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“All that is missing is the nearly ready MI/CF type talent that prospect raters go gaga for.”
Where would you rank Thomas on this years list if eligible?
Where would you rank Thomas on this years list if eligible?
Toward the back end of the top 10. I think people are sort of down on him but he debuted better than Arozarena and the Cards kept him cause they felt he was a true CFer. I was sort of on the “platoon Thomas and Bader” bandwagon before 2020, and I think Lane could get his shot again this year.
I’m with ya. I’ve got Bader 65/35 Thomas in CF.
Vs LHP’s I have Thomas starting in RF, Bader CF, Carlson LF. That gives Thomas 65% playing time, same as Bader.Mid season top 100 rankings have Liberatore at 39, Walker at 45, and Gorman at 46. Not sure if Herrera was on last list or last years list in the 90s, but he has dropped off.
Not sure if Herrera was on last list or last years list in the 90s, but he has dropped off.
In the absense of high draft pick cred, a year of .280ish A ball may not be enough to crack the top 100. This year’s batting line wouldn’t help, young for level or not.
The new national 1op 100 is out. What do you think?
The @BaseballAmerica Top 100 Prospects list is live!https://t.co/2njamD7ySZ
— Chris Trenkle (@ChrisTrenkle) January 19, 2022
Having three Cardinals in the top 100 isn’t that unusual but having three in the top 50 probably doesn’t happen often.
In 2020, the Cards had three top 50 prospects, but they were according to Baseball Prospectus – Carlson, Gorman and Liberatore. For BA only, the Cards had five top 100 in 2019, but only two in the top 50. Last time the Cards had at least three top 50 per BA was 2013, when they had four in the top 39 and six in the top 100. I see an article coming…
We aim to please!
One has to go back nine years to find as many #stlcards prospects among Baseball America’s top 50 as in 2022, but their current count of top 100 placements is slightly below par. I dig into 12 years of data. ($) https://t.co/rjMqPB5WKU pic.twitter.com/vIkXFwg8P6
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 25, 2022
BA places the Cardinals system 18th.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2022-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/
The proper ranking for the Redbird collection of prospects is somewhere between 5th and 11th.
The only distinctly better farm systems are the Orioles, Pirates, Rangers and Royals. Baltimore and K.C. have the consensus top two prospects in the sport, and each franchise also has a #2 prospect with quite plausible star potential — Grayson Rodriguez in Baltimore and M.J. Melendez in Kansas City.
Texas and Pittsburgh each have four top-50 types, and one or two additional top-100 candidates. (Pay particular attention this year to Ranger outfielder Evan Carter, who is on nobody’s top 100 list, nor even close, but rightly belongs in top 20-25 discussions. Now that Jordan Walker has received a top 10 overall ranking at Baseball Prospectus, Evan Carter is the most underrated prospect in baseball. Well, him or the equally neglected Everson Pereira of the Damn Yankees.)
Besides the quartet of teams with a better farm than the Cards, there’s also six organizations with similar-to-StL levels of talent. Alphabetically, those would be Detroit, Frisco, the Mets, the Yanks, San Diego, and Seattle. I’d be very curious to know who the other seven teams are, that BA mistakenly places above the Birds.
FWIW, 18th is an improvement over their #20 midseason ranking. And MLB had St. Louis #21 at that time.
We have a fully updated Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list for June. We consulted scouts, scouting directors, analysts, front office officials and coaches to fully revamp the list. Eight new players joined the 100.https://t.co/oRg1HDROdi
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) June 2, 2022
If you don't know, now you know.
SS Masyn Winn (No. 98) & RHP Gordon Graceffo (No. 99) have entered @BaseballAmerica's Top 💯 Prospects list. pic.twitter.com/8B6jj6okHg
— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) June 21, 2022
Masyn Winn: strong-armed shortstop who steals bases without getting caught, and leads ALL under-21 minor leaguers right now with 31 extra base hits (tied with Elly De La Cruz), while hitting for an excellent average across High-A and Double-A after just turning 20 years old a few weeks before Opening Day. Pro-rating his 2022 numbers to 150 games, Winn would bat .315 with 51 doubles, 19 triples, 13 homers, and steal 43-for-46 bases. Nobody reading this needs me to tell them that is a GREAT prospect at any position, much less shortstop.
That’s the profile of a top 10 overall prospect, perhaps top five. Not #98 (or #106, as Fangraphs just ranked him last week). It’s inadvertently hilarious in a way, this bizarre under-ranking for young Mr. Winn. Because on the day he was drafted in 2020, it was universally written by the folks like Fangraphs and Baseball America and everyone else, that Masyn Winn might be the single most toolsy, most talented player in the entire draft.
Ahhh, but now, when the unbelievably toolsy Winn is performing spectacularly well on the field, it suddenly doesn’t matter that he’s so darn talented I guess. He just can’t be rated more than borderline meaningful — and miles away from elite. I would ask those who rank him around #100, exactly what Masyn would need to do to be ranked among the very elite prospects. Because whatever it is, he’s already doing it.
Masyn Winn is showing speed, power, patience, better-than-average contact, all while very young. This is an extremely unusual combo, very exciting. More specifically, Winn is trying to be the first minor leaguer young for his level to have an elite 7.0 speed score plus an isolated slugging of .200+, plus a strikeout rate under 20% and walk rate of 10% since Carlos Correa back in 2015. (Winn has one walk too few and two whiffs too many right now. That’s how close he is.) Prior to Correa was Mookie Betts in 2013. Before him was a guy named Trout in 2011. You get the idea.
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Yes, Winn could fail to develop because ANY prospect could. But there are no red flags here, and plenty of positives. If you want to know where Winn really belongs on prospect lists, just do the objective thing and compare him side-by-side with other top 100 shortstops — particularly the top 25-30 types. You’ll see that other than Gunnar Henderson and perhaps Ezequiel Tovar, Winn has the edge on all of them.
Graceffo should probably be 10-20 spots higher, but that’s a quibble. He’s fully two years older than Winn and plying his trade at the same levels this year, so it makes for a mildly interesting comparison.
I really like the chances of Graceffo and Winn to succeed. Along with Walker, they should all be on the verge of the majors next year. My only question is why Burleson isn’t in the top 100?
There will be some trade chips with potential depth created, not that I would trade the above 3 prospects.
In fact, I see potential 100 win seasons and World Series appearances if we can get some pitching help.
Burleson should probably be around #80 or so, but it’s not crazy to omit him. He doesn’t offer defensive or baserunning value, and his low walk rate is a tiny red flag. Also, he might be a platoon outfielder and some evaluators take a grim view of that. He has a 1.032 OPS against righties this year but just .719 v. southpaws. Last year it was .821 and .669.
Smart organizations exploit such players, while others lose out by fixating on the hole and not the doughnut. Still others ignore the splits to their own detriment, hoping without logic that the player simply changes. You know, like Pujols hitting against righties this year. Ugh.
BA subscriber article… (Hjerpe debuted at no. 9 in our July rankings.)
The updated Cardinals Top 30 Prospects is live on @BaseballAmerica
The 2022 Draftees have been added, including first rounder Cooper Hjerpe. Take a look and see where the Cardinals newest lefty ranks. #STLCards https://t.co/RmKr3hcrqI pic.twitter.com/GUkdLqpLPG
— Geoff Pontes (@GeoffPontesBA) August 10, 2022
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