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“In the month of June (79 PA) Malcolm Nunez has a 1.132 OPS and 6HR. After a beyond awful April and May, he’s raised his season line to .256/.379/.441 for an .820 OPS with 9HR’s.”
Thanks for providing the numbers, ChiTown. I knew he’d heated up, but didn’t realize how hot Nunez had gotten — or how low he’d sunk prior to that. He’s only a year older than Walker & Winn, the two youngest position players in all of Double-A last time I looked.
Nunez is too thick for any position other than DH or 1st base, but if he can maintain most of this superior patience at the plate (16% walk rate this year) and pop, say 20-22 homers per year, then he becomes a via MLB designated hitter along the lines of Yepez. But less slugging/batting average and more walks than Juan. At the very least, Nunez is certainly more of a viable trade sweetener than he was a month ago.
In other news, Alec Burleson with three more hits today including longball #15. (And don’t tell anyone, but he’s even drawing walks now. After just two free passes in 129 AB’s [May 11 – June 17], Burly has walked 8 times in his last 8 games.) It must be noted, though, that when Alec was walk-free, he was actually raising his OPS from .867 to .938! So indications are that he WAS making the right swing decisions, and/or excellent contact. He was just impatient/aggressive in a way that couldn’t work long-term. Certainly not at the MLB level.
Man, with a 5-run lead and lots of innings to go, it sure would’ve been nice to have a swingman to put in the game. Ya know, an established major league pitcher who could boringly eat 4 or 5 innings and allow a couple of runs.
Maybe someone who had a sub-3.00 major league ERA over his last 50 innings and had a history of performing well in MLB long relief….I’ll relent as soon as the Woodford weirdness ends. Or at least is honestly explained by someone. I hate you, Marmol.
Man, the cubs bring out the very worst in this team.
Been like this since the start of last year. When not playing each other over the past season and a half, the Cards are 24 games over .500 and the cubs are 36 games under .500. Head-to-head it’s almost a dead heat: Cards 14 wins, cubs 12. Every game is like a root canal; best you can say is you’re relieved when it’s over.
“But they ask for more out of the other 2 because they have nobody else that is trusted. They’ve got to put trust in someone or find someone else they can trust.”
Exactly, 667. If only there were a relief pitcher on the Redbird roster who had thrown nearly 50 innings since last Sept. 1st with a sub-3.00 ERA who was available. Boy, wouldn’t any manager love to have a guy like that to buttress their bullpen? I mean, with that many innings and that stellar ERA, a manager would have to be bananas NOT to trust him.
Constitutional amendment suggestion: any time a team has men on second and third and nobody out and fails to score, the hitting coach and manager are each automatically fined $5,000.
I think I can get bi-partisan support on this one.
“It’s starting to look like Cy Hendricks again tonight.”
No kidding. Rinse & repeat. Career ERA by opponent:
Cincy 4.47
Pitt. 3.79
Milw. 3.54
Cards 2.82 (and a 12-3 record)They’ve had, what, 6 or 7 years to figure out some kind of way to hit his soft-tossing crap. And nothing.
“Just here to say…I love Bob Reed.”
Always nice when one of my parents chimes in. Thanks for the kind words.
“Because Memphis lacks a full complement of starters, pulled into the rotation are Naughton, Aaron Brooks and Tommy Parsons. The Memphis cupboard is thinly stocked.
As they say, you can never have enough quality pitching – as we are seeing again in 2022. This has to be a focus for the Cards at the deadline.”It sure seems at a glance, that pitching must be a trade deadline focus. But how urgent is it, really?
No matter what is happening in Memphis, maximizing the MLB wins always takes precedent. And therefore Packy Naughton should be in the MLB bullpen — where, in his brief time there he’s been amazingly effective with that 0.77 ERA. And since Sept. 1 of last year, Jake Woodford has thrown nearly 50 MLB innings with a 2.84 ERA. So regardless of what his slider can or cannot do, he obviously should be in the majors. And then, Jordan Hicks is returning soon.
Ideal bullpen: Helsley, Gallegos, Cabrera, Woodford, Naughton, Wittgren, and one or two from among Hicks, Liberatore, Oviedo, Pallante, and Zack Thompson. VerHagen’s ERA and FIP are both over 6.00; get him out of there. Wittgren can pitch back-to-back days, has a strong history, and has an FIP barely over 4.00, so may have been a bit unlucky with his higher ERA. He’s a keep.
You see, I’m not even 100% sure that the roster needs anybody else — if the manager/GM do their jobs correctly. I’m really not. It just needs the best pitchers to be used in the majors, at their best MLB roles. Prior to this year, it almost always happened. The sole glaring exception was back in 2018 when Mo wouldn’t call up AAA dominators Dakota Hudson and Daniel Poncedeleon in May, or even June, despite horrible MLB bullpen struggles. But even that was subtly different, because those guys hadn’t shown any evidence they could get major leaguers out. Not like Packy & Jake have.
“Would the Orioles trade Jorge Lopez for Woodford 1-1? He was used as a starter quite a bit in the past, but seems to have put it all together as a full time reliever. He’s also controlled through 2024 (2.5 years remaining). 0.77 ERA/2.36 FIP, over a K per nine, and a .829 WHIP. Woodford is controlled through 2026 for comparison.”
I like your thinking, ChiTown. But Baltimore has the leverage, so I suspect they’d want more than Woodford. Might have to sweeten with a McGreevy or Tink Hence or at the very least Paniagua. (I’d want to keep Hence, but the others would be in play for me. Not that I want Woodford gone — but the Birds would be doing him a favor, compared to what we’ve witnessed over the past several months.)
Packy Naughton in the majors, 2021/22:
8 starts 8.51 ERA, .945 OPS allowed
8 relief 0.77 ERA, .508 OPS
And he’s been excellent out of the Memphis bullpen this year, with a 2.04 ERA over 17.2 IP. (Roughly 2.40 FIP.) So. This is not difficult. It is Managing 101. Some guys are good relievers but bad starters. It happens all the bleeping time. Failed starters like Packy Naughton become good relievers every single day — some of them even become great relievers. Naughton should be rounding out the MLB bullpen, right now. Why is it such an excruciating struggle for Marmol to figure this stuff out?
Or Mozeliak suddenly became an idiot. Now, after 14 years as GM, with his 4th manager, he insists on the Pujols stupidity, and the Woodford nonsense, and the Naughton idiocy. Now, after nearly a decade and a half, Mo is confused and doesn’t know which pitchers should be in the majors and which should not. Or who should start and who should relieve. Or which hitters are good versus lefties and which against righties. Maybe someone dropped Mo on his head over the winter.
But I doubt it.
“I agree he’s been screwed 6 ways to Sunday by management but this is likely insurance if any else happens.”
Marmol has used 11 different starting pitchers this year. If there was any chance he’d give Woodford an opportunity, we’d have seen it long ago. All the other Cardinal pitchers in Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors would have to run away and join the circus for Woodford to get a shot.
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And the funny thing is, with the advantage of hindsight, this actually started in Spring Training. When the “competition” for Flaherty’s open rotation spot was announced (VerHagen, Brooks, Hicks, and Woodford were the semi-official declared contestants), Woodford immediately got off to an excellent start, permitting just one run in his first six innings.
But after that, for no announced reason, Marmol put him exclusively into “back fields games” rather than the regular, observable tilts. In those unofficial games, Woodford was also extremely effective, allowing just one more run, or maybe none, over 6 or 7 more innings I believe. (I paid pretty close attention to the back field game reports in the Post-Dispatch, as the battle for 5th starter seemed fairly important. Which was why I thought it odd at the time, that Woodford would be selected to NOT pitch in real games.)
Of course, in retrospect there was no actual battle at all, and I’d bet everything I own and all I can borrow that Marmol kept Woodford’s last two Spring Training pitching performances out of sight to avoid any scrutiny/criticism of his rotation choice. “Hey, Mr. Marmol, every other rotation candidate has been terrible this spring and Woodford’s been great. And he was great last September, in a pennant race, as a starter. So why isn’t he taking Flaherty’s spot?” The selection of Hicks, illogical as it was from the beginning, received zero meaningful scrutiny from the press — and certainly there was no mention of the weird Woodford treatment.
“I don’t know what Winn will become someday. No one here does. But one should not assume he cannot surpass Edman in value once he fully develops.”
He won’t match Tommy in the non-hitting contributions. I apologize, Brian, if I was fuzzy in my writing. Strictly the non-hitting stuff: defense + baserunning.
The thing is, at those facets of the game Edman is beyond mere 99th percentile. He’s 99.something percentile. Tommy made his MLB debut on June 8, 2019. Since the start of the 2019 season (and averaging the defensive values of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference), here are the top 7 non-catchers for defense + baserunning:
1) Trevor Story +65 runs
2) Javy Baez +58
3) Tommy Edman +56
4) Kevin Kiermaier +54
5) Nick Ahmed +48
6) Francisco Lindor +45
7) Nicky Lopez +40I expect Masyn Winn to be really, really, really good. Obviously I must, or I wouldn’t have ranked him baseball’s #7 overall prospect a couple weeks ago at this site. But he won’t be one of the top 5 players in all of baseball at the non-hitting stuff. I mean, he might. But of course that’s an extreme longshot for anyone, regardless of immense talent & work ethic.
The other thing, about Winn and wear ‘n tear, I was thinking more that middle infielders can’t self-actualize as batters in the same way that outfielders can. At least that’s kinda the way it appears to me. For instance, I don’t think Mookie Betts would have a career 134 OPS+ if he’d remained a middle infielder. (I could absolutely be wrong about that; it’s my gut talking. Rogers Hornsby wasn’t too bothered by playing 2nd base, I guess.;))
In any case, there are numerous “moving parts” to this calculation. Does Masyn love, love, LOVE shortstop? If so, maybe leave him there and figure out something with Edman and Gorman. Or perhaps Winn is not that wedded to middle infield and would embrace the Mookie Transition to the outfield — and thrive at it. No better use for his speed. We just don’t know yet how his instincts (or Jordan Walker’s) will be in the outfield.
“But it doesn’t have to be a direct competition. With the right combination of other players on the roster, the two could co-exist one day.”
I could not have said it better myself.
Incredibly, this team has already lost twice this year after the opponent was literally down to their final strike. Will Cabrera make it a trifecta? (This specific kind of longshot loss probably happens maybe 3 or 4 times a decade. And it’s three this year, before July, if this game is lost.)
“Who says no in a Carlson for Zac Gallen swap? Gallen has 3.5 years of control left and Carlson 4.5”
If Dylan gets back to hitting like the 2nd half of last year (128 OPS+) then it’s a fair deal all around. (In fact, he’s hitting almost exactly that well since mercifully being removed from the unfamiliar and uncomfortable leadoff spot this year — roughly 124 OPS+.) Gallen is really good, but with a somewhat shaky health history. Given the Cardinal roster composition, the trade makes sense from the Birds’ perspective. Don’t know about Arizona, though. Two-thirds of their outfield is set forever with Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll. Not sure if they’d want to give up a top starter to fill the third outfield slot.
“GC and BCCran, they are obviously going to need an experienced starter next year and I don’t see them spending the big bucks in free agency, so a trade is the likeliest outcome.”
Agreed 100%, unless Pallante is already really real as a 3/4 MLB starter (highly unlikely) and one other current prospect also solidifies himself as an MLB rotation piece by season’s end. (Liberatore, Connor Thomas, Jake Wo–never mind.)
“Edman has a career 104 wRC+, so barely above average. He’s probably not as good a defender or as speedy as Winn….”
I love what Masyn Winn has done, this year AND last year, but he won’t contribute as much as Tommy in the non-hitting categories. It’s almost impossible. Specifically, Tommy has provided more baserunning value than anyone in the majors since the start of the 2019 season, per Fangraphs. And he didn’t even play the whole 2019 season in the majors! And his defense has been somewhere between distinctly above average and outstanding, depending which public source is checked. Overall, defense + baserunning, among non-catchers Tommy is I believe 4th or 5th in all of MLB since the start of 2019 — and again, he didn’t even play a full 2019 season.
That said, I also think Masyn Winn might stay healthier if switched to the outfield. Less wear/tear, right? And his speed really would get more use in center field than anywhere else. Sooo, if he has Mookie Betts/Alex Gordon outfield instincts, then maybe he oughta be shifted out there — depends in part on what the minor league coaching staffs see. Tommy Edman meanwhile certainly feels like exactly the kind of guy who’ll sign a relatively modest long-term deal, with multiple club options, that takes him through 2 or 3 free agent years. (He knows as well as anyone, his type of player doesn’t get rich via the arbitration process.)
“Walker hasn’t seen any time in the OF yet, but I agree they probably need to start exploring the idea sooner rather than later, unless they just don’t think he can do it, then he’s going to be limited to DH for awhile.”
Absolutely, his place is the outfield long-term. A faster, better-fielding Matt Holliday is his upside. His solid speed would be wasted at first base, and DH is silly — his height/reach/range would also be squandered under that premise. The DH spot should belong to Juan Yepez, from 2023-2026 at least. He hits rights and lefts and can’t play the field.
“Burleson is a DH, Walker may be a DH, Gorman is not an elite glove, and neither is Donovan.”
There’s two websites that quantify minor league defensive value (Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport) and if we average them together we should get a reasonable estimate of each player’s glovework to this point in their careers. Alec Burleson grades out at -3 runs per 150 games. So, just slightly below average. Good enough if he doesn’t get any plumper, and if he really hits. Jordan Walker was covered above. (There’s zero chance Jordan remains at the hot corner. If Arenado leaves for any reason, Gorman would take over there.)
Gorman’s defense — again, averaging the only two public graders — has been excellent for his career, and dandy at the keystone. At a glance he doesn’t look it, but that’s what the numbers say. Per 150 games, Nolan has been 12 runs better than Brendan Donovan per Clay Davenport, and a whopping 18 runs better per Prospectus. That’s good enough for me to keep him at second base until further notice, and keep Donovan a supersub who takes great at-bats while mostly filling in where he does the least harm with his glove.
“Gorman will have to be platooned unless something drastic happens.”
As we’ve found out to our dismay during the year of “Marmol plays Pujols 2 X too much,” the Cards don’t face a lot of lefties. Gorman could start 135-140 games next year and only face 6 or 8 southpaw starters. So I wouldn’t fret too much about that. And anyway, he’s still young enough to be improving versus lefties (.700 OPS against them for Memphis this year), so maybe you let him face lesser lefties going forward. The one thing you absolutely do not do, though, is what Marmol did tonight. Big game, you do everything you reasonably can to win against your only current division rival. You don’t try to “develop” Gorman during this game. Not this game. Tonight counts double.
Oviedo. Oviedo in to protect a 1-run lead in the 7th inning. I hate this manager. I actually am reduced to hatred. But hey, anybody but Woodford. That’s the managerial mantra.
The idea that the 9th place hitter is a “second leadoff man” is a misdirection, a vile rhetorical trick. The 9th place hitter is the exact opposite of a leadoff man. We know this is true because that’s why pitchers hit 9th, back in the olde days. Because the 9th place slot is where your absolute worst hitter belongs. And 2nd-worst hits 8th.
Bader should never hit lower than 6th against a lefty, with the current Cardinal roster. And he could/should probably hit 1st or 2nd against most lefties. Versus a lefty he should never hit below any of our catchers, or Sosa, Yepez, Donovan, Gorman, and probably one or two others who don’t immediately spring to mind. Harrison has been in the majors since 2017. We know what he can and can’t do. But apparently Ollie Marmol only believes in the things he sees first-hand. Like a two-year-old.
Gorman’s OPS versus lefties over the past two years in AA/AAA is awful, roughly .600
Bader’s major league career OPS v. LHP is .803
So if anyone was wondering why Gorman is playing tonight, or why Mr. Matchup Metrics Marmol persists in batting Bader at the bottom of the order against lefties…I have no idea.
Burleson should probably be around #80 or so, but it’s not crazy to omit him. He doesn’t offer defensive or baserunning value, and his low walk rate is a tiny red flag. Also, he might be a platoon outfielder and some evaluators take a grim view of that. He has a 1.032 OPS against righties this year but just .719 v. southpaws. Last year it was .821 and .669.
Smart organizations exploit such players, while others lose out by fixating on the hole and not the doughnut. Still others ignore the splits to their own detriment, hoping without logic that the player simply changes. You know, like Pujols hitting against righties this year. Ugh.
Whoa. A Joe Cronin managerial reference! Well done, BikeMike. As an Illini, though, I wish you’d mentioned player/manager Lou Boudreau.
I’ve attacked Marmol for his innumerable managerial missteps, but one large thing you can say in his favor, thus far he is definitely NOT burning out his best relievers (unlike last year under Marmol’s immediate predecessor).
Cabrera is on pace for 56 games and 69 innings. Absolutely nothing wrong with that combo. And Helsey & Gallegos are each on target for just 58 innings with only 49 and 56 appearances, respectively. Quite responsible totals. Almost too low, in fact! Now Marmol/Mozeliak have to jettison the bullpen dead weight — and maybe bring in the guy who threw 12 shutout innings against the Brewers last year. He might come in handy. 😉
Masyn Winn: strong-armed shortstop who steals bases without getting caught, and leads ALL under-21 minor leaguers right now with 31 extra base hits (tied with Elly De La Cruz), while hitting for an excellent average across High-A and Double-A after just turning 20 years old a few weeks before Opening Day. Pro-rating his 2022 numbers to 150 games, Winn would bat .315 with 51 doubles, 19 triples, 13 homers, and steal 43-for-46 bases. Nobody reading this needs me to tell them that is a GREAT prospect at any position, much less shortstop.
That’s the profile of a top 10 overall prospect, perhaps top five. Not #98 (or #106, as Fangraphs just ranked him last week). It’s inadvertently hilarious in a way, this bizarre under-ranking for young Mr. Winn. Because on the day he was drafted in 2020, it was universally written by the folks like Fangraphs and Baseball America and everyone else, that Masyn Winn might be the single most toolsy, most talented player in the entire draft.
Ahhh, but now, when the unbelievably toolsy Winn is performing spectacularly well on the field, it suddenly doesn’t matter that he’s so darn talented I guess. He just can’t be rated more than borderline meaningful — and miles away from elite. I would ask those who rank him around #100, exactly what Masyn would need to do to be ranked among the very elite prospects. Because whatever it is, he’s already doing it.
Masyn Winn is showing speed, power, patience, better-than-average contact, all while very young. This is an extremely unusual combo, very exciting. More specifically, Winn is trying to be the first minor leaguer young for his level to have an elite 7.0 speed score plus an isolated slugging of .200+, plus a strikeout rate under 20% and walk rate of 10% since Carlos Correa back in 2015. (Winn has one walk too few and two whiffs too many right now. That’s how close he is.) Prior to Correa was Mookie Betts in 2013. Before him was a guy named Trout in 2011. You get the idea.
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Yes, Winn could fail to develop because ANY prospect could. But there are no red flags here, and plenty of positives. If you want to know where Winn really belongs on prospect lists, just do the objective thing and compare him side-by-side with other top 100 shortstops — particularly the top 25-30 types. You’ll see that other than Gunnar Henderson and perhaps Ezequiel Tovar, Winn has the edge on all of them.
Graceffo should probably be 10-20 spots higher, but that’s a quibble. He’s fully two years older than Winn and plying his trade at the same levels this year, so it makes for a mildly interesting comparison.
“Well Bob I always try to be somewhat nice. For me to say he stinks, we would have to be down behind the Pirates.”
It’s true I’m pretty un-nice, Willie, at least when considering people in public jobs who make 7-figure salaries. With them I tend to be merciless, if I feel strongly that they do not deserve to keep those jobs, or get them in the first place. Jobs that carry huge money & prestige should not go to the dolts of the world, whether in politics, sports or elsewhere. I admit I’m fairly fanatical about sports being as close as it gets to a true meritocracy in this life. (It’s one of the reasons I can’t stomach the steroid cheats, in baseball, bike racing, or anywhere else.) When I see anti-meritocracy it galls me.
I’ll say this, though. If I felt that ANY other individual or organization on the internet or off it was giving Marmol the scrutiny/criticism he deserves this season, I would be much less inclined to take such a belligerent tone toward the Boy Manager. Either his youth or race or inexperience or something else has insulated him from even cursory analysis.
Even the moronic use of Pujols against righties has gotten no Post-Dispatch attention whatsoever that I’ve seen — but then, the P-D’s blunt and rigorous coverage of everything sporting has evaporated since the deaths of Strauss and Burwell, may they rest in peace. Ollie has been about as smart as a sack of doorknobs and nobody with a magaphone wants to mention it. Well that’s their prerogative — and mine is to be nasty (but not profane).
“The only gain there is you more likely stay out of a double play but you got to know you are going to make it.”
Yup, you’ve got to know you’ll make it unless you slip on a banana peel. Heck, Goldy even waved him back toward first base. And speaking of first base, the 1B coach fell down in his duties if he didn’t remind Brendan how utterly unimportant his own run was. (Clapp, right? After all the nice things I said about him. Sigh.) Even if it had only been the 8th inning, it’s still a real bad play in my opinion. Seventh inning, grey area. Sixth or earlier, fine.
On the bright side, maybe just maybe there are some microscopic indications that Johan Oviedo won’t be 100% useless if converted to full-time bullpen work. Maybe? But even if that occurs, I’ll always wonder what would’ve happened with him — and especially Hicks — if they’d just been allowed to take an ordinary boring normal responsible development path as starting pitchers. Double sigh.
“Risky by Donovan there, it’s close. I don’t like running there. If we were down by one, maybe but shouldn’t have went.”
Exactly correct. His run is meaningless, so zero chances should be taken there. Just braindead baserunning. The team kangaroo court should fine him 1,000 bucks, if the union still allows such things.
Tied or down by one run, absolutely you take the chance because your run is incredibly valuable. But not down by multiple runs. No way. Man, I wanted to see Pujols bat there. Thanks for nothing, Donovan. (And yeah, he was safe. By about half an inch. Doesn’t matter, except it gives me just one more reason to despise replay.)
Not Graceffo, no way. No Jordan Hicks Treatment for him, please for the love of all that’s holy. Throwing 101 out of the bullpen, over and over, is the surest path to injury and a busted career. But now that this has been suggested, I would not be one bit surprised if Marmol does this eventually. After all, he’s the one who said in Spring Training that if Jordan Hicks is throwing 103 MPH in April, then “Let it eat.” It’s the kind of thing that idiots say.
Liberatore or some other experienced AAA arm should’ve supplanted McFarland weeks ago. In fact, Liberatore should have never left the majors after his first excellent MLB pitching performance. Either he should have entered the rotation in place of Pallante, with Andre switching to high-leverage long relief, or Libby should’ve been deployed via the Earl Weaver Young Pitcher Template, and used for multi-inning relief himself.
That McFarland has lasted this long on the roster when you’re in a division dogfight is a discredit to the organization. Blame whomever you choose, but it’s a black mark.
But I don’t think he’s average, Willie. Therein lies the problem. I think he stinks. For a whole lot of reasons.
And the other thing, re Clapp v Marmol. It feels anti-meritocracy in a pretty big way. The guy who’s been around longer and achieved a championship as a manager at a considerably higher level (more than once) gets simply skipped over. And the thing of it is, the Birds have organizationally always sorta bragged about promoting from within, about guys earning and getting a chance — with players and coaches and executives alike. And this time, well, they did NOT do that. Marmol and his relatively flimsy resume went straight to the top.
The way I saw it at the time of the hire, Forschy, and the way I still do, is that Stubby Clapp was the far more logical choice if the club was staying in house.
Ollie Marmol neither managed nor played above A-Ball, while Clapp recently won back-to-back AAA championships, following a playing career that reached the majors. Moreover, Clapp is in his late 40’s and Marmol is in his mid-30’s, so if life experience counts for anything (and it should count for something in my opinion) the advantage there goes to Clapp as well.
If Marmol was considered the more cerebral/analytical of the two, then I would say the Redbird front office sorely over-estimated him. Because Marmol has repeatedly gone against what was sensible/logical/mathematical in his roster choices, lineups, and in-game tactics.
I give Marmol full marks for seeing something in Andre Pallante that I did not believe was there. But beyond that, I’ve seen an ocean of gaffes by the first-year skipper. And I think that with the bottom three of the division being so terrible, and the rookie trio of Donovan, Gorman, and Yepez combining to be so productive (collective OPS around 135!), an average MLB manager would have this team 40-28 or 41-27 right now.
