Baseball America Cardinals prospect rankings

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  • #153916
    jj-cf-stl
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    “All that is missing is the nearly ready MI/CF type talent that prospect raters go gaga for.”

    Where would you rank Thomas on this years list if eligible?

    #153917
    stlcard25
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    Where would you rank Thomas on this years list if eligible?

    Toward the back end of the top 10. I think people are sort of down on him but he debuted better than Arozarena and the Cards kept him cause they felt he was a true CFer. I was sort of on the “platoon Thomas and Bader” bandwagon before 2020, and I think Lane could get his shot again this year.

    #153918
    jj-cf-stl
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    I’m with ya. I’ve got Bader 65/35 Thomas in CF.
    Vs LHP’s I have Thomas starting in RF, Bader CF, Carlson LF. That gives Thomas 65% playing time, same as Bader.

    #153981
    14NyquisT
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    There are few things better as a Card’s fan than a ROY.

    #168220
    Cardinals27
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    Mid season top 100 rankings have Liberatore at 39, Walker at 45, and Gorman at 46. Not sure if Herrera was on last list or last years list in the 90s, but he has dropped off.

    #168222
    mudville
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    Knizner has looked good behind the plate whenever he’s gotten a chance to play.

    #168224
    blingboy
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    Not sure if Herrera was on last list or last years list in the 90s, but he has dropped off.

    In the absense of high draft pick cred, a year of .280ish A ball may not be enough to crack the top 100. This year’s batting line wouldn’t help, young for level or not.

    #168308
    bccran
    Participant

    Walker will crack it soon.

    #179303
    Brian Walton
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    The new national 1op 100 is out. What do you think?

    #179304
    cardsfan64
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    Free

    Not a member of BA so can’t see this article.

    #179306
    Brian Walton
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    Jordan Walker – #24
    Nolan Gorman – #34
    Mathew Liberatore – #50

    #179412
    gscottar
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    Having three Cardinals in the top 100 isn’t that unusual but having three in the top 50 probably doesn’t happen often.

    #179429
    Brian Walton
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    In 2020, the Cards had three top 50 prospects, but they were according to Baseball Prospectus – Carlson, Gorman and Liberatore. For BA only, the Cards had five top 100 in 2019, but only two in the top 50. Last time the Cards had at least three top 50 per BA was 2013, when they had four in the top 39 and six in the top 100. I see an article coming…

    #179454
    14NyquisT
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    I’ll be waiting to see that article.

    #179475
    Brian Walton
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    We aim to please!

    #179687
    Brian Walton
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    #179822
    Bob Reed
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    The proper ranking for the Redbird collection of prospects is somewhere between 5th and 11th.

    The only distinctly better farm systems are the Orioles, Pirates, Rangers and Royals. Baltimore and K.C. have the consensus top two prospects in the sport, and each franchise also has a #2 prospect with quite plausible star potential — Grayson Rodriguez in Baltimore and M.J. Melendez in Kansas City.

    Texas and Pittsburgh each have four top-50 types, and one or two additional top-100 candidates. (Pay particular attention this year to Ranger outfielder Evan Carter, who is on nobody’s top 100 list, nor even close, but rightly belongs in top 20-25 discussions. Now that Jordan Walker has received a top 10 overall ranking at Baseball Prospectus, Evan Carter is the most underrated prospect in baseball. Well, him or the equally neglected Everson Pereira of the Damn Yankees.)

    Besides the quartet of teams with a better farm than the Cards, there’s also six organizations with similar-to-StL levels of talent. Alphabetically, those would be Detroit, Frisco, the Mets, the Yanks, San Diego, and Seattle. I’d be very curious to know who the other seven teams are, that BA mistakenly places above the Birds.

    #179823
    Brian Walton
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    FWIW, 18th is an improvement over their #20 midseason ranking. And MLB had St. Louis #21 at that time.

    #186839
    Brian Walton
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    #187247
    Cardinals27
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    Where’s Winn and Herrera?

    #188720
    Brian Walton
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    #188730
    Bob Reed
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    Masyn Winn: strong-armed shortstop who steals bases without getting caught, and leads ALL under-21 minor leaguers right now with 31 extra base hits (tied with Elly De La Cruz), while hitting for an excellent average across High-A and Double-A after just turning 20 years old a few weeks before Opening Day. Pro-rating his 2022 numbers to 150 games, Winn would bat .315 with 51 doubles, 19 triples, 13 homers, and steal 43-for-46 bases. Nobody reading this needs me to tell them that is a GREAT prospect at any position, much less shortstop.

    That’s the profile of a top 10 overall prospect, perhaps top five. Not #98 (or #106, as Fangraphs just ranked him last week). It’s inadvertently hilarious in a way, this bizarre under-ranking for young Mr. Winn. Because on the day he was drafted in 2020, it was universally written by the folks like Fangraphs and Baseball America and everyone else, that Masyn Winn might be the single most toolsy, most talented player in the entire draft.

    Ahhh, but now, when the unbelievably toolsy Winn is performing spectacularly well on the field, it suddenly doesn’t matter that he’s so darn talented I guess. He just can’t be rated more than borderline meaningful — and miles away from elite. I would ask those who rank him around #100, exactly what Masyn would need to do to be ranked among the very elite prospects. Because whatever it is, he’s already doing it.

    Masyn Winn is showing speed, power, patience, better-than-average contact, all while very young. This is an extremely unusual combo, very exciting. More specifically, Winn is trying to be the first minor leaguer young for his level to have an elite 7.0 speed score plus an isolated slugging of .200+, plus a strikeout rate under 20% and walk rate of 10% since Carlos Correa back in 2015. (Winn has one walk too few and two whiffs too many right now. That’s how close he is.) Prior to Correa was Mookie Betts in 2013. Before him was a guy named Trout in 2011. You get the idea.

    ——————————————————–

    Yes, Winn could fail to develop because ANY prospect could. But there are no red flags here, and plenty of positives. If you want to know where Winn really belongs on prospect lists, just do the objective thing and compare him side-by-side with other top 100 shortstops — particularly the top 25-30 types. You’ll see that other than Gunnar Henderson and perhaps Ezequiel Tovar, Winn has the edge on all of them.

    Graceffo should probably be 10-20 spots higher, but that’s a quibble. He’s fully two years older than Winn and plying his trade at the same levels this year, so it makes for a mildly interesting comparison.

    #188738
    Cardinals27
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    I really like the chances of Graceffo and Winn to succeed. Along with Walker, they should all be on the verge of the majors next year. My only question is why Burleson isn’t in the top 100?

    There will be some trade chips with potential depth created, not that I would trade the above 3 prospects.

    In fact, I see potential 100 win seasons and World Series appearances if we can get some pitching help.

    #188741
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    Burleson should probably be around #80 or so, but it’s not crazy to omit him. He doesn’t offer defensive or baserunning value, and his low walk rate is a tiny red flag. Also, he might be a platoon outfielder and some evaluators take a grim view of that. He has a 1.032 OPS against righties this year but just .719 v. southpaws. Last year it was .821 and .669.

    Smart organizations exploit such players, while others lose out by fixating on the hole and not the doughnut. Still others ignore the splits to their own detriment, hoping without logic that the player simply changes. You know, like Pujols hitting against righties this year. Ugh.

Viewing 24 posts - 151 through 174 (of 174 total)
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