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Casino Jon dishing the rumors…
There’s a mystery team in on Rodon, and it’s believed to be the Cardinals (so maybe it’s not such a great mystery after all) #mysteryteam
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 11, 2022
This article summarizes Rodon’s overall situation. If the Cards actually signed him, it would surpass Contreras as the team’s biggest dollar FA signing ever (not previously with the Cards). So, probably not likely.
The BamTech deal dropped an extra $30M in the coffers for everyone. The payroll has tons of wiggle room after 2023 (and several holes, to be fair), which Rodon would slot nicely into. The upside is that you got a top 10 pitcher to front the rotation.
The down side is that this guy is pretty fragile. It’s like a high risk/reward Matz signing.
Best I can tell, Rondon was paid a little over $20 MM in ’22. He featured a pretty good season for SF last season, so he’s going to demand a larger stack of money going forward. Furthermore, he’s a LHP’er. If the Redbirds passed on Quintana for $13 MM, why in the world would they consider parting with almost double the amount of money for Rondon?
If the Redbirds passed on Quintana for $13 MM, why in the world would they consider parting with almost double the amount of money for Rondon?
The chances are low that they’d go for him, but the reason is upside. Quintana had a late career renaissance that is very unlikely to continue what has been a steady slide. Rodon is a top 5-10 pitcher and comes with that sort of upside. One’s an ace and one has never been an ace. That’s why they’d consider it.
No question that the last half of ’22 was the best stretch of Quintana’s career. I’m thankful for his performance during that stretch, but even at a reasonable 13 MM per, I’m happy the Cardinals had no interest in keeping him here simply because I believe he’ll level off to the guy we know going forward. The Cardinals have two LHP’ers slated for the 5 man in ’23. Three lefties in a rotation is practically unheard of. Furthermore, the Cardinal bosses have always displayed a distinct pattern of staying away from high priced FA pitchers. Rondon will want at least two years at around 25 MM per. No way they’ll consider doing that. Too risky of a proposition for them. It’s probably a sound approach.
AS Mo said, the Cardinals right now have 6 starting pitchers. They can’t just pile bodies on top of bodies to create depth. There are going to be injuries and underperformances as there are on any staff. Last season, the Cards got starts from –
Pallante – 10
Hicks – 8
Liberatore – 7
Naughton – 3
Woodford – 1
Thompson – 1
Oviedo – 1That’s 31 starts, or about 20% of all the games. Then in the first playoff game they chose a pitcher they had picked up at the deadline. He shut the Phillies out on 2 hits through 5 1/3 innings.
It’s a fluid 6 month season. Lots can happen. Including starts from your internal depth and picking up starters if needed.
Rondon will want at least two years at around 25 MM per. No way they’ll consider doing that. Too risky of a proposition for them. It’s probably a sound approach.
TD, if Rodon wanted only two years at that low a price, he’d be signed already. The expectation is that he’ll sign for 5-6 years and close to $30M per year. The Boras bluster is that he’s after 7 years…and in this crazy market he just may get it.
Mo on KMOX this morning:
“In terms of making the big splash, I wouldn’t believe many of the rumors you’re reading about now.”
Later, he said he is hearing most from agents about starting pitching.
“Our roster is pretty tight right now. If we bring someone on, it may require another move – that type of thing. Right now we are trying to assess where we are and determine what is next.”
Either Mo is playing very, very close to the vest or Casino Jon is off base again…
If anyone pays Rodon 30 MM per for 5 to 7 years, I hope it’s the Cubs. That oughta place the Redbirds in a good position for a while…
Silly stuff. If there are going to be any signings, they will be for an older LH outfield bat and/or an inexpensive relief pitcher.
If there are going to be any signings, they will be for an older LH outfield ba
Why do we need an older LH bat when two out of the four projected outfielders are left-handed and one is a switch hitter? This makes zero sense.
For the last couple of years Rodon is the guy I’d love for the Cards to snag. There are risks with everybody, but I believe Rodon is on an elite trajectory. His combination of stuff is filthy and toxic to hitters. He is the ace-type pitcher the early-round-bow-out Cardinals need. But no worries if you’re scared by the risk — rest assured Mo believes the Cards are just fine with a stable Dakota Hudsons.
I imagine Rodon will get something like 7 years and 200 million, and no amount of deferrals and backloading could make that palatable to the Cardinal front office. Not sure it should.
The Cardinal template for success won’t work unless they develop some #2 and #3 starters of their own, and soon. Before 2022, it looked like Liberatore might be one. Now, not so much.
The Birds have so much young position player talent in both the majors & minors but continue to be quite weak in young starting pitchers, Graceffo and Hence notwithstanding. I don’t see a viable 2024 rotation without trading for at least one solid starter.
1toughdominican could have said:
If anyone pays Scherzer 30 MM per for 5 to 7 years, I hope it’s the Cubs. That oughta place the Redbirds in a good position for a while…
Not picking on you, 1td, but there certainly free agents who are worth it. It’s the front office’s job to figure out who is and isn’t. Since the days of Walt Jocketty the Cards have been content to sit on the sidelines of the high risk/high reward FAs. It’s worked out fairly well. Yet… undoubtedly there have been times it didn’t. Several of us would like to see a couple big swings. Maybe Rodon isn’t it. Maybe Nola won’t be available next year. But knowing the hole in the rotation after next year, I’d like a little more than a #3/4 guy if possible.
“Right now we are trying to asses where we are and determine what is next”.
If you don’t already know Mo, you should hang out a suggestion box, as a plea for help.
Oh, LACardFan, I only mentioned an older LH outfield bat and a reliever because that’s what Mo said. Other than that, I had no basis to mention it.
He wouldn’t be signed by the Cardinals for 2 years at 25 MM per.
Normally id say you are correct. But we need to strike while we have goldy and nado in their prime. So in this case i do think they would take that deal. The problem is there is no way rodon was. He wants to get paid
Let this die! We all know it’s not happening. The money is pretty much spent.
Why would the Cardinals make a move for a starter when they’ve got a million options already?
I’d say the same thing about Max. Too much money for a pitcher. Rodon, like all pitchers, is a risky proposition at 2 or 3 years. His left arm’s already spent plenty of time up on the rack. Somebody will pay him, but I’m happy it won’t be the Cardinals.
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