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It seems like every season there’s a pleasant surprise or two on the Cardinals. For instance, last season who thought that Donovan, Nootbaar, and Pallante would be the surprise contributors that they were.
Whom do you think will be the pleasant surprises in 2023?
Yepez? Gorman? Gomez? Walker? Liberatore? Thompson? Woodford? Hudson? Thomas? I’ll start the conjecture by picking a guy who had a line of .331/.372/.532/.905 at Memphis last season. In only 470 plate appearances, he had 20 home runs and 87 RBI. Contact? He only struck out 14% of the time. My candidate is Alec Burleson. Very few Cardinals have ever put up those kind of numbers at AAA over an entire season. He could settle in nicely to that #5 hole against right-handed pitching, if Goldy, Nado, and WC bat 2-3-4.I wonder if Burleson will be a better hitter than Gorman at the big league level? With our need for lefty bats, both should get a lot of opportunities in the next couple of years.
It seems like Burleson and Yepez could both be major contributors if they get enough playing time and that depends on a lot of factors. If either or both do get the reps, and do well, it will be pleasant, but not really a surprise.
Guys who have emerged from nowhere and might get a chance somehow are Gomez and Loutos. If either of them get a chance and come up big it would be a pleasant surprise. If the Rule 5 pitcher, I forget the name, comes through as a substantial contributor, it will be a pleasant surprise. He had a real nice year in Mexico, so its not out of the question.
Nootbaar was a pleasant surprise???
He hit .228.
He also hit a homer every 24 PAs, nearly the same pace as Contreras, every 22 PAs.
All the lefties should benefit from any rules change affecting defensive shifts. Most especially when there is a runner on first. It should help Gorman especially since he’s pull happy.
I will admit that I will be sooooo glad to see that shift done away with. Granted some teams might be able to “somewhat shift” a little but for the most part it’s over with.
Nootbaar is an enigma. He played 3 seasons at USC, and his home run totals were 1,5, and 6. His draft year, he had 198 plate appearances at low a ball with Peoria, and had 2 home runs. In 2022 with Memphis and the Cards he had 18 home runs. 14 with the Cardinals in only 290 plate appearances. Surprising.
Burleson is an inspired choice, Cranny. He’s had his dominant Triple-A season, and had his cup of MLB coffee to see what adjustments will be necessary going forward. But opportunity for Alec is the question.
As I’ve already groused about repeatedly, there just cannot be at-bats for Burley, and Yepez, and Gorman.
If Goldy, Edman, and Arenado play the same number of games as last year (452 total), that leaves 844 starts for non-catcher position players. Noot and Carlson have good health histories, so they can be penciled in for 145 games each. Tyler O’Neill played 138 in 2021, so let’s call it 135 for him. And Donovan should start at the keystone and fill in sometimes at other spots, so 145 for him as well.
If my math is right, that leaves a grand total of 274 starts for Burley, Yepez, and Gorman, combined. And that’s if Contreras never plays DH, and Jordan Walker never plays a single game in the majors this year.
For at least one legit MLB player and possibly two, there’ll be no room at the inn.
As for Noot and his power, the man is listed at 6’3″ and 210 pounds. The key was simply finding a way, over the course of 3 or 4 years, to unlock his latent power. Kudos to Jeff Albert or Turner Ward or whomever helped Lars in the minors. Because the power looks real to me now.
Who was it that lead us in BB% last season?
No, not Goldschmidt, although that would have been a fine guess.
No, not Arenado, seems he was protected well enough in the lineup.
How about Mr. OBP? Donovan right? Nope try again.
Then it has to be Super Tommy! Keep trying.
Carlson led off, must have been him.
Nope.It’s the guy OAK wanted, and TOR wanted, that STL wouldn’t part with. The Noot!
I’m guessing Gorman. He improves on his ability to put it into play and settles in as the LH bat at DH and also sees some time in the OF. I just like the pronounced power his bat generates when he makes contact. If he indeed learns to better recognize how Big League pitchers are working to him, it’ll undoubtedly be pleasant, but it won’t surprise me too much if he taters-up 30 times.
The guy I ardently hope surprises us all next year is Tyler O’Neill. If he could play an entire season in the outfield without any DL time and hit like we all know he can and use his speed to advantage That would be an enormous asset to our team. Please oh please surprise us Tyler.
You’re not kidding, Bling. I can’t remember the last time I saw a guy with almost 350 PA’s with a BA in the .220’s and a .340 OBP. Not to mention 53 runs scored with 40 RBI’s to go along with 51 BB’s. That’s a lot. The Nootz most definitely squeezes the last drop out of every PA.
To me, that large gap between BA and OBP raises a question of sustainability. Seems reasonable to wonder if the BA will go up or the OBP goes down in the future.
An example I could think of off the top of my head is Joey Gallo. Career .199 BA and .325 OBP. But he is a slugger, which is the skill that dwarfs the others.
I’d say so, BW. I’m guessing he’ll see well upwards of 500 PA’s next season, which ought to clarify the net bottom line.
Seems like there are 2 left handed bats (non starters) that will be vying for plate appearances either as DH or in the field. One is an infielder and the other an outfielder. One has big time power but strikes out a lot. The other is a pure contact hitter with a high BA and high (disciplined) OBP. Which one do you prefer hitting behind Goldy and Nado?
I haven’t seen near enough of Burleson to lean one way or the other. The only hit I can recall from him was a HR allowed by a position player. I’ve seen enough of Gorman to know that when he makes contact, the baseball has no chance, but if he can’t eliminate a decent amount of the K’s, neither does he.
Nootbaar has a .231 career batting average and a .254 BABIP, which is awfully low. His .248 BABIP last year would’ve been roughly 7th percentile if he’d qualified. His BABIP in both AA and AAA was in the .340’s, so his MLB BABIP is probably more likely to improve than regress, I would think. Or more doubles will become homers, which would drive the BABIP even further down, but result in more production anyway.
As for his walk rate, in the majors it’s been 13.6%, which a little higher than AAA but lower than AA. So I don’t see any reason to expect a big change in that area. We’ll see. I suspect that Noot is simply what he appears to be, i.e., a much better fielding and running version of Kyle Schwarber, but with a smidgeon less power.
In any case, the batting average question ties in with the general ugliness across baseball, in terms of batting averages. They are too low, and that stinks aesthetically. Hence, the shift ban. While I disagree with policing infielders, this ban should move averages up at least a little.
Seems reasonable to wonder if the BA will go up or the OBP goes down in the future.
If Steamer knows anything, they have Noot’s BA up 20 pts and his OBP staying the same.
The 2nd half of 2022, Nootbaar hit .240/.366/.480/.846 with a .248 BABIP. In addition, his strikeout percentage was 16.7%. IMO, he could sustain the strange line and be an on base machine with a lower batting average.
Mlb avg BA was .243 last season.
Mlb avg BAbip was .290 last season.Of the two tablesetters, I’m more concerned with Donovans .281 BA and .330 BAbip.
Brendan did an excellent job of beating the shift in 22′ by using the opposite field. But, with the new shift rules, how much will that effect his production?
Noot is more of a pull hitter that the new rules should help.
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