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If those are the ground rules, if we’re going to give Mozeliak the blame for Marmol’s bad decisions, then logically we also have to give Mo credit for Marmol’s good decisions. All of them. Therefore we’re left with no means of evaluating Marmol whatsoever.
And if that’s the lens through which some Redbird fans wish to view the manager, that’s of course their prerogative — front offices exert more influence on managers than ever before, I have zero doubt. But again, for me the buck stops at the manager’s doorstep. I judge any and all managers by the sum of their strategies, Marmol included.
I very much doubt that there’s anything constructive left to say re this matter of 2022 managerial pitcher usage. Some of us will just have to agree to disagree.
“Was it Ollie’s desire to have a ragtag rotation for the first four months of the season?”
In September of 2021, when the Cards needed a 5th starter, Mike Shildt went with Jake Woodford and found solid success.
In 2022, month after month, when the Cards needed a 5th starter, Ollie avoided Jake Woodford like a leper with bad breath. The so-called ragtag rotation was largely Marmol’s doing.The 13 starts that Marmol chose instead to give to a combination of Naughton, Hicks, Thompson, and Oviedo resulted in just 43.1 innings and a 6.65 ERA. That’s just 3.1 innings per start. I don’t know what your rebuttal is here, guys. It all seems straightforward: Marmol sabatoged the team for months by using unqualified starters over and over, when a better option was staring him in the face.
Of course Woodford is no savior. He’s a solid #4 starter who’s been bizarrely relegated by a marginal manager to mopup garbagetime eunuch. And in some seasons it wouldn’t be that big of a deal. But in 2022, it was a huge part of the Redbird mediocrity for four months.
“Was never a Woodford fan as I thought his minor league peripheral numbers would not translate well. But he hás proven me wrong and I hope he continues tô make me eat crow.”
Simply put, CC, Jake left the ball over the middle of the zone much less often in 2022 than he did the year before. Thus he elicited a lot less hard contact. I don’t expect any more 2.23 ERA’s in his career, but there’s no reason right now that he can’t be a solid swingman used in mid-to-high-leverage long relief, or in spot starts when necessary.
Since Sept. 1 of 2021, there’s only 8 MLB relievers with as many innings as Jake Woodford and a lower ERA. And for those who think ERA is a lesser form of reality, only 10 relievers have as many innings with a lower FIP, also. Needless to say, none of those other highly effective and durable bullpenners were used as meaningless garbagetime mopup men.
“Do you guys really think giving all those starts to those guys was Ollie’s decision?”
However much Marmol’s specific input in specific situations, he’s the manager and therefore he’s responsible for all of the good and bad decisions. He’s where the buck stops.
“We won 93 games last year so something is working.”
Agreed. What worked last year was Mozeliak had the best trade deadline of any GM. He rescued Marmol from his most misguided impulses by acquiring a pair of starting pitchers who combined to contribute 23 starts and an ERA just over 2.50. At the end of July, the Cards were on pace for the second-worst record of Mozeliak’s tenure (85-77). That was all Ollie.
“Isn’t keeping runs off the board the objective…not how many guys you can strike out?”
Yup. That’s how the game is played. And here’s a stat for you. The Birds had 10 different pitchers make 7 or more starts in 2022. The 5 with the highest strikeout rates combined for an ERA of 4.55. Meanwhile the 5 with the lowest strikeout rates combined for an ERA of exactly 3.50. Obsessing about strikeouts or “swing-and-miss stuff” is as knuckleheaded as obsessing about popups. Strikeouts and popups both retire the batter with nobody on base possibly advancing, right? But you never, ever, ever hear about any team fixating on popups, do you? Because that would be nonsense. Well, same thing with strikeouts. It’s nonsense.
It’s entirely reasonable to prefer strikeouts or popups. But those skills are only part of what happens on the field. The bottom line is to Get. People. Out.
“There are some that think Ollie did a pretty good job.”
And Marmol might deserve a lot of credit for the career years at the plate by both Goldy & Arenado. Maybe the extra days off for the durable duo had a lot to do with their batting prowess. Or maybe it was the input of Turner Ward, or some kernels of advice from noted hitter Albert Pujols. In any case, if Goldy and Arenado are at or above their career norms in 2023, then I’ll be inclined to give a chunk of credit to Ollie’s policies. And Marmol saw more talent in Pallante than I thought was there, or that anyone else thought was MLB ready. So good on him for that.
But all in all, here’s how I see the 2022 season. At the end of play on July 30th, the Cards were 53-48 and four games behind the Brewers in the standings. Things looked bad. And this, despite having two legit MVP candidates.
Why the mediocrity? Because of shaky pitching, and more specifically because at that point Ollie Marmol had given 13 starts to wildly unqualified pitchers like Naughton, Hicks, Thompson, and Oviedo, none of whom had ever come remotely close to succeeding as even a AAA starter, much less the majors. In those 13 starts, they averaged 3.1 innings with a 6.65 ERA. It’s hard to overstate how much damage that did. Games were lost that could have been won, and just as importantly the bullpen again and again was needlessly overtaxed.
I say “needlessly” because 10 or 11 of those 13 terrible starts could simply have been given to a Cardinal who already had shown an ability to start at both the Triple-A and MLB levels. (Woodford, obviously.) I honestly believe that 25 or more of the other current MLB managers would simply have given 10 or 11 starts to the guy with the MLB track record.
There’s plenty of other stuff, too, Cranny. Trying repeatedly to force-feed the leadoff spot to Dylan Carlson. Hitting Goldy in a non-RBI spot for weeks. Playing Yepez in the outfield over and over. And there’s more, but I’m beating a dead horse. Marmol was bad. Quite bad.
But at the trade deadline, Mozeliak bailed him out by acquiring not one but two starting pitchers, both of whom pitched lights-out over the final two months. Furthermore, the GM of Milwaukee fractured the team morale by trading away their closer. Thus, a near perfect storm swept Ollie into first place.
I’ve left out some bad, and left out some good, too, I’m sure. But you get the gist of my opinion.
Resolved: The Cards stopped being elite after 2015 because they DID increase payroll, but spent it foolishly on bad investments like Fowler, Ozuna, and numerous over-the-hill relievers.
If they had simply trusted their elite player development system, they would have had LOWER payrolls and BETTER teams over the past seven seasons. And who knows, they might still have that manager who actually won baseball games in October.
I’m more than willing to gripe about greedy cheapskate owners when it’s called for. Eat the rich, I don’t care. But I think it’s intellectually dishonest to blame the decline of the Cards into good-but-not-great on payroll inequities. They spent a ton of dough (and a pair of first-round draft picks, don’t forget) very unwisely on free agents, and made a truly foolhardy trade where they gave up not one, but two future #1 starting pitchers for a fat outfielder with an uneven track record.
These blunders did not arise from cheapness. Cheapness, gentlemen, had nada to do with it. As soon as the Cards get a real manager, they’ll be positioned very strongly for the future. Lots of young talent, majors & minors. Be of good cheer.
Maybe I’m a tough grader but I don’t consider Donovan to be a particularly adept fielder, Gold Glove or no Gold Glove. So it’s plausible that the Chicago northsiders will have the better defensive middle infield.
Anyway, it’s not all puppies and rainbows for Chicago. It’s almost axiomatic that the cubs lost some of Nico Hoerner’s overall value with his move to second base. That’s how it works. Moving the wrong way on the defensive spectrum decreases the defensive contribution 90-95% of the time, and the hitting demands at the keystone are a bit higher.
But hey, I’m sure the Swanson signing will work out about as well as the Soriano and Heyward deals did for the cubs. A player with a well-established level of talent goes out and has a Big Season and people overreact and think he’s reached a brand new level of profoundly better ability. Suckers. You know who learns from the past? Nobody.
The Chicago team looks like .500 to me, and that’s well behind the Birds & Brewers.
Could be right about Dylan Carlson, Nigel, and his being a sonofacoach. Guys who are hurt but not injured (to borrow a distinction from the late great James Caan) will definitely sometimes push themselves to their own detriment.
And I love Nolan Gorman, I really do, ever since I saw him just wrist-flick the baseball 350 feet to the opposite field twice in one game for Peoria. Best wrists I’ve seen since Hank Aaron, no kidding. But I was definitely in favor of trading him (or Donovan) if it was very specifically going to bring back a star catcher — namely Sean Murphy or Tijuana Santa, aka Alejandro Kirk. The at-bats just cannot be there in 2023 for all three of Gorman, Burley, and Yepez, each of whom deserves a full 550-600 plate appearances based on present and future production. I just don’t see those opportunities as realistic.
If Goldy, Edman, and Arenado play the same number of games as last year (452 total), that leaves 844 starts for non-catcher position players. Noot and Carlson have good health histories, so they can be penciled in for 145 games each. Tyler O’Neill played 138 in 2021, so let’s call it 135 for him. And Donovan should start at the keystone and fill in sometimes at other spots, so 145 for him as well.
Assuming my math is right, that leaves a grand total of 274 starts for Burley plus Yepez plus Gorman, combined. And that’s if Willson Contreras never plays DH (which we know he will), and Jordan Walker never plays a single game in the majors this year — which he likely will, at least in September. Okay, O’Neill will probably get an ouchie or three. But there’s still Contreras and Walker to account for. Just too many pieces for the puzzle.
That’s the math…and counting his deferred dough, 40-something pitcher Adam Wainwright will make more than Edman, Donovan, Gorman, Yepez, Nootbaar, Carlson, and O’Neill combined. Much more, in fact. So there’s lots of ways to parse salary commitments.
Anyway, on principle I want position players to get the lion’s share of the payroll, as they’re more reliable contributors in general than pitchers. The real trouble is, the Cards haven’t produced good starting pitchers for themselves over the past 3 or 4 years. Just Alcantara and Gallen, for other franchises. Sigh.
“Our pitching has a chance to be good next year.”
True enough. Almost everyone has an age or injury question mark hovering over his head, but when they take the bump they do have solid track records of effectiveness.
Career ERA+
Flaherty 119
Wainwright 118
Mikolas 114 with St. Louis
Hudson 112
Monty 110
GAP
Matz 94Jake Woodford has made 10 solid MLB starts (3.77 ERA) but is not included here for obvious reasons. And that touches on the pachyderm in the room: there’s zero depth beyond the above group, and we do NOT want the manager to start using relievers as starters again. (Refresher: last year, 13 starts to the combo of Naughton, Hicks, Thompson, Oviedo, for a 6.65 ERA and 3.1 innings per start, before Mo saved his backside with the slick pair of Trade Deadline acquisitions.)
What the pitching staff really needs in order to be above average, is to have a large pleasant surprise. Like Liberatore or Connor Thomas or Gordon Graceffo emerging by June as a viable #3/4 MLB starter. Unlikely but not implausible.
I’ve been enjoying Rooney’s broadcasts since I lived in Chicago in the 1990’s and am confident he’d be an excellent choice for Dan’s job. Rooney should naturally inherit the TV gig, and I’ll take his job. I don’t want to brag or anything, but I’ve often been told I have a face made for radio.
“Been broadcasting at local level all my life and Danny Mac had a great job. But I’m not sure that he has made millions of $$$$. Only a guess…”
https://allfamousbirthday.com/dan-mclaughlin/
As long as this is apparently a topic for debate, the above site claims Dan is worth 5 million bucks. And yet another site pegged his annual salary at $400,000, rather than $69,000 and change.
Anyway, I bear him no malice, or anything else. He’s a grown man and everything that’s happened to him is of his own making. As I’m sure he would concede.
I feel bad for Dan, worse for his family, due to the addiction and embarrassment. But as for the job loss, you can call me a cold-hearted so-and-so, but when a wealthy person loses their job I couldn’t care less.
I worked for two different companies where corporate takeovers/layoffs took place, so I saw first-hand what happened when middle class people suddenly lost jobs for nothing more than wrong place/wrong time. That’s where my sympathy goes, every single drop of it. Multimillionaire coaches and broadcasters and others? Uh, no.
Forgive me for sticking my nose in, 25, but I think Cranny was saying he loved Arozarena when Randy was killing AAA for the Cards. And that would’ve been during the 2019 season. The community prospect list you cite would’ve been prior to 2019, since Tommy Edman was still a prospect.
Anyway, I just think Burley is limited by his relative weakness versus southpaws (unlike Noot & Donovan for example), and unimpressive fielding/baserunning. But I do believe he’ll hit if given 5-6 starts per week in the majors…which of course he won’t be given because the Cards have too many good DH types. It’s kind of a problem.
So the Mets currently have a player payroll slightly higher than the Dodgers & Red Sox combined. Strange days. Dodgers are going to add some players before Opening Day, I’m sure. (Dansby, perhaps?)
But what in the world happened to the Red Sox, I’ve gotta wonder. First they don’t retain Betts. Now Bogaerts. And soon, Devers. They’ve got the same billionaire owner they did when Theo was there 15 years ago. But now he wants to win without spending, a la the Devil Rays. Good luck with that, Mr. Henry.
And the Cards’ player payroll is tied for 10th, or roughly commensurate with their revenue ranking.
Thanks for the info, Brian.
While it’s quite nice to have 11 hitters projected at 110 or better by the Steamer system, I’m more encouraged by the Birds having 8 at 118 or better. For context, the average #3 hitter in baseball last year had a 116, the best of any batting order position.
Hard to argue against you, Andujar.
With Pujols on the team, LaRussa was 40-34 in October. And obviously two World Serious championships.I doubt there’s anything to do to make the team more likely to win in October, other than:
1) Make them more likely to get to October in the first place, via various upgrades.
2) Add hitters or pitchers with great playoff track records, or get a better tactical manager.———————————————————-
Somebody said something about how the Cards haven’t had as much success since Albert Pujols left. It feels that way, for sure. But….
2001-2011
994-787
.558
3rd-best record in MLB2012-2021
843-673
.556
also 3rd-best record in MLBThe big difference of course is the October performance. From 2001-11, the Birds were managed by a first-ballot Hall Of Famer. There was very, very likely going to be a dropoff in managerial quality, regardless of who came next. But in Octobers, Mike Matheny actually acquitted himself very well, winning four series as an underdog and losing just once as a favorite. His overall October record of 21-22 is excellent. One game under .500 versus the best teams & managers is laudable. How laudable, exactly?
One game under .500 is coincidentally the cumulative postseason W-L record of Earl Weaver, Billy Southworth, Whitey Herzog, Bobby Cox, Casey Stengel, Tommy LaSorda, Miller Huggins, Leo Durocher, John McGraw, Al Lopez, Dick Williams, Walt Alston, Wilbert Robinson, and Bill McKechnie — Hall Of Famers, all, of course.
Then the Cards got rid of Matheny (thanks for nothing, Dexter) and they’ve gone 4-11 in the playoffs since. I don’t know how much the post-Matheny managers have hurt in October, but they certainly haven’t helped.
————————————————
But I’m rambling. This thread is nominally about the 2023 pitching staff. And I’d say the best chance the Cards have to win 95 games or the N.L. pennant (or both, ideally) is to admit NOW that certain pitchers are relievers and ONLY relievers (Hicks, Pallante, Thompson, Naughton) and try to cultivate a dominant bullpen rather than pursue an Ace or other rotation upgrade that will cost a bundle in cash or talent.
These are some ERA’s from 2022, when used in relief:
Zack Thompson 0.91 over 29.2 IP
Helsley 1.25
Woodford 2.30
Pallante 2.35
Stratton 2.78
Gallegos 3.05
Naughton 3.24Hicks 4.37
Cabrera 4.63
VerHagen 6.65Between all of these guys, plus Liberatore, Pacheco, and whoever loses out on the rotation competition (presumably solely between Matz & Hudson), a decent manager should be able to cobble together a strong relief corps. And maybe Marmol will be decent this year. Maybe he’ll improve on his freshman job performance. Stranger things have happened.
Taveras was a year and a half younger, Cranny. That’s part of it.
And Oscar had already hit OK in Triple-A the year before that, with a slash line of .306/.341/.462.And then, OT was also considered a somewhat better defender & baserunner — not great at either, but better than Alec, who would probably be headed for DH or first base in most organizations. Although, depending on ballpark configurations, Burley could be presentable for some franchises in an outfield corner.
And finally, you gotta bear in mind everything that happened prior to their Triple-A performances. Taveras dominated at three pro levels before he got to AAA, and smoked Double-A pitching with a .950 OPS and mere 11% strikeout rate. When he was a month younger than Jordan Walker was this year.
So we see that (1)age, (2)total pro track record, and (3)baserunning/defense each favor Oscar. Alec Burleson is a worthy top 100 prospect, he is. But he’s also a bit one-dimensional and likely doesn’t hit southpaws well enough to be a true full-time starter. He’s properly ranked in the 70-80 range among all prospects, and probably headed for a 7-10 WAR career. Something like that.
“Yep, I never quite understood the Donovan batting at #5 thing. But he’s sure fine at #1 or #2.”
I think Marmol’s reasoning was that Donovan had hit so well with men on base, that the 5th spot might be natural despite his lack of extra base power. Kinda like how Tommy Herr was an excellent RBI man for a year, back in the day. I have lambasted Marmol for numerous reasons (he’s a bad manager, folks) but Donovan in an RBI spot was not a loony move at all. Not with these numbers.
Donovan bases empty: .722 OPS
With men on base: .864
Runners in scoring position: .994As opposed to when Brendan hit leadoff: .220 with a .649 OPS. Bleccch.
I’d hit him second, right behind Noot, who has excelled when hitting first (.814 career OPS) and who also has hit much better after taking the first pitch — a skill that comes in handy for a leadoff man, more than any other batting order spot.
Nootbaar in at-bats when he swung at the first pitch: .614 OPS
Noot in all AB’s when he did NOT offer at first pitch: .832“Ken Rosenthal is reporting Mo countered with an offer of the A’s picking from two of:
– Gorman
– Carlson
– Burleson
– Yepez”If so, then I’ll retract 90% of my Mo criticism. Even I wouldn’t have included Dylan. Maybe Mo needed to have a pitcher (non-Hence/Graceffo) on the table. But really, when you add it all up it looks like the A’s simply fouled up.
“The As would have been foolish not to take that deal. Especially if Mo added a second-tier pitching prospect.”
Agreed 110%, Cranny. And a pitching prospect shouldn’t have even been a necessary add-on. Maybe Gorman or Carlson plus a pair of mid-level pitching prospects.
But I think Mo saw that the A’s were being unreasonable, and (unfortunately) grabbed Contreras The Elder when he had the chance, at too many years and too much money. Meanwhile, the Brewers would wind up swooping in and getting Contreras The Younger for next to nothing. Yeesh. He appears to be almost as good as his older brother, he’s five years younger, and he makes no money. Brewers win big again. Makes them co-favorites for the division in ’23, once you factor in their substantial managerial advantage.
First two-thirds of that lineup was dynamite, Andujar. That bottom third, though. Not much firepower.
Here’s a 2023 lineup, with projected OPS+ (average of Marcel the monkey and the Steamer forecast):
Noot 123 OPS+
Donovan 123
Goldy 143
Arenado 129
Yepez 122
Contreras 119
O’Neill 119
Carlson 114
Edman 105(Gorman is 111 and Burleson 110, in case of injury.)
The core of this year’s lineup can’t compare to your MV3 battering ram, but this season’s depth means every inning has the potential for a multi-run rally. And that’s pretty cool.
“The Braves gave up a lot. Number 1, 6 & 18 prospects plus Contreras and others.”
Other than Contreras, the Braves actually gave up very little. Very, very, very, very little.
Their #1 prospect is not top 100, and has a “book value” significantly below Matthew Liberatore for heaven’s sake, per the Baseball Trade Values website. As 25 said, the Cards have innumerable better prospects than Atlanta’s (former) best. According to the BTV site, the Birds have 8 farmhands better than Muller. And that doesn’t include Leonardo Bernal — our #6 guy per Baseball Prospectus.
Sure, younger Contreras has a lot of value. But Oakland didn’t get Contreras! What Oakland got was a sack of magic beans. Or maybe more like half a sack. Total trade value at BTV? Just over 14. For context, Liberatore by himself is 12. Murphy was 51. Burleson is 13. Noot + Donovan + Graceffo = 85. There had to have been an offer Mo could have made, that was much less than Noot/Donovan/Graceffo but still much stronger than Oakland eventually got. Because there is a LOT of space between 14 and 85.
Oakland tried to bluff Mozeliak, who didn’t fold. (Good for him, truly.) But unfortunately, Mo also didn’t counter with an offer good enough to hook the A’s. And that was his responsibility. We now know that the A’s were NOT totally unreasonable, utterly detached from reality in their demands. And so this is partly Mo’s fault, it must be said. And this extraordinarily shabby return for Oakland should have their knowledgeable fans asking for David Forst’s job.
“When I see him (Lars Nootbaar) mentioned on this forum, he’s either a regression candidate because he’s overachieving his prospect ranking….”
Maybe some Cardinal fans feel this way, but I would hope not. Let the past guide your judgment in this matter. Here are some current major leaguers who were never on anyone’s top 100 list as Cardinal prospects, along with their WAR per 600 plate appearances for their careers thus far. (WAR is average of B-Ref and Fangraphs sites.)
Tommy Edman 4.5 WAR per 600 PA’s
Brendan Donovan 4.4
Harry Bader 4.0
Lars Nootbaar 3.9
Ramon Urias 3.6
Matt Carpenter 3.5
Randy Arozarena 3.4
Adolis Garcia 3.1
Tommy Pham 2.9
Paul DeJong 2.8
Aledmys Diaz 2.2
Luke Voit 1.8(Apologies to anyone I left out.) That’s in the neighborhood of 23,000 MLB plate appearances. All of the above were never top 100,i.e., not MLB regulars. Think on that for just a second. Moreover, like Lars Nootbaar, the vast majority of those listed above were never close to a top 100 list. I have no doubt Noot’s performance on the field will fluctuate from year-to-year as nearly everyone’s does. And he may well regress some in 2023. But it won’t be because he’s Bo Hart. Noot showed signs of unusual talent in the minors, and the last thing he did was clobber Triple-A at age 23 — a very good sign moving forward.
Here’s what somebody wrote at this website back in May of 2019:
Roughly 1,200 minor leaguers have 50 or more plate appearances so far. Of the real prospects (those under 25 years of age), only four have an isolated slugging over .200 and a K rate under 10%:
Lars Nootbaar (.256), Wander Franco (.235), Alejandro Kirk (.230), and Vlad Guerrero Jr (.244).
This doesn’t make Nootbaar any sort of elite hitting prospect. Or even a good one. But it sure makes him interesting. Nooty’s a little old for his league, but I like him anyway. I’d probably put him above both Luken Baker and Genesis Cabrera on my prospect list, among others.
My expectations for Lars were non-existent before the season. Now he’s a plausible 4th/5th outfielder long term. Maybe even more. It’s such an idiosyncratic profile, I don’t know what to expect. And that’s fun.
