2023 Payroll

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  • #206541
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I know these discussions have already occurred on other threads, but this topic is important enough to stand on its own – especially since Derrick Goold’s conclusion (based on conversations with the Cardinals) is different from other data I’ve seen.

    Even if you don’t subscribe/can’t read the P-D story, this Twitter thread has a lot of info.

    #206546
    1982 willie
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    Doesn’t mean the Cardinals are going to be serious players in the free agent market. If they were serious about winning, they would go after trea turner. We have a need at short offensively. Turner would be a great leadoff for us. But I don’t see it happening. They may spend some more money but it will be wasted money in my opinion.

    #206548
    1toughdominican
    Participant

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    1982willie…They paid cash for Fermin. Hey, it’s better than paying with plastic and risking an APR upwards of 19…

    #206551
    gscottar
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    As we discussed in a different thread, according to Goold, it would appear the Cardinals have around $20M to spend. That won’t get you far in free agency so perhaps they are preparing to enter the trade market for upgrades.

    #206563
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Goolds version of “don’t get your hopes up”.

    #206564
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    He is likely repeating what the Cards are telling him. There has been wide speculation about what Mo’s “we will increase payroll” comments really mean. My guess is they spoke to Derrick to clarify – and temper expectations.

    Basically what jj said…

    #206566
    1982 willie
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    1tough, they got plenty of money to spend. Maybe quit giving so much to guys like dejong and they would have more. He never did near enough to deserve what he got, same with some other guys. I don’t know the player you are talking about, probably another wannabe but if you want the big prize, you have to get serious, quit hoping upon a star. I’m a fan no matter win or lose, but I read a lot of complaining on here after they lose which they will probably continue to unless they either get better at developing players who are not predicted to be superstars or better at coaching players up to go past their current boundaries.

    #206568
    1toughdominican
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    Free

    1982willie…Of course they have plenty of money. They probably spend more money annually paying an elite team of people to accurately count it than they do on the total salary of the 3 starting OF’ers they featured in the ’22 post-season.

    #206615
    CardsFanInChiTown
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    All of the teams that went far in the playoffs have something in common…. Two or more ace level pitchers. At this point, the Cardinals have a Clydesdale size stable of 3-5 pitchers, but not a single one that wouldn’t be debated for a game 1 or 2 of a playoff series.

    Sign Vazquez to catch, trade for an ace level guy and sign an ace level guy. And please get rid of Hudson! If TON struggles again, adding a corner OF at the deadline is probably the cheapest (in prospects) addition out there.

    #206622
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    JP Hill of VEB supports the Goold-reported accounting that has the Cards with about $20 MM of incremental spend this off-season.

    https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2022/11/12/23454139/cardinals-payroll-confusion-an-open-thread

    #206627
    gscottar
    Participant

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    Even with only $20M to spend the Cardinals could still make some significant upgrades if they go the trade route. There are some good players out there with modest salaries that might be available by trade. Instead of spending cash the Cardinals will have to spend prospect capital.

    #206638
    Nigel T
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    This thread has made me sad.

    #206653
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    “Even with only $20M to spend the Cardinals could still make some significant upgrades if they go the trade route. There are some good players out there with modest salaries that might be available by trade. Instead of spending cash the Cardinals will have to spend prospect capital.”

    Exactly!
    Sean Murphy is easily a top 5 catcher in baseball, and all he’ll make is about 4 million bucks in 2023. Also, he’s not a bum like Christian Vazquez or Tucker Barnhart, two career sub-mediocrities whose names are being relentlessly floated lately as possible Redbird targets. (Does Derrick Goold not know that Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs exist, and actually display numbers for players, indicating whether those players are any good or not?) Ugh. Over the past two seasons, here are the top 3 MLB catchers in Fangraphs’ version of WAR:

    1) Realmuto 11.0
    2) Will Smith 8.5
    3) Sean Murphy 8.4

    Then in 30th place, Vazquez with a paltry 2.0 WAR. (Again, that’s over two seasons.) And well below him, Barnhart at 0.9 WAR. In short, they pretty much stink. And they are multiple years older than Murphy. And they stink.

    —————————————————

    Cleveland may be a trade target as well. The Tribe are in a weird phase of their history, mimicking Tampa Bay with their teeny tiny payroll — and yet also winning, at least in 2022. But maybe, just maybe they’d consider a generous offer for the final two pre-free agency years of Shane Bieber. He’ll make about 10 million in 2023, and that’s only going up from there.

    Now. For three years of Murphy and two seasons of Bieber, in total you’d probably have to give up, say, Gorman or Donovan, plus Yepez or Burleson, plus Pallante or Zack Thompson, plus Matt Liberatore, plus a pair of low level but high upside prospects like Josh Baez and Alec Willis. Something like that. And payroll would only get a $15M bump, or so. And most importantly, the Cards would retain their top half dozen or so prospects. By my ranking anyway. 😉

    —————————————–

    Or just sign Senga and trade for Murphy. That’ll probably add up to just about $20M or so. (But to be blunt I can’t imagine the cubs would let the Cards out-bid them for the Japanese star.)

    #206667
    PadsFS
    Participant

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    Bob – regarding Vazquez, per B-R, he had 2.1 WAR just this past season and 1.0 last season. I like to use both sites for catchers, since the WAR values fluctuate so much defensively) He also had 2.5-3.0+ WAR seasons in each of 19 and 20 (pro-rated).

    I think he is a decently sure bet to get 1.5-2.0 WAR in 2023, which gives us more time to see what we have in Herrera. If we were to go with the internal options, Knizner and Herrera, I think we’d be lucky to see 1.5-2.0 WAR out of them.

    He also doesn’t coat a draft pick and $20M AAV (Contreras) or a boatload of prospects (Murphy) – However those are my desired options with Vazquez as the fall-back.

    #206673
    gscottar
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    Contreras is probably completely off the board for us now. I would be fine with Murphy.

    #206674
    blingboy
    Participant

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    If Mo makes a strong effort to trade for Murphy it will hurt. No second tier stuff. No spare parts. Any payroll increase may go to sign Quintana or similar reliable starter and a Dickerson level OF with MLB experience.

    #206675
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I have to say that it is a bit strange that the Cardinals are going out of their way to publicly declare that they are on the hook for for the full $35M of Arenado’s salary this year despite all of the payroll websites listing it differently. Cot’s even lists the $16M from Colorado as counting towards the reduction of the Cardinals luxury tax and I assume that MLB would scold Cot’s if that was incorrect. So if the $16M can count towards the reduction of the luxury tax then why can’t it count towards the reduction of the Cardinals 2023 payroll? I understand the Waino deferred salary issue but the Arenado contract interpretation is very hazy.

    The timing of this seems weird to me. A week or so ago Mo comes out publicly that payroll is going up. The fans then go wild and the message boards light up. It is almost as if the front office realized they had created a monster and needed to re-write the story. In steps Goold to put out the “reinterpretation” of the Arenado contract.

    I guess it is what it is and us fans have no control over it but I find it to be a bit off putting.

    #206678
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    I wouldn’t say it’s at all strange or weird. I’d say it’s genuinely in line with how these types of business people normally operate. Off putting? No, not really. I’m accustomed to it.

    #206687
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    “Bob – regarding Vazquez, per B-R, he had 2.1 WAR just this past season and 1.0 last season. I like to use both sites for catchers, since the WAR values fluctuate so much defensively. He also had 2.5-3.0+ WAR seasons in each of ’19 and ’20 (pro-rated).”

    Fair rebuttal, Pads. And thanks for the response.
    I also prefer to combine the defensive valuations of B-Ref and Fangraphs — but for all positions except catcher, since to the best of my knowledge B-Ref still refuses to include pitch framing data. I’m pretty sure that’s why Fangraphs rates Yadi Molina a Hall Of Famer with 55.7 career WAR, while B-Ref and Keith Law say he is not, with just 42.2. (Law is a funny guy. He has repeatedly, strongly implied that Molina is in fact unethical when framing non-strikes into strikes, and therefore zero credit should be given for that particular skill. No, really. But at the same time, Law wants actual rules violators Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens honored by induction into the Hall Of Fame. But I digress.)

    At any rate, I’d be grudgingly okay with Vazquez or even Barnhart, but solely as a cheapo one-year placeholder. But even then, only grudgingly. Because I feel like the timing is ideal for a Murphy trade. Three years left before free agency. He’s 28, in his prime. And the Cards are fairly overloaded with 2-3 WAR prospects and young MLBers, e.g. Yepez, Burleson, Liberatore, Herrera, McGreevy, and perhaps Gorman & Donovan depending on their development.

    If the Birds can get Sean Murphy while holding on to Walker, Winn, Graceffo, Hence, and Leonardo Bernal, then they almost have to do it. Aggressively pursuing mediocrity is what got them the Fowler, Ozuna, Leake and Matz disasters. (I confess I was in favor of the latter two.)

    #206701
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
    Participant

    Free

    NO MORE Dickerson level anything. That is the problem with this organization…they sign too much crap to save money. Raise the payroll to 220 million where it belongs and get serious in the off-season.

    #206703
    1toughdominican
    Participant

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    If they raised the payroll to $220 million, they’d have to draw 3.3 million in attendance…

    #206743
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    gscottar

    Contreras is probably completely off the board for us now. I would be fine with Murphy.

    I would defintely be interested in Murphy of course. But Contreras is a sure-fire upgrade without costing us guys like Gorman.

    League-wide catchers hit .228/.295/.368 for the year. It will be a while before Contreras would hit that poorly. Just based on that alone, he would likely be worth the contract. You can’t compare him to other positions necessarily, but he can spot start at DH and hold his own.

    #206747
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I would defintely be interested in Murphy of course. But Contreras is a sure-fire upgrade without costing us guys like Gorman.

    League-wide catchers hit .228/.295/.368 for the year. It will be a while before Contreras would hit that poorly. Just based on that alone, he would likely be worth the contract. You can’t compare him to other positions necessarily, but he can spot start at DH and hold his own.

    I like Contreras a lot but if it is true that we only have $20M to spend then Contreras would take that up by himself so I don’t see it happening. We are going to have to part with some prospects to get any significant upgrades.

    #206754
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
    Participant

    Free

    They do draw 3.3 every year.

    #206757
    Nigel T
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    Judging by past A’s deals, it will take one of:Noot, Gorman, Yepez, Pallante,or Donovan; plus one of :Burleson, Herrera, Graceffo, or McGreavy; plus one of our lower level gems.
    MLB established making minimum, AAA star, plus a lottery ticket of value.
    I see many machinations where both teams could be happy without including Winn or Walker.
    Sean Murphy is really the obvious play.

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