Bob Reed

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  • in reply to: Marco Gonzales traded #186155
    Bob Reed
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    Prior to 2021, Seattle had won the trade.
    Two months ago, the Cards had won the trade, because a star is more valuable by far than a merely solid starting pitcher.
    And now, it’s To Be Determined.

    With better hitting coaches, I truly believe Tyler wouldn’t have scuffled so badly prior to 2021, or struggled terribly this season. As evidence, during the 2018 campaign, Tyler was one of the Cardinals who immediately blossomed as soon as John Mabry was replaced midseason as Redbird batting coach by the Two Old Guys.

    2018, with Mabry, 92 OPS+
    2018, w/Old Guys, 130 OPS+

    ———————————

    For whatever it’s worth, Marcell Ozuna and Kolten Wong also experienced similar, immediate transformations back in 2018.

    Ozuna/Mabry: 92 OPS+
    Ozuna/Oldsters: 133 OPS+

    Kolten/Mabry: 91 OPS+
    Kolten/Two Old Guys Fired Soon Thereafter Because They Don’t Speak Fluent “Metrics”: 127 OPS+

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    I’m very happy for Angel Rondon, who came through with 5 stellar innings today. The 24-year-old has had a bumpy ride since being named organizational Pitcher of the Year for his excellent age-21 season in AA.

    I hope he’s given the opportunity to keep starting, whether in the majors or minors. He has a sound track record for his pro career, and appears to have the minimum daily requirement of modern fastball giddyup: per the Gameday website he hit 94.6 and 94.4 today, and was 93.2 on his 78th pitch, and 91.9 on his 85th.

    Guys like Rondon, and Connor Thomas, and of course Jake Woodford sometimes just need to be trusted and given the chance to struggle a bit, before becoming the solid #4 MLB starters (or maybe a bit better?) that’s inside of them. That’s what’s happened with Austin Gomber in Colorado, as he’s settled into a 5-5 1/2 inning role with a slightly-better-than-average ERA+ of 105 last year and 103 so far in 2022. Not exciting, I realize. But very useful.

    And just to add one of my patented killjoy observations, I do NOT want to see Cardinal position players pitching, ever since Felipe Lopez injured himself pitching in the 20-inning debacle versus the Mets about 15 years ago.

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    “Managers do not have as much autonomy as they did in the old days. I suspect the rotation, for example, is more decided by analysts and the front office than the manager. I cannot prove that, just as no one here knows how much control Marmol has been given.”

    I don’t disagree with one word of the above, Brian.
    But I’m not just talking about Woodford and the rotation. Maybe the shifting of Hicks to a starter’s role was made collectively by many individuals at various levels. (And I agree 100% with that! But do it at AAA for 6 or 8 starts before force-feeding Hicks into an MLB rotation.)

    What I’m talking about is Marmol’s refusal to give Jake Woodford any meaningful MLB responsibilities whatsoever. Not a swingman, or long man, or high-leverage multi-inning arm. Not even a mid-leverage helper out of the pen. Nope. First he was a leper, sitting for two weeks despite no reported physical ailment; then he was treated like a garbageman at the end of his MLB journey, tossing an inning here or there in zero-leverage spots.

    Just a reminder: last year Jake Woodford had a respectable 3.99 ERA, and 3.61 over the 2nd half. And in September/October he made 5 starts and held batters to a line of .226/.286/.275, shutting out the (hated, rival, stinky) Brewers for 5 innings — twice.

    And Marmol was here! He saw all of this, as a member of Mike Shildt’s staff. So what the #@$% turned him against Woodford so completely?

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    Are you suggesting, Brian, that Oli Marmol isn’t the one who decided to transition Jake Woodford from last year’s swingman/starter into the mop-up garbagetime guy he became this year?

    I always give the manager all of the blame/credit for pitcher roles and batting orders and other day-to-day minutiae. No matter how much input they may get one way or another from outside influences, the buck still stops with them — for good or ill.

    Just like when Matheny had the Dexter Fowler & Harry Bader conflict in 2018. Matheny gets the blame for taking so long before benching Fowler in mid-June. But Matheny also gets the credit for finally doing so — unlike Shildt who reversed course and inexcusably re-instated Fowler and dislodged Bader from the starting lineup.

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    Call it what it is. Nine baserunners and a wild pitch, resulting in 4 earned runs (and men on base when he left) in 4 2/3 innings is a terrible performance.

    I expect Matt will be better next time…but of course, with a competent manager it never would have come to this. Because with a legitimate MLB manager, Woodford would have taken that start tonight, because he would have already been stretched out as a swingman — given what he did last year overall, and his dominant September as an MLB starter, and his excellent Spring Training.

    When a manager does something really, really stupid, it tends to resonate over time, ending in lots of little or large troubles.

    in reply to: Affiliate observations 2022 #185823
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    On the topic of Graceffo, one thing that stands out (among many) is his ability so far to attack both lefty & righty bats with equal aplomb. Per his splits at milb.com, lefty lumber is hitting just .138 while righties have yet to homer in more than 100 at-bats. And according to Baseball-Reference, with runners on base, batters are hitting a meager .140/.173/.180. Yeah, they are slugging .180.

    I don’t think I’d promote Masyn Winn quite yet, as he just turned 20 a couple months ago. But Graceffo is 22, and certainly doesn’t appear to have anything left to learn at Peoria. (And speaking of Peoria, it’s a pitcher’s park but GG has a distinctly lower ERA on the road at 0.64 across five starts.)

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    I suppose that one man’s nitpick is another man’s legitimate complaint, but this is at least the third time this year that Marmol has batted Harry Bader 9th against a lefty pitcher. Which of course makes zero sense, given that Bader has slugged nearly .500 against them for his career.

    Moreover, the Birds are on the road right now, and Bader away from Busch has been an excellent hitter for his MLB career as well, slashing .276/.343/.474. Add it all up, and by my back-of-the-napkin estimate, Bader on the road versus southpaws probably has a career OPS around .900.

    And he’s hitting 9th tonight. To me, 6th or even 5th would make sense. (Now watch, he’ll go 0-5 with a golden sombrero.)

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    “Unless Walker turns out to be a Big Papi. I wonder what Walker thinks about playing third base?”

    I don’t expect Walker to become a profanity-spouting, pear-shaped drug cheat. But if he stays healthy I do expect him to probably be 1/2 Matt Holliday and 1/2 Frank Robinson, which would be a big star of course. For their careers, Holliday was basically a 4-WAR per full season guy and Robinson was an amazing 6-WAR talent per 155 games. Both of them were terrific power-hitting corner outfielders who batted righty and didn’t hurt their teams in the field or on the bases, generally speaking.

    If you asked Jordan Walker tomorrow about what position he wants to play in the majors, he’d just say “wherever they want me to play,” I’m sure. (His defensive numbers at the hot corner are quite poor this year [12 errors and just 2 double plays], and also were not good last season, so even if the two Nolans were not around, I doubt that 3rd base would be in Jordan’s long-term future.)

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    Huge kudos to Giovanny Gallegos. Faced five men and fanned them all — and this, after entering the game with the tying run on base and one out in the 8th. Truly dominant, and clutch as clutch gets.

    I really, really, really do not understand why so many Redbird fans have violently turned against Gallegos in recent days. Yeah, he screwed up and didn’t cover first base. (But that play would never have happened in the first place if Arenado just would have made the throw to retire the previous batter.) And then he gave up a homer to Pete Alonso the other night. His first homer allowed this season.

    Gio has pitched 184 innings for the Cards since the start of 2019, with a 2.83 ERA. Here’s a list of all MLB relievers since 2019 to throw at least 160 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA: Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Liam Hendriks, and Giovanny Gallegos. That’s it, honest. Four guys.

    I’m very happy for Ryan Helsley and overjoyed for how tremendously he’s pitched so far this season. But Gallegos is and should remain the closer, particularly given how great he’s pitched on the 2nd day of back-to-backs, throughout his career.

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of May 17-23 #185686
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    …and Tink threw a real nice debut, with just one hit in three innings (bunt single) and five whiffs to one walk. There was one cheap run — the bunt, a steal, another steal, and an RBI groundout — but all in all a nearly peerless performance for the young man.

    Bravo, Markevian.

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    “You get what you pay for. The Mets paid up this offseason, Canha, Bassit, Scherzer and Starling Marte are just a few I remember; STL got Mutz, Pujols and Dickerson. I’m not surprised they are the better team.”

    The Mets signed Buck Showalter. The Cards hired Boy Wonder. There’s your difference.

    Albert Pujols has been EXACTLY what he was last year — he kills lefties and stinks against righties. It’s the kid manager who has mis-used him so badly that Albert appears to be just a mediocre hitter now. Dickerson hasn’t hit, but Yepez has made up for that. Yes, Matz has disappointed. No arguing that point.

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    Can they call up the Memphis manager and put Marmol on the Disabled List for brain freeze?

    The team could use a shakeup, but really they just need to put the best players on the roster, and use the roster in an intelligent fashion. In other words bring back Woodford and keep him stretched out, pitching multiple innings in meaningful situations; send Hicks down to be a starter in AAA and improve his stamina/skillset; stop letting Albert Pujols face more righties than lefties; and don’t play guys at positions that are significantly beyond their defensive capabilities — no Donovan at shortstop and no Yepez in the outfield.

    You are welcome. 😉

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    Albert Pujols is now 4-for-36 versus righty pitchers this year, with a sub-.400 OPS. (It was .500 last year, and hasn’t been league average since the Obama administration.) He is batting .474 against southpaws but unfortunately he’s had 70% of his plate appearances against righties — including the killer double play he grounded into today, in the 10th inning, with two men on base.

    Our boy manager needs a lesson in math. Oh, wait, never mind. He’s gonna use metrics and matchups this year! Wasn’t that what we were told, over and over and over again?

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of May 17-23 #185504
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    Jordan Walker will be a corner outfielder at the MLB level, Ny. (Even money says he gets some work in left and right before getting promoted to Triple-A.)

    Walker has the legs for left field and the rifle for right. Just my opinion: even if there were no Nolan Arenado in the organization, and no Nolan #2, I still think Jordan Walker was going to end up in the outfield so his speed and throwing arm could be used in tandem.

    And I agree with you that Masyn Winn’s upside is considerable — at the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths. Imagine Tommy Edman with a much stronger arm and a smidge more power. If the season ended now, I’d have Winn among the overall top 20-25 minor leaguers. Pretty good for a team’s 3rd-best prospect, huh?

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of May 17-23 #185480
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    “Maybe under the radar a little, Herrera is up to .310 at Memphis.”

    Good call, grey ghost.
    Since starting the season in a nasty little 3-for-17 funk with 10 K’s and zero walks, Ivan The Terrific is batting .352/.463/.574 in 67 trips to the plate — with 11 walks and just 9 whiffs. Smallish sample, but quite an impressive one nevertheless.

    There’s not much doubt that Herrera, Gorman, Walker, and Winn constitute the best quartet of position prospects in the minors. All very young for their leagues, all enjoying tremendous hitting success, and all but Walker with a chance to stick at up-the-middle defensive positions for at least the next 5 or 6 years.

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    Tonight is exactly the situation where Jake Woodford should have started — if the manager were wise. We knew about Wainwright’s potential unavailability way back on Friday, and yet Woodford was used in a lengthy and largely pointless mop-up appearance in a game on Saturday.

    We shoulda got Woodford tonight. It was just about the easiest managerial decision you could want. A relatively young starter with an MLB track record of solid performance, and in fact outstanding performance last year in September, and in Spring Training, and so far this season.

    Instead we get a failed starter (who it must be said might be a pretty good reliever in the long run). I wish we knew for sure if Marmol is just unfathomably stupid when it comes to Woodford, or if this shift to the “worthless mop-up guy” role is an act of pure vindictiveness. It really can’t be overstated much, how loopy this is. Real managers do not do this.

    For example, with all of LaRussa’s grudges and eccentricities, he never mis-utilized an established MLB pitcher like this, in all his years under the Arch. Can’t think of any Redbird managers who have, actually. Converting Kyle McClellan from reliever to starter was misguided, bound to fail — but at least the manager was giving the pitcher a chance, a challenge to exceed reasonable expectations.

    What Marmol has done with Woodford borders on unethical. It’s certainly incompetent.

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of April 26-May 2 #184161
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    Thanks for compiling those numbers, 25. The “worst” two of the bunch are Ivan Herrera (above average in AAA at age 21) and Jordan Walker (excelling at age 19 in AA). So it’s fair to say the hitting side of things has gone tremendously well — everywhere except the majors, anyway.

    And the pitching side of the ledger has been almost as successful; Matt Liberatore and Connor Thomas have been quite solid again for Memphis, and McGreevy, Graceffo, and Dionys Rodriguez (younger than the other two) have combined for a sub-1.50 ERA at Peoria. Even Zack Thompson has surprised me by pitching presentably well, after his nightmare 2021 season.

    All in all, the only Redbird prospect of note whose stock has gone down so far is Malcom Nunez. Everyone else is either holding serve or moving up. Probably makes the Cards one of the top 3-5 farm systems right now, with a reasonable chance to be #1 and have 8-10 top 100 types by July. Lotta momentum right now.

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    Why on earth use Woodford in the 9th inning mop-up role today, when the Redbird 3-inning starter is pitching tomorrow?!

    Wouldn’t it have made a lot more sense to bring in Woodford directly after Hicks on Sunday? It really, really really feels like Marmol is using Woodford in every way possible to avoid giving him a chance to show he can be a starting pitcher. No long relief appearances, no high leverage. It’s as if Marmol literally doesn’t know that Woodford was solid last year, fantastic in September when given the chance to start, and then excellent again in Spring Training.

    It’s as if Marmol slept through all of that. Or personally despises Woodford so much that Jake’s track record just doesn’t matter. (Maybe Jake protested when not given the 5th starter slot he earned in Spring Training, and Marmol is getting even with him, showing him who’s the boss. I dunno, but it makes more sense than any other explanation. It isn’t injury.)

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    …and that’s why they have Pitcher Fielding Practice. All Gallegos had to do was make a routine run to first base.

    Instead he stood and watched. Ugh.

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    “Is Votto officially the worst contract in baseball?”

    “Worst contract has to be Upton isn’t it? Like 28 mil and was told to GTFOH by LAA management.”

    Two solid nominees, gentlemen. Though in fairness it must be noted that Votto had a very nice bounceback season in 2021: 36 homers and 99 ribbies in just 129 games. And although this has no bearing on his contract value, he also topped 2,000 career knocks, which probably clinched an eventual spot in the Hall Of Fame.

    My selection, however, would be Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin. Since the start of 2020 he’s been cumulatively below replacement level, at a cost of roughly $30MM so far and another $20MM by the end of this season. And then over the next two years he’ll be paid another $60 million(!) to apparently be quite dreadful. (His ERA is a whisker under 6.00 for his last 45 starts.)

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    Booyah asked:
    “Where is Woodford at? They throw VerHagen out there again!”

    Yeah, and then Brooks. Woodford hasn’t pitched in a week and a half. Anyone have any idea what his injury is? I mean, it MUST be an injury, right?

    Marmol was half crazy to not name Woodford his fifth starter coming out of Spring Training, but he couldn’t personally dislike Woodford enough to simply not use him at all, if he’s healthy. Right? Right?

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of April 12-18 #182780
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    “Bob Reed, any thoughts on Tovalin at PB? I get the impression this guy is going tô just hit and hit and hit.”

    You could be right, CC. I’m withholding my endorsement until he does so at a higher level, though.

    The thing about Tovalin, listed at 6’2″ and 230, he has little or no defensive or baserunning value (9 errors in 36 pro starts at the hot corner), so he’ll have to really clobber the ball to contribute against MLB opposition. And that is such a tough standard.

    I was highly intrigued when he was drafted, mind you. Anybody who slugs .700+ in college while fanning less than 10 percent of the time…well, that gets my attention. But upon further investigation, it became quickly clear that Azusa Pacific had a LOT of big bats in their lineup — seven AP hitters had an OPS north of 1.000 during Osvaldo’s senior season (min. 100 PA’s). So those gaudy collegiate numbers just aren’t that impressive after all.

    Anyway, the guy is 22 in Low-A (and kinda flunked his first trial there last year, with that atrocious BB/K combo) so he pretty much needs to be succeeding in AA by the end of 2023, for me to consider him a potential bench contributor or longshot for DH. And maybe he will. He has certainly shown massive improvement so far at Palm Beach.

    Maybe this makes me a killjoy, but I’d probably have him somewhere in the mid-to-upper 20’s, as far as Redbird prospect rankings go.

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of April 12-18 #182576
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    “Can anyone remember a position pipeline better than Gorman, Yepez, Donovan, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Herrera, and Baez?”

    Very good question, cranny. Don’t forget Malcom Nunez either. And something tells me Won-Bin Cho will be a top 10 Redbird prospect by year’s end. I just wish I could share your enthusiasm for young Mr. Baez.

    But getting back to the original question, let’s take a look at the Cardinal position prospects of three years ago. Many of them were the same as now: Gorman, Herrera, Nunez, Yepez, Donovan. So we need to compare Burleson, Walker, and Winn to the guys who graduated from the 2019 list. Namely, Dylan Carlson, Randy Arozarena, and Tommy Edman. If Walker moves to a corner outfield as I expect, and becomes Arozarena or Carlson (take your pick) that would be a generally positive outcome. A smidge disappointing, but generally positive. Then if Burleson becomes the other guy, Randy or Dylan, that would in fact be a VERY positive development.

    And that brings us to Masyn Winn. If he becomes Tommy Edman — the overall MLB career performer, not the 2022 slugger or 2021 disappointment — that would make Masyn Winn a 3-4 WAR regular, and we would have to be overjoyed with that, right? So it’s a close call; I think I would lean toward the 2019 list for now.

    But in case we need a tie-breaker, the 2019 list also had 3rd baseman Elehuris Montero. And after his dreadful age-20 season in AA, and the missing Covid campaign, he has bounced back marvelously well. Last year he fairly clobbered AA at age 22 (.280 with 28 HR in 120 games), and now he’s absolutely killing it in AAA. He’s no Arenado of course, but the Rockies didn’t do as badly for themselves as some folks made out at the time. I should probably mention that the Cards also had Andrew Knizner, Edmundo Sosa and Adolis Garcia for sweeteners back then. No big deal, but worth citing for sure.

    So once again we see how surprisingly, almost shockingly productive the “mediocre” Cardinal farm system has been. I say “mediocre” because as Mr. Walton quite correctly pointed out in a recent podcast, the Birds have mistakenly been ranked middle-of-the-pack by mainstream prognosticators for many consecutive years. Well, I say mistakenly. Brian was much too diplomatic to say so. (Glancing at the Fangraphs grades from three years back, here’s how they saw St. Louis prospects: Knizner and Gorman, MLB regulars. Carlson, good bench player. Montero, marginal bench guy. And among the myriad names mentioned above, everyone else completely inconsequential, outside the top 300, which translates to less than 1 total expected career WAR.)

    in reply to: Minor League Game Thread – Week of April 12-18 #182537
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    Just a reminder. Combining Low-A and High-A last year, then-19-year-old Masyn Winn — away from the extremely pitcher-friendly environs of Roger Dean Stadium and Dozer Park — batted a stellar .320 in 185 trips to the plate.

    And furthermore, if we take those road numbers from 2021 and extrapolate to 160 games, Masyn would’ve hit 16 homers, 8 triples, and 44 doubles to go with that .320 average. And he’d have posted 52 steals in 56 tries.

    Based on his performance in Low-A last year as a teen, Masyn Winn probably should’ve been a consensus top 100 prospect. Across all four levels of full-season minor league ball last year, there were very few players who met these five qualifications: young for league, up-the-middle defender, 110 wRC+ or better, .60 BB/K or better, and 7.0 speed score or higher. Masyn Winn and Robert Hassell III were in fact the only two minor leaguers to satisfy all five requirements. (Both did so in Low-A at 19, before struggling upon their High-A promotions.) But I think everyone got too distracted by (1)the rather fanciful two-way possibility for Winn; and (2)his terrible performance in High-A last year.

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    Shohei Ohtani notwithstanding, the two-way thing was highly unlikely to ever reach fruition for Masyn. If he winds up a pitcher, so be it. But hitters stay healthier by a long shot, and are just generally more valuable over time. So that has naturally become the focus for Winn. Good for the Cards to not get drunk on his velocity and rush & ruin him, as they’ve done so despicably with Jordan Hicks and Johan Oviedo.

    And as to the other matter, anyone who merely makes it to High-A as a teenager has already accomplished something. A positive performance there is just gravy. And a poor performance by any player when they are multiple years young for their league should simply be ignored, assuming the player succeeded one level lower during the same season.

    Based on his total pro track record, estimating his 80th-90th percentile outcome, Masyn Winn could be Tim Anderson with more walks. He could be Jimmy Rollins without all the popups. Or maybe he’s just a future Tommy Edman, but at shortstop rather than keystone. And that’d be dandy too.

    in reply to: Cardinals Odds and Projections #181902
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    “73 MLB.com writers pick the Cardinals to miss the playoffs.”

    ———————————————-

    I checked the article and those 73 panelists picked the Padres, Mets, and Giants for the N.L.’s trio of wildcard slots. Let’s do a quick historical overview.

    The Padres haven’t won 80 games in a season since 2010. The Cards have won 86+ games in 12 of Mozeliak’s 13 full seasons in charge. And Fernando Tatis, Jr. is hurt.

    The Mets have had a better record than the Cardinals once in the past 13 years — that was in 2016 when NYM won exactly one more game than St. Louis. And Jacob DeGrom is hurt.

    I won’t quibble with the Giants pick. Because seemingly anything could happen there. I strongly suspect that nobody at MLB.com or anywhere else — including Frisco’s own organization — has any idea what to expect in 2022, since they just had the flukiest season in major league history, finishing 48 games over .500 with an old mediocre roster after four consecutive losing seasons.

    —————————————————

    So I don’t know how good the Birds will be, but I very much doubt they’ll be worse than all three of the Friars, Frisco, and Mets. My feet to the fire, I’ll stick with 88 wins. (The only prediction/projection that concerns me at all is the Vegas over/under at a depressingly modest 84.5, as the Redbirds are typically 2-4 wins higher than that in March. Vegas knows ballclubs better than PECOTA or ZiPS or anyone at MLB.com, in all likelihood. They have to.)

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