[Bob Reed]

Thanks for compiling those numbers, 25. The “worst” two of the bunch are Ivan Herrera (above average in AAA at age 21) and Jordan Walker (excelling at age 19 in AA). So it’s fair to say the hitting side of things has gone tremendously well — everywhere except the majors, anyway.

And the pitching side of the ledger has been almost as successful; Matt Liberatore and Connor Thomas have been quite solid again for Memphis, and McGreevy, Graceffo, and Dionys Rodriguez (younger than the other two) have combined for a sub-1.50 ERA at Peoria. Even Zack Thompson has surprised me by pitching presentably well, after his nightmare 2021 season.

All in all, the only Redbird prospect of note whose stock has gone down so far is Malcom Nunez. Everyone else is either holding serve or moving up. Probably makes the Cards one of the top 3-5 farm systems right now, with a reasonable chance to be #1 and have 8-10 top 100 types by July. Lotta momentum right now.

[Bob Reed]

Why on earth use Woodford in the 9th inning mop-up role today, when the Redbird 3-inning starter is pitching tomorrow?!

Wouldn’t it have made a lot more sense to bring in Woodford directly after Hicks on Sunday? It really, really really feels like Marmol is using Woodford in every way possible to avoid giving him a chance to show he can be a starting pitcher. No long relief appearances, no high leverage. It’s as if Marmol literally doesn’t know that Woodford was solid last year, fantastic in September when given the chance to start, and then excellent again in Spring Training.

It’s as if Marmol slept through all of that. Or personally despises Woodford so much that Jake’s track record just doesn’t matter. (Maybe Jake protested when not given the 5th starter slot he earned in Spring Training, and Marmol is getting even with him, showing him who’s the boss. I dunno, but it makes more sense than any other explanation. It isn’t injury.)

[Bob Reed]

…and that’s why they have Pitcher Fielding Practice. All Gallegos had to do was make a routine run to first base.

Instead he stood and watched. Ugh.

[Bob Reed]

“Is Votto officially the worst contract in baseball?”

“Worst contract has to be Upton isn’t it? Like 28 mil and was told to GTFOH by LAA management.”

Two solid nominees, gentlemen. Though in fairness it must be noted that Votto had a very nice bounceback season in 2021: 36 homers and 99 ribbies in just 129 games. And although this has no bearing on his contract value, he also topped 2,000 career knocks, which probably clinched an eventual spot in the Hall Of Fame.

My selection, however, would be Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin. Since the start of 2020 he’s been cumulatively below replacement level, at a cost of roughly $30MM so far and another $20MM by the end of this season. And then over the next two years he’ll be paid another $60 million(!) to apparently be quite dreadful. (His ERA is a whisker under 6.00 for his last 45 starts.)

[Bob Reed]

Booyah asked:
“Where is Woodford at? They throw VerHagen out there again!”

Yeah, and then Brooks. Woodford hasn’t pitched in a week and a half. Anyone have any idea what his injury is? I mean, it MUST be an injury, right?

Marmol was half crazy to not name Woodford his fifth starter coming out of Spring Training, but he couldn’t personally dislike Woodford enough to simply not use him at all, if he’s healthy. Right? Right?

[Bob Reed]

“Bob Reed, any thoughts on Tovalin at PB? I get the impression this guy is going tô just hit and hit and hit.”

You could be right, CC. I’m withholding my endorsement until he does so at a higher level, though.

The thing about Tovalin, listed at 6’2″ and 230, he has little or no defensive or baserunning value (9 errors in 36 pro starts at the hot corner), so he’ll have to really clobber the ball to contribute against MLB opposition. And that is such a tough standard.

I was highly intrigued when he was drafted, mind you. Anybody who slugs .700+ in college while fanning less than 10 percent of the time…well, that gets my attention. But upon further investigation, it became quickly clear that Azusa Pacific had a LOT of big bats in their lineup — seven AP hitters had an OPS north of 1.000 during Osvaldo’s senior season (min. 100 PA’s). So those gaudy collegiate numbers just aren’t that impressive after all.

Anyway, the guy is 22 in Low-A (and kinda flunked his first trial there last year, with that atrocious BB/K combo) so he pretty much needs to be succeeding in AA by the end of 2023, for me to consider him a potential bench contributor or longshot for DH. And maybe he will. He has certainly shown massive improvement so far at Palm Beach.

Maybe this makes me a killjoy, but I’d probably have him somewhere in the mid-to-upper 20’s, as far as Redbird prospect rankings go.

[Bob Reed]

“Can anyone remember a position pipeline better than Gorman, Yepez, Donovan, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Herrera, and Baez?”

Very good question, cranny. Don’t forget Malcom Nunez either. And something tells me Won-Bin Cho will be a top 10 Redbird prospect by year’s end. I just wish I could share your enthusiasm for young Mr. Baez.

But getting back to the original question, let’s take a look at the Cardinal position prospects of three years ago. Many of them were the same as now: Gorman, Herrera, Nunez, Yepez, Donovan. So we need to compare Burleson, Walker, and Winn to the guys who graduated from the 2019 list. Namely, Dylan Carlson, Randy Arozarena, and Tommy Edman. If Walker moves to a corner outfield as I expect, and becomes Arozarena or Carlson (take your pick) that would be a generally positive outcome. A smidge disappointing, but generally positive. Then if Burleson becomes the other guy, Randy or Dylan, that would in fact be a VERY positive development.

And that brings us to Masyn Winn. If he becomes Tommy Edman — the overall MLB career performer, not the 2022 slugger or 2021 disappointment — that would make Masyn Winn a 3-4 WAR regular, and we would have to be overjoyed with that, right? So it’s a close call; I think I would lean toward the 2019 list for now.

But in case we need a tie-breaker, the 2019 list also had 3rd baseman Elehuris Montero. And after his dreadful age-20 season in AA, and the missing Covid campaign, he has bounced back marvelously well. Last year he fairly clobbered AA at age 22 (.280 with 28 HR in 120 games), and now he’s absolutely killing it in AAA. He’s no Arenado of course, but the Rockies didn’t do as badly for themselves as some folks made out at the time. I should probably mention that the Cards also had Andrew Knizner, Edmundo Sosa and Adolis Garcia for sweeteners back then. No big deal, but worth citing for sure.

So once again we see how surprisingly, almost shockingly productive the “mediocre” Cardinal farm system has been. I say “mediocre” because as Mr. Walton quite correctly pointed out in a recent podcast, the Birds have mistakenly been ranked middle-of-the-pack by mainstream prognosticators for many consecutive years. Well, I say mistakenly. Brian was much too diplomatic to say so. (Glancing at the Fangraphs grades from three years back, here’s how they saw St. Louis prospects: Knizner and Gorman, MLB regulars. Carlson, good bench player. Montero, marginal bench guy. And among the myriad names mentioned above, everyone else completely inconsequential, outside the top 300, which translates to less than 1 total expected career WAR.)

[Bob Reed]

Just a reminder. Combining Low-A and High-A last year, then-19-year-old Masyn Winn — away from the extremely pitcher-friendly environs of Roger Dean Stadium and Dozer Park — batted a stellar .320 in 185 trips to the plate.

And furthermore, if we take those road numbers from 2021 and extrapolate to 160 games, Masyn would’ve hit 16 homers, 8 triples, and 44 doubles to go with that .320 average. And he’d have posted 52 steals in 56 tries.

Based on his performance in Low-A last year as a teen, Masyn Winn probably should’ve been a consensus top 100 prospect. Across all four levels of full-season minor league ball last year, there were very few players who met these five qualifications: young for league, up-the-middle defender, 110 wRC+ or better, .60 BB/K or better, and 7.0 speed score or higher. Masyn Winn and Robert Hassell III were in fact the only two minor leaguers to satisfy all five requirements. (Both did so in Low-A at 19, before struggling upon their High-A promotions.) But I think everyone got too distracted by (1)the rather fanciful two-way possibility for Winn; and (2)his terrible performance in High-A last year.

————————————————–

Shohei Ohtani notwithstanding, the two-way thing was highly unlikely to ever reach fruition for Masyn. If he winds up a pitcher, so be it. But hitters stay healthier by a long shot, and are just generally more valuable over time. So that has naturally become the focus for Winn. Good for the Cards to not get drunk on his velocity and rush & ruin him, as they’ve done so despicably with Jordan Hicks and Johan Oviedo.

And as to the other matter, anyone who merely makes it to High-A as a teenager has already accomplished something. A positive performance there is just gravy. And a poor performance by any player when they are multiple years young for their league should simply be ignored, assuming the player succeeded one level lower during the same season.

Based on his total pro track record, estimating his 80th-90th percentile outcome, Masyn Winn could be Tim Anderson with more walks. He could be Jimmy Rollins without all the popups. Or maybe he’s just a future Tommy Edman, but at shortstop rather than keystone. And that’d be dandy too.

[Bob Reed]

“73 MLB.com writers pick the Cardinals to miss the playoffs.”

———————————————-

I checked the article and those 73 panelists picked the Padres, Mets, and Giants for the N.L.’s trio of wildcard slots. Let’s do a quick historical overview.

The Padres haven’t won 80 games in a season since 2010. The Cards have won 86+ games in 12 of Mozeliak’s 13 full seasons in charge. And Fernando Tatis, Jr. is hurt.

The Mets have had a better record than the Cardinals once in the past 13 years — that was in 2016 when NYM won exactly one more game than St. Louis. And Jacob DeGrom is hurt.

I won’t quibble with the Giants pick. Because seemingly anything could happen there. I strongly suspect that nobody at MLB.com or anywhere else — including Frisco’s own organization — has any idea what to expect in 2022, since they just had the flukiest season in major league history, finishing 48 games over .500 with an old mediocre roster after four consecutive losing seasons.

—————————————————

So I don’t know how good the Birds will be, but I very much doubt they’ll be worse than all three of the Friars, Frisco, and Mets. My feet to the fire, I’ll stick with 88 wins. (The only prediction/projection that concerns me at all is the Vegas over/under at a depressingly modest 84.5, as the Redbirds are typically 2-4 wins higher than that in March. Vegas knows ballclubs better than PECOTA or ZiPS or anyone at MLB.com, in all likelihood. They have to.)

[Bob Reed]

“Just look at the rankings of the different farm systems out there over the last 10 years.”

Not precisely the past 10 years, but MLB Pipeline rated farm systems for the decade of 2010-2019, and placed the Cards 7th in all of baseball. And that was almost certainly too low, as Pipeline ranked the Cubs 4th, and the Cards’ farm system generated almost 25% more MLB WAR than the Cubs’ during that decade.

You can read about this in more detail, in this thread from November of 2019. It’s just a 2-page thread, and most of the minor league stuff is on the second page. https://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/mlb-team-of-the-decade/page/2/

Basically, I would argue that the Cards stopped being a great franchise after 2015 because they stopped trusting their own player development system, and not because their system didn’t produce enough talent to remain great. Mo was very, very smart from 2009-2015. Then from 2016-Goldschmidt he was one of the absolute worst General Managers in the sport at evaluating talent — all types of talent, including coaches, players, and managers. It was a truly bizarre turn of events.

But I do think Mo has largely returned to his smarter ways — misguided Marmol hiring excepted. Anyway, as far as predictions & projections are concerned, I see the Birds going 88-74. Since they’ve won at least 86 games in 12 of Mo’s 13 seasons, that seems like a reasonably modest prediction to me.

[Bob Reed]

Connor Thomas is called up on May 17th to assume the 5th starter role and goes 12-5 with a 3.12 ERA over 23 starts, winning N.L. Rookie of the Year.

Adam Wainwright staggers to a 2-7 start with a 5.78 ERA, earning a demotion to the bullpen…where he becomes one of the best relievers in the Central. He saves the deciding game in two playoff series.

Harrison Bader hits 37 homers to lead the team, gets a pair of ground-rule doubles in the All-Star game, and finishes 5th in the MVP balloting.

Jake Woodford quits the team in disgust on June 1st, as his 0.00 ERA over the first two months fails to earn him a chance at a rotation slot.

The Cards win 92 games, finishing 2nd to the Reds, who go 93-69. But the Birds win the Wildcard Series in 3 over the Mets, the Division Series in 5 over the Dodgers, and the LCS in 7 over the aforementioned Redlegs. They then sweep the Cleveland Indians in the World Series — the Indians having changed their name back in an effort to snap a 22-game losing skein in July. It works, catapulting them to a controversial, bigoted, insensitive, glorious 25-game winning streak. But they are helpless in October against the Cardinal juggernaut.

[Bob Reed]

Spangenberg is a really fine bench piece, as long as he isn’t permitted to face any southpaws. Just turned 31, so not terribly old. Sure looked good the other day, driving the ball for a pair of opposite-field doubles — and turning on one for a third double in the same game, of course. He and Edmundo Sosa could both start for some teams, I reckon.

At any rate, I’d much rather keep Spangenberg than a 10th reliever, especially since the Birds will be carrying multiple bullpen guys who are classic swingman types. Hope that’s the way Marmol sees it.

[Bob Reed]

Over the past three seasons Pujols had nearly 400 plate appearances vs. southpaws and posted an OPS just over .830 (and well over .900[!] in 2021). So in a straight platoon role he just might have a good bit of value, despite his 42 years.

Welcome back, Albert!

[Bob Reed]

Hard to find fault with this signing. Parker’s a little long in the tooth at 36, and unlike the standard modern reliever he doesn’t intimidate with velocity, but he was effective each of the past two years and has been a “clutch” performer for his career.

Career, bases empty: .249 average allowed, and .714 OPS
With men on base: .212 and .671
Men in scoring position: .184 and .618

In 2021 the splits were even more pronounced.
Empty .842
M.O.B. .591
R.I.S.P. .477

Parker did struggle in September, so there’s a chance he’s not healthy — or is simply washed up. But the risk here is virtually non-existent, and the upside is substantial. Nice job by the Redbird front office, I’d say.

[Bob Reed]

The proper ranking for the Redbird collection of prospects is somewhere between 5th and 11th.

The only distinctly better farm systems are the Orioles, Pirates, Rangers and Royals. Baltimore and K.C. have the consensus top two prospects in the sport, and each franchise also has a #2 prospect with quite plausible star potential — Grayson Rodriguez in Baltimore and M.J. Melendez in Kansas City.

Texas and Pittsburgh each have four top-50 types, and one or two additional top-100 candidates. (Pay particular attention this year to Ranger outfielder Evan Carter, who is on nobody’s top 100 list, nor even close, but rightly belongs in top 20-25 discussions. Now that Jordan Walker has received a top 10 overall ranking at Baseball Prospectus, Evan Carter is the most underrated prospect in baseball. Well, him or the equally neglected Everson Pereira of the Damn Yankees.)

Besides the quartet of teams with a better farm than the Cards, there’s also six organizations with similar-to-StL levels of talent. Alphabetically, those would be Detroit, Frisco, the Mets, the Yanks, San Diego, and Seattle. I’d be very curious to know who the other seven teams are, that BA mistakenly places above the Birds.

[Bob Reed]

“Funny how ESPN just had an article today that was asking if Oscar Charleston was maybe the best player ever…”

Thanks for bringing that article to my attention, Willie. Charleston the greatest? That’s a pretty silly idea, considering Josh Gibson was a far more dominant Negro Leagues batter than outfielder Charleston — and Gibson freakin’ played catcher. Charleston’s career Negro League OPS+ was a tremendous 184 (roughly 145-155 or so if properly converted to the Blanco Leagues). Josh Gibson however posted a vastly superior career 215 OPS+, which converts to Hornsby and Gehrig territory.

In other words, Gibson was unquestionably the greatest hitting catcher in history by a wiiiide margin, and there’s an argument that he was surpassed as a hitter by only Ruth & Williams. Which is why I would contend that Josh Gibson is the greatest position player in baseball history.

Babe Ruth, though, is easily the greatest overall ballplayer. Because during his four seasons as a full-time twirler (age 20-23), he pitched over 1,000 innings and had MLB’s 3rd-best ERA behind just Walter Johnson and Old Pete Alexander, two pretty fair country pitchers with nearly 800 wins between them. So basically, he was pitching at a Hall Of Fame level in his early 20’s, then switched to solely hitting…and you know the rest.

——————————–

As for the top 100 list, I feel like it just rehashes a lot of the same Peak v. Longevity arguments we see every year in Hall Of Fame voting.

[Bob Reed]

“I didn’t look at Walker’s A-ball season. I figured it wasn’t unheard of for guys to dominate in that league. That’s good info.”

I know what you mean, Pads. But it is highly unusual when the guys doing the dominating are just 18. Below is the complete list from the years I researched — back to 1970 in the Midwest League, and 1980 in the Sally League. This is a chronology of every Low-A hitter who posted at least an .888 OPS (with at least one homer per 100 at-bats, to eliminate no-power extreme BABIP flukes).

1973 Chet Lemon .947
1975 Pedro Guerrero .973
1980 Don Mattingly .920
1985 Bob Zambrano .932
1990 Ryan Klesko 1.008
1991 Chipper Jones .925
1994 Alex Rodriguez .984
1996 Adrian Beltre .992
2004 Daric Barton .956
2004 Delmon Young .926
2006 Fernando Martinez .894
2008 Giancarlo Stanton .992
2008 Freddie Freeman .899
2010 Mike Trout .979
2011 Bryce Harper .977
2011 Oscar Taveras 1.028
2013 Corey Seager .918
2017 Vlad Guerrero Jr. .888
2017 Juan Soto .950
2017 Fernando Tatis Jr. .910
2019 Wander Franco .896
2021 Jordan Walker 1.162

As you can see, even with flameouts like Zambrano and Martinez, and duds like Delmon and Daric, the multi-generational Jordan Walker Peer Group is stunning. By the time they’re done, the 21 non-Walkers will have accumulated perhaps 1,000 career WAR. Nice peers.

Like you, Pads, I am mildly concerned by the right/left splits. But only mildly, since his line v. righties was .291/.364/.477, which is still very robust for an 18-year-old splitting his time between Low & High-A.

Add in the excellent speed indicators (more triples than GIDP’s, superb SB/CS ratio) and you have a top 5 overall prospect.

[Bob Reed]

Don’t reproach yourself too much, Pads. Jordan Walker had a lot better year than anyone has given him credit for, from what I’ve seen. Lemme see if I can put his season into its proper historical context.

(Just to get one potentially confusing matter out of the way. I have to keep reminding myself that Palm Beach is now Low-A, and Peoria is High-A. What follows will focus on Palm Beach.)

Jordan was just 18 on Opening Day, 2021, and he thoroughly obliterated full season A-ball. How rare is that? Well, over the past 15 years just 10 batters other than Walker posted an OPS of at least .888 in Low-A at that age. Here’s the 10, alphabetically, with their Low-A OPS:

Wander Franco (.896), Freddie Freeman (.899), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.888), Bryce Harper (.977), Corey Seager (.918), Juan Soto (.950), Giancarlo Stanton (.992), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.910), Oscar Taveras (1.028), and Mike Trout (.979). Some list. Taveras, Wander Franco, and a bunch of superstars. And they all hit between .888 and 1.028.

Jordan Walker just did THIS in Low-A:
.374/.475/.687 for an OPS of 1.162

I went back 50 years in the Midwest League and 40 in the Sally League, and among his age peers, Walker’s Low-A OPS is easily the highest (Taveras is 2nd, actually). The catch is, Jordan Walker had just 122 trips to the plate for Palm Beach. And of course, when a ballplayer dominates over a relatively small number of at-bats, it’s reasonable and responsible to aggressively question whether the performance can be sustained.

————————————–

Well, I believe Walker was no small-sample fluke, and I’m nearly certain he would have kept right on doing what he was doing. I believe this for four reasons.

1) He gained zero home field advantage from Roger Dean Stadium. (No surprise there, right?). Per MILB.com, his home OPS was 1.049, and on the road it was 1.272. Yes, 1.272.

2) Walker was getting better as the season progressed. In his first month at Palm Beach he hit .333/.474/.600.
In his second month he batted .407/.477/.759. Yes, that’s 1.236.

3) In Low-A, Jordan Walker’s plate discipline was almost as impressive as his power. He walked 18 times while fanning just 21 — and three of those K’s came against DeGrom and Syndergaard in their rehab appearances. In June, Jordan fanned just 14% of the time, to go with a .352 isolated slugging. That’s not supposed to happen.

4) The exit velocities for Walker were extraordinary. The first professional pitch he saw, he drove it out of the park at 109.8 miles per hour. A week later he homered at 111.1 MPH. Two days after that he allegedly hit a groundout in excess of 116, but color me dubious on that one. Anyway, the Stone Mountain Sledgehammer crushed the horsehide all year.

—————————————

I would trade Jordan Walker for fellow prospect Bobby Witt, Jr. And I would trade him for Adley Rutschman. But I wouldn’t trade Walker for anyone else in the minors; he’s gonna hit and hit and hit, and based on what I’ve seen (and on Walker’s brains, temperament, and work ethic) I think he’ll be a good defensive corner outfielder and a good baserunner.

[Bob Reed]

36. Jose Suarez
The 16-year-old Dominican Summer League corner outfielder started the year disastrously by fanning 14 times in 33 trips to the plate, with just a single base on balls. From that point on, he hit .298/.459/.404 with 16 walks and 17 strikeouts. In the DSL that would equate to a 151 wRC+. Suarez only homered once, but he’s very young and well-built for future power at 6’2″ and 200 lbs.

37. Noah Mendlnger
Diminutive 2nd/3rd baseman signed as an undrafted free agent out of Georgia College And State University this year and was sent straight to Low-A, where he hit .275/.420/.363 in precisely 100 plate appearances. His two main virtues? He was just 20 years of age, which is perfect for Palm Beach. And he drew 18 walks against only 14 whiffs.

38. Felix Taveras
Other posters have brought up the 18-year-old DSL outfielder before, so not much for me to add. Except this, maybe: From August 11-October 2, Taveras batted a robust .322/.381/.621. He’s a year and a half older than Suarez, but IF he can retain most of his late-season power splurge as he moves through the minors, he’ll play in The Show.

39. Maycol Justo
Really, really diminutive shortstop (listed at 5’10” and just 141 lbs.) was 18 in the DSL this year and batted .331/.423/.404. But better than that, over his final 77 PA’s the switch-hitter struck out only 6 times versus 11 walks while posting a slash line of .355/.455/.452. There usually isn’t much reason to mention anyone over 17 in the DSL, but as we all know, the stateside Cardinal minor league teams were incredibly dreadful in 2021, and a big part of that was the nightmarish lack of pitching depth — and hitting depth. Hence, older DSL guys get atypical attention from me this year.

40. Luis Pino
Oh look, another DSL outfielder. (At least this one is 17.) Pino fanned 30% of the time and only stole one base all season, so there are red flags to be sure. But he did show some pop, with a .171 isolated slugging, and he is just 17. Fairly prominent bonus guy. Did I mention he’s 17?

[Bob Reed]

After the trade deadline in 2021, the cubs went 20-36 and were outscored by a stupefying total of 104 runs. They’d need three Marcus Stromans just to get to .500, in my unhumble opinion. It’s still an awful roster right now. (Just like the Texas Rangers and their big improvements, we gotta keep the starting point ever in mind.)

And moreover, I think Mr. Stroman may be overvalued in some corners of the internet. Here are the 2022 Steamer projections for Stro and Steven Matz:

M.S. 4.09 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 188 IP, 3.0 WAR
S.M. 3.91 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 161 IP, 2.5 WAR

So, at least as far as one forecasting model is concerned, either Marcus Stroman is a radical overpay, or Steven Matz is a terrific bargain. Or both.

[Bob Reed]

Let’s see who can ace the Edwin Nunez Quiz.

Which number among these is his 2021 innings total, which is earned runs, which is walks, which is strikeouts, and which is wild pitches plus hit batters?

52, 59, 56, 65, 54

The sad answer of course is that it doesn’t matter which specifically is which, when the numbers are that nightmarish. I know, he’s very young, but to me Edwin Dalkowski Nunez is not currently a baseball prospect. What he is, is a human being who can throw stuff hard while wearing a baseball uniform.

———————————–

This isn’t a guy who merely needs to improve. To have any professional future at all, he needs to be completely taken apart and put back together again. And that is so, so difficult.

Much like Josh Baez and his .158 batting average, or Tre Fletcher and his 40% strikeout rate, I don’t think it’s possible to find an MLB player, past or present, with a minor league season as bad as those guys in his past. I hate being such a fatalist, but we have to take the bad with the good. The reason Jordan Walker should be universally lauded as one of the top 3-5 prospects in the entire sport, is the same as the reason the aforementioned trio are in a lot of trouble. Precedent.

[Bob Reed]

Jon Gray was a wise guy to avoid, I think. Here are his career splits.

Home 4.54 ERA
Road 4.65 ERA

Home .737 OPS allowed
Road .765 OPS

It confounds common sense, but the guy really was no more effective away from Coors — if anything he was worse.

I like the Matz signing quite a lot. At just 11 mil per year, I wouldn’t have minded 5 or even 6 years. Lefties tend to age well.

[Bob Reed]

16. Connor Thomas
Perhaps the best pitching prospect nobody is talking about. The little lefty was just 22 on Opening Day and posted a 3.10 ERA at Triple-A Memphis across 100+ innings. But better still, he had a dazzling 2.22 ERA over his final dozen starts (65 IP, 61/18 K/BB, and loads of ground balls). If he threw 2-3 MPH harder he’d be a top 70-80 prospect. As is, I have him 8th among Redbirds and 150-200 overall.

17. Patrick Romeri
Was 19 at Palm Beach (now Low-A of course) and posted league-average offensive numbers. Not special for a corner outfielder, to be sure. But his overall .718 OPS is misleading in my opinion, due to the Roger Dean Stadium Effect. Romeri’s road OPS was a solid .783 — and moreover, his combined Aug./Sept. OPS topped .800. At 6’3″ and 195, he’s got a good build add power down the line. Real sleeper.

18. Freddy Pacheco
This may be a bit of a reach, especially for a relief-only guy, but “the fight doctor” was so effective upon his promotion(s) to AA and AAA, I thought he warranted this type of placement. In his 23 innings versus the upper minors, Freddy fanned 38, walked 9, and permitted just 8 base knocks. Yeah, 8. But then, he’s always been hard to hit. At 6 professional stops, opponents have batted between .100 and .188 against him. Will still be just 23 on opening Day, 2022.

19. Tink Hence
Now this guy on the other hand might be a starter someday. Listed at 6’1″ and 175, he’s cut from *roughly* the same cloth as Carlos Martinez or Jordan Hicks, but might in some ways have more polish than those guys at the same age. Fanned 34% in his micro-sample of 2021, while walking a mere 7%. Impressive markers for a professional 18-year-old, regardless of competition level. Was an extreme flyball guy in his handful of innings, and I like extremes.

20. Gordon Graceffo
Speaking of extremes, GG has allowed 1 home run in his last 121 innings, across college, low-A, and summer league competition. He’s got the ideal pitcher’s build at 6’4″ and 210, and fanned 37 in just 26 innings for Palm Beach this season, while getting gobs of groundouts as well. If he stays healthy, I see a Gregersonesque career as his median outcome, and that’s dandy by my lights. Absolute best case? He stays a starter and becomes maybe Brandon Webb Lite. Which is to say, Dakota Hudson Redux.

[Bob Reed]

I am overjoyed.

I can easily think of 15-20 knuckleheaded Shildt moves during his tenure — I mean, moves that other managers do not make, ever. Some of the moves undermined team success, and some of them undermined player health. For example, basics like batting order composition and giving players occasional days off, were both seemingly beyond Shildt’s capabilities. After four years he wasn’t improving one jot in these matters.

But this is still surprising, given how well the club played down the stretch. Very glad to see it, though. Stubby Clapp has a resume vastly superior to Shildt’s when Shildt took over.

So I say give Stubby a shot.

[Bob Reed]

“They hit more homers on the road because the parks are smaller. Its all relative. If you move the walls in more of our opponents balls are going to be flying out too.”

So it would seem. But if the parks are smaller on the road, then shouldn’t Cardinal pitchers allow a bunch more homers on the road than they do at home? (They don’t.)

From 2017-today, Redbird pitchers have permitted 350 home homers and 373 on the road, for a negligible difference of less than 7%.

Cardinal batters on the other hand have hit 354 homers at Busch, but smacked 478(!) elsewhere. So in five years of road games across a wide variety of ballparks, the club has proven itself much better than the opposition at going deep.

—————————

We see that, at least in terms of home runs, at Busch the Birds have quite clearly been operating at a home field disadvantage. And in my opinion that’s primarily because opposing lineups are considerably more left-handed than our own — and Busch 3 is notoriously tough on righty power. Busch hurts our hitters much more than the opposing hitters.

Therefore, bring in the left field wall. Nowhere else. Just left field. I believe it’ll help the hometown nine much more than their opponents, and I think five seasons of home run totals support that opinion.

[Author]

Posts