages of our young players.
Gorman – 22
Herrera – 22
Liberatore – 23
Carlson – 24
Yepez – 24
Burleson – 24
Pallante 24
Donovan – 25
Nootbaar – 25They haven’t begun to settle in as major leaguers. Give them a chance. Herrera is now a prime trade chip.
I have a hard time understanding any criticism of Johnny persuading Contreras to place his signature on a contract. Any Cardinal fan that’s been watching knows that Contreras can not only handle the bat, but can amp it up much in the same manner as Molina once did when runners are aboard in key situations. And I don’t care one bit about any WAR numbers that apply to defence. I’ve seen plenty of Contreras behind HP when he was a Cub and I never detected anything at all that indicated to me that he’s a sub-par defensive catcher. In fact, I always thought he performed real well behind HP. At any rate, I’ve even seen comparisons to the Fowler signing, which is over the top. It’s not at all like comparing a 4th grade school girl to a 28 year old centerfold model. It’s silly.
31 times (19.1% of games) we scored 0 or 1 run, and were 4-27 in those games. 42 times (25.9% of games) we allowed 6 runs or more, and were 6-36 in those contests. 13 of the 42 blowup games happened after the deadline, for a 28.2% pre deadline and a 22% rate post deadline. If we had maintained the same dud rate, we would have had 36 pitching duds on the season. Overall, being noncompetitive in roughly 45% of your games would be less than good.
As a point of comparison, the Braves had 20 duds (0 or 1 run) on the offensive end and 41 duds (6+ runs allowed) on the pitching. The Mets had 23 offensive duds and 34 pitching duds. The Dodgers had 20 offensive duds and 22 pitching duds. Houston had 23 offensive duds and 32 pitching duds. The Yankees were at 27 hitting duds and 29 pitching duds.
Point being, if the post deadline staff is the staff quality going forward, then the dud rate is not too out of line with the elite teams in the league (except the Dodgers, who are are a different breed). If the offense is what it was all year…then the dud rate was worst in that grouping by a fair amount.
Neither side of duds are ideal and generally result in a loss. Thus, they should be avoided. If you eliminate a few duds on each end and maybe win a pitchers duel or shootout here or there…it makes a nice difference.
Personally I didn’t think what the A’s were asking for was that high. Nootbaar is an average player, I like Donovan but he’s not that great, and the other guy I hadn’t heard of so overall not that much. However looking at Murphy’s offensive stats, maybe best just to get Contreras especially if you aren’t going to add anything worthwhile offensively.
Nootbaar and Donovan were never considered elite prospects, Willie, that’s for sure. (But then, neither were Molina, Edman, Goldschmidt, or Matt Carpenter. None were ever even in a top 100, or even close.)
But so far, averaging the B-Ref and Fangraphs values, Noot has been worth 4.0 WAR per 600 PA’s for his Cardinal career. And Donovan has been even better, at 4.3 per 600. Outstanding numbers, obviously.
While it’s true they aren’t proven commodities, they both have excellent underlying plate discipline (like Matt Carpenter did), they both hit very well in their limited AAA time (140 OPS+ for Noot and 132 for Donovan), and they both project to keep on hitting.
Averaging the Marcel and Steamer forecasts for 2023, Noot comes in at a 123 OPS+ and Brendan at 123 also. When a kinda/sorta late bloomer keeps producing, it’s usually because of strong plate discipline. And both of these guys fit the bill.
I thought it was interesting that it seemed the Cards might have been open to trading Donovan and if they did so, possibly signing a SS like Swanson. If that was how that chain of events would have played out, it would seem that trading Donovan is now off the table as they likely wouldn’t have the cash to sign a MI like Swanson to replace him with a big chunk of that money going to Contreras.
If they do trade from the MLB depth, it would seem likely to be among the outfield/dh candidates. Trading from that depth to add a SP, shouldn’t require a second move to add another OF to the organization. For what it’s worth, I don’t get the talk about adding a veteran lefthanded bat with pop. Conforto and Gallo I guess could fit that description, but I’m skeptical that would be the move, even if both are looking for a 1-2 year deal.
Of course, I want the satisfaction of the roster being seemingly set as soon as possible, but I wonder if this all could even drag out to toward the end of spring training?
There will be plenty of extra playing time for the low/no service time guys (Burleson, Walker, Winn, Gorman, Herrera) due to the WBC. This in a way buys the front office time to confirm their evaluations of their own guys and see if anyone made any major developmental gains during the offseason.
Impact trades can still happen in spring training and I don’t think it’s malpractice to send a few guys back to AAA, even if it is unsatisfying. (I’m open to Walker making the opening day roster, but make him force his way onto it. I’m also okay with keeping Herrera and Winn in AAA all year ala Burleson this year, though I don’t think they will force the issue as much as he did).
Part of the reason why Nootbaar and Donovan have so much trade value right now is because they got a chance to show they can hit really well in the majors. You might remember that Nootbaar had been floated by some in the media as a buy-low (or buy-early) trade candidate last offseason because he was blocked by O’Neill and Carlson in the corners. Likewise, many were clamoring for Donovan to make the opening day roster after an impressive spring training. I think we’re all glad they didn’t trade away Nootbaar last offseason and despite starting the year at AAA Donovan still ended up with nearly a full season of plate appearances in the majors.
I agree that long-term there is a log jam at OF/DH, and it has to be resolved somehow (by injury or by trade) but Gorman and Burleson could do just as much in a year to boost their values like Nootbaar and Donovan did. If O’Neill has a strong spring, does that increase his value enough that it doesn’t feel like selling low on him? Does it make sense to see how Carlson’s wrist is holding up in a few games before deciding on the preferred alignment?
Who in their right mind considers Edman to be a poor hitter?????
It makes me wonder if some of you posters know anything at all about baseball……
r/Esteemed Rat
“Who in their right mind considers Edman to be a poor hitter?????
It makes me wonder if some of you posters know anything at all about baseball……”
I didn’t say he was a poor hitter. But he is more of a hitter for the bottom of your lineup as he does not draw walks or get on base other than hitting the ball so really other than batting him eighth or ninth what do you do with him?
Well, Rat – Out of the projected starting nine, how many players do you think he is going to hit better than?
Is he going to hit better than Nootbaar?
Is he going to hit better than Donovan?
Is he going to hit better then Goldschmidt?
Is he going to hit better than Arenado?
Is he going to hit better than Contreras?
Is he going to hit better than Yepez?
Is he going to hit better than O’Neill?If you look at the starting lineup, I expect seven of them to out-hit Edman. The only question mark really is Carlson.
I expect Edman to out-hit average wise the following:
Nootbaar
Donovan
Contreras
Yepez
O’Neill
Gorman
Perhaps ArenadoYes, you like to go back to your rudimentary analysis where a single > walk, and a single = double = triple = home run.
Most of us believe home runs are better than singles, and you have to look at the entire value of what the person does at the plate.
I expect Nootbaar, Carlson, Donovan, Contreras, Yepez, Arenado and Goldschmidt to get on base at a higher rate than Edman. I also expect Donovan, Arenado and Goldschmidt to definitely outhit Edman. I would not be surprised to see O’Neill, Nootbaar and Contreras to hit about the same as Edman.
When you tally up all areas of offensive production, I expect Tommy Edman to out-perform everyone on the ’23 roster with the exception of Goldschmidt, Arenado and O’Neill, but obviously only if O’Neill can manage to stay in the line-up. When you tally up everything that contributes to runs scored, (runs are still pretty important in baseball) Edman out-performed everyone on the ’22 Cardinal roster with the exception of Goldschmidt, Arenado and The Great Albert Pujols.
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