Questions For 2023

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Viewing 25 posts - 926 through 950 (of 953 total)
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  • #207911
    GameCard
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    I would choose Nootbarr.

    #207913
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    So would Toronto.

    #207915
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t trust any of these pundits and their trade rumors. I believe that almost all rumors are started by a leak from some team’s front office, or by ‘inside information’ that some agent wants publicized. Both are intended to manipulate the negotiations.

    #207916
    GameCard
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    Free

    I am glad Toronto is in agreement now do it.

    #207917
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    MLB.com sending a message the Cardinals could focus on prospects, not free agents.

    “What if the Cardinals’ biggest offseason acquisitions weren’t actually pricy free agents and are already part of the organization? Can’t-miss superstar Jordan Walker, anyone? Fire-balling shortstop Masyn Winn or catching prospect Iván Herrera? The promising arms of Connor Thomas or Gordon Graceffo?”

    I wonder if the author understands that the biggest three of the five names he cited have never played an inning of Triple-A ball… So they are expected to be big MLB contributors in 2023? “Can’t miss?” Really?

    #207919
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Circling back the MTV.com, Jansen has trade value 24.9. The three Cardinals mentioned are O’Neill 24.5, Nootbaar 32.8, and Carlson 49.9.

    #207926
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

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    O’Neill and Jansen similarities:

    *Two seasons of club control remaining
    *Similar salaries 4.0 & 4.5mil (estimates)
    *Both part time players due to injuries

    That lines up better than usual. Of course TOR is targeting lefty bats, which O’Neill isn’t. May have to build a pair with Burleson involved.

    What Mo shouldn’t do is trade five seasons of Noot for two part time seasons of Jansen. At that point it’s Jansen plus for Noot or stand pat at catcher.

    #207928
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    What about Jansen’s defense?

    #207930
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    This was Bernie’s analysis of Jansen a few weeks ago.

    DANNY JANSEN

    Status: 27 years old. Right-handed hitter. Can become a free agent in 2025. Stands 6 foot 2 and weighs 225 pounds. Made his MLB debut in 2018 and has played in 323 games for the Blue Jays. Hasn’t been an American All-Star or won any awards. MLB career batting line: .223 average, .307 OBP, .423 slug, .731 OPS, 98 OPS+, or two percent below league average.

    Offense: Jansen has really bloomed – or boomed – offensively over the last two seasons. If we combine his performance over 2021-2022, here’s what we see: a .496 slugging percentage, .817 OPS, and a 141 OPS+ which means he’s been 41 percent above league offensively over that time. Over the past two seasons Jansen has struck for a homer every 15.3 at-bats, which is fantastic. And he’s done all of this while striking out in only 19.4 percent of his plate appearances during the last two seasons. In 2022 Jansen slugged .516 and bashed 15 homers in 215 at-bats – an average of one homer every 14.3 ABs. Jansen’s .516 slug in ‘22 led all MLB catchers that had at least 240 plate appearances. And his 140 wRC+ (park and league adjusted runs created led all Blue Jays and was tops among MLB catchers with a minimum 240 PA. Like Alejandro Kirk, Jansen has put up good numbers against RHP.

    Defense: Below-average overall with a minus 0.5 Fielding Runs Above Average in 2022. That ranked tied for 27th among MLB catchers that were behind the plate for at least 800 pitches. (A reminder that Kirk was +11 in Fielding Runs Above Average, 3rd in MLB.) Jansen was ranked 28th in pitch-framing, 8th in blocking, 10th in throwing, and matched the MLB average with a caught-stealing rate of 26 percent.

    Injuries: In 2021 Jansen missed 67 total days on two different stays on the IL with a strained hamstring. In 2022, he missed 34 days with a strained oblique, and another 36 days with a finger injury. So that’s a total of 137 days missed to injury over the last two seasons combined.

    Questions: (1) Will injuries be an issue? (2) Jansen can become a free agent in 2025, which means he’d be under contract control for two more seasons. Is that a plus or a minus? Kirk is under contract control over the next four seasons, which theoretically would provide continuity at the position through 2026. But what if the Cardinals are genuine in their stated desire to develop and install prospect Ivan Herrera as their starting catcher? Herrera isn’t ready. But if Herrera is as good as the Cardinals believe, having Jansen in place for the next two seasons would coincide nicely with Herrera’s growth into a more prominent goal. And because the team that acquires Kirk would have four years of contract control with him, it seems that the cost of acquiring Kirk would be more expensive than the cost of dealing for Jansen. (3) What about Busch Stadium? Not a problem for Jansen. Via Statcast, all 50 of his career homers would have been home runs at Busch.

    https://www.scoopswithdannymac.com/bernie-could-the-cardinals-next-catcher-come-from-toronto-my-look-at-alejandro-kirk-and-danny-jansen/

    #207934
    blingboy
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    I guess the defense would be tolerable in exchange for some offense. I wonder if the idea is Herrera would be here getting some reps along side whoever Mo gets.

    #207966
    Ratsbuddy
    Participant

    Free

    Wong to Seattle for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro.

    As I said in the Rumors thread I like this trade for Wong.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #207967
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
    Participant

    Free

    The problem with John Denton’s idea is twofold. 1. the Cardinals NEVER splurge in free agency so, there is no danger in that. 2. The “Young Stars” for the Dodgers, Braves and Astros come through and contribute to pennant WS wins. The Cardinals young stars never blossom into anything.

    #207968
    Bob Reed
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    “If we combine his performance over 2021-2022, here’s what we see: a .496 slugging percentage, .817 OPS, and a 141 OPS+ which means he’s been 41 percent above league offensively over that time.”

    Bernie is incorrect there. While Jansen did have a 141 OPS+ in 2022 (215 at-bats for the entire season), he had a 105 OPS+ in 2021 (184 AB’s for the entire season). So the total for 2021/22 is roughly a 125 OPS+. Which admittedly is terrific for a catcher…unless of course that catcher is accruing just 200 AB’s per season.

    —————————————————-

    Sean Murphy had 612 plate appearances in 2022.

    Danny Jansen had exactly 600 plate appearances in 2022 & 2021 & 2020. Combined.

    In short, Danny Jansen is an injury machine and the Cardinals would be insane to even consider making an offer for him. It might be even crazier than making an offer for 32-year-old mediocrity Christian Vazquez. Only Murphy and Alejandro Kirk should be under consideration for the catcher slot. They are stars. They have 3 and 4 years of team control left, respectively. And they don’t make any money!

    And either of them should be gettable without surrendering a starting outfielder or elite prospect. How about this? Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan, plus Liberatore or Thompson or Pallante or McGreevy, plus Yepez or Burleson, plus a low minors sweetener like Cho or Baez or Willis.

    And if you think that’s too much to give up, well that’s precisely my point. The Cards have plenty of desirable players they can trade, without touching Walker, Winn, Graceffo, or Hence. (Or Leonardo Bernal.) And without cutting a chunk from the MLB outfield. The Cards can basically trade nothing but redundancies and get a star catcher in return.

    For starting catcher, Murphy and Kirk aren’t the best two choices. They are the only two choices. If you can’t get one of them, it’s better to just try a timeshare with Herrera & Knizner, grab a crap backup veteran like Tucker Barnhart, and hope for the best. But it really, really, really should not come down to that.

    #207969
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    That is a gross misstatement Nathan. The Cardinals developed Sandy Alcantara and he produced 8.0 Wins Above Replacement in 2022 alone. That is third in all of MLB behind only Judge and Ohtani.

    #207971
    bccran
    Participant

    I can’t remember when I was as excited as I am right now for young Cardinal position players. Edman and Donovan seem firmly planted. Nootbaar showed promise. O’Neill is a potential All Star if he can stay healthy.
    And Carlson IMHO still has a high ceiling. But even more intriguing is the development of Gorman, Yepez, Burleson, Walker, Herrera, and Winn. All with strong potential.

    #207974
    blingboy
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    Agree crany, 2023 will fun to watch unfold. Hopefully Mo doesn’t do too much damage this winter.

    #207975
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

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    Really nice read Bob, thanks for that.

    You covered stars for our prospects with Murphy and Kirk, and then as the alternative, grab a crap backup in Barnhardt and hope for the best.

    I’d be interested in your thoughts, and cost for acquiring a mlb ready catcher like Gabe Moreno (TOR) or Daulton Varsho (ARI), to pair w/Knizner while Herrera remains as minors depth.

    I’m not a fan of adding a dead end vet to catch 81 games w/Knizner, but would appreciate giving a young catcher playing time while Herrera continues to develop. An acquisition now who eventually we would pair w/Herrera, and push Knizner out the door in a couple of seasons.

    #207978
    bccran
    Participant

    Walker – 20
    Winn – 20
    Herrera – 22
    Gorman – 22
    Carlson – 24
    Yepez – 24
    Burleson – 24
    Gomez – 24
    Donovan – 25
    Nootbaar – 25

    #208018
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    Thanks for the kind words, JJ. As for Gabriel Moreno, I suspect he simply isn’t available, full stop. He is a consensus uber-elite prospect — sort of the Jordan Walker of the Jays — and the reason Toronto would trade Danny Jansen or Tijuana Santa, aka Alejandro Kirk. I think Moreno is going to be terrific, and I don’t blame you a bit if you covet him. But in terms of Blue Jays, I’ve set my Cardinal cap for Mr. Kirk, and I hope Mo has too.

    Daulton Varsho is such a unicorn, I dunno what the Diamondbacks see for his future. He caught fewer than 20 games in 2022, though. So he might be strictly an outfielder going forward; I think Arizona would probably want to hold on to him.

    ——————————————————–

    That’s a nice list, eh Cranny? Even if it turns out there’s no perennial All-Stars, there’s still a slew of 3-4 WAR players. And three guys like that = two average players plus a superduperstar.

    #208034
    Christopher Jeske
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The Steamer projections have been available on FanGraphs and it shows how stacked we are with solid options. I pulled some projected stats for players that could see significant time in the outfield dh, or at 2b.

    Below are the rate Steamer projections, sorted by wRC+.

    Nootbaar – .247/.344/.444, .788 OPS, .197 ISO, 12.1 BB%, 21.1 K%, 126 wRC+
    Yepez – .251/.314/.470, .783 OPS, .219 ISO, 7.5 BB%, 21.7 K%, 122 wRC+
    Donovan – .270/.363/.393, .756 OPS, .123 ISO, 11.0 BB%, 15.9 K%, 121 wRC+
    O’Neill – .243/.315/.448, .763 OPS, .205 ISO, 8.2 BB%, 28.2 K%, 118 wRC+
    Burleson – .273/.321/.446, .767 OPS, .173 ISO, 5.8 BB%, 16.3 K%, 118 wRC+
    Carlson – .253/.332/.417, .749 OPS, .164 ISO, 9.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 115 wRC+
    Walker – .258/.318/.427, .745 OPS, .169 ISO, 7.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, 113 wRC+
    Gomez – .230/.293/.454, .748 OPS, .224 ISO, 7.6 BB%, 33.8 K%, 111 wRC+
    Gorman – .239/.299/.440, .739 OPS, .201 ISO, 7.2 BB%, 28.5 K%, 110 wRC+

    What stands out to me:
    For median projections, these seem to be really strong overall. We should feel good about having nine players who project at 10% or more above average by wRC+ to throw at essentially 5 positions (3 OF, DH, and 2B).
    Nootbaar has the best overall projection on a rate basis. I would have expected O’Neill, who places in the middle of the pack to be closer to the top.
    Donovan has the highest on base percentage, leading Nootbaar by a good margin.
    Burleson has the highest batting average projection, narrowly topping Donovan. On a rate basis Burleson’s projection is almost identical to O’Neill’s.
    Walker’s rate projections are almost identical to Carlson’s.
    Gomez has the best projected isolated power, narrowly topping Yepez. Both of them are handily ahead of O’Neill and Gorman, each who clear the .200 mark, with Nootbaar falling just below it.

    Now here are the plate appearances and WAR projected by Steamer, sorted by WAR. I’ve also added a WAR/600 with a ranking for the full-season equivalent rate.

    Donovan – 528 PA, 2.9 WAR | 3.3 WAR/600; 3rd
    Carlson – 509 PA, 2.9 WAR | 3.4 WAR/600; 2nd
    Nootbaar – 446 PA, 2.8 WAR | 3.8 WAR/600; 1st
    O’Neill – 539 PA, 2.6 WAR | 2.9 WAR/600; 4th
    Walker – 440 PA, 1.5 WAR | 2.0 WAR/600; 7th-t
    Gorman – 389 PA, 1.5 WAR | 2.3 WAR/600; 6th
    Yepez – 359 PA, 1.2 WAR | 2.0 WAR/600; 7th-t
    Burleson – 86 PA, 0.4 WAR | 2.8 WAR/600; 5th
    Gomez – 1 PA, 0.0 WAR | n/a

    What stands out to me:
    The base running, defense, and positional adjustment give Carlson a nice boost into a tie for best overall in WAR and second in WAR/600.
    If Burleson plays as well as he projects, he needs to get more playing time than is projected.
    Despite the lower than I expected rate projections for O’Neill, he projects for the most plate appearances using this model.

    Hopefully the Cardinals’ ZiPS will be posted soon too.

    #208036
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Thanks for the effort (typing) CJ.

    Carlson roughly matching Donovans production would sure be a welcome sight. I’ve been expecting him to get a statistical bump by switching to CF full time.

    Walker fourth in OF PA’s and Burleson fifth. Of course O’Neill has to stay off the IL to lead the outfield in PA’s, which would fall to Burleson as soon as Tyler goes IL.

    #208066
    gscottar
    Participant

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    Carlson is going to have to improve against RH pitching. Let’s not forget that by last September he was basically a platoon/utility player.

    #208092
    Card4Ever
    Participant

    Free

    Kind of hoping rumors are true about Murphy and Braves. I would like Murphy in a Cards uniform, but if price is huge, maybe Contreras (The Younger) or d’Arnaud would be a wiser play.

    Sorry, but Kirk scares me. 3 inches shorter and 40 pounds heavier than Yadi? Not good for someone who squats half the game.

    #208098
    shakenbake McBride
    Participant

    Free

    I agree with Card4Ever…hard pass on the Jays catchers…nothing special offensively or defensively.

    #208103
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    Here are a few forecasts for the 2023 season, from the Steamer projections.

    Nolan Arenado 130 OPS+, Austin Riley 137, Paul Goldschmidt 140, Bryce Harper 141, Alejandro Kirk 142.

    Kirk is short. Kirk is fat. And very soon Kirk might be the best-hitting catcher since Johnny Bench. Tijuana Santa just turned 24 and has already started an All-Star game — and he has four years left before free agency.

    I don’t know if I’d want him behind the plate for 140+ games, or want him for the next ten years…but those questions are 99% irrelevant. Kirk is such a good bat he can DH for 50 or 60 games a year, and catch for 90-100. And I don’t care if his body breaks down when he’s 30. He’ll be long gone from St. Louis by then.

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