Bob Reed

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  • in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #73486
    Bob Reed
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    61) Ramon Mendoza

    62) Juan Yepez

    63) Carlos Soto

    64) John Nogowski

    Outstanding plate discipline, excellent defender at first base, but so, so old. On the other hand, Matt Carpenter was a real old guy with great strikezone control, so….

    65) Adanson Cruz
    Has a good glove reputation in the outfield, and logged a 145 wRC+ at age 17 in the DSL. Yes, the DSL again! He strikes out too much, but we’re voting in the 60’s here. I have him in my personal top 40 or so.

    in reply to: 2018 MLB Awards thread #73477
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    Thanks for all the updates, Brian! Good for Kolten.

    Also, the numbers you quoted, which appear to be DRS, are only a part of the SABR Defensive Index, which makes up the other 25 percent of the Gold Glove Award scoring.

    The Bader numbers I quoted (and those for the 3 GG finalists) were an average of three publicly available defensive analyses, and so I assumed they would indeed incorporate DRS of course, but also UZR and some other defensive yardstick(s). I wanted the maximum cross section of analytic views.

    And maybe I’m picking nits, but I don’t think I would describe Bader’s 2018 CF defense as “very good.” By my lights, other than Jason Heyward’s wonderful 2015 season, Harrison’s was the best defensive season by any Cardinal outfielder in 40+ years. I came along a touch too late for Curt Flood, but I think 2018 Bader beat the best of Van Slyke and McGee and Lankford and Brian Jordan and Edmonds, et. al..

    I would characterize Bader’s CF defense in 2018 as tremendous — but you may be right, Brian, that the mere 66 games in CF was overly held against him. I think the voters have taken volume much more seriously since the Palmeiro debacle of 1999. (For you youngsters, later-to-be-disgraced-PED-drug-cheat Rafael Palmeiro played DH back in 1999, and had his best year as a hitter. But he also sprinkled in a couple dozen games at first base. Somehow he won the Gold Glove for the position, flummoxing informed observers. The yoters rightly received plenty of ridicule for that one.)

    in reply to: 2018 MLB Awards thread #73414
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    Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs had a terrific Bader article at the end of August. Not mere dry analysis, but good prose, and video highlights. In my biased opinion it was one of the better pieces of the year for Fangraphs — but after all they sorta owed it to Bader, having roundly ignored him up until that point, despite his leading all rookies, either league, in WAR for quite awhile. Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/harrison-bader-rookie-of-the-year/

    What you won’t find within that outstanding article is the final defensive values for Bader and the other N.L. centerfielders. So I’ll do that now.

    The runs values below reflect an average of Fangraphs, BPro, and B-Ref numbers. I have included just the 3 Gold Glove finalists, plus Harry B.

    Bader +13.5 runs
    Inciarte +13.3
    Cain +12.3
    Hamilton +6.4

    As you can see, one of these things is not like the others, and it ain’t Bader. Harrison may or may not deserve the Gold Glove this year; there’s no clear choice. But he surely belongs in the top 3. He passes the eye test, defensive metrics test, and Statcast test with flying feet.

    In a year when Redbird rookies produced more WAR than any other N.L. franchise, Bader was the best freshman on the team. It would have been nice for him to get some recognition.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #73361
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    You are correct, 25.

    The “outstanding individual performances by young guys” was what I was referencing when I said the team was the strongest ever, etc.. My phrasing should have been more clear. Sorry for the confusion, CC.

    So I guess I should elaborate a little. In the DSL there were 44 total teams. How much better than the rest were the young Cards? Among 17-and-unders, the Cards had 3 of the top 4 in the entire league in terms of wRC+ (min. 100 PA’s). In terms of 18-and-under, the Birds had 5 of the top 12.

    in reply to: World Series thread #73310
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    How can you be tired, Brian? In the front row Larry King was yelling at the ump in the 18th inning — just like he did during Babe Ruth’s 14-inning complete game.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #73306
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    56) Ramon Mendoza
    Young for the DSL at 17, Mendoza split his season between the keystone and hot corner and slashed .310/.420/.500 for a stellar 162 wRC+.

    57) Angel Rondon

    58) Juan Yepez

    59) Ludwin Jimenez

    60) Carlos Soto
    Big backstop should have gotten my vote much earlier but I simply forgot about him. Sorry, Carlos, you’re top 30-35 in the organization by my lights, if not a bit better. Soto was 18 for the first month of the season, and was an above average hitter in both the Appy and Gulf Coast Leagues in 2018. Gunned an excellent 42% of baserunners after 36% last year. Too many errors right now, but he did reduce the passed balls this year. Solid career BB/K ratio of 57/72 in 105 pro games.

    Forgive us our enthusiasm for the DSL kids, Black Hills. It was a collective great season for the pair of Redbird representative squads, and this is reflected in the number of outstanding individual performances by young guys, especially position players. Strongest by the Cards ever, and stronger by far than any other MLB organization in 2018. It’s very unlikely to ever be repeated, so let’s enjoy it while we can.

    in reply to: Worst Defense in 50 years #73114
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    In a thread that has “worst defense” in its title, it is perhaps appropriate to focus on Jose Martinez for a bit.

    (A bit later, when I get to his career WAR total, I’ve taken the average of Jose’s Fangraphs, B-Ref, and BPro numbers. Those are the only 3 publicly available WAR tallies I’m aware of, so I can think of no more thorough or fair manner of determining his MLB value so far than averaging them together.)

    As Brian mentioned, 30-year-old Jose Martinez had a very fine 125 wRC+ in 2018. He has an even better 130 for his career. For context, here are some career numbers for other active hitters, and some Hall Of Famers:

    George Brett 132
    Matt Carpenter 132
    Buster Posey 132
    Billy Williams 132
    Orlando Cepeda 131
    Anthony Rizzo 131
    Christian Yelich 130
    Yaz 130
    Nelson Cruz 129
    Justin Turner 129
    Roberto Clemente 129
    Jim Rice 128
    Dave Winfield 128
    Carlos Correa 128

    So 130 is really, really good. But we knew that already. Here’s the thing, though. Those other players, every last one of them, are or were soooooo much better than Jose Martinez at the non-hitting parts of baseball, that comparing them at all would just seem silly.

    Jose Martinez, hitting like a Hall Of Famer, has been worth 2.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances for his brief career. That’s a good player. But only a good one. And again, he’s 30 years old. This makes it extremely unlikely that he’ll get noticeably better at any aspect of the sport. In fact, the odds are he’ll decline. Maybe soon, and perhaps precipitously.

    This is not a guy who’s bat forces him to be in the lineup. It just isn’t. We’ve witnessed Peak Martinez, and he’s a bit above average on the whole. Tyler O’Neill, who slugged .700 in AAA this year and .500 in the majors, is already a much much better fielder & baserunner than Martinez. (Tiny Kingman is 54-for-64 in stolen bases since 2014.)

    If Martinez is at his best in 2019, he’s a 2.5 to 3 win player. Tyler O’Neill, even with the 40% K rate in 2018, was on a 5 WAR pace, averaging the 3 aforementioned websites. Even with that 40% K rate, he was the one who posted a solid 114 wRC+ for the Cards this year. If that K rate drops (and it should, by a lot, maybe to 30-32% based on O’Neill’s minor league track record) then O’Neill could be a star right now.

    in reply to: Worst Defense in 50 years #73104
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    What BikeMike said. Word for word.

    Trade Jose Martinez in a package deal with Hicks or Reyes or Kelly or Knizner or someone else or two, for Edwin Diaz, and the bullpen is 2-3 wins better immediately. And the infield and outfield defense improves as well. The bench hitting is distinctly weaker, but that won’t sting so bad when more than counterbalanced by the fairly massive upgrades. (How good is Diaz? Forget the saves. His road ERA, career, is 1.73 for three seasons.)

    You want a solid defense? With O’Neill in RF and Gyorko at the hot corner, every single member of the starting 8 would have had positive runs values on defense last year, if you average the Fangraphs and B-Ref numbers. Honest.

    Release Gregerson and Cecil, dump Fowler, and the 40-man is uncongested enough to grab a reliever or even two from the Japanese leagues — the one place the Cards really know how to scout, apparently.

    in reply to: Worst Defense in 50 years #73088
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    Errors are indeed ugly. But errors are only part of what determines defensive quality. Range is more important, often much more important.

    According to Baseball Prospectus the Cards had MLB’s 13th best defensive efficiency in 2018. Link:https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1905975

    Baseball-Reference uses the numbers from Baseball Info Solutions (or BIS), and they had the Birds 30 runs above average as a team, which would be roughly 10th in MLB or so. (Wong and Bader were each +19 runs, and DeJong +14.)

    But that’s not even the most optimistic evaluation. Per Fangraphs the Cards had baseball’s 5th best defense this year, at 48 runs above average.
    Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

    The Cardinals were probably the single strongest defensive team in baseball up the middle, but were generally so-so at the corners, and poor off the bench, with the worst defenders (per BIS) being Jose Martinez and Yairo Munoz at -11 runs apiece, and Dexter Fowler, Francisco Pena, and Tommy Pham all either -5 or -6 runs in 2018.

    The problem isn’t the defense. It isn’t the everyday lineup either — the Cards were 5th in the N.L. in runs per game, and just 2 runs behind the Cubs for 4th. (And the Cards were 3rd with more than 5 runs a game, behind only the Dodgers and Nationals, over the season’s second half, despite facing a LOT of excellent teams and pitchers.)

    And the rotation had the majors’ 5th best ERA. So it ain’t them.

    The bullpen was and is the problem. The only meaningful problem. The Cards’ bullpen had the 3rd worst ERA in the Senior Circuit. But much worse than that, they were tied for dead last in Win Probability Added (WPA). Their WPA was so terrible, that if they’d been merely average, the club would have won 6 more games in 2018. The Redbird pen was 6 wins below average, 11 wins worse than the Brewers, and an extraordinary 14 wins worse than the Cubs.

    Link to WPA numbers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    Bullpen. That’s the thing to fix. Not defense. Not the middle of the order. Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #72991
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    51) Derian Gonzalez

    52) Ramon Mendoza

    53) Angel Rondon

    54) Juan Yepez

    55) Ludwin Jimenez
    STL25 gave a great salespitch, to which I would only add that among the 30 DSL pitchers who were 16 or 17 this year, and threw at least 55 innings, the 16-year-old Jimenez had the highest strikeout rate with his excellent 9.81 per 9 IP. I know nothing of his repertoire, but being so young and listed at 6′ 2″ and 165, Ludwin would at least seem to have room to grow in positive ways, in both directions. Add a couple of inches and 25-30 pounds over the next few years, and he’s got the prototypical Flahertyesque pitcher physique. For whatever that’s worth.

    in reply to: Yadi Molina, 54 WAR and maybe more #72871
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    Ted Simmons suffers from Duke Snider Syndrome. The Duke Of Flatbush played the same position, at the same time, and in the same city as Mays & Mantle, and of course suffered by comparison with those twin titans of major league history. So even though Duke was and is an easy choice for the Hall, it took eleven tries for him to be voted in by the baseball writers.

    Similarly, Simba obviously pales in comparison to the greatest catcher in history, who happened to play in the same division at exactly the same time. (It doesn’t help that Simmons had a LOT of passed balls, esp. early in his career, leading to a poor defensive reputation, rightly or wrongly.)

    in reply to: Yadi Molina, 54 WAR and maybe more #72854
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    Thanks so much for all the kind words, folks!

    I should have included some links in the earlier post. Here’s the seminal 2011 Koprivica pitch-blocking article, with glowing comments from baseball analytic notables Tom Tango, Mike Fast, Harry Pavlidas, and Marc Normandin among others: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/another-one-bites-the-dust/

    And the excellent albeit excessively granular Grantland piece from 2014 by Ben Lindbergh, which includes Mitchel Lichtman’s stab at quantifying game-calling (or pitch-sequencing, if you like). https://grantland.com/features/st-louis-cardinals-yadier-molina-catcher-value-game-calling/

    I do partially share yourr misgivings about pitch-framing, BikeMike, in that it’s a shame we can’t compare current and past backstops — like Bench and Simmons. But framing numbers among modern catchers are reliable enough for me to take very seriously, especially for catchers long in the tooth like Yadi.

    Thanks again, everyone.

    in reply to: Cards From Yesteryear #72777
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    Thanks for compiling all that info, Pugs! I’m going to pass much of it along to my father, who’s old enough to regale me with stories of Stan, Red, and other Redbirds who played from the 40’s through the 60’s. (My fandom started around 1970. Unlucky me.)

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #72776
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    46) Derian Gonzalez

    47) Ramon Mendoza

    48) Julio Rodriguez

    49) Angel Rondon
    The 20-year-old posted a 2.90 ERA for Peoria this year, and his career numbers are solid as well with a strikeout per inning, a 3-1 K/BB ratio, and a 3.07 earned run average. Thanks, Dennis Johnson, for reminding me about Rondon. I saw the righty pitch this year, and shouldn’t have needed the memory jog. Stuff is fine, fastball 90-94, promising curve.

    50) Juan Yepez
    Another 20-year-old who was very good for Peoria this season — dominant actually, but only for a month, and then was no good at all for Palm Beach. But still, the Venezuelan first baseman is again just 20, and he did hold his own in full season ball at age 19 the year before. For what it’s worth, per Baseball Prospectus his baserunning & defense both improved markedly in 2018. Sort of a 1B version of Lane Thomas or Edmundo Sosa or Scott Hurst, i.e., uneven track record, but with periodic signs of real MLB potential, and needs to stay much healthier.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #72724
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    41) Joerlin De Los Santos
    Top 300 overall prospect for me, and #16 among Redbirds, DLS stole 30 bases in 64 games, posting the highest Speed Score of any Dominican Summer League 18-and-under player with a wRC+ of 150 or better. If not for Malcom Nunez, Joerlin would have received a great deal more attention this year.

    42) Scott Hurst
    Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport like the defense in both Center and Right. Looks like a prototypical 4th/5th outfielder, but he’s got to stay healthier. Likeliest outcome: Shane Robinson redux, and that’s a mighty fine bench guy for a few years.

    43) Derian Gonzalez
    Promising reliever was off to an excellent start in AAA, and had permitted just 1 hit over his previous 8 innings, when his otherwise intelligent manager left him in to throw nearly 50 pitches in one stint. And that was that. Never really healthy again until months later; missed 8 weeks on the DL in total. Candidate for the 2019 Cardinal bullpen. But then, aren’t we all?

    44) Ramon Mendoza
    Another Dominican Summer League guy, 5′ 11″ native Mexican Mendoza split his time evenly between 2nd and 3rd base, logging a tremendous 162 wRC+ at age 17 despite batting just .154 against lefties. (Ramon hits righty by the way, so this problem should not persist — at least not to this degree.)

    45) Julio Rodriguez
    Off year at the dish, but the backstop showed potential behind it once again, gunning 47% of stealers (after 48% last year) and cutting his passed balls down to a quite acceptable level. The errors have always been low, leading to a solid backup MLB projection, with the possibility for more. Turned 21 this summer and could see AA by the end of 2019. Real good sleeper.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #71987
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    Thank you, Mr. Cobb! And a belated You’re welcome, mudville.

    in reply to: Mlb updated top 100/team top 30 #71986
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    Thanks, Brian, for the link to the BTB study of Baseball America over the years. Not sure how much can be gleaned from a study that only compares BA to itself, however. While BA has improved over time, it’s difficult to say whether BA should be lauded for their more recent lists, or belittled for their earlier ones. Maybe both. Maybe neither. We can’t know, because we aren’t comparing BA’s success rate to Sickels, or Keith Law, or Baseball Prospectus, or Fangraphs, etc..

    To conclude based solely on that study that “BA is really good at finding the top players” is a little like saying “Bob Reed was really the best tennis player at Kiwanis Park on Sunday” when I was in fact the only one there, hitting the ball off a concrete wall. Each example may be both a true statement and utterly valueless.

    By the way, other Cardinals who were never BA top 100: Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Jon Jay, and Aledmys Diaz. To add to Molina, Carpenter, Haren, Lynn, Craig, Freese, DeJong, Hicks, Bader, and so far Dakota Hudson. (Last chance on Hudson, boys!)

    But the thing of it is, nearly every one of the above cited players was nowhere near BA’s top 100. They simply weren’t close at all in their evaluations.

    Anyway, thanks for the vigorous feedback, Brian and Sooner.

    in reply to: Mlb updated top 100/team top 30 #71969
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    “Outside observers place the Cardinals somewhere in the middle of the pack among MLB farm systems.”

    Sure, I don’t doubt it one jot, Brian. But isn’t it true that all of those same observers rated the Cards somewhere in the middle last year as well? And thus far I would say those folks have empirically been shown dead wrong. In fact I’d say that, despite flagging in late September, Redbird rookies like Bader, Flaherty, Hudson, Hicks, O’Neill, Munoz, Gomber, Poncedeleon and others provided the big club with as much value as any freshman group in the majors this side of Tampa, and maybe the Braves.

    A year ago one well known outside observer disagreed about the Cards being middle-of-the-pack, though. John Sickels rated the Cards’ system 8th over the winter. For what it’s worth I had them 5th. If anything we may have underestimated them.

    Quick recap time. I use a point system for prospects. A year ago, applying my point system to the prospect grades given by John Sickels, the Cards had 85 points. The top 10 were:

    Toronto 97 points
    Tampa 91
    Philly 91
    Braves 88
    Friars 86
    Cards 85
    Yanks 83
    Astros 77
    Redlegs 75
    Twins 73

    Again, that’s my point system applied to his grades. As mentioned, Sickels actually ranked the Cards a bit lower at 8th. (Sickels does not use a point system.) Translating my own grades, I had the Birds with 87 points rather than 85, obviously an inconsequential difference. And I was happy to be in the company of Sickels.

    Sickels is the only major national voice who strikes an excellent balance between detached numerical analysis of on-field minor league performance, and traditional mystical scouting. Not an ideal balance, by my lights; still too scouty on the position player side. But the best balance by far of all the prominent prospect voices.

    So what about the current farm? This year my Redbird rankings — which exclude O’Neill & Kelly, as MLB does not consider them rookies any longer — give the Cards 83 points. I expect that will trail teams like Tampa and Minnesota and Toronto and the Padres, and maybe a couple others. As you say, Brian, the Birds are bereft of truly super-elite prospects. No Vlad Juniors here. But just like last year there’s a ton of top 100-150 types down on the Cardinal farm.

    Folks, the Cards are elite again. Just like last year. When all the outside observers except one said they were not.

    Lastly, I remember your fine work, Sooner. You very thoroughly and systematically showed how much the Cardinal prospects had been underrated by BA over more than a decade, if memory serves. Man, I’d love to see a link to that thread somehow. A very large and very very belated thanks for that research you did.

    in reply to: Mlb updated top 100/team top 30 #71931
    Bob Reed
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    Thanks for the response, Brian.

    My reply would be that the Cardinal top 7 should be Reyes (#35 or so overall prospect), Montero (40), Hudson (50), Gorman (55), Knizner (65), Dylan Carlson (100 or so), and Ramon Urias (110). With Malcom Nunez right behind Urias, Pugs. If they were eligible, I’d have Tyler O’Neill in the 20-25 range and Carson Kelly right alongside Knizner.

    (I do this crazy radical nutty thing every year, where I actually rank Cardinal prospects according to the same exact standards as prospects from all other organizations. While doing so, I almost entirely ignore signing bonuses, because they usually don’t mean squat, and most position player scouting reports, because they are frequently tainted by various biases, and concentrate primarily on the performances, both offensive and defensive — relative to age and level of competition of course.)

    MLB’s top 30 Redbird list is incompetent, as currently constructed. Maybe they updated their top 100 but not individual teams, I don’t know. But no Malcom Nunez or Ivan Herrera or Lane Thomas or Jhon Torres or Leandro Cedeno in their top 30? Not competent. Montero behind Helsley and Arozarena, and Dylan Carlson behind Conner Capel and Max Schrock? Ridonkulous.

    It’s not as bad as last year’s Fangraphs St. Louis prospect list, which was the single least consistent, least coherent and least informed job I’ve ever seen of any ranking of anything, any topic, sports or otherwise. They ranked Jack Flaherty as a future #4 starter, had Bader outside their top 150, Hicks well outside their top 200, and Hudson outside the top 250 after winning the AA Texas League ERA title and league Pitcher of the Year in his first full pro season, and of course after being a first round draft pick.

    Dylan Carlson was outside their top 400 following a solid Midwest League campaign at age 18…and Elehuris Montero, coming off a Gulf Coast League All-Star season at age 18, was somehow outside their top 740 prospects. There’s a lot more I could say, but to sum it up, Fangraphs distinctly overrated between 3 and 5 STL prospects one year ago and markedly underrated between 22 and 26.

    Worst. List. Ever.

    As for what’s realistic, I’m honestly not sure precisely what you’re saying. If 1 or 2 or 4 or 7 or more players from one organization belong on an overall top 50 list, that’s just how the chips fall. Please don’t misunderstand me; I’m not saying that I’m better at evaluating Cardinal prospects than the guys at MLB.com. No. Rather, I’m saying that I’m good at it, and they are terrible.

    I already know from two decades of experience, chiefly with Baseball America, that Cardinal prospects will as a group almost certainly be underrated, each and every year. That’s not an opinion, it’s just the math, the historical record. Never top 100: Future Hall Of Famer Yadi Molina, as well as Dan Haren, Lance Lynn, Harrison Bader, Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, David Freese, Allen Craig, Jordan Hicks. And I’m sure I’m forgetting some guys.

    The thing that’s most realistic, is that the past will keep right on repeating itself. And that means that the St. Louis farm system will very likely be substantially underrated yet again this year, compared to other organizations. I can’t control the incompetence of Longenhagen and McDaniel at Fangraphs, or Callis and Mayo at MLB.com, not to mention the Baseball America crowd — Ben Badler notwithstanding.

    in reply to: Mlb updated top 100/team top 30 #71915
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    Silly to exclude Elehuris Montero from their top 50, much less the top 100.

    Elehuris was the 12th teenage Midwest League hitter this decade to post a 150 wRC+ or better (min. 200 PA’s). The other 11 were Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, Javy Baez, Corey Seager, Byron Buxton, Bobby Bradley, Eloy Jimenez, Bo Bichette, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vlad Guerrero Jr..

    All 11 ranked in the Baseball America top 100 following their MWL season, with 9 of them in the top 40 and 8 of them in the top 16. Their average rank was 24th. Throw out the high and low, and the average was 19th.

    You really have to go out of your way to snub Montero. But hey, he’s a Cardinal prospect so what should we expect? You know what they say about old habits. Shrug.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #71911
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    In a saloon you’re more likely to find me singing David Allen Coe or Ray Charles or Bob Seger or George Jones than a Mel Torme holiday classic, Pugs. But it still sounds like fun anyway.

    Open question to the Giovanny Gallegos enthusiasts:
    What do you like best about Gallegos? I don’t dis-like him, but I also don’t quite get the appeal. Already 27 with a very limited MLB track record, and obviously a reliever only.

    Thanks in advance for the insights.

    in reply to: Has 2018 already been a successful year? #71906
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    Brian:

    You said that Your worry seems to be that if they remain on the team, the manager will be forced to use them and they will deliver poor results.

    Yes! That is exactly correct! But I would not call it a mere worry, per se.

    Or rather, it is a worry that they will do so again, as they already did in 2018, which cost the Cards a playoff spot.

    My fault, not clarifying my position. I agree with you 100%, Brian, that the best thing would be to get some return for Fowler (that’s a howler) and Cecil and Gregerson. But my position is that it is better to release them and get nothing in return, than to hang on to them and let them keep hurting the team. As in 2018. (Even if the manager nearly never uses them, they’d be dead space on the 25-man roster. And that dead roster space in and of itself is injurious to the team’s chances.

    STL25: The problem is, you can’t use Fowler as a bench player. Fowler has established that he will not behave professionally if demoted to a bench role. Just in the last two weeks he has publicly griped about Matheny not giving him enough chances to get out of his “slump.”

    Think about how stupid and stubborn and unprofessional Fowler has to be, after weeks to reflect on the matter, to say what he said in his recent P-D interview with Goold. It is astonishing. Did he say: “I was terrible, and the team needed to play for wins. I’ll work hard to be better next year.” Nope, nothing of the sort.

    in reply to: Has 2018 already been a successful year? #71870
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    Agreed, Brian. Mo is not cheap, and neither are the DeWitts in general.

    The problem is how the dough has been invested lately. This year the Cards paid over $60M to the combo of Holland, Mikolas, Ozuna, Cecil, Fowler, Norris, and Gregerson, and got a grand total of 3 WAR in return. (Per Baseball-Reference.)

    The Brewers on the other hand paid $35M to Yelich, Cain, Chacin, and Miley, and received 18 WAR of production. And that extraordinary STL/Milw discrepancy accounts for the N.L. Central standings this year.

    The one great thing is, Mo can address this, anytime he wants. Release Fowler, Gregerson, and Cecil, and you have three albatrosses (albatri?) off the roster, which allows much more flexibility during the offseason transaction phase.

    in reply to: Malcom Nunez #71790
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    Thanks for the nice article on the MVP robbery, Brian! Must’ve been the signing bonus. Good thing the major leagues don’t work that way, or Albert Pujols would have never won any MVPs at all.

    Favorite Nunez trivia:
    Malcom hit more homers in 164 at-bats than the combined totals of the two DSL Royals teams in 4,399 AB’s.

    in reply to: 2019 ST. LOUIS CARDINALS TOP PROSPECTS VOTING #71766
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    26) Ramon Urias — Second baseman destroyed AA at age 23 in his first taste of U.S. minors.

    27) Edmundo Sosa — Like Lane Thomas, he advanced to AAA at 22 by producing & staying healthy.

    28) Jhon Torres — The 18-yr-old RF posted a gaudy 163 wRC+ across two domestic rookieball leagues.

    29) Leandro Cedeno — Hits.

    30) Joerlin De Los Santos — Elite season in the DSL at 17, overshadowed by teammate Malcom Nunez.

    Here’s some footage of J. D.L.S. from before he switched to center field:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZzZIpUrKJc

    I’m no scout, but he doesn’t look like Delvin Perez or Jonatan Machado, i.e., he doesn’t look like he’ll get the bat knocked out of his hands by quality pitching.

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First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and minor league system for over 25 years