2023 Lineup

So, in reading Goold’s article last night, it appears the Cardinals see Contreras as the #5 hitter, protecting Arenado.

There would be an advantage to not having the three righties stacked up.

Two of those righties are Arenado & Goldschmidt. Do we really care which hand they bat with?

Without reading anything, I assumed Contreras would hit fifth. The guy has consistent 20-25 HR power.

Interestingly, with the Cubs, he batted second most often in 2022. Not that OBP is his primary skill, but had he been on the 2022 Cards, his .349 OBP would have been fourth on the team to Goldy, Arenado and Donovan.

The L-R-L-R thing is nice if all other factors between the choices are equal, which they are not.

Bottom line, I sure wouldn’t want to waste Contreras hitting him seventh.

The guy has consistent 20-25 HR power.

Contreras hit a homer every 22 PAs last year. Coincidently, both Yepez and Gorman also hit a homer every 22 PAs. Nootbaar, the slacker, only hit one every 24 PAs.

The point I was making is there is nothing remarkable about hitting a homer every 22 PAs. But I would agree there are 87 Million other reasons why he will hit 5th.

Hitting homers at the same pace as a bunch of rookies is not a justification for super gluing him in the 5 slot. The contract as a reason makes sense at least.

My earlier point was that, given the rule about minimum batters faced by a pitcher coming in, stacking the big righties all in a row just makes things easier for the opposition later in the game.

Versus RHP

Donovan
Noot
Goldy
Arenado
Yepez
O’Neill
Contreras
Carlson
Edman

Versus LHP

Edman
Carlson
Goldy
Arenado
Contreras
Yepez
O’Neill
Noot
Donovan

Against righties, any of the 5,6,7 hitters could be interchanged. Yepez and O’Neill have higher career slugging percentages against righties that Willson (.460 and .468 v .444), but the differences are negligible.
Against lefties, Carlson and Nootbaar could certainly be swapped, if Noot keeps hitting southpaws like last year (.273/.400/.455 with a terrific 13/13 BB/K).

The idea of “protecting” Goldy/Arenado has been wildly overblown, I think. The team has a slew of very good hitters who are projected — at least by the Steamer model — as well above average #5 type bats, relative to the MLB norm of 102 OPS+ for the past three seasons. To wit:

Yepez 122 forecast
O’Neill 118
Contreras 118
Burleson 118
Carlson 115
Gorman 110 (Yeah, he’s nowhere in my lineups. There’s no room. For him or Burley.)

And Nootbaar and Donovan are 126 and 121, respectively, if they don’t hit at the top.
There’s no *great* third bat, no Pujolsian titan. But the depth of quality is exceptional. Heck, even Tommy Edman could hit 5th versus lefties if you wanted, as his career slugging % of .501 against them is just dandy.

Once we adjust for the home park, it should be a lineup that rates top 5 in MLB most days.

For me it’s more interesting to think of a sort of playing time chart. Oli seems pretty adept at playing matchups, not just straight platoons, whether they are based on stats or maintaining health with occasional rest.

This is all barring any future trades or injuries:

I could see 4 “everyday” outfielders, with each of O’Neill, Nootbaar, Carlson, and Burleson getting every ~fourth game off, or phrased another way, being a late-game matchup option every ~fourth game. (~500 PA each)

Edman gets about 10 days off (~600 PA). DeJong plays those 10 games and is a rarely used bench bat/defensive replacement at 2B.

Goldschmidt and Arenado get about 10 days off each with occasional DH days (~630 PA each). Their off days go to the guys in the rotation below.

2B and DH, along with the 20 CI games Goldschmidt and Arenado get off, are a semi-balanced rotation between Donovan, Gorman, and Yepez. (~480 PA each, likely not evenly distributed). DeJong maybe gets a handful of PA’s here too.

Plan to ride Contreras hard at C (~450 PA) with Knizner getting a healthy dose of PA’s.

Divvying up the playing time this way means there would be several different “regular” lineups, not just one. Only having one lineup with this type of a roster makes it seem like anyone not included is excess/wasted, but that’s clearly not the case.

This also goes to show that it only takes one OF injury to open significant playing time for Walker. Likewise one non-Edman IF/DH injury opens up more PA’s at DH for Contreras and any/all of Donovan, Gorman, Yepez, and the OF’s.

I’m all for trading for a rotation upgrade, if one is available, but the depth on the position player side can get diminished pretty quickly with any injuries if we trade more than one of these guys. Aiming for this kind of a distribution can also theoretically help maximize everyone’s trade value if eventually they do need to trade from this depth. Each player’s value as a proven major leaguer will be greater than it would be as a good prospect who has yet-to-prove themselves in the majors (where Gorman, Burleson, and Yepez find themselves now). They might need these kinds of players with established value to trade for SP at the deadline or next off-season.

Dreams can come true. DeJong’s brief spurt proved that a resurgence is plausible. The new hitting coach and the contract year are ingredients to stir in.

Stole the words right out of my mouth, CIF. All commonsense insights.

The best guys should play much more than those a notch below. There’s no way I want Burleson, for example, getting remotely as many games in the outfield as O’Neill, Noot, or Carlson. (And Yepez should never wear any glove, ever.) Burley’s defense doesn’t justify it, plus he should never be in the lineup versus lefties.

And I want to retract my lineup card that had Donovan 9th against southpaws. I double-checked and he hit ’em fine last year in the majors, and also did so in the minors. So despite his careless baserunning, he should top the order 145-150 times while mostly playing the keystone.

A mix-and-match collection of roster redundancies, where only three guys start 145-150 games and everyone else tops out at 110-115 or so is a terrible idea, in my opinion. Terrible for developing the young and talented hitters already on the MLB roster — of which the Cards have plenty — and also completely unacceptable for either Walker or Winn when they get the call-up.

One of the oldest and truest axioms of player development is that highly talented position players should NOT get called up to the majors until there’s an opening for them to play every day, not four days a week. It’s been said a million times, and there’s a reason for that.

This team still needs to make a trade, and probably one involving two from among Gorman, Burleson, and Yepez. None of those three should be getting a mere 200-250 at-bats, and the way the roster stands now, there’s every chance that more than one of them will. Or worse, they’ll get their 450-500 AB’s while taking a meaningful number of AB’s away from better defenders who hit just as well as they do, if not better.

Some absolute complete tee-total idiot had this listed as the lineup for 2023. I believe I saw it on Facebook from Cardinal Nation.

Edman 2B
Contreras C
Goldschmidt 1B
Arenado 3B
Donovan 2B
O’Neill LF
Nootbaar RF
Yepez DH
Carlson CF

r/Esteemed Rat