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CIF – That’s a great choice! If TO stays healthy and returns to form, this will be a really dangerous lineup. That would be an extremely pleasant surprise.
If TO comes back strong and Burleson produces up to his capabilities, we could shortly have a “middle” of the lineup of –
Goldschmidt
Arenado
Walker
O’Neill
Contreras
Burleson/Yepez platoon at DHNot too many teams in MLB have anything better than that.
1td wrote:
I’d say so, BW. I’m guessing he’ll see well upwards of 500 PA’s next season, which ought to clarify the net bottom line.
Oh Lord in Heaven, I hope he doesn’t get 500 PA’s. If he does the Redbirds are in trouble. BIG trouble.
Interesting question, I would have to say Woodford.
He has gotten better every year and if he can sustain what he did last season, with added
innings, then he will be a legit spot starter/long relief guy.
Now some may think last season was a fluke, but I think he has the stuff and confidence to continue
his hi level of pitching for the Cards or another team. 50 inngs may not be enough for judgement, but it certainly is getting attention.My surprise pick…Nolan Gorman. He’s generally taken we to his second look at every level. I say he hits .250+, his K rate drops under 30% and he hits 30ish dingers.
Nootbaar as my pleasant surprise, that he will continue his career numbers to date. 120 ops+ and 3.7 war/600
When I see him mentioned on this forum, he’s either a regression candidate because he’s overachieving his prospect ranking, in a trade package for 2yrs of a part-time catcher, omitted from the everyday lineup (as a bench player) or judged strictly by his batting average (if you can believe that).
What’s interesting in this exercise is that there are so may very talented players on this team that could surprise. Any one of them could be a difference maker.
I am going to agree with 1td and stl25 and say the “surprise” of 2023 will be Gorman. I would not be surprised for him to end up with 25 HR’s and an OPS north of .800. We don’t need to be in search of a power LH bat when we already have one.
I wonder about Burleson’s power too. He did have 25 doubles and 20 home runs at Memphis in 2022, in only 109 games. Is his power being overlooked?
This is a tough one. It could be anyone of Gorman, O’Neill, Lars, Carlson, etc.
Even if it’s for prospects, I don’t see how they don’t make some sort of trade to “clean things up a bit”.
I love Yepez, but with Gorman and Burleson vs RHSP’s and everyday RH bats needing a day off in the field to stay fresh (Contreras, Nado, Goldy to be specific) I am still thinking he’s redundant.
I’m going Wilking Rodriguez. He stabilizes the 7th as a great complement between Gallegos and Helsey
My second pic is Thompson. Cardinals develop a solid bullpen as Thompson finds his inner Ken Dayley.
“When I see him (Lars Nootbaar) mentioned on this forum, he’s either a regression candidate because he’s overachieving his prospect ranking….”
Maybe some Cardinal fans feel this way, but I would hope not. Let the past guide your judgment in this matter. Here are some current major leaguers who were never on anyone’s top 100 list as Cardinal prospects, along with their WAR per 600 plate appearances for their careers thus far. (WAR is average of B-Ref and Fangraphs sites.)
Tommy Edman 4.5 WAR per 600 PA’s
Brendan Donovan 4.4
Harry Bader 4.0
Lars Nootbaar 3.9
Ramon Urias 3.6
Matt Carpenter 3.5
Randy Arozarena 3.4
Adolis Garcia 3.1
Tommy Pham 2.9
Paul DeJong 2.8
Aledmys Diaz 2.2
Luke Voit 1.8(Apologies to anyone I left out.) That’s in the neighborhood of 23,000 MLB plate appearances. All of the above were never top 100,i.e., not MLB regulars. Think on that for just a second. Moreover, like Lars Nootbaar, the vast majority of those listed above were never close to a top 100 list. I have no doubt Noot’s performance on the field will fluctuate from year-to-year as nearly everyone’s does. And he may well regress some in 2023. But it won’t be because he’s Bo Hart. Noot showed signs of unusual talent in the minors, and the last thing he did was clobber Triple-A at age 23 — a very good sign moving forward.
Here’s what somebody wrote at this website back in May of 2019:
Roughly 1,200 minor leaguers have 50 or more plate appearances so far. Of the real prospects (those under 25 years of age), only four have an isolated slugging over .200 and a K rate under 10%:
Lars Nootbaar (.256), Wander Franco (.235), Alejandro Kirk (.230), and Vlad Guerrero Jr (.244).
This doesn’t make Nootbaar any sort of elite hitting prospect. Or even a good one. But it sure makes him interesting. Nooty’s a little old for his league, but I like him anyway. I’d probably put him above both Luken Baker and Genesis Cabrera on my prospect list, among others.
My expectations for Lars were non-existent before the season. Now he’s a plausible 4th/5th outfielder long term. Maybe even more. It’s such an idiosyncratic profile, I don’t know what to expect. And that’s fun.
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