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For whatever it’s worth, Jim Callis from MLB.com rates the StL draft #1.
“1. Cardinals
The Cardinals spent two of their top three selections on a pair of high schoolers: outfielder Trevor Condon (first round), who offered the best combination of hitting ability and speed in the prep class and might be the next Pete Crow-Armstrong; and shortstop Rocco Maniscalco (second), one of the youngest players and best defenders available. Tennessee right-hander Tegan Kuhns’ (supplemental first) stuff and strikes made him one of the best college mound prospects, while West Virginia righty Dawson Montesa (supplemental second) is an interesting upside play and UCLA righty Cal Randall (fifth) is a fast-track reliever with one of the best fastballs in the Draft. Central Florida outfielder Andrew Williamson (supplemental second), Texas Tech outfielder Caden Ferraro (third) and Kansas State shortstop Dee Kennedy (fourth) are all proven college performers.”And that’s the same Jim Callis who has routinely downgraded, dismissed, and disparaged Cardinal farmhands for 20+ years, going back to his days at Baseball America. So if THIS guy adores their draft, that carries a little more weight.
But please, I wish everyone would stop talking about Condon & Crow-Armstrong. Yeesh, I’m just about sick to death of that PCA guy — and moreover, it’s unfair to hang that expectation on anyone, much less an 18-year-old kid.
How about we aim just a little lower? I think the young man’s profile (speed, excellent CF defense, good batting average, and 15 homers a year) is much more like former Redbird Andy Van Slyke. And if Andy Van Slyke is his 80th-90th percentile outcome, that’s damn fine by me.
Won-Bin Killebrew! Hope the young man can at least be an above average batter for the rest of his AA season.
As for Rainiel Rodriguez, he of course initially struggled at Springfield, but he’s really whacking the horsehide now. His first Springfield game was May 12th, and here’s the splits:
May 12 to June 2… .180/.268/.246 with a lousy 6/23 BB/K ratio across 71 plate appearances.
June 3 to present… .342/.451/.592 with an excellent 13/17 BB/K tally in 91 trips to the plate.
His last two homers? Line drives to the opposite field power alley. Things of beauty.
“I officially hate Ryne Stanek. There simply is no reason for him wasting a roster spot when he is freaking terrible.”
There are 3.5 million reasons. Don’t blame Stanek for being incompetent; he’s doing the best he can.
Blame the incompetent GM who signed him to a $3.5MM contract that by default kinda sorta forces the incompetent manager to send him out there again and again. Reminder: Stanek was bad in 2025. Stanek was also bad in 2024. There was no reason to sign him to a guaranteed contract of any size.
The thing about Ollie, is that he continues using Stanek in relatively high leverage situations. There’s ZERO justification for THAT, regardless of the man’s salary. (Last I checked, Stanek had one of the worst 4 or 5 tallies of all MLB relievers, in terms of Win Probability Added. Because Marmol places far, far too much faith in him. After tonight’s debacle, Stanek may very well have the single worst WPA in the majors. And Marmol is his accomplice in that.)
Brief Jack Gurevitch update.
He’s now played 10 pro games NOT at Roger Dean Stadium, and in those 48 plate appearances he’s hitting .400/.500/.750 with 8 walks and 10 strikeouts.“Has anyone watched enough of Memphis to talk about how Blaze Jordan is doing fielding 3B?”
I can’t vouch for his range, Gags, but over his 57 hot corner starts in 2025/26, he’s only committed ONE error. So there’s that.
Braden Davis with 8 K’s and zero walks yesterday. Moreover, 7 of 8 whiffs were swinging.
I feel like Davis may be significantly underrated among Redbird pitching prospects. Last year there were 691 minor league pitchers who threw 70+ innings, and Davis was 99th percentile in swinging strikes %, 99th in percentage of flyballs that were infield popups, 91st percentile in line drive suppression, and 67th percentile in groundball ratio.
Swinging strikes, popups, and groundouts. Nice combo, huh? Probably why Braden only permitted 35 hits in his final 85 innings last year. But also walks, too many of them. So if he can keep the ball just barely inside instead of just barely outside of the zone, he’s a dandy starting prospect. (Per the Gameday graphics, in his first AA start this year he had 11 or 12 edge-of-the-strikezone strikes that were actually called balls by the ump. And before you ask, no balls were called strikes. And no, there’s no ABS reviews in the Texas League.)
So “Philly Nation” is souring on Dave Dombrowski, I guess. Well, that’s understandable; the team is under .500 and it’s nearly the 20th of April!
With apologies for turning the thread away from the paltry Cardinal payroll, let’s look at Dombrowski and Philadelphia a bit. Immediately prior to Dombrowski’s arrival in Philly, the Fightins missed the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons. Didn’t even have a winning record in any of those nine campaigns either.
Since DD arrived in late 2020, they’ve had only winning records, they’ve made the playoffs each of the past four seasons, and they won the N.L. pennant in 2022. (Hard to win Senior Circuit pennants with Dave Roberts’ Dodgers around.)
Going back to his Boston and Detroit tenures, Dombrowski’s clubs have made the playoffs 11 of the past 14 seasons. If you hire Dombrowski, he wins. Payroll goes up, and he wins and he wins. He’s the anti-Chaim.
As for the residents of Philadelphia: the only thing worse than a fool, is a phool.
“Bob, I’m unsure where you are getting your numbers from but they don’t match what ZIPs would do. For McGonigle, the Tigers still got a bargain on him as he was projected for 5 WAR seasons which at 8 years with 2 pre arb and 3 arb ZIPs projected him to be worth $190 mil. Still ahead for $40 million for the Tigers.”
Thanks for the response. Let’s examine these numbers.
I said the Tiger ownership only comes out ahead if McGonigle is a Hall Of Famer.
If McGonigle averages 5 WAR per year for his first 8 years, that’s EXACTLY what a Hall Of Famer looks like. So I don’t see how the ZiPS numbers contradict my opinion re McGonigle.Or put it this way: I would cheerfully give anyone here 3-1 odds on McGonigle putting up 40 WAR over the next 8 years. Because I’d say his chances are between 10 and 15 percent. To tally 40 WAR in his first 8 years, a player must be really great and really healthy, over and over. McGonigle might do it, but it ain’t half likely. (I’d put Griffin’s chances a bit better, maybe 20-22%.)
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“Add in the fan perception, merchandise, media, etc. The Tigers maybe could hold onto McGonigle after he becomes a free agent, but who knows at what price that would be?”
“Now, suppose one or the other wins a division title and makes the playoffs in a year that they otherwise wouldn’t have in those free agent years. How about they win a pennant? A World Series? There are so many factors that could skew things toward the team.”
As for the first part, if McGonigle is good and the team is good for his first six seasons, the fan perception and merchandise will follow. And if McGonigle walks after six years in Detroit, the team will not face substantive backlash from their fans as long as they publicly let it be known that they offered their young star a highly respectable offer — not unlike the Cardinals did with Pujols after the 2011 season.
As for the second part, if the Tigers win something important with McGonigle, after his first six years expired, it will be because of a lot of reasons. Individual players invariably get too much credit & blame in baseball. There’s no QB, no point guard. Compared to an average (i.e., 2 WAR) MLB player, K.M. would shift the win total by just a few more games per year.
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“I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $80MM for 8 years for Wetherholt is the absolute tops the contract should be. It should also give him more in the early years than he would get in the normal, year-to-year contract process. Less in the later years.”
Took the words right outtta my mouth, Forschy. Guaranteed dough of either $40MM for 6 years, $60MM for 7, or $80MM for 8. And then in each case, club option(s) through his 9th or 10th season. Options at somewhere between $25MM and 30MM per annum.
Tink topped out at 91 MPH on his 4-seam fastball. I don’t see any way that could happen unless he’s significantly compromised physically. So sad for the guy.
“It is interesting to me fans here don’t want a player extended…the money amount wouldn’t cripple the team by any means…”
I am violently opposed to a Griffin/McGonigle type of contract being offered to Wetherholt. But that does NOT mean that I’m against JJ receiving a lengthy contract extension, not at all.
As detailed in a previous comment in this thread, if Wetherholt’s first six years are a pristine parade of 4-WAR star-quality seasons and flawless health, he’ll make roughly $55MM in total. So offer him approximately 75% of that right now ($40MM), but with two or three club options at the end. Options at, say 20-22 million bucks apiece.
We all know how badly a Griffin/McGonigle contract *could* backfire. Look at what happened in the first three or four seasons of Dylan Carlson or Nolan Gorman or, yes, Jordan Walker. (I’m extremely curious to see what Jordan Walker gets in arbitration next year, if he hits .280 with 35-40 homers this season. I don’t think it’ll be much, since 2024/25 were so dismal.)
Anyway, the only position player since Pujols who would’ve worked out to the club’s advantage by signing a large early contract, would be Matt Carpenter. That’s it, he’s the only one. Donovan woulda been okay, too, but just okay (depending on the dollars involved, obviously).
Modest, Brewer-style early deals are usually okay, even shrewd. But at $100M+, they’re foolhardy at best. Basically, the only way the Pirates & Tigers come out ahead on the Griffin/McGonigle deals is if those players become Hall Of Famers.
Part of me is glad that talks with Wetherholt haven’t progressed. Actually, all of me is glad.
Most of the lengthy contracts being signed now by inexperienced major leaguers are somewhere between irresponsible and quite destructive. Except for Milwaukee’s deal with Cooper Pratt. Leave it to the Brewer front office to be smarter than everyone else. (The McGonigle deal is moronic; the club is assuming 95-99% of the risk. Only way the team saves money here is if McGonigle becomes a perennial All-Star who plays 155 games a year for the next decade.)
At, say, 50 or 60 million bucks, the Cardinals can afford to get it wrong, kinda. But not at $100MM, $120MM, or more. And that’s likely what Wetherholt’s agent is asking for, given the current panicky climate among some ownership groups.
Thanks, guys, for the responses re Fajardo. Doesn’t explain/justify the modest pitch count, but so early in the season I guess it’s a quibble, not a legit complaint. On the other hand, if it becomes a pattern of usage, then I’ll howl about it. 😉
Worth mentioning probably that Yhoiker Fajardo pitched 3 innings (54 pitches) out of the Peoria bullpen for some reason on Sunday. Too hittable with 6 safeties allowed, but just one earned run and 6 K’s to zero walks.
Don’t know why he didn’t start. Or throw 70+ pitches, as he did in his debut outing 5 days earlier. The latter matter could be a physical thing, but the former is just weird to me.
Ivan Herrera is only 25 years old, so very likely to just be entering his prime as a hitter. And he’s already very, very good.
Sometimes when a team is mediocre for several years in a row, as the Cardinals have obviously been, their best players get undervalued even by their own fan base. Here’s how well Herrera has hit over the past three seasons, compared to some well-known others.
OPS+ from 2023-2025
Mookie Betts 136
Kyle Schwarber 135
Cal Raleigh 133
Ivan Herrera 133
Rafael Devers 132
Jose Ramirez 132
Francisco Lindor 129
Pete Alonso 128Overall, Herrera ranks 19th in all of MLB over the 3-year span (min. 750 PA’s). For me, he’s a guy you offer a reasonable contract extension to, rather than someone you deal away — even if he’s only a DH and nothing but a DH. Because his major and minor league track records strongly imply that he’s gonna keep right on hitting like this for at least another half decade.
With his nagging leg injuries and sometimes ridiculous #2 lineup slot (he’s posted a sub-.800 OPS batting second in his career, and .900 hitting 5th/6th) Ivan The Terrific hasn’t gotten the RBI opportunities that his talent warrants. But he’s an outstanding hitter who just needs the chance to show it better. I really hope they keep him around.
“Heck, if we could get a pretty good outfielder who would be around for 4 or 5 years for Rainiel, the odds are good we would come out ahead.”
If by “pretty good outfielder,” you mean a 2-3 WAR guy, then no, I wouldn’t make that deal. Spending substantial money or prospect capital on a 2-3 WAR outfielder is exactly what the Birds did when they went after Fowler and Ozuna — the double debacle that veered the club toward the general mediocrity since 2015.
If on the other hand it’s a 3-4 WAR outfielder, then I almost certainly would do the deal. (But only if I was 99% sure that Rai-Rod couldn’t be successfully converted to the hot corner.)
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On an unrelated note, Chase Heath homered today. This means that over his most recent 14 games for Palm Beach, stretching back to last year, he’s hitting .370/.482/.696 with 5 homers in 46 AB’s and a stellar 9/8 BB/K ratio.
“Gurevitch started off slow but he has been playing much better lately.”
Definitely been playing better. It’s probably worth mentioning that one big reason might be the ballpark.
Gurevitch has played 30 pro ballgames, and 23 of them have been at the notorious Roger Dean Stadium. At Roger Dean, he’s been a disaster — and fanned 36 times against just 13 walks, to boot.
But in the seven games NOT at the hitter’s graveyard of R.D.S., Jack is batting .440/.563/.680 with 7 walks and 5 strikeouts. I don’t like drafting first basemen earlier than the 6th or 7th round of the draft, because they have to pretty much kill the ball to be above average regulars. (I’m still ticked off about the Cards drafting the 1st sacker from Tulane in the 2nd round when Pedroia and Pence were both available. Yeah, I know how to hold a grudge.) But I will say that Gurevitch might be much better than his Palm Beach numbers imply on the surface.
Thanks for all of the interesting responses, guys.
“P.S. Other teams might prefer Rainiel Rodriguez, who is now a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball.”
Calling Rodriguez a consensus top 100 prospect is like calling Meryl Streep a good actress. Factually true, but one heckuvan understatement.
Here’s his ranks, worst to best:
Baseball America 35th
MLB Pipeline 34th
Keith Law 29th
ZiPS computer model 26th
Fangraphs 25th
ESPN 19th
Baseball Prospectus 16th
OOPSY projection system 3rdLooks like consensus top 30. And the mean of the above rankings is 24th. Not too shabby.
Anyway, since there’s been so much speculation on this thread about the future of the catcher position in St. Louis, here’s my platonic ideal moving forward — assuming all of these guys keep performing well, and stay generally healthy. (That’ll never happen, of course. This is just the dream version.)
Herrera becomes full-time designated hitter (and emergency backup backstop) and signs an extension through age 31 or 32. Crooks and Bernal become a catching tandem long term, dividing plate appearances fairly equally. Rai-Rod switches to the hot corner, assuming he has average aptitude there. And the strapping Juan Rujano moves to the outfield — LF if he runs okay, RF if he doesn’t.
“Isn’t there a DSL catching prospect that put up very good numbers?”
You’re thinking of Juan Rujano, 27, who just turned 18 in December. Big backstop (6′ 3″ and 190) who posted a solid 120 OPS+ or so in the DSL last year. Bad news, he fanned 23% of the time, which is awfully high for that level of competition.
Good news, he seemed to be much, much better by the end of their brief season.
Started 3-29 with just 3 walks and 9 whiffs. Thereafter, he mashed .333/.466/.516 with an acceptable 16/25 BB/K. Strong arm and big exit velocities for a teenager.You certainly may get your wish, Albert.
Crooks & Bernal are definitely producing right now in Triple-A, and I for one do not consider them blocked at all by Pages or Pozo. (Herrera is a whole other matter. I wanted the Panamanian behind the plate so badly, for some time. But with Ivan’s three leg injuries in the past 12 months, caution suggests that idea should be completely abandoned, to keep the 25-year-old in the lineup every day.)
As for our minor leaguers, the projection systems admire Jimmy and Leo quite a lot. Specifically, the ZiPS forecast has Bernal as the #6 catching prospect in the sport, and Crooks at #9. (ZiPS has seven catchers among their top 40 overall prospects, by the way.) Clay Davenport’s computer modeling has an almost identical ranking, with Bernal the #5 backstop and Crooks #9. Excellent, right? Your potential MLB catching tandem from 2027-2031 or longer, right?
Well, the thing of it is, there’s this teenager named Rainiel Rodriguez. ZiPS lists Rai-Rod as the #3 catching prospect, behind only Carter Jensen and Alfredo Duno. Clay Davenport likes him even more. Davenport rates Rodriguez as the #1, with Duno second and Jensen actually one slot below our own Leonardo Bernal. And if you don’t go in for computer modeling, the guys at MLB Pipeline put Rainiel Rodriguez at #2 among all catchers.
If they all show average, boring, typical progress (and decent health), it should be an embarrassment of backstop riches for the organization over the next decade or so. I’m not talking Yogi Berra & Elston Howard, mind you. Just some good-to-very good options at catcher, year after year.
“Should Cards do the same with either JJ or Walker? Thoughts?”
Do the same with JJ Walker? Dy-no-mite! Really, though, not if the contract pays 80-90 cents on the stardom dollar.
These types of massive deals are only mutually beneficial when each side assumes a reasonable amount of risk. The recent signings I’ve seen were nearly all stupid from the club standpoint. The team in each case (other than the Cooper Pratt deal) was taking on darn near all of the risk.
Why do I care how much the uberwealthy Cardinal owners shell out? Because they work within a budget (a morbidly greedy budget at this point) and if they overpay for someone, it obviously limits their ability to invest elsewhere. Foolishly throw away 12 million bucks on Dustin May, and that’s money that can’t be used to improve the team in some other way. Thanks, Chaim!
“Crooks with another HR and 3 RBI hitting .375, Blaze Jordan with 2 more hits up to .467, Bryan Torres hitting .400 so far, Prieto also off to a good start at .452. Also, Bernal hitting .310.
Good start from Dobbins 5 1/3, 1 earned, 5 hits and 7 K’s.”
Thanks for the updates, Ghost. (Dobbins’ “earned” run only came about as an eventual byproduct of a strikeout/wild pitch. If not for the wild pitch, a run never scores against him — so it’s certainly not earned, in spirit.)
Yhoiker Fajardo with a nice debut for Peoria. Across 4.2 innings and 71 pitches, he permitted 5 hits, 1 run, no walks, and fanned 4. No homers, of course. Hasn’t allowed a homer to the last 330 batters, something like that. Our pitching prospect with the best chance to eventually be a #1/2 starter, in my estimation. Him or Jurry.
“Ollie has Romero and O’Brien plus an ok Graceffo. Everyone else has been bad….Dump Bruihl for Naughton possibly.”
You said a mouthful, there, JNevel.
Justin Bruihl as an MLB reliever: 4.87 ERA in 97 games
Packy Naughton as MLB reliever: 2.55 ERA across 35 innings
Packy Naughton as MLB starter: 8.51 ERA in 8 startsKyle Leahy as an MLB reliever last year: 3.18 ERA over 85 innings
Step one, swap Bruihl for Naughton. Step two, return Leahy to the bullpen where he flourished last year, and call up one of the boringly mediocre #4/5 starter Red Sox acquisitions to take his place in the rotation. Send Svanson down and release Stanek, since he should’ve never been acquired in the first place (last good season, 2022).
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This is all pretty straightforward, and it takes a comedy combo like Marmol & Bloom to foul it up as profoundly as they have. Not that Svanson specifically was a foul-up, of course. He obviously was excellent last year and thus earned his spot in the pen, to start the season.
“I’m not in favor of Cijntje continuing to throw both right- and left-handed. Maybe at the lower levels it might be okay to try it, but not when you get close to the big leagues.”
Agreed, 27, absolutely.
Professionally, JC has been atrocious throwing southpaw style, walking 20 of 63 batters and whiffing only nine. All told, the OPS is over 1.100 against him as a lefty, so (small sample size or not) there’s zero indication that switch-pitching is a valid option going forward. In short, he’s a “switch-pitcher” like Larry Walker was a “switch-hitter.”Which brings me to the good part: Jurrangelo was excellent against lefty batters the other night when throwing right-handed. They were just 1-for-11 (groundball single), no walks, three strikeouts swinging, and only one flyball out. Strikeouts, grounders, no walks: sounds good to me!
Hopefully this micro-sample reflects real improvement, as JC when throwing righty last season permitted lefty bats to slug an unacceptable .473 in 156 PA’s. If the young man can stay healthy and just be mediocre versus lefty hitters, he’ll be at least a #3 starter, since in righty/righty matchups he’s allowed a meager sub-.500 OPS as a pro.
“Walker gave his team a chance in this one but a middle RP’er was nowhere to be found.”
I know where he is, a real good one. In the rotation, pitching tomorrow.
Per Fangraphs, Paul DeJong generated a bit over $50MM in value for the Birds from 2018-2023, and was paid $22.5MM by the DeWitts. So as profoundly disappointing as his career turned out, it’s still not a hand-wringing type of contract that the Cardinals signed him to.
Anyway, as everyone here probably knows, Paulie never had anything remotely resembling the strikezone command that Wetherholt has exhibited. DeJong in AA had a poor 44/156 BB/K ratio. In AAA, it was barely better, at 36/117. (As a cautionary tale, DeJong would be a pretty good fit for Gorman or Walker, however.)
Wetherholt’s plate discipline meanwhile has been strong all along. An 82/82 BB/K in college, and 88/88 in the minors. Nice consistency, huh?
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Personally, I’d prefer to see someone like Winn or Herrera get a lengthy contract before JJ. Masyn & Ivan are just 24 and 25, respectively, and have in my opinion already established themselves as above average big leaguers. I think that JJ is going to be real good. Those guys ARE real good.
