Baseball America Cardinals prospect rankings

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This topic contains 99 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by Avatar CardsFanInChiTown 1 week ago.

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  • #79070
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Here is BA’s new Cardinals top 10.

    1. Reyes
    2. O’Neill
    3. Hudson
    4. Gorman
    5. Montero
    6. Cabrera (some of you folks are sleeping on him!)
    7. Thomas
    8. Knizner
    9. Nunez
    10. Carlson

    Subscriber article:

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1019/st-louis-cardinals/organizational/?year=2019

    #79081
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
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    I’ve heard some of the talk about Cabrera making a Flaherty-like jump and becoming that front of the rotation guy. The difference…Jack generally had better K and walk rates throughout the minors. Genesis looked electric in relief at the end of last year, and perhaps he becomes that Felipe Vazquez type of late inning guy. Or maybe his control comes around in a big way and he takes off. I just couldn’t bring myself to rank him ahead of guys with at least as good, if not better stuff or results (Reyes, Helsley, Hudson) or the offensive talent matriculating through the system now. 2019 will be a big year to start to separate out who might be future stars from the solid depth pieces we’ve been so good at collecting the last 10 years.

    #79085
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    Cardinals27
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    FYI, there will be Cards prospect chat at 1 for Baseball America. Check it out, and maybe chat amongst ourselves here after. I like BA’s rankings so far. I would have had Helsley higher and Carlson not on my top 10. I will be getting their prospect handbook for the 10th plus year in a row next month.

    #79086
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    PadsFS
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    Bw52 had Cabrera highest among our prospect voters at #9 (8 if you remove Carson Kelly).

    Regarding the list, I’d have Knizner above Montero personally.

    Nationally, it seems like Helsley is very underrated as a prospect. I wonder why he doesn’t ever get more props.

    #79089
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    #79090
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    bccran
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    Can any of you who have a subscription to BA please post any Card prospects they have listed in their annual Top 20 prospects per league? Thanks very much. They also have the top prospects by level (one per position) and an all prospect team (one per position) for the entire minor leagues.

    #79093
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    bccran
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    Okay, but he ended every single Genesis class at exactly 11:30pm on the dot. It makes a difference in what time people make lunch plans to meet someone (or people).
    We’ll confirm with him next Wednesday.

    Thanks very much for checking!

    Bob

    #79094
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    bccran, I am pretty sure you asked this same question a few weeks ago and I provided links to three Derek Shore articles from the fall with this information from BA about Cardinals prospects. Here they are again, or if they missed the mark, maybe I misunderstood the question.

    https://thecardinalnation.com/11-cardinals-among-bas-top-prospects-by-league/

    https://thecardinalnation.com/eight-cardinals-named-to-bas-minors-all-star-teams/

    https://thecardinalnation.com/eight-cardinals-named-in-bas-best-tools-survey/

    #79097
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
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    (Lost post, repaste)

    Interesting.

    Ken (Lakewood CA): Is Knizner thought to be the next Cardinal catcher? Is he good enough defensively to become their #1 guy behind the plate?

    Kyle Glaser: I’m glad you asked this Ken. The deal is other teams think Knizner is fine behind the plate. The Cardinals, however, have very, very high standards after nearly 15 years of Yadier Molina. I found it very interesting during the course of my reporting how unsure the Cardinals internally are of Knizner defensively, to the point it actually knocked him down a few spots on this list from where I initially had him. They acknowledge they have high expectations for their catchers, and aren’t sure if Knizner can get there. Average doesn’t cut it for them, whereas other teams would be fine with it. This coming year, and what Knizner does to make strides defensively, will be crucial in terms of the Cardinals deciding whether they’d feel comfortable riding him for 110-120 games a year behind the plate or want to pair him with someone else in more of true timeshare.

    #79098
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
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    Other interesting notes (I felt):

    1. Reyes an overall top 10 prospect still in Glaser’s eyes.

    2. Cards “comfortably in top half” of team ranks, with 5 top 100 guys.

    3. Gorman compared to Moustakas (blech), a .240-.250 hitter. O’Neill in the same hit category.

    4. Montero .280+, 25HR+ but will be 1B or LF.

    5. Mateo Gil singled out as a potential 2019 breakout.

    6. Ivan Herrera a bad defender, even considering his age.

    7. No one to compare Nunez to, because you shouldn’t comp 17 y/o players.

    #79100
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I am pretty sure Goold has commented that the team is high on Herrera’s defensive skills (so who knows).

    If Gorman and O’Neill are .240-.250 guys with 40+ HRs every year I’ll take that if they have a decent walk rate. O’Neill will also have a above average defense and Gorman I hope will be average. However I think half a season is a little early to predict how a player’s hit tool will progress.

    If Montero is our best hit for average player and he is only around .280 then we have a problem.

    #79101
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    CariocaCardinal
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    The more I look at Thomas the more he seems overated. His 2018 was good but it was such an aberation that it makes little sense for him to be ranked as high as he is.

    #79105
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    #79109
    BlackHillsCard
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    I generally hate player comps. I understand why some people use it and why some people enjoy it. I on the other hand hate them.

    #79111
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    bccran
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    Thanks very much, BW. It says there are 11, but I only count 10…O’Neill, Hudson, Gomber, Knizner, Carlson, Montero, Oviedo, Gorman, Torres, and Herrera.
    Am I missing someone?

    #79112
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    It appears Derek miscounted and I did not notice.

    I am not a big comp fan, either, although I report it when others make the reference.

    #79113
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    PugsleyAddams
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    Sweet! Nice to see Alexander “The Great” get some overdue pub.

    #79115
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    Bob Reed
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    1. Reyes an overall top 10 prospect still in Glaser’s eyes.
    2. Cards “comfortably in top half” of team ranks, with 5 top 100 guys.
    3. Gorman compared to Moustakas (blech), a .240-.250 hitter. O’Neill in the same hit category.
    4. Montero .280+, 25HR+ but will be 1B or LF.
    5. Mateo Gil singled out as a potential 2019 breakout.
    6. Ivan Herrera a bad defender, even considering his age.
    7. No one to compare Nunez to, because you shouldn’t comp 17 y/o players.

    1) I still have Reyes number 1, but for me there’s no way that someone with his injury history should be in a top 10. I’ve got him ~35th.

    2) BA includes Tyler O’Neill among the Redbird prospects, so the farm would be top 4-6 with his inclusion. Best collection of power hitters in the minors, and it’s not close. Gorman, O’Neill, Montero, Leandro Cedeno, Malcom Nunez, Jhon Torres, and even Lane Thomas and Ramon Usias could be loosely categorized as “power hitters.” And who knows how much pop Dylan Carlson will have at maturity. (Davenport says 25 homers or so.) Without Tyler O’Neill, the farm should rate roughly between 6th and 9th.

    3) The Moustakas comment was mildly disheartening, but a .240-.250 average isn’t as bad as it would’ve been just a decade ago. This year’s N.L. average? Only .247. In 2008, it was .260. If Gorman and O’Neill can hit .250 with 40 homers, that’s exactly equivalent to the .280 average and 25 bombs forecast for Elehuris Montero. (Every ten points of batting average is worth five homers, for a full time player.) And in 2018, over 600 plate appearances, that would be an OPS+ or wRC+ of roughly 130-140, depending on the doubles/triples/walk rate.

    4) Even at first or a corner outfield, that’s still excellent production. See #3. Or just look at Anthony Rizzo. Last five years he’s posted a 141 wRC+ and averaged 4.5 WAR per Fangraphs.

    5) With sooo many youngsters to choose from, Mateo Gil would never have popped into my head as a prime breakout candidate. But he was just 17 in the Gulf Coast League, and that’s a tough place for a young guy, and he did post league-average numbers. I just don’t see any speed or pop to build upon. Did show good patience for a kid, though. And it’s probably meaningless, but in a truly miniscule sample of 50+ PA’s he did perform very well when batting leadoff (.362 with a .901 OPS and a lucky 7/11 BB/K ratio).

    6) Herrera had a lot of passed balls, but just one error, and he gunned a firm third of basestealers, so I don’t know how Ivan’s arm was “fringey” or “marginal” or whatever it was that BA’s Mr. Glaser called it. (In 2017 he had too many errors, but gunned 40%. There’s requisite defensive talent for backstop — and if there isn’t, the bat he’s shown so far will play anywhere at all. (Two seasons, young for both leagues, and a wRC+ of 155 in 2017 was the bad year.)

    7) Perhaps I’m being unfair, but that feels like a cop-out, and a weird one coming from a “scouty” place like Baseball America. Every scout who sees him will draw upon their expansive storehouse of knowledge & memories to place his strength, swing, balance, bat speed into some sort of context — and that context is usually going to be a comp. I’ll do it, because I’m irresponsible anyway. I think the kid is going to hit like prime Allen Craig, roping line drives all over the field. (Sorry, Black Hills.)

    “If Montero is our best hit for average player and he is only around .280 then we have a problem.”

    Don’t worry about that, CC. The best hitter for average will probably be Knizner, Nunez, or Herrera. One of them will crowd the .300 mark at least once or twice. And again, .285 these days is like .300 just a decade ago. Standards have shifted, for now anyway.

    #79116
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    PadsFS
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    Glaser, during the chat, was pretty rough describing a few guys:

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatar PadsFS.
    #79117
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    PadsFS
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    Zac (NYC): How far away from the top 10 is Delvin Perez? What is his ceiling right now? A big league regular?

    Kyle Glaser: Delvin Perez didn’t even come close to being in the top 30, let alone the top 10. His ceiling right now is a minor leaguer. It’s bad. It’s really bad.

    John (NJ): Kyle, thanks for the chat. How close was Alvaro Seijas to the top 10? Was it a lost season for him, or is there something else left in the tank? Has his ceiling decreased at all?

    Kyle Glaser: Hey John, my pleasure. Seijas was not anywhere near the top 10 discussion. In fact, he didn’t make the top 30. When you’re that hittable in Low A, no one is going to think much of you. You’ll notice he was pretty hittable at Johnson City too in 2017. From holding his stuff to sequencing to locating, Seijas is pretty far behind where he needs to be, even in the context of his age and level. This current offseason and the 2019 season will be critical for him to take some much-needed steps.

    Paul Ivice (Jensen Beach, Florida): At which position is the Cardinals minor-league system weakest, either in depth or strength of better prospects?

    Kyle Glaser: They are very, very weak in the middle infield. With the trade of Andy Young, no one outside of Tommy Edman is really even considered more than an up-and-down guy at either 2B or SS.

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatar PadsFS.
    #79119
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    PadsFS
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    Eric: What can you tell us about Jonatan Machado?

    Kyle Glaser: Machado was probably the Cardinals prospect that got crushed the most by evaluators this year, including some internal ones. He’s even smaller than his listed 155 pounds – he’s closer to 140 – and just extremely physically weak. Scouts saw a free swinger with so-so bat speed and zero ability to impact the ball. He was also pretty rough in CF and his plus speed played slower in games. It really wasn’t good, in any regard.

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatar PadsFS.
    #79129
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    gscottar
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    I like comps if they are used properly. They can give a general sense of trajectory for a player but they shouldn’t be treated like scripture. For minor league novices like myself comps can be a useful gauge as long as we remember that each player is unique.

    Having said that I agree that hearing Gorman compared to Moustakas is a little disappointing. While Moose is probably a better player that most analytical types give him credit for I think we all have higher aspirations for Gorman than that.

    #79133
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    In my opinion, all comps are not created equal. The questions I ask myself are who is making the comp and what are their qualifications and track record in doing so?

    For example, when Stubby Clapp says multiple times on the record that Lane Thomas compares favorably with Harrison Bader, I pay attention. He not only managed both players, but also knew Thomas from when they were with Toronto.

    On the other hand – and I do not know if that is relevant in this specific example – one scout could mention his comp to a writer, who publicizes it. We don’t know who the scout is and how often has he seen the player. A lot of times, individual scouts disagree on players, sometimes significantly. Same for the writers.

    Not intending to disparage anyone. Just explaining why I am cautious about comp labels on players, especially young ones with limited track records.

    #79157
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    PadsFS
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    BW did offer up a scouting view on Genesis Cabrera as a “LH Carlos Martinez”. 😉

    #79172
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Context is important. For those who do not subscribe, here is what I wrote. It seems very clear and I stand behind it.

    Just before this, Derek had mentioned Cabrera as a possible Kevin Siegrist-type of reliever. I offered this as part of a consideration that he could be more.

    “…I’ve heard some call him a left-handed Carlos Martinez, but those are others’ words, not mine. The point is that he can be really good and still just turned 22.”

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