[Bob Reed]

Thanks for compiling all that info, Pugs! I’m going to pass much of it along to my father, who’s old enough to regale me with stories of Stan, Red, and other Redbirds who played from the 40’s through the 60’s. (My fandom started around 1970. Unlucky me.)

[Bob Reed]

46) Derian Gonzalez

47) Ramon Mendoza

48) Julio Rodriguez

49) Angel Rondon
The 20-year-old posted a 2.90 ERA for Peoria this year, and his career numbers are solid as well with a strikeout per inning, a 3-1 K/BB ratio, and a 3.07 earned run average. Thanks, Dennis Johnson, for reminding me about Rondon. I saw the righty pitch this year, and shouldn’t have needed the memory jog. Stuff is fine, fastball 90-94, promising curve.

50) Juan Yepez
Another 20-year-old who was very good for Peoria this season — dominant actually, but only for a month, and then was no good at all for Palm Beach. But still, the Venezuelan first baseman is again just 20, and he did hold his own in full season ball at age 19 the year before. For what it’s worth, per Baseball Prospectus his baserunning & defense both improved markedly in 2018. Sort of a 1B version of Lane Thomas or Edmundo Sosa or Scott Hurst, i.e., uneven track record, but with periodic signs of real MLB potential, and needs to stay much healthier.

[Bob Reed]

41) Joerlin De Los Santos
Top 300 overall prospect for me, and #16 among Redbirds, DLS stole 30 bases in 64 games, posting the highest Speed Score of any Dominican Summer League 18-and-under player with a wRC+ of 150 or better. If not for Malcom Nunez, Joerlin would have received a great deal more attention this year.

42) Scott Hurst
Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport like the defense in both Center and Right. Looks like a prototypical 4th/5th outfielder, but he’s got to stay healthier. Likeliest outcome: Shane Robinson redux, and that’s a mighty fine bench guy for a few years.

43) Derian Gonzalez
Promising reliever was off to an excellent start in AAA, and had permitted just 1 hit over his previous 8 innings, when his otherwise intelligent manager left him in to throw nearly 50 pitches in one stint. And that was that. Never really healthy again until months later; missed 8 weeks on the DL in total. Candidate for the 2019 Cardinal bullpen. But then, aren’t we all?

44) Ramon Mendoza
Another Dominican Summer League guy, 5′ 11″ native Mexican Mendoza split his time evenly between 2nd and 3rd base, logging a tremendous 162 wRC+ at age 17 despite batting just .154 against lefties. (Ramon hits righty by the way, so this problem should not persist — at least not to this degree.)

45) Julio Rodriguez
Off year at the dish, but the backstop showed potential behind it once again, gunning 47% of stealers (after 48% last year) and cutting his passed balls down to a quite acceptable level. The errors have always been low, leading to a solid backup MLB projection, with the possibility for more. Turned 21 this summer and could see AA by the end of 2019. Real good sleeper.

[Bob Reed]

Thank you, Mr. Cobb! And a belated You’re welcome, mudville.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks, Brian, for the link to the BTB study of Baseball America over the years. Not sure how much can be gleaned from a study that only compares BA to itself, however. While BA has improved over time, it’s difficult to say whether BA should be lauded for their more recent lists, or belittled for their earlier ones. Maybe both. Maybe neither. We can’t know, because we aren’t comparing BA’s success rate to Sickels, or Keith Law, or Baseball Prospectus, or Fangraphs, etc..

To conclude based solely on that study that “BA is really good at finding the top players” is a little like saying “Bob Reed was really the best tennis player at Kiwanis Park on Sunday” when I was in fact the only one there, hitting the ball off a concrete wall. Each example may be both a true statement and utterly valueless.

By the way, other Cardinals who were never BA top 100: Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Jon Jay, and Aledmys Diaz. To add to Molina, Carpenter, Haren, Lynn, Craig, Freese, DeJong, Hicks, Bader, and so far Dakota Hudson. (Last chance on Hudson, boys!)

But the thing of it is, nearly every one of the above cited players was nowhere near BA’s top 100. They simply weren’t close at all in their evaluations.

Anyway, thanks for the vigorous feedback, Brian and Sooner.

[Bob Reed]

“Outside observers place the Cardinals somewhere in the middle of the pack among MLB farm systems.”

Sure, I don’t doubt it one jot, Brian. But isn’t it true that all of those same observers rated the Cards somewhere in the middle last year as well? And thus far I would say those folks have empirically been shown dead wrong. In fact I’d say that, despite flagging in late September, Redbird rookies like Bader, Flaherty, Hudson, Hicks, O’Neill, Munoz, Gomber, Poncedeleon and others provided the big club with as much value as any freshman group in the majors this side of Tampa, and maybe the Braves.

A year ago one well known outside observer disagreed about the Cards being middle-of-the-pack, though. John Sickels rated the Cards’ system 8th over the winter. For what it’s worth I had them 5th. If anything we may have underestimated them.

Quick recap time. I use a point system for prospects. A year ago, applying my point system to the prospect grades given by John Sickels, the Cards had 85 points. The top 10 were:

Toronto 97 points
Tampa 91
Philly 91
Braves 88
Friars 86
Cards 85
Yanks 83
Astros 77
Redlegs 75
Twins 73

Again, that’s my point system applied to his grades. As mentioned, Sickels actually ranked the Cards a bit lower at 8th. (Sickels does not use a point system.) Translating my own grades, I had the Birds with 87 points rather than 85, obviously an inconsequential difference. And I was happy to be in the company of Sickels.

Sickels is the only major national voice who strikes an excellent balance between detached numerical analysis of on-field minor league performance, and traditional mystical scouting. Not an ideal balance, by my lights; still too scouty on the position player side. But the best balance by far of all the prominent prospect voices.

So what about the current farm? This year my Redbird rankings — which exclude O’Neill & Kelly, as MLB does not consider them rookies any longer — give the Cards 83 points. I expect that will trail teams like Tampa and Minnesota and Toronto and the Padres, and maybe a couple others. As you say, Brian, the Birds are bereft of truly super-elite prospects. No Vlad Juniors here. But just like last year there’s a ton of top 100-150 types down on the Cardinal farm.

Folks, the Cards are elite again. Just like last year. When all the outside observers except one said they were not.

Lastly, I remember your fine work, Sooner. You very thoroughly and systematically showed how much the Cardinal prospects had been underrated by BA over more than a decade, if memory serves. Man, I’d love to see a link to that thread somehow. A very large and very very belated thanks for that research you did.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the response, Brian.

My reply would be that the Cardinal top 7 should be Reyes (#35 or so overall prospect), Montero (40), Hudson (50), Gorman (55), Knizner (65), Dylan Carlson (100 or so), and Ramon Urias (110). With Malcom Nunez right behind Urias, Pugs. If they were eligible, I’d have Tyler O’Neill in the 20-25 range and Carson Kelly right alongside Knizner.

(I do this crazy radical nutty thing every year, where I actually rank Cardinal prospects according to the same exact standards as prospects from all other organizations. While doing so, I almost entirely ignore signing bonuses, because they usually don’t mean squat, and most position player scouting reports, because they are frequently tainted by various biases, and concentrate primarily on the performances, both offensive and defensive — relative to age and level of competition of course.)

MLB’s top 30 Redbird list is incompetent, as currently constructed. Maybe they updated their top 100 but not individual teams, I don’t know. But no Malcom Nunez or Ivan Herrera or Lane Thomas or Jhon Torres or Leandro Cedeno in their top 30? Not competent. Montero behind Helsley and Arozarena, and Dylan Carlson behind Conner Capel and Max Schrock? Ridonkulous.

It’s not as bad as last year’s Fangraphs St. Louis prospect list, which was the single least consistent, least coherent and least informed job I’ve ever seen of any ranking of anything, any topic, sports or otherwise. They ranked Jack Flaherty as a future #4 starter, had Bader outside their top 150, Hicks well outside their top 200, and Hudson outside the top 250 after winning the AA Texas League ERA title and league Pitcher of the Year in his first full pro season, and of course after being a first round draft pick.

Dylan Carlson was outside their top 400 following a solid Midwest League campaign at age 18…and Elehuris Montero, coming off a Gulf Coast League All-Star season at age 18, was somehow outside their top 740 prospects. There’s a lot more I could say, but to sum it up, Fangraphs distinctly overrated between 3 and 5 STL prospects one year ago and markedly underrated between 22 and 26.

Worst. List. Ever.

As for what’s realistic, I’m honestly not sure precisely what you’re saying. If 1 or 2 or 4 or 7 or more players from one organization belong on an overall top 50 list, that’s just how the chips fall. Please don’t misunderstand me; I’m not saying that I’m better at evaluating Cardinal prospects than the guys at MLB.com. No. Rather, I’m saying that I’m good at it, and they are terrible.

I already know from two decades of experience, chiefly with Baseball America, that Cardinal prospects will as a group almost certainly be underrated, each and every year. That’s not an opinion, it’s just the math, the historical record. Never top 100: Future Hall Of Famer Yadi Molina, as well as Dan Haren, Lance Lynn, Harrison Bader, Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, David Freese, Allen Craig, Jordan Hicks. And I’m sure I’m forgetting some guys.

The thing that’s most realistic, is that the past will keep right on repeating itself. And that means that the St. Louis farm system will very likely be substantially underrated yet again this year, compared to other organizations. I can’t control the incompetence of Longenhagen and McDaniel at Fangraphs, or Callis and Mayo at MLB.com, not to mention the Baseball America crowd — Ben Badler notwithstanding.

[Bob Reed]

Silly to exclude Elehuris Montero from their top 50, much less the top 100.

Elehuris was the 12th teenage Midwest League hitter this decade to post a 150 wRC+ or better (min. 200 PA’s). The other 11 were Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Oscar Taveras, Javy Baez, Corey Seager, Byron Buxton, Bobby Bradley, Eloy Jimenez, Bo Bichette, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vlad Guerrero Jr..

All 11 ranked in the Baseball America top 100 following their MWL season, with 9 of them in the top 40 and 8 of them in the top 16. Their average rank was 24th. Throw out the high and low, and the average was 19th.

You really have to go out of your way to snub Montero. But hey, he’s a Cardinal prospect so what should we expect? You know what they say about old habits. Shrug.

[Bob Reed]

In a saloon you’re more likely to find me singing David Allen Coe or Ray Charles or Bob Seger or George Jones than a Mel Torme holiday classic, Pugs. But it still sounds like fun anyway.

Open question to the Giovanny Gallegos enthusiasts:
What do you like best about Gallegos? I don’t dis-like him, but I also don’t quite get the appeal. Already 27 with a very limited MLB track record, and obviously a reliever only.

Thanks in advance for the insights.

[Bob Reed]

Brian:

You said that Your worry seems to be that if they remain on the team, the manager will be forced to use them and they will deliver poor results.

Yes! That is exactly correct! But I would not call it a mere worry, per se.

Or rather, it is a worry that they will do so again, as they already did in 2018, which cost the Cards a playoff spot.

My fault, not clarifying my position. I agree with you 100%, Brian, that the best thing would be to get some return for Fowler (that’s a howler) and Cecil and Gregerson. But my position is that it is better to release them and get nothing in return, than to hang on to them and let them keep hurting the team. As in 2018. (Even if the manager nearly never uses them, they’d be dead space on the 25-man roster. And that dead roster space in and of itself is injurious to the team’s chances.

STL25: The problem is, you can’t use Fowler as a bench player. Fowler has established that he will not behave professionally if demoted to a bench role. Just in the last two weeks he has publicly griped about Matheny not giving him enough chances to get out of his “slump.”

Think about how stupid and stubborn and unprofessional Fowler has to be, after weeks to reflect on the matter, to say what he said in his recent P-D interview with Goold. It is astonishing. Did he say: “I was terrible, and the team needed to play for wins. I’ll work hard to be better next year.” Nope, nothing of the sort.

[Bob Reed]

Agreed, Brian. Mo is not cheap, and neither are the DeWitts in general.

The problem is how the dough has been invested lately. This year the Cards paid over $60M to the combo of Holland, Mikolas, Ozuna, Cecil, Fowler, Norris, and Gregerson, and got a grand total of 3 WAR in return. (Per Baseball-Reference.)

The Brewers on the other hand paid $35M to Yelich, Cain, Chacin, and Miley, and received 18 WAR of production. And that extraordinary STL/Milw discrepancy accounts for the N.L. Central standings this year.

The one great thing is, Mo can address this, anytime he wants. Release Fowler, Gregerson, and Cecil, and you have three albatrosses (albatri?) off the roster, which allows much more flexibility during the offseason transaction phase.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the nice article on the MVP robbery, Brian! Must’ve been the signing bonus. Good thing the major leagues don’t work that way, or Albert Pujols would have never won any MVPs at all.

Favorite Nunez trivia:
Malcom hit more homers in 164 at-bats than the combined totals of the two DSL Royals teams in 4,399 AB’s.

[Bob Reed]

26) Ramon Urias — Second baseman destroyed AA at age 23 in his first taste of U.S. minors.

27) Edmundo Sosa — Like Lane Thomas, he advanced to AAA at 22 by producing & staying healthy.

28) Jhon Torres — The 18-yr-old RF posted a gaudy 163 wRC+ across two domestic rookieball leagues.

29) Leandro Cedeno — Hits.

30) Joerlin De Los Santos — Elite season in the DSL at 17, overshadowed by teammate Malcom Nunez.

Here’s some footage of J. D.L.S. from before he switched to center field:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZzZIpUrKJc

I’m no scout, but he doesn’t look like Delvin Perez or Jonatan Machado, i.e., he doesn’t look like he’ll get the bat knocked out of his hands by quality pitching.

[Bob Reed]

21) Ramon Urias

22) Ivan Herrera

23) Edmundo Sosa

24) Jhon Torres

25) Leandro Cedeno

[Bob Reed]

I’m with you 100% in regards to Jose Martinez, Forschy. Even when he’s hitting really, really well, as he has for the 2016/17/18 Birds, Jose is just a 2-2.5 WAR player per 600 trips to the plate. He is a terrific bench asset, a great pinch-hitter, but too limited for the starting lineup of a playoff contender — especially one that already has Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill. Those are the no-doubt outfield starters, in a rational world.

Matt Carpenter though is a different story. He’s a distinctly better bat, better glove, and better baserunner than Jose Martinez, and this is duly reflected in Carp’s terrific annual WAR totals. Since he became an MLB starter in 2013, Matt is near the very top of N.L. WAR leaderboard, as he ranks number…well here’s the top 10, per Fangraphs:

1) Goldy 32.8 WAR
2) Votto 29.0
3) Cutch 28.8
4) Freeman 28.5
5) CARP 27.2
6) Harper 26.2
7) Posey 25.9
8) Rendon 25.7
8T) Yelich 25.7
10) Arenado 25.0

That’s some pretty good company he’s been keeping.

Lastly, Mike Moustakas belongs to a narrow and specific class of player, alongside Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, and Eric Hosmer among others. These guys are all nice boring solid 2 WAR regulars for their careers, give or take a rounding error. And let it be said, you have to be sooo good at baseball to be an average major leaguer. But average major leaguers should never be mistaken for the better ones.

Average major leaguers trick people, and I mean it happens ALL the time. When they have a really good year, a large percentage of people, even the otherwise intelligent ones, invariably say something silly like: “In terms of talent, that guy is well above average! He just, you know, has a down year sometimes.”

Here’s my ten cent diagnosis. Baseball fans tend to be optimists, so they convince themselves that these average players are in fact very good, but just have bad stretches now and then. But if these optimists would stop and think hard for just ten seconds, they’d realize that’s exactly what an average player is: a guy who’s above average sometimes, and below average sometimes. Or in the case of Eric Hosmer, below replacement level sometimes. For entire seasons.

Which is my unusually long-winded way of saying that Moustakas is markedly worse than the St. Louis version of Jedd Gyorko, who’s been worth an excellent 3.6 WAR per 600 PA’s since donning the birds on the bat (averaging the B-Ref, B-Pro, and Fangraphs values). And Jedd’s under team control for two years at a very modest price — but just one year if the Cards don’t want to exercise the 2020 option.

No Moose is good Moose.

[Bob Reed]

Couple of things. First, attendance. (I know, it’s really tickets sold. But that’s all we got. And it’s what counts most anyway, other than for the visuals.)

Despite some recent hand-wringing, attendance remains as usual a huge organizational strength for St. Louis. The Cards ranked third in all MLB this year in average attendance, behind only LA and the Yanks, at over 42,000 per game. Frisco was a distant 4th at fewer than 39K. Oh, and if you meet a Giants fan be sure to call their team “Frisco.”

Better than that, the Birds were first, yeah first in the majors in percentage of their seats that got bought, at 95.6%. The Red Sox were barely #2 with 95.3 and the baby bears got the bronze medal with 92.4. Twenty-six teams were under 90% and 24 under 85%.

Attendance link: https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance/_/sort/homePct

And second, I’m with you 100% cranny that the Cardinals should settle on a regular starting eight. Good, steady all around players. That’s how you described them, and I agree wholeheartedly. It’s about getting good players, whatever shape they take. Above average players for their positions. Guys better than 2-WAR, however they get there.

I don’t care if they all hit righty, or lefty. I don’t care of they never steal a base, or if some of them commit the most errors in the league at their position. I don’t care if nobody is a classic leadoff type, or an archetypical cleanup hitter. As long as they are all average or better among their peers, all 2+ WAR guys (and preferably more of course) once the batting, defense, and baserunning are all accounted for. For me that’s all that matters. Overall value, not role, not handedness, not steals or strikeouts or homers or error totals. Just the overall value.

So here’s my proposed Everyday Eight, and their career WAR averages per 600 plate appearances. For the WAR totals below I took the average of the only 3 publicly available WAR yardsticks: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and B-Prospectus. Two reasonable exceptions to this methodology, however. For Jedd Gyorko I used only his trio of Cardinal seasons, as that clearly represents a stable and sustained and markedly different level of ability than he showed in San Diego. And also, for Yadi Molina I only used the Prospectus WAR values, since for some unknowable reason they’re the sole website that includes both pitch framing and pitch blocking data, even though such numbers have been around for a decade or so.

Ozuna 3.2 WAR/600 PA’s
Bader 5.2
O’Neill 5.9
Gyorko 3.6
DeJong 4.2
Wong 2.7
Carp 3.9
Yadi 4.5

These reflect only the past, of course. I’m not making any predictions here. But I think these numbers illustrate why I believe that bullpen help and only bullpen help is a real team need this offseason.

(You all probably knew this already, but the Redbird starting pitching has been elite this year, all year. They’re 4th in MLB, and 2nd in the Senior Circuit in ERA. The pen on the other hand stunk. Next to last in the N.L. in Win Probability Added, at 5-6 wins worse than the average team, and 14(!) worse than the Cubs. In other words, with a merely average relief corps this year, the Cards would be right there with the Brewers and baby bears.)

I’m not completely stubborn, though. If they can swing a low-risk trade for someone like Kyle Seager in hopes of a big bounceback, then OK fine. With three years left on his contract, Seager wouldn’t be around long enough to block either Elehuris Montero or Nolan Gorman for more than a year, if either quickly self-actualizes. With Seager added, Jedd G. could at least temporarily slide over into a superutility role alongside Munoz for the next two years. And if Seager didn’t reclaim his past greatness, then Gyorko could simply return to being the hot corner regular for 130-140 games.

[Bob Reed]

I’ve been re-reading the Jon Ronson book, So You’ve Been Publicly Shamed, and based on the rather disturbing tales therein, and the Olbermann/Bader back-and-forth, I have less interest than ever in Twitter participation. Seems to make people even meaner than the regular internet.

I don’t have strong feelings one way or the other about K.O., but any baseball follower who thinks Harry’s not a dynamite talent isn’t paying attention. In other words, what BikeMike said.

[Bob Reed]

Sorry, guys. Missed Arozarena.

I’ll move Torres up one slot to #19, and make Leandro Cedeno #20.

Thanks for catching that.

[Bob Reed]

You mean, Tommy Pham is hitting .346 for Tampa Bay heading into today’s game with the Yankees, who are led by Luke Voit and his 1.005 OPS.

And that was before Voit went 3-3 today with another homer, his 12th for the Yanks in 37 games. It really is almost impossible to overestimate how many Cardinal hitters were being held down by John Mabry, and how badly.

[Bob Reed]

Brian:
The Cards have some control over the Cubs and Brewers when they face them head-to-head. Of course. But those head-to-head meetings constitute not much more than 10% of each team’s schedule.

I’m saying that the Cards have almost no control over whether the Cubs/Brewers win 88, 91, or 95 games. There is no disputing that. Sorry I wasn’t more clear before.

Getting back to the preseason projections thread.
The Cards were forecast by 538.com to win 86 games and get the 1st Wildcard slot. They’ve already exceeded that win forecast total. So how can that be a failure?

The USA Today had 6 writer predictions and just 2 had the Cards in the playoffs.
NY Newsday writers? Just 2 of 7.
The MLB Network polled 15 folks, and just 3 put the Cards in the postseason. Half as many as picked the Mets. Yes, the Mets. Heck, more picked the Twins for October than the Cards.

That’s 2 of 6, 2 of 7, and 3 of 15. For a total of 7 out of 28, or exactly 25%. So how can anyone think the Cards were supposed to make the playoffs?

Nyquis said it best back then. “The Cardinals would be the MLB’s surprise team if they get a wildcard.”

[Bob Reed]

I think I know a failure when I see one.

Washington? That’s a failure. Dodgers if they miss the playoffs? That’s a failure.

I checked the link to preseason projections provided by Forschy, and it confirms it: the Cards were “supposed” to win 84-86 games. And that was assuming some sort of contribution from Alex Reyes, I’m sure.

I’ll reiterate what I said in a previous post. I’d rather play well and win 90 games while missing the playoffs, than hover barely over .500, win 84 or 85 games, and squeak into a wildcard spot. And the difference between those two outcomes, is the quality of play exhibited by other teams — something over which the Cardinals have very nearly zero control. So recite the serenity prayer, pull for your players, and hope for October baseball.

I’ve already said I think the season was a success. (Mabry gone) + (beat preseason win total forecasts) = success. But for those who think it’s currently a failure: what if the Cards went in to Chicago, beat the Cubs 2 of 3 and knocked the baby bears out of the division title and into the crapshoot wildcard game…against the winner of a Cards/Dodgers game, because the Dodgers lost 2 of 3 over the weekend? Would that make the year a success? Or would the Cards need to beat the Dodgers in the play-in-to-a-play-in?

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the heads up on Ramon Urias and the 40-man roster necessity, DJ. I had no idea that the years in Mexico, being un-affiliated baseball, would count against him, so to speak.

I agree there’ll be a squeeze this winter. But I see plenty of candidates for dropping off the 40-man.

Start with Fowler, Cecil, and Gregerson. Ahh, to dream the impossible dream: a merit-based roster, not money-based.

More realistically there’s Tyson Ross, Dom Leone, Bud Norris, Chasen Shreve, Ty Webb (not the Caddyshack one), Francisco Pena, Patrick Wisdom, Conner Greene who throws hard but isn’t actually good, and a pair of sentimental favorites, Greg Garcia & Matt Bowman.

And I would hope the club will trade Jose Martinez to the DH league, and get a very good reliever back in the deal. It’s time to stop saying that Martinez is a “great hitter” or “outstanding bat.” Because he is not. He’s a very good hitter who pretty much kills you in the field and on the bases. That makes him a fine bench piece, but he should not be taking AB’s away from Tyler O’Neill.

That .300 average of Jose Martinez is pretty, and I like it too, I swear I do. But it makes people drunk, like the 103 MPH fastballs of Jordan Hicks. Folks see those numbers and they stop thinking straight. Tyler O’Neill has only 1/4 of the trips to the plate that Martinez does this season, and yet Tiny Kingman has generated 75-80% as much value as Martinez. And this, even though Martinez has indeed been the better hitter by a bit. But I digress. Really digress.

Anyway, Urias. Here’s what he hit in 2017 in the Mexican League:

.340/.433/.577

And here’s what he hit in AA for the Cards in 2018, his first shot at U.S. pro ball:

.333/.406/.589

Those slashlines that would make a corner outfielder blush. And the strikezone control was better than okay, with no signs he was sacrificing contact for power; whiffed 16% in Mexico, just 15% in the Texas League. Plus, the guy is a solid second base gloveman, and adequate baserunner. In other words, there’s no compelling reason to think he’ll have to move off the position.

So I think he’s a guy to be prioritized, at least ahead of many of those 2018 failed relief arms. I hope the front office feels the same. But based on the backward events of the past two years, I don’t trust Mo & Co. with any decision unless it involves a pitcher from the Japanese leagues.

[Bob Reed]

16) Ramon Urias

17) Ivan Herrera

18) Edmundo Sosa

19) Randy Arozarena

20) Jhon Torres
I agree with Grenadier that this big, slim 18-year-old has huuuge potential. The Cards appear to have unlocked additional power after acquiring him from the Injuns — and he was already hitting very well for the Cleveland farm, distinctly above average for his leagues in both the DSL and Arizona. Destroyed the Gulf Coast League in his brief time there, and B-Pro says his defense went from poor in 2017 to outstanding in 2018. This illustrates two facts, I think. (1)Players can change dramatically in a short time, at that young age. And (2)you really need a large sample size to feel that defensive numbers are reliable.

[Bob Reed]

Thank you for responding, Brian.

As far as smart business is concerned…let’s say the Birds were to sign, over the upcoming winter, a relatively obscure 16-year-old Nicaraguan middle infield talent for $300K even though the kid was generally valued by the industry as a ~$150K talent. If that player goes on to be a Greg Garcia style bench contributor, according to Fangraphs that’s more than $20,000,000 of surplus value. That’s what I call very smart business for the Cardinals, relative initial “overspend” or not. And maybe I’m naïve, but as for your concerns about inflation, I can’t see a purchase or two or three of that magnitude having much inflationary impact on the int’l market in general.

And I suppose that when it comes to the concept of overspending, there’s a broader point that I should have emphasized earlier. As a general rule, I would argue that (individual cases notwithstanding of course) on the whole it is nearly impossible to overpay in the domestic draft/international amateur markets, just as conversely it is nearly impossible to get a bargain when buying the top shelf free agents at the MLB level. As a rule, amateur players, whether domestic or international, are invariably the best investment a team can make.

Again, just one decent MLB bench player generates as much surplus value at the MLB level as the cost of four entire years of international signing classes, and that’s assuming a club uses their whole $5M budget — which in my opinion they always should. But you probably already guessed that.

No one knows better than a Cardinal fan that pittances sometimes turn into princes. See Albert Pujols, Matt Carpenter, et. al.. Therefore any dough left un-invested is an opportunity missed, in my book. Now, I’ll grant that the calendar certainly does make a difference. If this were next May, and the Birds had a bunch of money they hadn’t spent yet, that would be different, maybe there really wouldn’t be anyone of substance worth buying before the June 15 deadline. But young talented players will emerge between now and June. It’s almost axiomatic, given their youthfulness.

Anyway I’ve spoken my disgruntled mind on the subject. My powers of persuasion were pretty weak tea, I guess. Thanks again for responding at any rate.

Oh, and I like Lane Thomas. Lane Thomas thread. I like him. If most of the 2018 power sticks, he can start at CF for awhile for someone. BPro loves his glove, has him worth +5 runs per 150 games as a pro, as a centerfielder, over a sample of 400+ games. And one more thing. People ooohed and aaahed over his big blast of a homer in the Triple-A title game v. Durham. But I liked the triple more. He was fooled a little, out in front and reaching for it, but kept his base, kept the weight distributed well, didn’t truly lunge except for his hands, and hit it off the LF wall on one hop.

[Bob Reed]

I realize there’ll probably be a need for a first baseman after Carp’s contract expires post-2020, but I like Dylan Carlson much more in RF than anywhere else. He could fit there by 2021, or mayyybe even some point in 2020, with Tyler O’Neill shifting to LF after Marcell Ozuna presumably leaves via free agency.

I have heard that Carlson has the natural agility, the graceful footwork for first base, and it would be kinda nice for a change to have a plus defender at the cold corner. But the thing is, you’re wasting his valuable arm over there.

Carlson has played 140 games in right field as a pro, and he’s gunned 22 runners while committing just 5 errors. Tyler O. on the other hand, has played nearly double that, 260 games in RF, and has a 25/13 assist/error ratio. Not bad at all, but not nearly the equal of Carlson.

I have a feeling it’s Montero or Gorman who winds up at 1B, and they’ll need a post-Carp stopgap for a year before either can take over long term starting in 2022. Something like that.

I say all this, and then they’ll probably just give Carp a 3-year extension this winter.

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