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“Regarding Blaze Winn catching Walker, I don’t think we are there yet. It’s exciting to think about him leading off, stealing 50 with a .350 OBP. I don’t see Edman getting to 50 but he’s on pace for 35+.”
I agree with you and StL25, ChiTown, that we aren’t quite there. But we’re getting closer by the week. Masyn Winn has played 50 games. If we triple his 2022 stats to a 150-game season:
.332 average with 57 doubles, 21 triples, and 12 homers. And 48-for-51 stealing bases. Wow.
But that’s mostly extrapolated from his High-A numbers; what happens if we just take his Double-A hitting performance, and pro-rate that to a full season?
How about a .300 average with 27 homers and 71 doubles? Not too shabby. I mean, for a shortstop in Double-A who just turned 20 a few weeks before Opening Day, and who steals bunches of bases while rarely being caught, and who is yet to ground into a double play this year. For a guy like that, who bats .300 with 98 extra-base hits. Not shabby at all.
My favorite stat about Winn this year, though, is this one: Masyn Blaze Winn is on pace to be the first age-appropriate minor leaguer to rank in the top 15 in all of minor league baseball in both doubles and triples in the same season, since at least 2005. (Fangraphs’ minor league records only go back to 2006. And B-Ref research would be faaar too tedious for this question.)
He is currently 5th in doubles and 2nd in triples, in all the minors. That’s nuts. For me he is a no-doubt top 12-15 overall prospect. (Anyone ranking him much lower than that is either a fool or not paying attention.) I have him 7th, three spots behind Jordan Walker. And even if Winn were to go 0-for-300 for Springfield the rest of the way, he’d still be a top 20 overall prospect because of how he absolutely dominated High-A both at the plate and on the bases at a young age. His 90th percentile upside is roughly the 2019 & 2022 versions of Tommy Edman, and that’s roughly a superstar.
“Can anyone explain why Woodford is in Memphis?”
To answer your original question, cranny, just a week or two ago Ollie Marmol offered a sportswriter the bogus explanation that Woodford had to “improve his slider because his slider was better last year.” That’s it. That’s allegedly why one of the team’s better utility pitchers has been demoted below such dregs as you detailed in your post. It’s 100% nonsense, of course. All that matters at the MLB level is whether a pitcher gets people out.
It’s irrelevant whether any single specific pitch is as good as the manager wants it to be, because every pitcher in history has a pitch they could theoretically improve upon. Major league pitchers who are already succeeding, have of course always been allowed to keep on succeeding while still trying to sharpen their repertoire. So either Marmol is lying about the “slider” rationale, or he’s the stupidest person on the face of the earth. Therefore, he’s lying. Therefore, Woodford must simply be in Marmol’s doghouse. (Perhaps because he was insubordinate when he won Flaherty’s vacated starter role fair & square in Spring Training, and it was handed to Jordan Hicks instead. But that’s only my personal guess.)
This bizarre misallocation of talent (there is zero precedent to this weirdness in the half century I’ve followed the Cardinals) has been publicly excused and rationalized by many people in many different ways. But any way you slice it, a good MLB pitcher had his role within the team reduced, and then removed entirely, while some really, really bad pitchers have continued to remain with the team and make the Cardinals worse via the innings that Ollie Marmol gives them.
Under Shildt, Jake Woodford was the classic swingman. He was used in long relief last year, then was available to smoothly transition to a starter’s role in September — where he conspicuously flourished with a 2.51 ERA over five starts, twice shutting down the hated rival Brewers. So I don’t know why anyone would blame Mozeliak rather than Marmol for the bass-akwards treatment of Woodford this season. Mo has been here all along, and neither Woodford nor any other Redbird pitcher has gotten such a shaft over the past few years — or the past five decades for that matter.
“I had the late Cardinal scout, Charles Peterson, tell me that all of the Cardinal scouts misevaluated him and should have taken him higher out of Stanford.”
Ah, but those same Cardinal scouts did a better job evaluating Tommy than the scouts from every other organization. That’s why we’ve got him now.
I look at Tommy’s college numbers and understand how he lasted until the 5th round of the draft.
Stanford career: 168 games, .281 with 4 HR, 5 3B, and 31 2B. And he was just 15-for-23 stealing.
So we see that he wasn’t particularly good at anything — except presumably defense. He slugged a dreadful .365 with metal college bats for his college career, and just .371 his final season, so there was no indication that he was improving. But the Cardinal minor league scouts/coaches saw something and DID help him improve markedly at driving the baseball. (His per-AB HR rate has quadrupled, from college to the major leagues.) And somebody sure taught him something about stealing bases.Guys like you hit the nail on the head, GameCard. Even after Tommy’s terrific 2019 debut, I didn’t think he would settle in as a star-quality major leaguer. But thanks to speed, defense, and durability he’s been an incredible asset to the organization — as people like you said from the start.
“I asked this in the game thread as well, apologies for the double ask but is Walker hurt? He wasn’t in the lineup yesterday or today.”
Jordan Walker is NOT on the 7-day injury list, so whatever ails him is apparently not too serious, chitown. (Nothing on the team website, either. But you likely knew all that anyway.) It’s a shame he missed some of the games at Midland, as that is one of just 2 or 3 series in his entire season when the Springfield Birds will play in a Texas League hitter’s park.
Here’s a question I did not think I’d be asking this year: if for the sake of discussion Walker is going to be a corner outfielder of average defensive contributions, and Masyn Blaze Winn is going to be an average MLB defensive shortstop, then has Winn caught Walker in terms of overall prospect rankings?
“Bob Reed, yes he could have used them but when you only have 3 effective relievers you have tô be picky about when you use them. Also, didn’t Gallegos throw 33 pitches just 2 days ago? He was probably basically unavailable for another day.”
You’re right, CC, about Gallegos and the 33 pitches on Friday. I agree he might not have been available — though he is the “rubber arm” of the trio for sure. And I think the decision to leave Hudson in for the 7th inning was a gray area quandary (unlike pinch-hitting for Knizner with the bases loaded and two outs in a tied game). I would not say that Marmol unquestionably fouled up by leaving Hudson in. It was a 60-40 decision at most.
But my thinking went like this. Hudson wasn’t in the midst of a good pitching performance; he was having a bad game. And the Big Three not only had yesterday off, all three also didn’t pitch on either Thursday or Wednesday against Tampa. Thus, there’s some accumulated rest there, so to speak.
And finally, none of the Big Three has really been ridden that hard this year. Entering play Sunday, Cabrera was on pace for 57 appearances and 72 innings, Gallegos on pace for 59 games and just 61 innings, and Helsley for 62 innings and a mere 51 games. Genesis is tied for 19th in MLB relief innings, and none of them are even in the top 75 in appearances. So these are pretty darn relaxed numbers, by current reliever standards. Therefore, with a tied game or leading by a little, in the 7th or later, for me today was a day to go with those three — again, unless Hudson had been very sharp, which of course he wasn’t.
And yes, I am probably the most long-winded baseball commenter you know. You win that bet. 😉
Masyn Winn did okay without him, though. 😉
One day after his first caught stealing of the season, he had a homer, double, and single, to raise his Double-A average back to .300, with a near-.900 OPS.On a barely related note, I recall Bernie Williams in one Yankee playoff game, failing to run on a lazy popup/fly ball between the infield/outfield. The ball dropped and Bernie was standing at first base, when he easily should have been at second.
Then later in the same playoff game the EXACT same thing happened again! Same hitter, same dropped fly in no man’s land, same result. No hustle, and standing on first instead of second. Far as I know, Bernie Williams was never disciplined publicly or privately by Joe Torre. (Well, I know for a 99% fact in didn’t happen publicly.)
This feels like an insecure young Marmol was simply making an example of Bader, to show everyone who’s boss. No big deal, in all likelihood. Bader fessed up, punishment over.
Trouble is, in a way this is the same thing Marmol is doing with Jake Woodford, obviously. No halfway competent manager at any level, amateur or professional, is actually stupid enough to stop using an effective pitcher because a single specific pitch of his isn’t quite as good as the manager would prefer. (In Woodford’s case, the allegedly defective slider.) You use the effective pitchers, and do not use the ineffective ones. That’s how you win games, and Ollie of course knows that much.
So Woodford is being punished for something — endlessly punished, apparently. And that would be bad enough…but the team is being punished as well, every time an inferior pitcher is given meaningful innings (starting or bullpen) that could and should have gone to Jake Woodford, whose MLB earned run average is 2.83 since Sept. 1 of last year (FIP ~3.20). That covers 47.2 innings.
Okay, we get it, Ollie. You’re the boss. Now please put your hitters and pitchers into positions where they are likely to succeed. Thanks.
“This one is on Mo. Hudson pitched longer than he should have because not enough effective bullpen arms.”
Not sure I see that, CC. Unless someone was unavailable, why couldn’t Marmol have used Cabrera, Gallegos, and Helsley to cover the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings?
…just completing the thought on Knizner batting with the bases loaded and two outs in a tied game.
Andrew Knizner since May 2 is slugging .177. He has 11 total bases in 62 at-bats. I understand if Goldschmidt was unavailable to hit for him, or for Albert in the 9th. But when Carlson hit for Knizner in the 8th, we found out that hitting for Knizner was a possible strategy all along. Ollie Marmol is in over his head, as a tactician and as a roster manager. Just terrible today.
So Carlson hits for Knizner with the bases empty, down by three runs?
If pinch-hitting for Knizner was in fact a possibility all along, then why not do it when it counts — like with the bases loaded and two outs in a tied game? Sigh. Bad managing. Real bad.
Don’t look now, but Paul DeJong is 14-45 (.311) for his last 11 Memphis games.
And much more importantly, 7 homers and just 7 strikeouts during that same stretch. It’s time to bring him back and see if any of that power/plate discipline carries over.Maybe that’s what Jake Woodford is being punished for. For the past ten weeks. Effort problem.
I didn’t see the entire game. What did Bader do/not do?
“I guess we could just use Cabrera, Gallegos, and Helsley every single day and see how that works. Eventually someone else in the bullpen has to get some outs.”
Yup, well said, gscott. Now if only the manager had someone of quality to go to fortify his bullpen. Nothing crazy, nothing special. Just someone who, say, had a major league ERA in the 3’s this year, and also a major league ERA in the 3’s over a full season last year. If only he had someone like that….
Is it just me, or did it make really, really good sense for Tommy Edman (7th inning with men on the corners and one out and a 3-1 score) to drop down a safety squeeze? Instant run if the ball is fair, and maybe an infield hit — Tommy is very fast and batting from the left side, infield NOT playing in. Even if Edman is thrown out, it’s a 3-2 game with the tying run moved over to scoring position.
Or are safety squeezes not in the “modern metrics” playbook that Ollie Marmol allegedly adheres to so strictly? I know Tommy can bunt. I have seen him bunt.
I probably wouldn’t do it in the 8th inning, as outs are getting so precious. But the 7th? Different case. And again, this isn’t a pitcher bunting. It’s a very fast player, from the left side of the plate. Sigh.
Thanks for the responses, gents.
I wasn’t sure Burly would make the list, cranny, until I began piecing it together. But Alec makes it because he’s borderline dominating AAA at an age-appropriate level, and especially because he is hitting for excellent power without striking out much (just 13% entering play on Friday) — this makes his long-term offensive potential substantially more robust than if he had a merely average strikeout rate of 20-22%. His baserunning and defense don’t add anything, so I think Burly is likeliest to be a 1.5-to-2 WAR corner outfielder for a few years…but with the possibility of a 3-WAR season or two mixed in.
I see Donovan as more a top 150-200 overall prospect, CC, rather than top 75-80, which is roughly what’s needed to make a top 50 position player list. Brendan Donovan deserves a ton of credit for how he’s acquitted himself for the Redbirds. But he’s a 25 1/2-year-old with no set defensive position (and below average career minor league fielding numbers at the only two public sites, Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport), and no meaningful baserunning value. So even if he hits well, good-to-great bench guy would be his future, to me.
But I hasten to add that if he keeps hitting anything like he has so far under the Arch, and also did last year in the upper minors, then I’ve truly underestimated him and he’ll have to start at some position just to keep the bat in the lineup. Sorta like a utility version of Luke Voit. (I rip on Ollie Marmol a lot, for many reasons. However, I have to say he’s generally done a stellar job incorporating the younger players like Brendan into his lineups in situations where they have a good chance to succeed.)
Flaherty needed 59 pitches tonight to go 4 innings, Bling. Not terribly efficient.
But he only allowed 1 baserunner (solo shot) while striking out 6 hitters — which is darn near flawless. So I’d say it’s time to send Jack packing for St. Louis. If Hicks and Packy and Pallante can make MLB starts while limited to 50, 60, 70 pitches, then surely Jack Flaherty can be permitted to start in the majors with a 70-75 pitch ceiling.
It’s not complicated. In fact, it’s really straightforward.
Albert Pujols is in fact washed up — but only against righties.He is still outstanding against lefties. Just like last year, as Brian Walton pointed out, with the supporting numbers to prove it.
It is Oliver Marmol’s ongoing and 100% inexcusable mismanagement of Pujols that has created the illusion that Albert can’t hit anymore. He hits lefties and only lefties. It was true when the Cards got Albert — but just like with Jake Woodford (and Naughton, and Pallante, and others) Marmol has chosen to ignore anything and everything that happened before the day he took over as manager.Please, gentlemen. Don’t let Ollie Marmol’s arrogance and ignorance trick you into believing something that isn’t true.
Now that I have supported your post, Mr. Walton, can you cut me in on a share of your share of the Denver Broncos? 😉
And Nolan G. might be one of those sluggers who just always strikes out a lot. I absolutely HATE the whiffs, but as long as he produces, that’s 99% what matters.
All-time career K leaders:
1. Reggie Jackson
2. Jim Thome
3. Adam Dunn
4. Sammy Sosa
5. Alex RodriguezOthers in the top 20 include Miguel Cabrera, Willie Stargell, Mike Schmidt, Tony Perez, and Derek Jeter.
“Well, perfect example of why you use Helsley two innings last night. He would have tonight off and most likely we would be split going into the rubber game.”
Well said, Willie. Or at the very least, Marmol should have had Helsley begin the 10th inning. You can always remove him at, say, 26 or 28 pitches if necessary. Sure didn’t need him tonight.
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“Watching this and just thinking: What happened to McFarland this year? Stats were not that bad last year?”
“Wooster, was thinking the same thing…
McFarland entered tonite’s game with a 7.65 ERA and a WHIP of 1.75. These stats only got worse with his outing tonite. How much longer can they keep utilizing this guy?”McFarland was grabbed off the scrap heap last year, and put up a fine couple of months. But he’s one of MLB’s least consistent relievers over the past decade, with several terrible seasons interspersed with excellent and mediocre ones. (He has 0.2 career WAR, per Baseball-Reference.) This year he’s bad, so dump him. It’s a pretty easy choice, and likely would’ve been done 4-6 weeks ago by a competent manager. But our Boy Wonder appears to have very little understanding of which pitchers are starters, and which are relievers. And which are good, and which are not. Naughton, not a starter. McFarland, not good. Not this year.
What’s really galling is that Matt Liberatore pitched tonight in AAA. Six innings, two runs. Nice, normal, boring outing that ate innings and kept his team in the game. The kind of outing that Packy Naughton and Jordan Hicks and Andre Pallante might literally never have in the majors as starting pitchers. But Marmol is gonna keep on trying, no doubt. Packy Freakin’ Naughton and Andre Pallante are getting MLB starts instead of Jake Woodford and Matt Liberatore. No doubt Marmol will give Oviedo some more starts, too. Have to find every single solitary way possible to avoid giving Jake Woodford a start.
Here’s all you need to know. The Cards were off just two days ago, and yet tonight they used Yadi as a reliever because they ran out of other better choices. That’s grotesque pitching staff mismanagement. That’s when you know your manager is in over his head.
You make a fair point, Willie. Carp in NY doesn’t need to be a Big Bat.
But then, he also was murdering the ball this year in the Texas organization, albeit in AAA.It just seems like he needed to go anywhere Jeff Albert wasn’t coaching. (And I say this as someone who is more than willing to praise Mr. Albert as a “player developer.” He just isn’t the guy I want as primary coach with my major league hitters on a day-to-day basis.)
Packy Naughton might be a legit major league reliever. He is NOT an MLB starter.
Ditto for Andre Pallante, whom Marmol has penciled in for Friday’s start.Whatever else happens, the Boy Wonder manager is 100% to blame for this nonsense he has created, this innings crunch, by placing Jake Woodford into some sort of permanent doghouse for God knows what obscure reason, and repeatedly giving starts to pitchers who can reasonably be expected to give 3-4 innings at most. It started with Jordan Hicks in early April, and now it idiotically continues with Naughton & Pallante. When it comes to managing innings workloads, Marmol is perhaps the stupidest manager I have ever seen, in any organization.
Thanks for the kind words, Willie and Lee.
The greatest achievement of the front office over the winter was to NOT saddle the team with some massive, wasteful, counterproductive free agent signing. This was honestly a substantial accomplishment, given the clamoring in many quarters for guys like Schwarber & Castellanos (so far they’ve combined for the same WAR as Paul DeJong: 0.2), as well as numerous disappointing free agent shortstops.
If Marmol would just cut out the B.S. with Woodford, and deploy his relievers in a reasonable fashion, the pitching staff should be fine going forward. (Two years of VerHagen in mop-up duty wouldn’t actually be so awful; it’s games like last night that kill you, when VerHagen is given profound responsibilities by Marmol that don’t match his skill/experience.) Is McFarland still on the team? If so, why? Because he had a fluky couple of months last year?
Also, in Jeff Albert-related news, Matt Carpenter is now killing the ball for the Yankees after killing the ball in AAA. Small samples, of course. But wouldn’t it have been nice if even over a small sample he had been something other than terrible for the Cards over the past several seasons?
“We only have two or three guys in the bullpen that you really trust.”
The Boy Wonder has given more innings to both Wittgren and McFarland than to Jake Woodford. It doesn’t matter how good anybody is, how trustworthy anyone has established himself to be, if the manager is simply too stupid to realize it, too blind to see what’s in front of his face.
On the bright side, Hader just coughed up TWO homers in the 9th inning, and the Brewers got beat by the Phils.
McFarland was the only worse choice than VerHagen in that incredibly high-leverage situation. Marmol is a clown.
The thing to do: if you don’t score in the 10th, then you pull Helsley. Because the leverage is only moderately high. But after scoring the run, you stick with one of your very best relievers — you do not experiment with VerHagen. Because now the leverage is as high as it gets. And it’s June. Experiment time is over.
Nervy but satisfying sweep. Against the Mets, Friars, Frisco, Brewers, and Blue Jays, the Cards have narrowly outscored their opponents 123-118.
Those five opponents are 139-83 versus non-Cardinal opposition (.626 winning percentage), and 13-14 versus the Birds. So this would certainly seem to be the Redbird peer group. I’ll take it.
Nice to see Masyn Blaze Winn off to a real good start at Double-A. Hasn’t missed a beat since leaving Peoria and joining Jordan Walker in Springfield.
And speaking of that prospect pair, I did a little research. They are not only the two youngest position players in all of AA, they are also the two youngest players relative to their league in all of the minors at any level of competition. (Brewer teen phenom Jackson Chourio is closest, as he turned 18 on March 11 and is currently in Low-A, so he’s 10 days older than Masyn, compared to their leagues.)
