January 2, 2021 at 7:56 am #151016Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
A quick reminder of what this thread is about.
If you have an idea for a trade or acquisition target for the Cardinals, this is the ideal place to discuss it. Same if you want to talk about a player in another organization or a free agent.
We start new individual threads when a major media source connects the Cardinals with a particular player. At times, the moderators will merge new threads into this one if they are deemed to best fit here based on the preceding criteria.January 2, 2021 at 8:47 am #151029
A fresh start! I like it. Hopefully lots of crazy jager ideas and off the wall thoughts on trades or signings here. Hopefully the Cards are a bit more active by a year from now with a better idea of revenue and fans back in the stands.
My top priority now…go get a guy like Brandon Nimmo. High OBP, not a ton of HR power but lots of doubles too. Kind of a Matt Carpenter type (when Carp was good) that would be an excellent leadoff man and might fit the bccran mold of an arb eligible guy who could play here a couple of years to see how the fit is.January 2, 2021 at 11:18 am #151031gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
There are tons of cheapish free agents and trade candidates that could help the Cards in 2021.
PeraltaJanuary 2, 2021 at 11:44 am #151033
Saw a blurb on Nishikawa and it mentioned the Cardinals being one of the interested partiesJanuary 2, 2021 at 11:52 am #151035
I’d add to your list
NishikawaJanuary 2, 2021 at 12:22 pm #151038
Nishikawa seems like a low floor, low ceiling type. Probably a good glove if you need a backup CFer who won’t hit for much power but can get on base. Like a poor man’s Kolten Wong in the OF. I’d imagine he wouldn’t cost much, but probably won’t provide a lot of value either. If Bader wasn’t around, I could see the fit more than now.January 2, 2021 at 2:18 pm #151044
I thought of him the same way. Solid on base OFer with good value off the bench as pinch hitter and stolen base threat. Also it’s free us up to move one of them in another deal.
But alas. New report says Nishikawa is staying in Japan
IMO it reads like the Cardinals and other teams super lowballed him and he didn’t think it was worth it.
It had to be pretty low I’d think if he was even considering coming. Undoubtedly less than AkiyamaJanuary 5, 2021 at 12:22 pm #151151
Blockbuster idea of the day:
Angels get Flaherty, O’Neill and Gomber
Cardinals get Adell, Canning and Jones
Angels get an ace, a power hitter and a back of the rotation starter. Cardinals get offensive upgrade, a starter with very good potential and a potential second baseman this year.
Using the Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator, the Angels get the best of the trade. Considering things from my point of view, I am not sure the Angels would ever think of doing it. All 3 of the players going to the Cardinals were top 100 prospects at one time or another with Adell being a top 10. From what I am reading, Canning has the potential to be just as good as Flaherty.
This trade might not look to improve the Cardinals in 2021 but should have the net effect of improving the team for the next 5 years. Could you imagine an OF of Adell, Bader and Carlson in 2022 with all of them hitting around their average ability? That would be great. Jones is not a great defender but he could be a very good hitter.January 5, 2021 at 12:34 pm #151152
Adell is way overrated in my book. He will strike out too much to tap into his potential, IMO. I think Tyler O’Neill is a good comp, actually. Canning is a “poor man’s Flaherty” who will likely not be much more than a #3-4 starter. Jones could play 2B, so I’ll give him that.
On balance, the Angels would probably not be able to sign up fast enough for that. I would be firmly opposed to that trade. If Flaherty is traded, I’d prefer a more sure thing coming back than Adell.January 5, 2021 at 6:50 pm #151166mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
I like Gomber more than a lot of people here do, I guess. He’s got an impressive curveball, IMO, and a fastball with movement. Give him time and I think he will impress a lot of people. I would not include Gomber as a ‘throw-in’ in any trade, and that’s what I think this prospective trade does. I worry that right after we trade O’Neill he becomes an offensive threat. What I like about O’Neill is that you can see him improving. I think it’s way too early to say ‘he is what he is’. I don’t particularly like Flaherty for personal reasons. He wants to use the public forum given to him to voice his political views, and I don’t like that he identifies himself as being Black when he is not Black. He is mixed race. That has political overtones, also. I would rather not have some kid’s political views thrown in my face when I’m trying to watch a baseball game. Hopefully, he grows up and out of that behavior. On the other hand, if he turns out to be as good as the hype that surrounds him, he should not be traded unless it’s for something overwhelming like a Lindor type of player with years of control.January 5, 2021 at 8:15 pm #151167
I like Gomber, too. I don’t think he is a throw in on the trade. The Angels NEED pitching and they get 2 starters and a potential good OFer to replace the top prospect they would be trading away. I look at this as an opportunity to get a good hitting young prospect OFer. My concern with Flaherty is whether or not the Cardinals can keep him beyond 2023 due to signability concerns. They have an opportunity to use him to get an OF hitter like Adell, Kelenic, Kiriloff or Waters.
Do you look at this differently with Marsh instead of Adell and keep O’Neill? I am not sure that would be good for the Cardinals but if it is, O’Neill or Bader could be traded to get a prospect.January 5, 2021 at 8:23 pm #151168
I don’t want to trade Flaherty at all unless the team is not going to be competitive for multiple years going forward. People act like he was awful this year. And he was…against one team. Sans Milwaukee he had a 2.78 ERA in the rest of his starts. I fully believe that he would have been down in the low to mid 3s ERA over a full season.
His first two full seasons netted 3.21 and 2.75 ERAs. He led the league in WHIP at 23. Let that sink in.
I don’t care for his politics either, but he’s a very good young pitcher and those don’t just grow on trees. He, Hudson, Reyes, Liberatore, Thompson and Oviedo could be the core of a World Series winning rotation. To remove Jack takes a #1 starter out and replaces him with a question mark. Resign him after 2023 or let him walk. But no trade unless there’s a full tear down, which is unnecessary at this point.January 5, 2021 at 8:26 pm #151169mspaidParticipantFree
I agree on Flaherty unless you could get Trout. I’m for clearing out all the bad contracts and rebuilding but not him. He would be a guy you build around.January 5, 2021 at 9:14 pm #151173
25, I agree that those 6 would be good to build around but the Cardinals will only use 5 starters during the season and only need 4 during the playoffs. Those other 5 could still be one of the best starting rotations. Meanwhile, the Cardinals could take advantage of their strength to solidify a weakness.
As it stands right now, the Cardinals will not have a very good offense over the next 3 years unless they get major contributions from O’Neill, Carlson AND Gorman. OR, they need to trade for upgrades. OR, they need to sign some high end free agents. Right now, I am not confident that any of that will happen.
I firmly believe the Cardinals will not be able to sign Flaherty to a contract past 2023. To me, letting him go free agent and taking a draft pick (if it’s still even in the collective bargaining agreement) is a waste of his value.January 5, 2021 at 9:36 pm #151174
Those other 5 could still be one of the best starting rotations. Meanwhile, the Cardinals could take advantage of their strength to solidify a weakness.
If Flaherty is a true ace (and he sure looks like he’s one), then you can’t just subtract him and still have a great rotation. That would depend on one of those other guys to step up. It would be a big ask for one of them to be better than Flaherty so far.
Jack has also been very good in 3 of his 4 postseason starts, which counts for something IMO. Overall he has a 3.52 ERA in October with 30 Ks and 6 walks in 23 IP.
I’d also question why they couldn’t sign a free agent next year? Will they have an $80-90 million payroll? I just can’t imagine that happening or flying with fans, unless Gorman and Carlson are playing like megastars. I’d bet on some big addition next year and it shouldn’t require trading our best pitcher with three years of control left to do it.January 6, 2021 at 9:52 am #151201gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I would not be a fan of that proposed trade. Adell has been a highly ranked prospect but hasn’t proven anything yet at the big league level. His debut in 2020 was terrible. That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually become a star but he could also end up being a flop. The only way I am sending Flaherty to the Angels is if we are getting Trout or Rendon back.
I am not trading Flaherty at all unless we are getting proven big league talent in return. Whether we as fans like his politics or not should be irrelevant as long as he doesn’t allow it to become such a distraction that it impacts his performance on the field. The bigger concern with him is his hard line stance on compensation issues. With all of the financial freedom the Cardinals will have after 2021 next winter would be the perfect time to pursue a long term deal with Flaherty. Make him an offer he can’t refuse. That is assuming that the CBA negotiations don’t completely blow up.January 6, 2021 at 10:02 am #151204
I understand what you are saying and I know Flaherty is starting to look like an ace. It might be painful but the reward should be worth it. Reyes has ace potential. Liberatore has close to ace potential.
I think the Cardinals could sign a free agent next year but their track record on the top talent is not good. I can’t think of any top tier free agent the Cardinals have signed that weren’t already on the team before free agency. Signing more Fowler’s won’t cut it.January 6, 2021 at 10:18 am #151207
I think the Cardinals could sign a free agent next year but their track record on the top talent is not good. I can’t think of any top tier free agent the Cardinals have signed that weren’t already on the team before free agency. Signing more Fowler’s won’t cut it.
I agree that we shouldn’t sign any more Fowlers. I would also note that the Cards haven’t had the sort of money available that they’ll have next year, either. That’s not to say that they should waste it, but not a lot of teams will have that sort of cash to spend that won’t have their own guys to bring back. It may just be the Cards, Giants and maybe the Mets if they hold off this year. The Dodgers and Cubs will but they will have guys like Seager, Kershaw, Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, etc to have to bring back too.January 6, 2021 at 10:48 am #151218
I think the Cubs, Dodgers and Yankees will always be in on the big free agents. Chicago has Kimbrel coming off the books and I could see them either trading Bryant or letting him walk. In addition, they don’t have very much committed to 2022. The Yankees have a little higher payroll commitment but they still have a lot of room. The Dodgers will have Kershaw and Jansen coming off the books after 2021. Kershaw will probably be re-signed but he will be 34 years old before the 2022 season. That might lower his salary a little. Price comes off after 2022. I could see all of them still affecting free agents.
Even with the money the Cardinals have, other than shortstops, there aren’t very many difference makers that will be free agents after 2021. We aren’t going to sign a third baseman. There aren’t very many outfielders I would want. The only other thing I might be interested in is Scherzer.January 6, 2021 at 11:06 am #151222jj-cf-stlParticipantPaid - Annual
Flaherty isn’t going to break the bank with his arb salaries, just go yearly and hold onto him until his free agency. He should have surplus value for 3 more seasons. If we keep him, we haven’t wasted his value, we’ve utilized it on the field.
The Rays wouldn’t even trade Flaherty at this point of his club control. 3mil as an arb1 is peanuts for a CYA-4 on his resume’. Lets let him pitch for his future free agency and reap the expected benefits.January 6, 2021 at 11:08 am #151223
While those big market teams may sign some players…like I said, they would be adding guys they just subtracted. So some players may well be on the market such as Lindor, maybe Seager (if the Dodgers sign a SS), Correa, Conforto, etc.
So if they can’t sign a free agent, why wouldn’t they be able to sign Flaherty to a deal? I mean, with $70M of payroll room or more and nothing to spend it on, the only way they couldn’t extend Jack is if he’s completely opposed to it at any cost. It’s not my money, so they could offer him $30M a year for 5-7 years and be in fine financial shape still. Overpay? Maybe. But you keep an ace.January 6, 2021 at 11:15 am #151224
If Flaherty is pitching like an ace when he hits free agency, I expect him to be looking for $35 million a year. He will expect to be paid like Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, etc. He will be young enough to get around 8 years or more and probably get the money. That is not normal operating procedures for the Cardinals.January 6, 2021 at 11:22 am #151225
If Flaherty is pitching like an ace when he hits free agency, I expect him to be looking for $35 million a year. He will expect to be paid like Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, etc. He will be young enough to get around 8 years or more and probably get the money. That is not normal operating procedures for the Cardinals.
Which is why you do the extension after next year. What’s he gonna make in arbitration year 2 and 3? At best, $25M total? If you offer a deal at, say, $30M a year for 5 years (Arb2 and Arb3 plus 3 years after free agency) he still hits free agency at age 30 and gets a big bump over his expected salary (which would be about $130M even at max arb and $35M a year for free agency). Perhaps he’s going to FA on principle, but principle has a way of dwindling in the face of $20M.
The Cards could afford this easily for 2022-23 while still adding a star level bat. Would Flaherty accept it? I think so. Perhaps the deal would need to be longer with an opt out after year 5. Who knows…but if he looks good next year it’s not a bad bet to make.January 6, 2021 at 11:35 am #151228
That deal makes sense to you and me but I am not sure it does to Flaherty based on all that I have heard. He seems to be set on pushing the envelope of the salary structure. I would be surprised if the Cardinals could buy out a couple of years of arbitration and free agency unless it is a precedence setting contract.January 6, 2021 at 11:41 am #151230
Forsch, $30M a year for an arb eligible player would absolutely be a precedent setter. Would Flaherty really pass up $30M or more above what he’d make in arbitration on principle? I dunno…it would have to at least be very enticing.
Note that the Cards probably would not do this. They’d make a “robust” offer more in line with market rates and he might well reject it. I’m just saying that if the Cards whiffed on every position upgrade next year, they’d more than easily be able to afford it. In fact, with Yadi coming back and signing Flaherty for $30M for 2022, that year’s payroll would still only be around $120M, or less than this year’s gutted payroll.
I’m still of the belief that the Cards will probably win the NL Central next year and be in position to use their large payroll gap to make a true Series contender in the 2022-24 range. I don’t think it makes sense to trade one of your best players simply because he may leave partway through that run. Like jj said, I’d rather keep his value on the field. The rotation core mentioned above with a positional core of Carlson, Goldy, Gorman, Dejong, and an outside acquisition or perhaps a player like O’Neill stepping up is a pretty potent sounding team.
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