Alec Burleson

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  • #186575
    gscottar
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    When both Carlson and O’Neill are activated the most logical thing to do would be option Noot to Memphis and DFA Dickerson. As for Burleson, he deserves to come up but it will take another injury or a big slump by Yepez. His real shot will be 2023 when Dickerson and Pujols are no longer on the roster.

    #186587
    mudville
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    Sosa put up some impressive offensive numbers when he first came up. So did Nootbaar. Something similar is going on with Yepez and Donovan. It’s too early to say that these players are in the Majors to stay. They’re both eventually going to hit a slump (even Nolan Arenado can hit a slump). When that happens, how long it takes them to return to being productive will tell the tale about them.

    Nootbaar will be sent down when O’Neill and Carlson return. But, IMO, he still has a future in the Majors.

    I don’t see the front office cutting Dickerson. For one thing, they just signed him. And secondly, look how long they kept Brett Cecil around. Cecil was not just a lousy pitcher. He was downright toxic, IMO. Our front office does not like to own up to their failures with regard to signing free agents, so I believe there’s not much chance of them cutting Dickerson.

    #186599
    sjeff70
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    Yea Nootbar, like PDJ, hasn’t been able to make the adjustment to what the pitchers are doing to him. Good pitchers will attack hitters according to the batter’s weakness and their approach at the plate. Good hitters will then realize and adjust to how pitchers are attacking them and the whole cycle begins again.

    Yepez and Donavan are in adjustment mode. Scouts develop a “book” on rookies and then their weaknesses are exploited.

    #186606
    gscottar
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    Cecil was signed to a much longer contract than Dickerson so it is difficult to compare the two. I agree the Cardinals don’t like to acknowledge mistakes but they did eventually cut Greg Holland on his one year deal so they could do the same with Dickerson.

    #186609
    Cardinals27
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    I think Burleson deserves a chance while O’Neill and Carlson recover from injury.
    In addition, a demotion of either of the 2 injured outfielders isn’t out of the question. If Oli is truly interested in a team first, Burleson should be given a chance. And Dickerson hasn’t hit anything to warrant the playing time he is receiving.

    #186615
    Brian Walton
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    sjeff70 said:

    Scouts develop a “book” on rookies and then their weaknesses are exploited.

    Scouts develop a book on players in the minors and their tendencies are already well known by the time they reach the majors. Today’s analytic world is also far more sophisticated than what was in place previously. No one is an unknown.

    P.S. This doesn’t mean rookies can’t and won’t have highs and lows.

    #186618
    Brian Walton
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    C27 said:

    If Oli is truly interested in a team first, Burleson should be given a chance.

    The manager does not set the roster. His job is to win today with the players he has now. Double that for a rookie skipper with no track record.

    #186623
    blingboy
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    I think it does take some time, once the noob reaches the bigs, for opponents to translate that “book” into pitching and defensive tactics to be employed with the personal they have.

    #186631
    Cardinals27
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    I am hopeful that they add Burleson. If they can demote Dejong, then possibly they’d decide to add Burleson. Not sure how they’d fit him into the 40 man roster though without a 60 day do stint for someone.

    #186632
    bccran
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    Free Woodford and Burleson.

    #186633
    CardsFanInChiTown
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    The Cards are going to need at least one top starter for 2023 or at the deadline, I don’t see them paying for a top tier FA. The “depth” will organically figure itself out.

    #186638
    Bob Reed
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    The thing about Burleson –both now and on the day he was drafted — is the intoxicating appeal of his power/contact combination. According to the numbers at the Fangraphs website, there are 1,084 minor league batters this year with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. What follows is a list of all those batters (just the guys age-appropriate for their level) with at least a .240 isolated slugging, who are also striking out less than 20% of the time:

    1) Alec Burleson .270 isolated slugging and a 14.3% K rate
    2) Gunnar Henderson .243 isolated slugging and 16.8% K rate
    3) Logan O’Hoppe .243 isolated slugging with a 15.1% K rate

    And there’s your list. I was originally going to make the cutoff .250 on the ISO, but a list with just one name feels a bit ridiculous and contrived. In any case, Burleson easily qualifies by both standards as you can see. As for the other two, O’Hoppe is an overlooked backstop prospect who seems to be having his big breakout season, and infielder Gunnar Henderson (just 20 and dominating Double-A) might be the very best prospect in the sport right now — including Adley Rutschman and everyone else.

    With average corner outfield defense, Burleson sneaks into the tail end of an overall top 100 prospect list for me. Probably somewhere in the 75-90 range, which means I expect a 6-8 WAR career for the 23-year-old. Not dazzling but still valuable.

    I know this sounds like a copout, but I see reasonable arguments for both sides, re whether to call “Burley” up or not. He’s likely an upgrade over Dickerson and the team needs every single win…but I’d like to see Alec get another 120-150 regular at-bats in AAA, just to polish all his skills and let the league make whatever adjustments it can, to his hitting. I’d like to feel just a little more certain that he does indeed have a Yepez-quality bat to go with somewhat better fielding & running. (I love Juan with a bat in his hands, but he’s a DH all the way per every piece of available info, plus the eye test.)

    #186639
    blingboy
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    I’ve been waiting for for somebody to mention Gorman’s .526 BAbip.

    #186642
    bccran
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    Bob –

    Burleson has had 346 plate appearances at AAA. Plenty of time to make pitching adjustments?

    #186667
    Bob Reed
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    Bob –
    Burleson has had 346 plate appearances at AAA. Plenty of time to make pitching adjustments?

    Could be, cranny. Could be.
    But with Alec just two months into his 2nd pro season, I still think he might be able to work on the fielding/baserunning aspects a bit more, before the Big Promotion. But as I mentioned before, I’m not militant about it. (Unlike most baseball matters.)

    ——————————–

    “I’ve been waiting for somebody to mention Gorman’s .526 BABIP.”

    Indeed, bling. The archetypical unsustainable stat.
    But young Mr. Gorman is also walking much more and whiffing less than he was in AAA Memphis this year. That’s what has impressed me the most — well, that and his nearly .300 isolated slugging for the MLB Birds.

    As for what BABIP we should expect going forward, there are ZiPS and Steamer rest-of-season projections available at Fangraphs, and they forecast quite pedestrian BABIPs of .294 and .304, respectively. But despite this skepticism, each projection system still thinks very highly of Gorman in general. The ZiPS projection is 4.0 WAR per 600 PAs for the remainder of 2022, and Steamer isn’t far behind at 3.5 WAR/600. And this, for a guy in his age 21/22 season. Not bad for Fangraphs’ #55 prospect.

    #186682
    Brian Walton
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    #188187
    bccran
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    Sorry to do this, but Burleson is still raking. Hit his 13th and 14th home runs last night and now has 49 RBI. In only
    231 PAs. His line – .330/.364/.577/.940.

    Down and dirty ball player like Donovan. Donovan only had 198 AAA PAs.

    #188189
    forsch31
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    If Burleson could play good 2B or SS, I would be all for calling him up. Since our current OFs are all hitting around .300 over the last 30 days, let him stay in AAA until he is needed or until 1 or them gets traded.

    #188191
    stlcard25
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    Burleson a younger, lefty Luke Voit? I really like his bat, and his arm. Sort of like Donovan, I think he’s gonna be limited by his ability to play the field well. But with the DH around, he looks to have a future in St Louis.

    #188194
    Brian Walton
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    Not only that, but Dickerson has begun his rehab. When he is ready, someone already on the roster is going down (Yepez perhaps?). There is still no place for Burleson yet on the StL roster. That will change in time.

    #188197
    Trump
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    This is a great problem to have. Could start for many MLB teams. With the injuries that seem to always occur, he will be up in due time.

    #188198
    Bob Reed
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    “Burleson a younger, lefty Luke Voit? I really like his bat, and his arm. Sort of like Donovan, I think he’s gonna be limited by his ability to play the field well. But with the DH around, he looks to have a future in St Louis.”

    Intriguing idea, 25. But it’s so hard to compare anyone to Voit, since Voit violated tradition by just hitting better and better the higher he rose through the minors. I see Burly as quite similar to a different current major leaguer, a lefty-hitting outfielder — best when used primarily in a platoon scenario — who posted a dandy 11.5 WAR from age 25-29 (2.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances). I am talking about this guy: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml

    Question is, given the roster composition (majors & minors) and the team needs, would you swap Burly or Yepez for a mere reliever? Assuming, let’s say, the reliever has 3+ years of control remaining and a multi-year track record of effectiveness. Dillon Tate would sort of fit that model, I think. (I don’t believe Nootbaar + a sweetener gets you that type of reliever. But I do like Noot enough for a 4th/5th Redbird outfielder going forward.)

    #188200
    bccran
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    Maybe I’m biased, but I see Burleson as a better option against RHP than Dickerson, Nootbaar, Yepez, and certainly Pujols.

    #188201
    Bob Reed
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    Agreed, cranny, but with the exception of Yepez. Juan hit righties better than lefties last year across AA/AAA, and he’s hitting righties much, much harder than southpaws so far in the majors (OPS gap of over 250 points).

    I do think Burly would be quite fine versus MLB righties, probably about as stellar as Yepez has so far (.287/.336/.485). The other thing about Burly, he’ll never win a Gold Glove but at least he’s an actual outfielder. It borders on unkind, putting Yepez out there to embarrass himself.

    #188203
    Brian Walton
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    Since Nootbaar is already in Memphis, he isn’t in the way of Burleson. So it gets back to cutting ties with either Dickerson or Pujols. We know Albert isn’t going anywhere. Dickerson is starting his rehab tonight, so we will see what happens.

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