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Teen phenom Yhoiker Fajardo also promoted to AA and scheduled to start on Wednesday, after a mixed tenure for Peoria. (Mixed, yes, but nevertheless strong enough for Keith Law of The Athletic to rank him baseball’s overall #14 pitching prospect in his recent update.)
His ERA for the Chiefs was very solid, but not great, at 4.01. I know that doesn’t sound so good, but the Midwest League ERA this year is a bloated 5.33 and Fajardo’s teammates are even worse at 5.79. Weirdly, the kid coughed up 11 homers in 76 innings, after permitting just 2 in 123 IP across 2024/25. And moreover, he allowed a fairly amazing .359 BABIP.
So why the promotion, and why the tremendous ranking from Law? Well, there are 519 minor league arms with 60+ innings this year, and Yhoiker ranks 6th in Swinging Strike Percentage at 17.7%. The top three in SwStr%? Superduper arms Seth Hernandez, Kade Anderson, and Anthony Eyanson. And right behind Fajardo at #7? Gage Wood, the 5th-best pitching prospect in all the minors, per Fangraphs.
Not surprisingly, with so much swing n’ miss, Yhoiker has registered a slew of strikeouts. Out of those 519 pitchers, he rates 26th in K/9 at 12.50, and 27th in K% with 32.1%. In other words, 95th percentile in both.
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But it goes deeper than that. Fajardo has also done a good job of limiting free passes. His K-BB% is 12th overall, at just over 24%. So, 98th percentile at the thing that’s most important, except perhaps for ERA.
All of that said, I don’t really see the need to push a 19-year-old pitcher to Double-A, especially when he’s not exactly dominating High-A in the actual prevention of runs. But hey, the Cardinal development people know the young man, and wouldn’t promote him on a whim.
re Sandro Santana, the 21-year-old reliever in the Nootbaar trade. A total of 892 minor league pitchers have thrown 100+ innings since the start of the 2025 season. Among those 892 twirlers, Santana ranks 14th with a 2.47 ERA. (With relievers I like looking at multiple years of data, sample sizes are so modest.)
Over those nearly two full seasons, left-handed batters in particular have struggled versus the undersized southpaw, with just 23 total bases in 128 at-bats. That’s a slugging percentage of .180. Even more impressively, this year, across High-A and Double-A, lefty bats have zero XBH against Sandro.
All in all, Santana is my 2nd-favorite acquisition today, after Frias. I would’ve never said that kind of thing about a relief pitcher 20 years ago, or maybe even 10. But bullpen guys are eating more innings every year, and it’s still trending in that unfortunate direction. I mean, less than a month ago a perfectly healthy Matt Liberatore was pulled after 6 shutout innings and a paltry 71 pitches. I’d wager you could count on one hand the number of times that happened in major league baseball history, prior to this season. And as insane as that was, Ollie Marmol is not that much crazier than the typical MLB manager, when it comes to aggressively pulling his starter.
May/Romero trade, A-
Noot, C+The chief concern with the Brewers trade — as others have noted — is that in general Milwaukee is much, much, much, much, much smarter right now than the Cardinals. In fact, they’ve been the smarter organization for a decade or so, at evaluating both their own talent and that of other organizations. So if the Redbird return on the trade seems too good to be true, then it probably is.
Rainiel Rodriguez update from AA.
Over his first three weeks in Springfield (May 12 to June 2) the 19-year-old struggled badly, going 11-for-61 with a lousy 6/23 BB/K ratio and a meager .514 OPS. Well, things are different now.
Since then he’s accrued 184 plate appearances and is slashing .323/.413/.576 with a solid 21/36 BB/K tally. That is a very long and healthy hot streak; or maybe it’s his entirely sustainable new true level of hitting ability, as a teenager in Double-A, in which case Rai-Rod should be considered a consensus top 5 prospect in all of baseball.
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And speaking of Redbird catching prospects, from May 7 through Friday night’s game, 22-year-old Leonardo Bernal is smashing AAA pitchers to the tune of .302/.376/.561 (234 PA’s). When your 2nd-best backstop prospect looks like a future 3-4 WAR starter, that’s a real good sign. 😉
“Rather move Herrera unless he gives up catching. I know they like the hitting upside but he hasn’t hit much recently and has an injury history.”
Yeah, Ivan hasn’t hit much recently, that’s a fact. After hitting quite well in 2024, even better in 2025, and very well through late June, Herrera stopped hitting. And I think there’s a pretty simple reason for this: Ivan Herrera started the first 101 games in a row this year. Small wonder that he finally wore out in July.
On June 24, his OPS was .824, and his BB/K on the season was an outstanding 48/55. Since then he’s walked just 3 times and fanned 29. That’s a guy who is tired and pressing badly — if not hiding an injury.
And speaking of injury, what kind of player should NOT play every single game, week after week, month after month? I would say it’s a part-time catcher who went on the disabled list multiple times in the previous season with leg injuries.
Look, Marmol deserves a great deal of credit for the McGreevy/Pallante usage of Herrera behind the dish. Ivan never catches two days in a row — which is quite wise — and both twirlers have been terrific with Herrera catching them in 2026.
Pallante with Herrera 3.33 ERA
Pallante with others 7.11 ERAMcGreevy with Herrera 3.12 ERA
McGreevy with others 5.06 ERAWonderful, fantastic, do not change this part! Let Ivan Herrera be the personal backstop for both of those guys. But how about a couple days off each month?
(And DH’ing is NOT a day off. When you DH, you still have to hit a round object moving 95 MPH, which requires the most concentration & coordination of any professional athletic activity known to man. And you still have to run the bases, which takes, well, a bit of effort anyway.)
Just to fully articulate the recent excellence of Quinn Mathews, here are the numbers over his last 9 starts for Memphis:
49.1 IP
22 hits
11 runs, 10 earned
5 homers
57/19 K/BB tally
1.82 ERAI’d bring up Quinn (and Dobbins) for MLB long relief. Long relief only, 3-5 innings, keep them stretched out. No real reason not too, that I can see. Mathews has certainly earned it now, and Dobbins has already performed very well this season in that role — small sample caveats, of course.
Thanks for the acquisitions overview, Jnevel. Pretty bad pitching, yikes.
For whatever it’s worth, Jim Callis from MLB.com rates the StL draft #1.
“1. Cardinals
The Cardinals spent two of their top three selections on a pair of high schoolers: outfielder Trevor Condon (first round), who offered the best combination of hitting ability and speed in the prep class and might be the next Pete Crow-Armstrong; and shortstop Rocco Maniscalco (second), one of the youngest players and best defenders available. Tennessee right-hander Tegan Kuhns’ (supplemental first) stuff and strikes made him one of the best college mound prospects, while West Virginia righty Dawson Montesa (supplemental second) is an interesting upside play and UCLA righty Cal Randall (fifth) is a fast-track reliever with one of the best fastballs in the Draft. Central Florida outfielder Andrew Williamson (supplemental second), Texas Tech outfielder Caden Ferraro (third) and Kansas State shortstop Dee Kennedy (fourth) are all proven college performers.”And that’s the same Jim Callis who has routinely downgraded, dismissed, and disparaged Cardinal farmhands for 20+ years, going back to his days at Baseball America. So if THIS guy adores their draft, that carries a little more weight.
But please, I wish everyone would stop talking about Condon & Crow-Armstrong. Yeesh, I’m just about sick to death of that PCA guy — and moreover, it’s unfair to hang that expectation on anyone, much less an 18-year-old kid.
How about we aim just a little lower? I think the young man’s profile (speed, excellent CF defense, good batting average, and 15 homers a year) is much more like former Redbird Andy Van Slyke. And if Andy Van Slyke is his 80th-90th percentile outcome, that’s damn fine by me.
Won-Bin Killebrew! Hope the young man can at least be an above average batter for the rest of his AA season.
As for Rainiel Rodriguez, he of course initially struggled at Springfield, but he’s really whacking the horsehide now. His first Springfield game was May 12th, and here’s the splits:
May 12 to June 2… .180/.268/.246 with a lousy 6/23 BB/K ratio across 71 plate appearances.
June 3 to present… .342/.451/.592 with an excellent 13/17 BB/K tally in 91 trips to the plate.
His last two homers? Line drives to the opposite field power alley. Things of beauty.
“I officially hate Ryne Stanek. There simply is no reason for him wasting a roster spot when he is freaking terrible.”
There are 3.5 million reasons. Don’t blame Stanek for being incompetent; he’s doing the best he can.
Blame the incompetent GM who signed him to a $3.5MM contract that by default kinda sorta forces the incompetent manager to send him out there again and again. Reminder: Stanek was bad in 2025. Stanek was also bad in 2024. There was no reason to sign him to a guaranteed contract of any size.
The thing about Ollie, is that he continues using Stanek in relatively high leverage situations. There’s ZERO justification for THAT, regardless of the man’s salary. (Last I checked, Stanek had one of the worst 4 or 5 tallies of all MLB relievers, in terms of Win Probability Added. Because Marmol places far, far too much faith in him. After tonight’s debacle, Stanek may very well have the single worst WPA in the majors. And Marmol is his accomplice in that.)
Brief Jack Gurevitch update.
He’s now played 10 pro games NOT at Roger Dean Stadium, and in those 48 plate appearances he’s hitting .400/.500/.750 with 8 walks and 10 strikeouts.“Has anyone watched enough of Memphis to talk about how Blaze Jordan is doing fielding 3B?”
I can’t vouch for his range, Gags, but over his 57 hot corner starts in 2025/26, he’s only committed ONE error. So there’s that.
Braden Davis with 8 K’s and zero walks yesterday. Moreover, 7 of 8 whiffs were swinging.
I feel like Davis may be significantly underrated among Redbird pitching prospects. Last year there were 691 minor league pitchers who threw 70+ innings, and Davis was 99th percentile in swinging strikes %, 99th in percentage of flyballs that were infield popups, 91st percentile in line drive suppression, and 67th percentile in groundball ratio.
Swinging strikes, popups, and groundouts. Nice combo, huh? Probably why Braden only permitted 35 hits in his final 85 innings last year. But also walks, too many of them. So if he can keep the ball just barely inside instead of just barely outside of the zone, he’s a dandy starting prospect. (Per the Gameday graphics, in his first AA start this year he had 11 or 12 edge-of-the-strikezone strikes that were actually called balls by the ump. And before you ask, no balls were called strikes. And no, there’s no ABS reviews in the Texas League.)
So “Philly Nation” is souring on Dave Dombrowski, I guess. Well, that’s understandable; the team is under .500 and it’s nearly the 20th of April!
With apologies for turning the thread away from the paltry Cardinal payroll, let’s look at Dombrowski and Philadelphia a bit. Immediately prior to Dombrowski’s arrival in Philly, the Fightins missed the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons. Didn’t even have a winning record in any of those nine campaigns either.
Since DD arrived in late 2020, they’ve had only winning records, they’ve made the playoffs each of the past four seasons, and they won the N.L. pennant in 2022. (Hard to win Senior Circuit pennants with Dave Roberts’ Dodgers around.)
Going back to his Boston and Detroit tenures, Dombrowski’s clubs have made the playoffs 11 of the past 14 seasons. If you hire Dombrowski, he wins. Payroll goes up, and he wins and he wins. He’s the anti-Chaim.
As for the residents of Philadelphia: the only thing worse than a fool, is a phool.
“Bob, I’m unsure where you are getting your numbers from but they don’t match what ZIPs would do. For McGonigle, the Tigers still got a bargain on him as he was projected for 5 WAR seasons which at 8 years with 2 pre arb and 3 arb ZIPs projected him to be worth $190 mil. Still ahead for $40 million for the Tigers.”
Thanks for the response. Let’s examine these numbers.
I said the Tiger ownership only comes out ahead if McGonigle is a Hall Of Famer.
If McGonigle averages 5 WAR per year for his first 8 years, that’s EXACTLY what a Hall Of Famer looks like. So I don’t see how the ZiPS numbers contradict my opinion re McGonigle.Or put it this way: I would cheerfully give anyone here 3-1 odds on McGonigle putting up 40 WAR over the next 8 years. Because I’d say his chances are between 10 and 15 percent. To tally 40 WAR in his first 8 years, a player must be really great and really healthy, over and over. McGonigle might do it, but it ain’t half likely. (I’d put Griffin’s chances a bit better, maybe 20-22%.)
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“Add in the fan perception, merchandise, media, etc. The Tigers maybe could hold onto McGonigle after he becomes a free agent, but who knows at what price that would be?”
“Now, suppose one or the other wins a division title and makes the playoffs in a year that they otherwise wouldn’t have in those free agent years. How about they win a pennant? A World Series? There are so many factors that could skew things toward the team.”
As for the first part, if McGonigle is good and the team is good for his first six seasons, the fan perception and merchandise will follow. And if McGonigle walks after six years in Detroit, the team will not face substantive backlash from their fans as long as they publicly let it be known that they offered their young star a highly respectable offer — not unlike the Cardinals did with Pujols after the 2011 season.
As for the second part, if the Tigers win something important with McGonigle, after his first six years expired, it will be because of a lot of reasons. Individual players invariably get too much credit & blame in baseball. There’s no QB, no point guard. Compared to an average (i.e., 2 WAR) MLB player, K.M. would shift the win total by just a few more games per year.
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“I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $80MM for 8 years for Wetherholt is the absolute tops the contract should be. It should also give him more in the early years than he would get in the normal, year-to-year contract process. Less in the later years.”
Took the words right outtta my mouth, Forschy. Guaranteed dough of either $40MM for 6 years, $60MM for 7, or $80MM for 8. And then in each case, club option(s) through his 9th or 10th season. Options at somewhere between $25MM and 30MM per annum.
Tink topped out at 91 MPH on his 4-seam fastball. I don’t see any way that could happen unless he’s significantly compromised physically. So sad for the guy.
“It is interesting to me fans here don’t want a player extended…the money amount wouldn’t cripple the team by any means…”
I am violently opposed to a Griffin/McGonigle type of contract being offered to Wetherholt. But that does NOT mean that I’m against JJ receiving a lengthy contract extension, not at all.
As detailed in a previous comment in this thread, if Wetherholt’s first six years are a pristine parade of 4-WAR star-quality seasons and flawless health, he’ll make roughly $55MM in total. So offer him approximately 75% of that right now ($40MM), but with two or three club options at the end. Options at, say 20-22 million bucks apiece.
We all know how badly a Griffin/McGonigle contract *could* backfire. Look at what happened in the first three or four seasons of Dylan Carlson or Nolan Gorman or, yes, Jordan Walker. (I’m extremely curious to see what Jordan Walker gets in arbitration next year, if he hits .280 with 35-40 homers this season. I don’t think it’ll be much, since 2024/25 were so dismal.)
Anyway, the only position player since Pujols who would’ve worked out to the club’s advantage by signing a large early contract, would be Matt Carpenter. That’s it, he’s the only one. Donovan woulda been okay, too, but just okay (depending on the dollars involved, obviously).
Modest, Brewer-style early deals are usually okay, even shrewd. But at $100M+, they’re foolhardy at best. Basically, the only way the Pirates & Tigers come out ahead on the Griffin/McGonigle deals is if those players become Hall Of Famers.
Part of me is glad that talks with Wetherholt haven’t progressed. Actually, all of me is glad.
Most of the lengthy contracts being signed now by inexperienced major leaguers are somewhere between irresponsible and quite destructive. Except for Milwaukee’s deal with Cooper Pratt. Leave it to the Brewer front office to be smarter than everyone else. (The McGonigle deal is moronic; the club is assuming 95-99% of the risk. Only way the team saves money here is if McGonigle becomes a perennial All-Star who plays 155 games a year for the next decade.)
At, say, 50 or 60 million bucks, the Cardinals can afford to get it wrong, kinda. But not at $100MM, $120MM, or more. And that’s likely what Wetherholt’s agent is asking for, given the current panicky climate among some ownership groups.
Thanks, guys, for the responses re Fajardo. Doesn’t explain/justify the modest pitch count, but so early in the season I guess it’s a quibble, not a legit complaint. On the other hand, if it becomes a pattern of usage, then I’ll howl about it. 😉
Worth mentioning probably that Yhoiker Fajardo pitched 3 innings (54 pitches) out of the Peoria bullpen for some reason on Sunday. Too hittable with 6 safeties allowed, but just one earned run and 6 K’s to zero walks.
Don’t know why he didn’t start. Or throw 70+ pitches, as he did in his debut outing 5 days earlier. The latter matter could be a physical thing, but the former is just weird to me.
Ivan Herrera is only 25 years old, so very likely to just be entering his prime as a hitter. And he’s already very, very good.
Sometimes when a team is mediocre for several years in a row, as the Cardinals have obviously been, their best players get undervalued even by their own fan base. Here’s how well Herrera has hit over the past three seasons, compared to some well-known others.
OPS+ from 2023-2025
Mookie Betts 136
Kyle Schwarber 135
Cal Raleigh 133
Ivan Herrera 133
Rafael Devers 132
Jose Ramirez 132
Francisco Lindor 129
Pete Alonso 128Overall, Herrera ranks 19th in all of MLB over the 3-year span (min. 750 PA’s). For me, he’s a guy you offer a reasonable contract extension to, rather than someone you deal away — even if he’s only a DH and nothing but a DH. Because his major and minor league track records strongly imply that he’s gonna keep right on hitting like this for at least another half decade.
With his nagging leg injuries and sometimes ridiculous #2 lineup slot (he’s posted a sub-.800 OPS batting second in his career, and .900 hitting 5th/6th) Ivan The Terrific hasn’t gotten the RBI opportunities that his talent warrants. But he’s an outstanding hitter who just needs the chance to show it better. I really hope they keep him around.
“Heck, if we could get a pretty good outfielder who would be around for 4 or 5 years for Rainiel, the odds are good we would come out ahead.”
If by “pretty good outfielder,” you mean a 2-3 WAR guy, then no, I wouldn’t make that deal. Spending substantial money or prospect capital on a 2-3 WAR outfielder is exactly what the Birds did when they went after Fowler and Ozuna — the double debacle that veered the club toward the general mediocrity since 2015.
If on the other hand it’s a 3-4 WAR outfielder, then I almost certainly would do the deal. (But only if I was 99% sure that Rai-Rod couldn’t be successfully converted to the hot corner.)
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On an unrelated note, Chase Heath homered today. This means that over his most recent 14 games for Palm Beach, stretching back to last year, he’s hitting .370/.482/.696 with 5 homers in 46 AB’s and a stellar 9/8 BB/K ratio.
“Gurevitch started off slow but he has been playing much better lately.”
Definitely been playing better. It’s probably worth mentioning that one big reason might be the ballpark.
Gurevitch has played 30 pro ballgames, and 23 of them have been at the notorious Roger Dean Stadium. At Roger Dean, he’s been a disaster — and fanned 36 times against just 13 walks, to boot.
But in the seven games NOT at the hitter’s graveyard of R.D.S., Jack is batting .440/.563/.680 with 7 walks and 5 strikeouts. I don’t like drafting first basemen earlier than the 6th or 7th round of the draft, because they have to pretty much kill the ball to be above average regulars. (I’m still ticked off about the Cards drafting the 1st sacker from Tulane in the 2nd round when Pedroia and Pence were both available. Yeah, I know how to hold a grudge.) But I will say that Gurevitch might be much better than his Palm Beach numbers imply on the surface.
Thanks for all of the interesting responses, guys.
“P.S. Other teams might prefer Rainiel Rodriguez, who is now a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball.”
Calling Rodriguez a consensus top 100 prospect is like calling Meryl Streep a good actress. Factually true, but one heckuvan understatement.
Here’s his ranks, worst to best:
Baseball America 35th
MLB Pipeline 34th
Keith Law 29th
ZiPS computer model 26th
Fangraphs 25th
ESPN 19th
Baseball Prospectus 16th
OOPSY projection system 3rdLooks like consensus top 30. And the mean of the above rankings is 24th. Not too shabby.
Anyway, since there’s been so much speculation on this thread about the future of the catcher position in St. Louis, here’s my platonic ideal moving forward — assuming all of these guys keep performing well, and stay generally healthy. (That’ll never happen, of course. This is just the dream version.)
Herrera becomes full-time designated hitter (and emergency backup backstop) and signs an extension through age 31 or 32. Crooks and Bernal become a catching tandem long term, dividing plate appearances fairly equally. Rai-Rod switches to the hot corner, assuming he has average aptitude there. And the strapping Juan Rujano moves to the outfield — LF if he runs okay, RF if he doesn’t.
“Isn’t there a DSL catching prospect that put up very good numbers?”
You’re thinking of Juan Rujano, 27, who just turned 18 in December. Big backstop (6′ 3″ and 190) who posted a solid 120 OPS+ or so in the DSL last year. Bad news, he fanned 23% of the time, which is awfully high for that level of competition.
Good news, he seemed to be much, much better by the end of their brief season.
Started 3-29 with just 3 walks and 9 whiffs. Thereafter, he mashed .333/.466/.516 with an acceptable 16/25 BB/K. Strong arm and big exit velocities for a teenager.You certainly may get your wish, Albert.
Crooks & Bernal are definitely producing right now in Triple-A, and I for one do not consider them blocked at all by Pages or Pozo. (Herrera is a whole other matter. I wanted the Panamanian behind the plate so badly, for some time. But with Ivan’s three leg injuries in the past 12 months, caution suggests that idea should be completely abandoned, to keep the 25-year-old in the lineup every day.)
As for our minor leaguers, the projection systems admire Jimmy and Leo quite a lot. Specifically, the ZiPS forecast has Bernal as the #6 catching prospect in the sport, and Crooks at #9. (ZiPS has seven catchers among their top 40 overall prospects, by the way.) Clay Davenport’s computer modeling has an almost identical ranking, with Bernal the #5 backstop and Crooks #9. Excellent, right? Your potential MLB catching tandem from 2027-2031 or longer, right?
Well, the thing of it is, there’s this teenager named Rainiel Rodriguez. ZiPS lists Rai-Rod as the #3 catching prospect, behind only Carter Jensen and Alfredo Duno. Clay Davenport likes him even more. Davenport rates Rodriguez as the #1, with Duno second and Jensen actually one slot below our own Leonardo Bernal. And if you don’t go in for computer modeling, the guys at MLB Pipeline put Rainiel Rodriguez at #2 among all catchers.
If they all show average, boring, typical progress (and decent health), it should be an embarrassment of backstop riches for the organization over the next decade or so. I’m not talking Yogi Berra & Elston Howard, mind you. Just some good-to-very good options at catcher, year after year.
“Should Cards do the same with either JJ or Walker? Thoughts?”
Do the same with JJ Walker? Dy-no-mite! Really, though, not if the contract pays 80-90 cents on the stardom dollar.
These types of massive deals are only mutually beneficial when each side assumes a reasonable amount of risk. The recent signings I’ve seen were nearly all stupid from the club standpoint. The team in each case (other than the Cooper Pratt deal) was taking on darn near all of the risk.
Why do I care how much the uberwealthy Cardinal owners shell out? Because they work within a budget (a morbidly greedy budget at this point) and if they overpay for someone, it obviously limits their ability to invest elsewhere. Foolishly throw away 12 million bucks on Dustin May, and that’s money that can’t be used to improve the team in some other way. Thanks, Chaim!
