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Just to briefly elaborate on my earlier comment, here are the career OPS splits for Genesis Cabrera as a reliever, arranged by days of rest:
6+ days of rest: .584 OPS allowed
5 days: .457
4 days: .603
3 days: .564
2 days: .555
1 day: .579O days: .865
As they say on Sesame Street, one of these things is not like the others. And with our boy manager, he oughta know the Sesame Street songbook.
That lineup is almost enough to make you think the boy-ager is competent. Now if only he hadn’t wasted Genesis Cabrera yesterday. (Can’t use Cabrera today. He’s very, very good on any amount of rest — except on no rest at all, then he’s horrid.)
I’ll predict a nail-biting 3-2 Redbird win this evening. As long as Genesis doesn’t pitch.
“I’d like to ask two things. First, what is Pujols doing hitting against right-handed pitchers? And second, what is Pujols even doing on the team???”
Albert Pujols has been a below-average hitter (or worse) against righties every single year since the Obama administration ended. And last year he was absolutely terrible against them, with a batting average of .180 and an OPS of exactly .500. (For context, Adam Wainwright’s career batting OPS is .511.) So the current Cardinal manager should obviously have taken the approach that the 42-year-old Pujols would only rarely get AB’s against righties this year — in harmless low-leverage situations, and also once in a while just to stay sharp for his opportunities against lefties.
(Because last year, and this year, Albert has continued to hit like a Hall Of Famer against southpaws! Last year it was a stellar .939 OPS and this year it’s even better at .951. And THAT’S why he is still on the team. Signing him was smart! Only the usage has been dumb.)
The trouble is, instead of a manager the Cards chose to employ a boyager. And our little sapling has indefensibly given Albert Pujols twice as many plate appearances this year against righties as lefties — which has humiliated an all-time great, and more importantly made the team worse. Like yesterday, when Gorman or Yepez could have DH’d versus the BoSox righty, but Pujols started and fanned three times.
Starting Pujols against a righty is kind of like, say, using Packy Naughton as a starting MLB pitcher. It doesn’t guarantee you’ll lose, but based on all available information it unquestionably reduces your chances for victory. And no manager is stupid enough to do that when he has convenient alternatives. Right?
Pretty much a rhetorical question, eh, cranny? Graceffo in Double-A so far is allowing 0.61 walks per 9 innings (after 0.79 in High-A) and no Redbird farmhand with elite velocity has ever to my knowledge approached that sort of consistent control.
Jordan Hicks’ lowest walk rate at any level is a so-so 3.45 BB/9IP at 22 in MLB. Ryan Helsley had a very good 1.80 in Low-A at age 21. And Trevor Rosenthal posted a solid 1.97 at age 20 in rookieball. Those are the three hardest throwers who immediately spring to mind. (I have no doubt this experienced internet community can come up with one or two more names.)
Getting back to Gordon Graceffo, with his 7 innings yesterday he has 75.1 IP this year and thus has taken over the minor league lead in innings — not for the Cards, for everyone. He’s averaging nearly 6 innings per start at a time when even the very top arms are often limited to 4-4.5 frames per outing. That’s a major positive so long as his pitch counts are reasonable, which they most certainly have been.
One other positive: Graceffo has been tougher on lefty bats than righty this year. Righties have a meager .545 OPS, which is terrific…but lefties have an even more paltry .446. Finally, GG has better numbers on the road than at home; he is yet to allow a road home run in 145 ABs, for example.
The arrows are all pointing up for Graceffo, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t quite put him at the same level as Liberatore yet. But he’s getting quite close to Libby, and definitely a top 100 type right now.
…so the two batters (Gorman, Yepez) who could have, should have been in the lineup versus a righty starter instead of Albert Pujols — 0-for-3 with nothing but strikeouts — are finally given a chance to contribute in the 9th inning, and they give the team two great at-bats (against a righty, of course).
Anybody want to tell me this is Mozeliak’s fault? This is yet again Marmol, Marmol, Marmol. This game was not at Busch, no tickets to be sold. The manager is a dunce, folks.
We’re still getting a lot a good comments, thoughtful opinions. Well done, fellow Birdfans. Now I’ll get tedious and respond to a few of those thoughts.
“We’ve seen Dakota beat the peripherals, but is it fair to expect Woodford to do it long term, too? Especially when the results weren’t there in the minors.”
Interesting question. Let’s take a look at Woodford’s complete track record.
In his pro career, Woodford has 11 pitching samples in the minors and majors, ranging in volume from 11.2 to 151.2 innings. In all 11 of those samples, Jake Woodford’s ERA beat his FIP. So beating his peripherals is in fact the only thing Woodford has ever done, at any level, regardless of sample size.“There was a guy I felt the Cardinals treated similar to Woodford, and that was Anthony Reyes about 15-16 years ago or so. Reyes was a top prospect and would come up when the club needed a spot starter, pitch a gem, then go back down. He got pressed into starting game one of the 2006 World Series and again did his usual stellar job. But for whatever reason it seemed Dave Duncan did not like him.”
I’m working strictly off memory here, but I seem to recall that Reyes was terrific in the minors, with a dynamic 94-97 heater, but then was allowed to throw 125+ pitches in a shutout or no-no, and was never the same after that. His velocity soon dipped down to 89-92 and Dave Duncan hated the fact that Reyes was still pitching at the top of the strike zone with that diminished velocity. Duncan was convinced (maybe rightly, maybe not) that anyone with that middling fastball should be a groundball pitcher — or at least not try and live at the top of the zone, as Reyes was.
“Adam Ottovino also never got much of a shot. Weird how that happens. Woodford is the latest in that lineage.”
Maybe someone else can confirm this, but unless I mis-remember I think Otto at the MLB level was basically a failed starter who refused a move to the bullpen when the Cards strongly suggested it. Loggerheads ensued, and he was eventually discarded. Whereupon he wised up, switched to relief, and had a pretty great run of 6-8 years.
“I think several have indicated that Marmol/Mo/the Cards’ treatment of Woodford is just shy of criminal, or at least savagely incompetent. To me, that doesn’t mean he’s a back end starter who’s just not getting his due. I get the sense that the consensus here is that he’s a surefire starter (which to me is at least a #4) or one of our better relievers.”
I like that. “Savagely incompetent.” Wish I’d thought of it, 25. Speaking just for myself, I think Jake W. is a #4/5 starter if given the opportunity. Or maybe a high-leverage swingman/long man, if his team already has a quiver full of high-quality starters. (Over the winter, I was not upset at all that Steven Matz was signed, rather than the 5th starter role handed to Woodford. I figured Woodford would be a great guy to have as a starter-in-waiting, working 40-70 pitch outings in the bullpen.)
My blood-boiling level of upset re Woodford isn’t because I think he’s really, really good. It’s because I think he’s much, much better than the role Marmol immediately & inexplicably put him in, which was back-of-the-pitching-staff garbageman. And due to the particular circumstances of this year’s team (pitching injuries, doubleheaders both scheduled and unscheduled), that bizarre misusage of Woodford has in my opinion been considerably more damaging than it might have during a different season.
As mentioned previously, rather than give Woodford (2.51 ERA last September in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance) a rotation shot for even one game, Marmol has given numerous starts this year to pitchers who have never even succeeded as starters at the AAA level, much less the majors. Instead of giving his team the best chance to win, Marmol has prioritized NOT given a legit MLB hurler an opportunity to show what he can do. And that really ticks me off.
Agreed, cranny, but with the exception of Yepez. Juan hit righties better than lefties last year across AA/AAA, and he’s hitting righties much, much harder than southpaws so far in the majors (OPS gap of over 250 points).
I do think Burly would be quite fine versus MLB righties, probably about as stellar as Yepez has so far (.287/.336/.485). The other thing about Burly, he’ll never win a Gold Glove but at least he’s an actual outfielder. It borders on unkind, putting Yepez out there to embarrass himself.
“Burleson a younger, lefty Luke Voit? I really like his bat, and his arm. Sort of like Donovan, I think he’s gonna be limited by his ability to play the field well. But with the DH around, he looks to have a future in St Louis.”
Intriguing idea, 25. But it’s so hard to compare anyone to Voit, since Voit violated tradition by just hitting better and better the higher he rose through the minors. I see Burly as quite similar to a different current major leaguer, a lefty-hitting outfielder — best when used primarily in a platoon scenario — who posted a dandy 11.5 WAR from age 25-29 (2.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances). I am talking about this guy: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml
Question is, given the roster composition (majors & minors) and the team needs, would you swap Burly or Yepez for a mere reliever? Assuming, let’s say, the reliever has 3+ years of control remaining and a multi-year track record of effectiveness. Dillon Tate would sort of fit that model, I think. (I don’t believe Nootbaar + a sweetener gets you that type of reliever. But I do like Noot enough for a 4th/5th Redbird outfielder going forward.)
That blast was a Walker-off.
Sorry, I couldn’t stop myself. And I agree, ChiTown, that the quintet you mentioned will probably all be among the Redbird top 10 prospects. An early-early guess of my own list would be, in order, Walker, Winn, Herrera, Burleson, Graceffo, gap, McGreevy, Connor Thomas, Gomez, Hence, and Malcom Nunez, Won-Bin Cho, or some other teenage position player of note.“If the Cards had more than three reliable relievers, I could be more critical of starter usage.”
Well, I think it could be argued that the roster provided the manager with five reliable relievers, and he has chosen to jettison one (Woodford) and kinda sorta convert the other to starting (Naughton). When I say “jettison,” I don’t refer to his being demoted to AAA. I mean removed from any meaningful role within the bullpen, and reduced to garbage-time guy.
Be that as it may, going forward if Flaherty & Liberatore are in the rotation, then Pallante and Naughton are multi-inning guys out of the pen in support of the Big Three. That’s a real fine foundation for an MLB relief roster. If Marmol sticks with Pallante as starter, then Liberatore can remain in the majors and until needed to start, he can be a 2-4 inning reliever a la The Earl Weaver Method.
Anyway, upon even further reflection, I wanna retract half of my previous complaint. I’m not sure that 15 pitches per inning for 8.2 innings (129) was much more stressful for Mikolas’ arm than the 20 pitches per inning for 5.2 (115) that he threw two weeks ago. As Forschy said, I’m sure Miles was gassed by the end. But at least a portion of that had to be the heat/humidity. I have heard that sometimes it gets humid in St. Louis.
I don’t think it can work. So I’m against it.
From what I’ve seen and read, the technology is still a long ways away from being an improvement upon the status quo. Hitters come in too wide a range of heights, for one; the computers aren’t yet sophisticated enough to adjust for that — not from what I’ve seen.
And on a more I guess philosophical note, I think excessive perfectionism is an insidious form of mental illness that we already have faaar too much of in sports — all sports, all levels. Electronic umps are just the latest manifestation. “Get the call right” should be a strong preference, yes, absolutely. But not the all-consuming obsession it seems for some fans. But I know I’m an outlier in this matter….
I believe kscardfan was left speechless by Gordon Graceffo’s excellent Double-A pitching performance! He was no Miles Mikolas but he did hold his opponent to just a trio of singles across 7 innings. Lowered his Springfield ERA to 2.78 and overall season number to 1.58 with a 72-to-6 strikeout-to-walk tally.
Wonderful effort by Mikolas, and whale of a day for Goldy (again). But 129 pitches is an awful lot, no-hitter or not.
In real time, I admit I was in favor of leaving Miles in; I thought it was a grey area decision. But now, as I examine his 4-year Cardinal career, I see that he never once threw even 110 pitches in a game until two weeks ago. (And then it was only 115.) Knowing Miles’ history, the manager should have pulled him after 7 innings when the count was 98.Well, get plenty of rest, Miles. You earned it, and I’m sure you need it.
And call this retroactive praise for both Matheny and Shildt, for never once pushing Mikolas to an unhealthy degree from 2018-2021.
“I would always prefer to see a Cardinal farmhand get the opportunity over a veteran reject from outside the organization. My point is that I strongly believe that the Cardinal front office controls almost everything and the manager takes his cue from above if he knows what is good for him.”
I’m with you all the way, on your first point, GScott. The Cards have done such a solid job during the Mozeliak years at developing from within, it’s usually been more successful (and always more efficient, or cheaper if you prefer) to go with their own guys, both pitchers and position players. (What would the past 5, 6 years look like if the Cardinals had never traded for Ozuna or signed Fowler and the pricey “proven veteran relievers”? It’s a thought experiment that would only make me sad.)
But if your second observation is taken at face value, it sounds like you’re saying the same front office that presumably fully endorsed Jake Woodford as a starting pitcher during last year’s exhilarating September playoff chase has now decided that Woodford doesn’t deserve any role within the team at all — or at most, Garbagetime Mopup Eunuch.
And I find that extremely unlikely. Unless, again, the reason they want Woodford to have no role this year is a personal kerfuffle between him and Ollie. I find that scenario quite plausible, and it would be 100% Marmol’s responsibility to fix that. That’s part of his job description, part of what MLB managers have to do: keep personal matters from infecting their roster decisions, lineups, pitcher deployment, etc.
These numbers include the first half of today’s doubleheader. Redbird ERAs and innings pitched since Sept. 1, 2021. Pitchers listed alphabetically and sans comment.
Cabrera: 1.94 ERA in 41.2 IP
Gallegos: 2.97 ERA in 39.1 IP
Hudson: 3.15 ERA in 74.1 IP
Mikolas: 3.51 ERA in 105 IP
Wainwright: 3.04 ERA in 109.2 IP
Woodford: 2.83 ERA in 47.2 IPI’m gonna be a snob here. (So what else is new?)
If we define a “high-quality game” as any win over a good opponent, or a win by 3+ runs over a bad opponent, then the Cards haven’t played a single “high-quality game” since the 14-5 shellacking they laid on the cubs almost two weeks ago. Let’s get some insurance runs, guys, and make this a high-quality game!
Thanks, Pugs. It’s amazing how easy it is to get these numbers. Right there in the public domain.
Any coach or manager who is anti-information and anti-meritocracy is unlikely to ever get anything but scorn from me, I’m afraid. Marmol is bad news. Bad as a leader, worse as a tactician. Grade D.
Can’t pitch Genesis Cabrera on back-to-back days. His whole career says so, and especially this year. But let’s just look at his career splits, as a reliever:
4 days rest: .508 OPS allowed
3 days rest: .564
2 days rest: .555
1 days rest: .579
0 days rest: .835Again, Marmol ignores this information. Over and over, he ignores everything that occurred, for every player and pitcher, before he took over as a major league manager. Since nothing ever happened in baseball before Ollie took his managerial seat in the dugout, why should he give it any weight? I do not like this guy. Could you tell?
“But I feel that Walker could be something very special with the bat. He could hit 30 homers, drive in 100 plus runs, while hitting with a high average. Even throw in some surprising speed/base running for a big guy.”
Agreed 1,000,000%. I think Jordan Walker’s upside = Matt Holliday with better defense and baserunning. And that’s a superstar. Take Judge + Stanton + Dave Winfield, put them in a blender, and you’ve got Jordan Walker. Look out, N.L. Central.
Twas 8 up, 8 down for the Big Three. A thing of beauty. And nobody threw more than 12 pitches.
Speaking of Redbird relievers…when pitching from the pen this year, Packy Naughton has a 0.00 ERA in the majors (6 innings) and 1.84 in Memphis (14.2 IP). So it appears the Cards may actually have a quartet of trustworthy relievers. Make a deal for some solid Oriole or Oakland reliever, and once Jack Flaherty returns this could be a fairly imposing staff — or at least above average.
Baltimore by the way currently has 7 relievers with at least 10 innings and a sub-2.75 ERA. (Okay, Krehbiel is on the DL. But 6 are still healthy.)
We need a reliever, Mo. They got more than they can handle.
If I were his friend or coach or uncle, I’d tell Tre Fletcher to retire from pro baseball right now with this perfect record intact. Seriously. He has no future in the sport, not as a player. So why not have an unbreakable record for futility? One brand of immortality is better than none.
Antico’s had to carry that team since Winn was promoted, and that’s a heavy burden. I wonder if he could maybe be a 4th/5th outfielder at some point down the line if his glove is good — problem is, both BPro and Clay Davenport’s evaluation systems say Antico is not a good defender of the great green baize.
“In the way-too-early OPS stats for our Complex League team, there are 4 standouts. SS Espinoza has a 1.108, 1B Reynosa 1.764, RF Cordoba 1.283, and De La Rosa 1.353. I hope some can stay anywhere close to these numbers.”
Thanks for providing those numbers, 27. I looked it up, and those guys are all teenagers, too. Don’t know whether 18 or 19 is more age-appropriate for guys at that level. (As I’m sure you’re aware, until a couple years ago there were three levels of play in between the Dominican Summer League and full-season Low-A ball. Now there’s just one. Sigh. Which is really, really, really short-sighted cheapskatery, and dumb. But there you have it.) But anyway, the performances are fun so far.
“Perhaps Mo is indifferent towards Woodford, therefore, is going with Marmol’s recommendation but I can’t imagine Jake would be sitting in Memphis if Mo really wanted him in St. Louis.”
On your very final point about Woodford’s demotion, I couldn’t concur more strongly, GScott. It’s Mo who decided to send Woodford to Memphis — probably because of the severity of the falling out between Jake and his manager. Maybe Marmol and Woodford can’t be in the same room together. Or maybe Mo figured it was best to keep Woodford more stretched out in AAA, to keep his trade value higher. Or maybe Mo assumed, hoped at least, that Marmol would eventually cool off, grow up, and come to his senses and realize that for the good of the team it would be best to have Jake Woodford contributing in the majors in a role commensurate with his track record. (Because that’s what grown-ups do.) I dunno.
In any case, it doesn’t matter one whit if Woodford is in the majors or not, as long as Marmol is using him as Pointless Fungible Mopup Garbageman. And that is exactly where Marmol indefensibly assigned him as soon as the season began. And even as Woodford pitched effectively in that humiliating role, Marmol kept him jailed there. It is obvious now, that no matter what happens with Woodford or anyone else, Jake will never get a chance with Marmol as manager.
Think about this extraordinary fact: As Zack Thompson makes the start tonight, Zack becomes the FOURTH different starting pitcher this season under Marmol who has had no history of even Triple-A starting success. It’s an overarching managerial philosophy known as “Anybody But Woodford.”
It’s hard to know how to react to Marmol’s unprofessional nonsense, because we have never seen it from a Cardinal manager before. Literally never. (Not in my 50 years as a fan anyway.) But we have well over two months of irrefutable evidence: Ollie Marmol is managing a major league baseball team while prioritizing an intractable personal grudge, rather than prioritizing winning baseball. It’s ugly, and for his particular occupation, in my opinion unethical.
I agree, Sooner, about the umpiring and the damage that inflicted. But as for the other thing, Knizner hasn’t hit a lick for six weeks. I wouldn’t advocate pinch-hitting for him if there had been fewer than two outs, OR if the game hadn’t been so tight (it was tied, of course), OR if there had only been one man on base — but of course the sacks were jammed. Every condition had to be met, in order to pinch-hit there. And every condition was met.
A hit there scores multiple runs, and a multi-run lead entering the 6th inning, with all the best relievers available, very likely means a win. It was just the bottom of the 5th, but there was never a more key situation in the game — before or after that moment. (The hitter to use was Dylan Carlson, who did in fact hit for Knizner in the 8th, pointlessly, with a 3-run deficit and the bases empty. Now THAT was a wasted pinch-hitting deployment. Marmol had his chance in the 5th and missed it, and a big situation never came again. This is a DH league now, so you don’t need to save pinch-hitters any more. Marmol blew it.)
But Knizner’s (highly predictable) failure left the game a toss-up. And as far Knizner looking over his shoulder…well it’s the middle of June in a tight race for first place. Can’t worry about the fragility of players’ psyches at this point. Gotta win games. And it’s not like Knizner is the Catcher Of The Future, either. That’s Ivan Herrera — who should be called up within the next month, if Yadi and Andrew continue to flounder this badly at the dish, while Herrera hits .300 with good plate discipline and some pop for Memphis. As a batter, Herrera has basically a Brendan Donovan profile, and we’ve seen how well that can potentially translate at the MLB level.
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And I keep hearing how forthcoming, how candid, how transparent Ollie Marmol is. All I see is a manager who’s full of crap when he talks about Jake Woodford, his truly major gaffe — major not simply because of Woodford in and of himself, but because of how Marmol’s bizarre dismissiveness toward Woodford has directly resulted in self-destructive nonsense like Packy Naughton making two MLB starts, and Jordan Hicks straining the bullpen with his own abbreviated starts, and untested/undertalented relievers being given roles beyond their ability — VerHagen in particular.
If Marmol just didn’t want Woodford to be his 5th starter exiting Spring Training, then fine. He was dead wrong for several reasons, but fine. He then still had the chance to use Woodford constructively as a medium-to-high-leverage multi-inning man. But no, Woodford was made Marmol’s whipping boy, the garbage mop-up man. And we still don’t know why.
Transparent, my Aunt Fanny.
End rant.
