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Arenado, career, bases empty: .818 OPS
Career, with men on base: .948 OPS
Career, men in scoring position: 1.004 OPS
Spectacularly clutch, no question.Other “clutch” variations:
Low leverage: .820 career OPS
High leverage: .907 career OPS
Again, quite clutch.But for his career he has NOT hit well in innings 7-9, and he has also underperformed in the playoffs. So pick the “clutch” stats of your choice.
Bob –
Burleson has had 346 plate appearances at AAA. Plenty of time to make pitching adjustments?Could be, cranny. Could be.
But with Alec just two months into his 2nd pro season, I still think he might be able to work on the fielding/baserunning aspects a bit more, before the Big Promotion. But as I mentioned before, I’m not militant about it. (Unlike most baseball matters.)——————————–
“I’ve been waiting for somebody to mention Gorman’s .526 BABIP.”
Indeed, bling. The archetypical unsustainable stat.
But young Mr. Gorman is also walking much more and whiffing less than he was in AAA Memphis this year. That’s what has impressed me the most — well, that and his nearly .300 isolated slugging for the MLB Birds.As for what BABIP we should expect going forward, there are ZiPS and Steamer rest-of-season projections available at Fangraphs, and they forecast quite pedestrian BABIPs of .294 and .304, respectively. But despite this skepticism, each projection system still thinks very highly of Gorman in general. The ZiPS projection is 4.0 WAR per 600 PAs for the remainder of 2022, and Steamer isn’t far behind at 3.5 WAR/600. And this, for a guy in his age 21/22 season. Not bad for Fangraphs’ #55 prospect.
The thing about Burleson –both now and on the day he was drafted — is the intoxicating appeal of his power/contact combination. According to the numbers at the Fangraphs website, there are 1,084 minor league batters this year with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. What follows is a list of all those batters (just the guys age-appropriate for their level) with at least a .240 isolated slugging, who are also striking out less than 20% of the time:
1) Alec Burleson .270 isolated slugging and a 14.3% K rate
2) Gunnar Henderson .243 isolated slugging and 16.8% K rate
3) Logan O’Hoppe .243 isolated slugging with a 15.1% K rateAnd there’s your list. I was originally going to make the cutoff .250 on the ISO, but a list with just one name feels a bit ridiculous and contrived. In any case, Burleson easily qualifies by both standards as you can see. As for the other two, O’Hoppe is an overlooked backstop prospect who seems to be having his big breakout season, and infielder Gunnar Henderson (just 20 and dominating Double-A) might be the very best prospect in the sport right now — including Adley Rutschman and everyone else.
With average corner outfield defense, Burleson sneaks into the tail end of an overall top 100 prospect list for me. Probably somewhere in the 75-90 range, which means I expect a 6-8 WAR career for the 23-year-old. Not dazzling but still valuable.
I know this sounds like a copout, but I see reasonable arguments for both sides, re whether to call “Burley” up or not. He’s likely an upgrade over Dickerson and the team needs every single win…but I’d like to see Alec get another 120-150 regular at-bats in AAA, just to polish all his skills and let the league make whatever adjustments it can, to his hitting. I’d like to feel just a little more certain that he does indeed have a Yepez-quality bat to go with somewhat better fielding & running. (I love Juan with a bat in his hands, but he’s a DH all the way per every piece of available info, plus the eye test.)
I’ve ripped on Marmol repeatedly (and justifiably) but his handling of the pitchers today was exemplary. (Now watch, he’ll try and stretch Pallante out into a starter and ruin him. The guy was barely better than mediocre in Double-A last year as a starter with an ERA just under 4.00, so there is zero chance that he’s an MLB-quality starter without many, many more minor league outings — if ever.)
A very nice victory, and I kinda hope Goldy does NOT break the record for Redbird XBH in May. If he stays where he is he’ll be forever linked with Stan & Albert, and that’s waaay cooler.
Wonderful win. And a Woodford sighting! (Gave up his first homer in nearly 200 batters, but otherwise looked like the quite solid major league pitcher he’s been since the start of last year.)
Gorman batting 2nd against righties would be fine by me, at least until N.L. pitchers begin to figure him out. Love the combo of Goldy & Arenado in the 3/4 slots.
And kudos to Matt Liberatore — those grade school friends put on a show for the fans today. Making memories.
“Well Bob I’m not gonna argue with your numbers, not sure where you got them but I’ll give you that. But in the games I have watched him play, I’ve never seen him hit that well up the lineup. I’m one of Bader’s biggest fans but I also don’t view him as a great guy with runners in scoring position which should be taken into account with runners closer to top.”
I got the Bader numbers from his “splits” page at Baseball-Reference. Here’s a link: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=baderha01&year=Career&t=b
Among the more interesting tidbits, Bader has a career OPS of .522 when behind in the count and 1.048 when ahead. He actually has a better OPS with runners in scoring position than bases empty, but not in any dramatic meaningful way (.763-to-.736). And he has a robust career OPS away from Busch of .821, and a rather pathetic .640 at home. Either he’s hitting the weight room too hard before home games, or carousing too much on Laclede’s Landing until the wee hours, or something even less likely. But there must be something besides the ballpark that’s severely suppressing his home hitting. The ballpark is part of it, no doubt. But as Paul Harvey might say, it can’t be the whole story.
“Well Bob, if you look at numbers putting Bader higher vs lefties makes sense. But watching the games, when they have chosen to move him up when facing lefties, he hasn’t done that well. Bader has enough at bats now that you can look at some history with guys and make that decision based on that more than just strictly lefty vs righty.”
I appreciate the response, Willie. I don’t have a way to look up splits-within-splits to see how Bader has fared this year against southpaws at specific spots in the order. But I do have his career numbers for the top of the lineup.
For Bader’s career, when hitting 1st or 2nd in the order, the combined batting line:
.274/.346/.531
So Harry quite clearly has had no trouble batting at or near the top. In fact he has excelled at it. Anyway, the broader point is that Bader shouldn’t hit in the same exact lineup spot v. both lefties and righties. It’s silly. As silly as Albert batting cleanup tonight. Ignoring significant platoon advantages and disadvantages when filling out a lineup card is managerial malfeasance.
Bader 9th v. righties, yes. Of course, like tonight. I agree, guys.
But Bader v. lefties should be no lower than 6th. Or maybe, just maybe he could hit alongside Edman at the top of the order, so Goldschmidt & Arenado could both bat in RBI positions. Because they have long, long track records of both hitting much better with men on base than bases empty. But I guess batting them 3rd and 4th somehow wouldn’t be “analytical” enough for Mr. Metrics Matchups, the boy wonder manager.
“Pujols DH vs a righty. I guess Dickerson was a waste of money.”
And Albert is batting cleanup. Batting cleanup, against a very good righty.
I have just about given up on Marmol at this point. Bader bottom of the order against lefties, Goldschmidt hitting in a non-RBI slot, even when on a tremendous hot streak. And Albert Pujols, with his .500 OPS versus righties over the past two seasons, hitting cleanup against a righty. Good God.
Prior to 2021, Seattle had won the trade.
Two months ago, the Cards had won the trade, because a star is more valuable by far than a merely solid starting pitcher.
And now, it’s To Be Determined.With better hitting coaches, I truly believe Tyler wouldn’t have scuffled so badly prior to 2021, or struggled terribly this season. As evidence, during the 2018 campaign, Tyler was one of the Cardinals who immediately blossomed as soon as John Mabry was replaced midseason as Redbird batting coach by the Two Old Guys.
2018, with Mabry, 92 OPS+
2018, w/Old Guys, 130 OPS+———————————
For whatever it’s worth, Marcell Ozuna and Kolten Wong also experienced similar, immediate transformations back in 2018.
Ozuna/Mabry: 92 OPS+
Ozuna/Oldsters: 133 OPS+Kolten/Mabry: 91 OPS+
Kolten/Two Old Guys Fired Soon Thereafter Because They Don’t Speak Fluent “Metrics”: 127 OPS+I’m very happy for Angel Rondon, who came through with 5 stellar innings today. The 24-year-old has had a bumpy ride since being named organizational Pitcher of the Year for his excellent age-21 season in AA.
I hope he’s given the opportunity to keep starting, whether in the majors or minors. He has a sound track record for his pro career, and appears to have the minimum daily requirement of modern fastball giddyup: per the Gameday website he hit 94.6 and 94.4 today, and was 93.2 on his 78th pitch, and 91.9 on his 85th.
Guys like Rondon, and Connor Thomas, and of course Jake Woodford sometimes just need to be trusted and given the chance to struggle a bit, before becoming the solid #4 MLB starters (or maybe a bit better?) that’s inside of them. That’s what’s happened with Austin Gomber in Colorado, as he’s settled into a 5-5 1/2 inning role with a slightly-better-than-average ERA+ of 105 last year and 103 so far in 2022. Not exciting, I realize. But very useful.
And just to add one of my patented killjoy observations, I do NOT want to see Cardinal position players pitching, ever since Felipe Lopez injured himself pitching in the 20-inning debacle versus the Mets about 15 years ago.
“Managers do not have as much autonomy as they did in the old days. I suspect the rotation, for example, is more decided by analysts and the front office than the manager. I cannot prove that, just as no one here knows how much control Marmol has been given.”
I don’t disagree with one word of the above, Brian.
But I’m not just talking about Woodford and the rotation. Maybe the shifting of Hicks to a starter’s role was made collectively by many individuals at various levels. (And I agree 100% with that! But do it at AAA for 6 or 8 starts before force-feeding Hicks into an MLB rotation.)What I’m talking about is Marmol’s refusal to give Jake Woodford any meaningful MLB responsibilities whatsoever. Not a swingman, or long man, or high-leverage multi-inning arm. Not even a mid-leverage helper out of the pen. Nope. First he was a leper, sitting for two weeks despite no reported physical ailment; then he was treated like a garbageman at the end of his MLB journey, tossing an inning here or there in zero-leverage spots.
Just a reminder: last year Jake Woodford had a respectable 3.99 ERA, and 3.61 over the 2nd half. And in September/October he made 5 starts and held batters to a line of .226/.286/.275, shutting out the (hated, rival, stinky) Brewers for 5 innings — twice.
And Marmol was here! He saw all of this, as a member of Mike Shildt’s staff. So what the #@$% turned him against Woodford so completely?
Are you suggesting, Brian, that Oli Marmol isn’t the one who decided to transition Jake Woodford from last year’s swingman/starter into the mop-up garbagetime guy he became this year?
I always give the manager all of the blame/credit for pitcher roles and batting orders and other day-to-day minutiae. No matter how much input they may get one way or another from outside influences, the buck still stops with them — for good or ill.
Just like when Matheny had the Dexter Fowler & Harry Bader conflict in 2018. Matheny gets the blame for taking so long before benching Fowler in mid-June. But Matheny also gets the credit for finally doing so — unlike Shildt who reversed course and inexcusably re-instated Fowler and dislodged Bader from the starting lineup.
Call it what it is. Nine baserunners and a wild pitch, resulting in 4 earned runs (and men on base when he left) in 4 2/3 innings is a terrible performance.
I expect Matt will be better next time…but of course, with a competent manager it never would have come to this. Because with a legitimate MLB manager, Woodford would have taken that start tonight, because he would have already been stretched out as a swingman — given what he did last year overall, and his dominant September as an MLB starter, and his excellent Spring Training.
When a manager does something really, really stupid, it tends to resonate over time, ending in lots of little or large troubles.
On the topic of Graceffo, one thing that stands out (among many) is his ability so far to attack both lefty & righty bats with equal aplomb. Per his splits at milb.com, lefty lumber is hitting just .138 while righties have yet to homer in more than 100 at-bats. And according to Baseball-Reference, with runners on base, batters are hitting a meager .140/.173/.180. Yeah, they are slugging .180.
I don’t think I’d promote Masyn Winn quite yet, as he just turned 20 a couple months ago. But Graceffo is 22, and certainly doesn’t appear to have anything left to learn at Peoria. (And speaking of Peoria, it’s a pitcher’s park but GG has a distinctly lower ERA on the road at 0.64 across five starts.)
I suppose that one man’s nitpick is another man’s legitimate complaint, but this is at least the third time this year that Marmol has batted Harry Bader 9th against a lefty pitcher. Which of course makes zero sense, given that Bader has slugged nearly .500 against them for his career.
Moreover, the Birds are on the road right now, and Bader away from Busch has been an excellent hitter for his MLB career as well, slashing .276/.343/.474. Add it all up, and by my back-of-the-napkin estimate, Bader on the road versus southpaws probably has a career OPS around .900.
And he’s hitting 9th tonight. To me, 6th or even 5th would make sense. (Now watch, he’ll go 0-5 with a golden sombrero.)
“Unless Walker turns out to be a Big Papi. I wonder what Walker thinks about playing third base?”
I don’t expect Walker to become a profanity-spouting, pear-shaped drug cheat. But if he stays healthy I do expect him to probably be 1/2 Matt Holliday and 1/2 Frank Robinson, which would be a big star of course. For their careers, Holliday was basically a 4-WAR per full season guy and Robinson was an amazing 6-WAR talent per 155 games. Both of them were terrific power-hitting corner outfielders who batted righty and didn’t hurt their teams in the field or on the bases, generally speaking.
If you asked Jordan Walker tomorrow about what position he wants to play in the majors, he’d just say “wherever they want me to play,” I’m sure. (His defensive numbers at the hot corner are quite poor this year [12 errors and just 2 double plays], and also were not good last season, so even if the two Nolans were not around, I doubt that 3rd base would be in Jordan’s long-term future.)
Huge kudos to Giovanny Gallegos. Faced five men and fanned them all — and this, after entering the game with the tying run on base and one out in the 8th. Truly dominant, and clutch as clutch gets.
I really, really, really do not understand why so many Redbird fans have violently turned against Gallegos in recent days. Yeah, he screwed up and didn’t cover first base. (But that play would never have happened in the first place if Arenado just would have made the throw to retire the previous batter.) And then he gave up a homer to Pete Alonso the other night. His first homer allowed this season.
Gio has pitched 184 innings for the Cards since the start of 2019, with a 2.83 ERA. Here’s a list of all MLB relievers since 2019 to throw at least 160 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA: Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Liam Hendriks, and Giovanny Gallegos. That’s it, honest. Four guys.
I’m very happy for Ryan Helsley and overjoyed for how tremendously he’s pitched so far this season. But Gallegos is and should remain the closer, particularly given how great he’s pitched on the 2nd day of back-to-backs, throughout his career.
…and Tink threw a real nice debut, with just one hit in three innings (bunt single) and five whiffs to one walk. There was one cheap run — the bunt, a steal, another steal, and an RBI groundout — but all in all a nearly peerless performance for the young man.
Bravo, Markevian.
“You get what you pay for. The Mets paid up this offseason, Canha, Bassit, Scherzer and Starling Marte are just a few I remember; STL got Mutz, Pujols and Dickerson. I’m not surprised they are the better team.”
The Mets signed Buck Showalter. The Cards hired Boy Wonder. There’s your difference.
Albert Pujols has been EXACTLY what he was last year — he kills lefties and stinks against righties. It’s the kid manager who has mis-used him so badly that Albert appears to be just a mediocre hitter now. Dickerson hasn’t hit, but Yepez has made up for that. Yes, Matz has disappointed. No arguing that point.
Can they call up the Memphis manager and put Marmol on the Disabled List for brain freeze?
The team could use a shakeup, but really they just need to put the best players on the roster, and use the roster in an intelligent fashion. In other words bring back Woodford and keep him stretched out, pitching multiple innings in meaningful situations; send Hicks down to be a starter in AAA and improve his stamina/skillset; stop letting Albert Pujols face more righties than lefties; and don’t play guys at positions that are significantly beyond their defensive capabilities — no Donovan at shortstop and no Yepez in the outfield.
You are welcome. 😉
Albert Pujols is now 4-for-36 versus righty pitchers this year, with a sub-.400 OPS. (It was .500 last year, and hasn’t been league average since the Obama administration.) He is batting .474 against southpaws but unfortunately he’s had 70% of his plate appearances against righties — including the killer double play he grounded into today, in the 10th inning, with two men on base.
Our boy manager needs a lesson in math. Oh, wait, never mind. He’s gonna use metrics and matchups this year! Wasn’t that what we were told, over and over and over again?
Jordan Walker will be a corner outfielder at the MLB level, Ny. (Even money says he gets some work in left and right before getting promoted to Triple-A.)
Walker has the legs for left field and the rifle for right. Just my opinion: even if there were no Nolan Arenado in the organization, and no Nolan #2, I still think Jordan Walker was going to end up in the outfield so his speed and throwing arm could be used in tandem.
And I agree with you that Masyn Winn’s upside is considerable — at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Imagine Tommy Edman with a much stronger arm and a smidge more power. If the season ended now, I’d have Winn among the overall top 20-25 minor leaguers. Pretty good for a team’s 3rd-best prospect, huh?
“Maybe under the radar a little, Herrera is up to .310 at Memphis.”
Good call, grey ghost.
Since starting the season in a nasty little 3-for-17 funk with 10 K’s and zero walks, Ivan The Terrific is batting .352/.463/.574 in 67 trips to the plate — with 11 walks and just 9 whiffs. Smallish sample, but quite an impressive one nevertheless.There’s not much doubt that Herrera, Gorman, Walker, and Winn constitute the best quartet of position prospects in the minors. All very young for their leagues, all enjoying tremendous hitting success, and all but Walker with a chance to stick at up-the-middle defensive positions for at least the next 5 or 6 years.
Tonight is exactly the situation where Jake Woodford should have started — if the manager were wise. We knew about Wainwright’s potential unavailability way back on Friday, and yet Woodford was used in a lengthy and largely pointless mop-up appearance in a game on Saturday.
We shoulda got Woodford tonight. It was just about the easiest managerial decision you could want. A relatively young starter with an MLB track record of solid performance, and in fact outstanding performance last year in September, and in Spring Training, and so far this season.
Instead we get a failed starter (who it must be said might be a pretty good reliever in the long run). I wish we knew for sure if Marmol is just unfathomably stupid when it comes to Woodford, or if this shift to the “worthless mop-up guy” role is an act of pure vindictiveness. It really can’t be overstated much, how loopy this is. Real managers do not do this.
For example, with all of LaRussa’s grudges and eccentricities, he never mis-utilized an established MLB pitcher like this, in all his years under the Arch. Can’t think of any Redbird managers who have, actually. Converting Kyle McClellan from reliever to starter was misguided, bound to fail — but at least the manager was giving the pitcher a chance, a challenge to exceed reasonable expectations.
What Marmol has done with Woodford borders on unethical. It’s certainly incompetent.
