[Card4Ever]

Kind of hoping rumors are true about Murphy and Braves. I would like Murphy in a Cards uniform, but if price is huge, maybe Contreras (The Younger) or d’Arnaud would be a wiser play.

Sorry, but Kirk scares me. 3 inches shorter and 40 pounds heavier than Yadi? Not good for someone who squats half the game.

[Card4Ever]

Whelp, now looking at the new link, my idea was wrong, lol/

[Card4Ever]

Probably got things out of order by one spot, moving 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc and 1 ended up being 30 until someone caught the mistake.

[Card4Ever]

MLB.com, ESPN, MLTR and others always putting out stories of these 3 or 4 teams interested in Player X. It almost never seems that the Cardinals are mentioned as an interested team on any player other than a catcher.

It would seem to my that these “interested” team names are leaked by the agents and not the teams.

Are they really not interested? Does Mo tell agents that if they mention St. Louis the interest will dry up?

[Card4Ever]

Wainwright was fine until September. Still very low 3.09 era until then. September was another story with the ‘dead arm’. I think he will be fine next year, as long as the give him a spot start off. Hell, if nothing else, he could go out like he came in, as a reliever. Max Scherzer had a dead arm the end of the year before and was great this year. I know he is younger, but still old.

[Card4Ever]

Deal with Miami for Lopez, (high prospect cost), or buy low on Trevor Rogers?

[Card4Ever]

From Scoops with Danny Mac,

Bernie: Could The Cardinals’ Next Catcher Come From Toronto? My Look At Alejandro Kirk And Danny Jansen.

Defense: Outstanding. Kirk caught a career-high 654 innings in 2022, and his 9 defensive runs saved were tied with Molina for 6th in the majors. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 3rd among MLB catchers with 12 Fielding Runs Above Average. And Kirk was 5th in the majors in pitch-framing, 6th in pitch blocking and 5th in throwing. His caught-stealing rate was slightly above league average at 27 percent; with his slightly above pop time and strong arm, Kirk’s throw-out rate was more of reflection on Toronto’s pitchers.

[Card4Ever]

Free Agent Catchers

Willson Contreras
Pros
Dude can hit amazingly well for a catcher.
Only 28.

Cons
Will probably get 4-5 years at close to 20 mil per.
Fielding in mediocre other than his arm. Saw in a MLB Trade Rumors chat that if his fielding drops more, he can play a passable corner outfield. Do you really want to pay him ~20 mil for 5 years to end up in the outfield?

Christian Vazquez
Pros
Winning pedigree in 2 spots.

Cons
Already 32.
No GG or AS appearances
May not be worth the salary he will probably get.
One year over 9 homers, of 23 in 2019 in a hitters park.

Others (Barnhardt/Narvaez): Only if cheap and spend big on a starter or SS and not really sure any are that much of an upgrade.

Catchers via trade

Sean Murphy

Pros
Free agency 2026
2020 ROY
2021 Gold Glove

Cons
Prospect cost
Older than Kirk, already 28

Alejandro Kirk –
Pros
Young – Just turned 24
Free agency 2027
Silver Slugger/ All Star

Cons
Costly in prospects
5’8″ 265 for a player who squats 9 innings a game, yikes!
Over 40% of games at DH, (Due to wealth of catchers or weight issue?)

Danny Jansen
Pros
Decent hitter
Good defensively

Cons
Free agency 2025
Not the huge offensive upgrade many want.

[Card4Ever]

This thread got me going through Baseball Reference WAR stats. One I never figured, even though I was a kid. Higher than just about anyone above and a WHOLE lot of Hall of Famers.

Sal Bando

Career 61.5 WAR.
Hall of Fame 0.7% in only year on the ballot.

1967 1.2
1968 3.3
1969 8.3 AS,MVP-16
1970 6.2 MVP-27
1971 6.4 MVP-2
1972 5.6 AS,MVP-30
1973 6.5 AS,MVP-4
1974 4.9 AS,MVP-3
1975 3.7
1976 5.8 MVP-13
1977 3.6
1978 5.7
1979 0.7
1980 -0.7
1981 0.1

[Card4Ever]

Good call on Vada Pinson. Career WAR 8 points higher that Murphy. Not sure why he doesn’t get more credit.

(And 15.5 higher WAR than Baines.)

[Card4Ever]

Dale Murphy had one of the oddest careers ever. WAR totals, 4 years terrible (-0.8 WAR), 9 years very good to AMAZING (45.5 WAR), 6 years terrible (1.8 WAR).

1976 20 -0.1
1977 21 -0.4
1978 22 -0.6
1979 23 0.3
1980 24 6.6 AS,MVP-12
1981 25 1.7
1982 26 6.1 AS,MVP-1,GG,SS
1983 27 7.1 AS,MVP-1,GG,SS
1984 28 5.5 AS,MVP-9,GG,SS
1985 29 5 AS,MVP-7,GG,SS
1986 30 2.6 AS,MVP-21,GG
1987 31 7.7 AS,MVP-11
1988 32 3.1
1989 33 1.6
1990 34 1
1990 34 0
1991 35 0.8
1992 36 -0.7
1993 37 -0.9
18 Seasons 46.5

[Card4Ever]

And Expos at Parc Jarry in between Houston and NY

[Card4Ever]

You mean Le Grand Orange?

[Card4Ever]

Can we not afford to pay Judge 10/400M?

Not sure I’d go 10/400, but they certainly go 8/340 and force themselves to be outbid.

A man can dream….

[Card4Ever]

Bad contract swap from Baseball Trade Values

Not a huge fan of Baseball Trade Values some really stupid combinations work due purely to contract $$$. Even if neither team is up against the luxury tax.

That said, they have some that are interesting. Dump cash for another bad contract (gaining 9 mil) and a top 100 prospect?

Matz: 35 million over next 3 years
DeJong: 9.1 mil plus 2 mil buyout, 11.1 mil total.

46.1 mil total

Madison Baumgartener 23 mil & 14 mil
Blake Walston 21 year old LHP top 100 prospect
37 million total

[Card4Ever]

MLB Trade Rumors doing team specific chats. done Pirates and Cubs so far.

From chat earlier today

Yeah we’re divvying them up based on which team’s offseason outlooks we’re responsible for. I’ll make up Cincinnati, Colorado and Arizona at some point and do the others in conjunction with the rest of the outlooks as they drop
Cardinals in the next day or two probably

[Card4Ever]

Is there an actual prospect you would trade for anyone? If you could get a true #1 starter, would you say NO to trading Walker?

Basically, what would it take to give up the following?

Walker
Winn
Gorman

[Card4Ever]

2023 free agents

Odd they have Nolan as a possible opt out FA, but not Correa.

Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros ($25 million player option) Age: 39 | 2022 Salary: $25,000,000 | Market Value: $41,753,632

2 years high value.

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $19,000,000 | Market Value: $37,961,027

A man can dream.

Trea Turner, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 29 | 2022 Salary: $21,000,000 | Market Value: $33,616,679

Again, a man can dream. (Same for Correa.)

Carlos Rodon, SP, San Francisco Giants ($22.5 million player option) Age: 29 | 2022 Salary: $21,500,000 | Market Value: $31,642,069

Too injury prone?

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 34 | 2022 Salary: $17,300,000 | Market Value: $31,314,740

A Dodger forever.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals ($35 million player option) Age: 31 | 2022 Salary: $35,000,000 | Market Value: $28,550,806

Might have to pony up a few more $$$.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, New York Yankees ($16 million player option) Age: 33 | 2022 Salary: $16,000,000 | Market Value: $23,000,081

Would be an expensive DH/Fill in 1B

Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves Age: 28 | 2022 Salary: $10,000,000 | Market Value: $22,238,210

I would like this.

Chris Bassitt, SP, New York Mets ($19 million mutual option) Age: 33 | 2022 Salary: $8,650,000 | Market Value: $20,889,818

2nd pick for a starter after Verlander.

Josh Bell, 1B, San Diego Padres Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $10,000,000 | Market Value: $18,440,912

Nope

Trey Mancini, 1B, Houston Astros ($10 million mutual option) Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $7,500,000 | Market Value: $18,117,905

Nope

Andrew Benintendi, OF, New York Yankees Age: 28 | 2022 Salary: $8,500,000 | Market Value: $17,397,505

Nope

Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Boston Red Sox Age: 32 | 2022 Salary: $17,000,000 | Market Value: $16,733,880

Nope

Edwin Diaz, RP, New York Mets Age: 28 | 2022 Salary: $10,200,000 | Market Value: $16,121,033

Nope, not a huge upgrade.

Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants Age: 34 | 2022 Salary: $18,400,000 | Market Value: $16,090,407

No fit

Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $9,625,000 | Market Value: $16,066,514

Would prefer Murphy in a trade or keep Knizner and make a bigger splash.

Noah Syndergaard, SP, Philadelphia Phillies Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $21,000,000 | Market Value: $15,287,228

Only if cheap 1/2 year bounce back sort of deal.

J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Boston Red Sox Age: 35 | 2022 Salary: $19,350,000 | Market Value: $15,199,843

DH only. Too many $$$ for what he does now.

Yuli Gurriel, 1B, Houston Astros Age: 38 | 2022 Salary: $8,000,000 | Market Value: $15,167,241

Not a fit.

Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres ($8.3 million player option) Age: 29 | 2022 Salary: $6,500,000 | Market Value: $14,909,248

No! Remember when he was the next big thing?

Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $6,000,000 | Market Value: $14,684,536

A cheap 3/4 OF.

Mitch Haniger, OF, Seattle Mariners Age: 31 | 2022 Salary: $7,750,000 | Market Value: $14,669,293

Maybe, depends on price.

Jameson Taillon, SP, New York Yankees Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $5,800,000 | Market Value: $14,596,995

Not really an upgrade. Need a 1 or at least a 2.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets Age: 29 | 2022 Salary: $7,000,000 | Market Value: $14,111,751

LH hitter, 5.0 WAR, nice choice for right price.

Kenley Jansen, RP, Atlanta Braves Age: 35 | 2022 Salary: $16,000,000 | Market Value: $13,884,487

Too many $$$

Taijuan Walker, SP, New York Mets ($6 million player option) Age: 30 | 2022 Salary: $7,000,000 | Market Value: $13,828,802

Again, not really an upgrade.

[Card4Ever]

Not saying the Rangers would necessarily trade Heim, but they have a top 100 catching prospect who debuted in the majors this year.

[Card4Ever]

Jonah Heim Texas Rangers

Pros
Switch hitter
Good dWAR
Good oWAR
Got some pop, 14 HR so far this year, 10 last year in 82 games.

Questions
First full year, so is 102 OPS+ sustainable?

Not sure what the price would be. Trade Values has him with a value of 15 for whatever that is worth.

[Card4Ever]

Admittedly, I think the entire trade values thing is rather silly, (but fun). If a team isn’t REALLY close to the arbitrary cap, (luxury tax), it makes no sense. Before the season baseball Trade Values had a trade that “worked out”, Goldschmidt, Arenado and a pre-injury Flaherty PLUS about 5 million in cash for Aroldis Chapman. Seriously would anyone actually make that trade?

It is a good argument starter, lol. A couple trades proposed in the past couple days. Would you do either?

Angels Get

Alec Burleson – 19.4
Jack Flaherty – 3.1
Nolan Gorman – 45.9
Michael McGreevey – 5.1

Cardinals Get

Shohei Ohtani – 72.2

===========================

Cardinals Get

Shohei Ohtani – 72.2
Mike Trout – 22.4

Angels Get

Alec Burleson – 19.4
Dylan Carlson – 50.1
Dakota Hudson – 7.2
Matthew Liberatore – 13.5
Jake Woodford – 2.3
Juan Yepez – 3

===========================

[Card4Ever]

NL Central Outfielder WAR

WOW the Reds are bad…… And can you imagine the sCrUBS if the had a 3rd outfielder?

Cardinals
1.8
1.7
1.1
0.7
—
5.3

Brewers
2.6
2.0
1.7
—
6.3

Cubs
3.9
1.5
-0.1
—-
5.3

Reds
1.1
0.4
-0.8
—
0.7

Pirates
2.1
0.0
0.1
—
2.2

[Card4Ever]

Just saying there aren’t very many that land in the top 40% of their own team stat-wise. It seems some are trying to say we have a really good outfield and I don’t think the stats back them up. Our outfield is decent, at best.

[Card4Ever]

I would say mediocre, not terrible, but by no means top shelf.

Note: Sorting just the Cardinals by stat from Baseball Reference. For some reason, a few sorts only go 9 deep.

STL Cards Team Rankings

OPS (Only 9 deep)
Nootbaar 4th
Carlson 8th
O’Neill 9th

OPS+ (Only 9 deep)
Nootbaar 5th
Carlson 8th
O’Neill 9th

OBP (Only 9 deep)

Nootbaar 4th
Carlson 7th
O’Neill 8th

Throwing some counting stats in for giggles

Doubles
Carlson 4th
Dickerson 6th
O’Neill 9th
Nootbaar 10th

Triple
Carlson 2nd
Nootbaar 3rd
Dickerson 8th
O’Neill 9th

Home runs
O’Neill 5th (tie with Gorman)
Nootbaar 7th
Carlson 9th
Dickerson 11th

RBI’s
O’Neill 3rd
Carlsom 6th
Nootbaar 8th
Dickerson 10th

BAVG (Only 9 deep)
Carlson 6th
O’Neill 8th
Nootbaar 9th

[Card4Ever]

This may be blasphemy to some, but watching 6’6″ lefty Montgomery pitch reminds me of a former Cardinal that had an excellent first year before injuries derailed his career, Mark Mulder.

[Author]

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