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oh I don’t know Bccran maybe trying something different for two years is a strategy worth 86M plus luxury tax. Goldy and Arenado aren’t getting any younger. It fails then back to the prior strategy no long-term commitment.
BDW, Jr. grew up in St. Louis as a big Cardinal fan and has followed them all of his life. But he’s also a conservative businessman who believes in consistency. He also doesn’t have arguably the largest market in baseball.
I am aware of BDW’s history which is why I didn’t single him out. I have seen the photo of him and Babe Ruth from 1948 at Sportman’s Park. I would also wager that a majority of MLB owners don’t have that kind of background.
I’m not a proponent of putting too many payroll eggs in one basket. A mid rotation horse or two and pen upgrades costs the same as a rock star starter.
I agree with 25, it would be nice if we jumped out and spent an extra 50 million and went and got an ace and a number 2 and become a WS favorite but based on the past it is highly unlikely! I think BW said it best! Our current bosses like the model of competing for the division and hoping to get hot in the playoffs over spending more and becoming a WS favorite and I get it! It is the fiscally responsible thing to do but as I get older I get less hopeful almost every year that we can pull off another 2011 miracle especially when our pitching staff is no better than it was last year and I’m convinced that ain’t gonna be good enough!
Some of the best young players I’ve seen with the Cardinals in a long time.
Some forget these numbers when our left fielder was healthy in 2021 –
.286/.352/.560/.912
34 Home runs
80 RBIJust hope he stays healthy in 2023 after they’ve changed his off-season workout regimen.
Just you wait and see. Somebody, either a pitcher or position player, will show up to Spring Training already injured. And if not, then shortly after spring training starts somebody will get hurt.
Some forget these numbers when our left fielder was healthy in 2021 –
Not sure what a left fielder has to do with pitching.
We will add to a very deep roster. We have assets and capital in addition.
I can’t imagine a reason to feel negatively about our positioning.VEB with a sneak peak at 2024.
The Mystery of the 2024 Rotation
With only 1 member of the current rotation locked up past 2023 and no pitching moves on the horizon, let’s examine what the 2024 rotation may look like.
A mix of extensions, prospects, and acquisitions looks most likely. https://t.co/RPvfbZacoD pic.twitter.com/7KGe6ZsnUH
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) December 18, 2022
The “increasing the payroll” talk feels more like the incremental cost of doing business rather than a Steve Cohen-type course change.
This is well-worded. I think when it was stated, most knew pretty much what it meant. Others hoped.
My understanding of ‘incremental cost of doing business’ is that increasing our payroll will not improve our chance of winnings unless we increase it more than competing teams increase theirs. I put the chance of the Cards doing that at zero. We will have to win another way.
As long as we stay second in attendance, and keep a lineup that brings fans thru the gates with scoring, the business model is working.
Why spend any of the profit margin on additional pitching when you’ve already met your goals?
Resolved: The Cards stopped being elite after 2015 because they DID increase payroll, but spent it foolishly on bad investments like Fowler, Ozuna, and numerous over-the-hill relievers.
If they had simply trusted their elite player development system, they would have had LOWER payrolls and BETTER teams over the past seven seasons. And who knows, they might still have that manager who actually won baseball games in October.
I’m more than willing to gripe about greedy cheapskate owners when it’s called for. Eat the rich, I don’t care. But I think it’s intellectually dishonest to blame the decline of the Cards into good-but-not-great on payroll inequities. They spent a ton of dough (and a pair of first-round draft picks, don’t forget) very unwisely on free agents, and made a truly foolhardy trade where they gave up not one, but two future #1 starting pitchers for a fat outfielder with an uneven track record.
These blunders did not arise from cheapness. Cheapness, gentlemen, had nada to do with it. As soon as the Cards get a real manager, they’ll be positioned very strongly for the future. Lots of young talent, majors & minors. Be of good cheer.
He did until he filled out the line-up card for the most important game he’d managed in the Big Leagues. Once that game began, he took on the look of something that could be termed surreal.
And bcc…are you saying you do not think he did a good job? IMO Marmol should have remained the bench coach and Skip Schumacher should have been hired as Mgr.
The organization has made mistakes, but they do a couple of things really well. They draft well and they play defense. Since 2000 they have a whopping one season of sub-.500, and that was almost 16 years ago.
As Bob Reed points out, they tend to stagnate some when they go away from their core principles of player development. But then again, not always. The Ozuna trade was a disaster, but the Goldschmidt and Arenado deals have worked out. Then again, again :-), don’t make any of those three deals and go with Voit, Wisdom. Alcantara, Gallen and others these last few years, and you probably are still riding the plus .500 streak while having lower player expenses.
“There are some that think Ollie did a pretty good job.”
And Marmol might deserve a lot of credit for the career years at the plate by both Goldy & Arenado. Maybe the extra days off for the durable duo had a lot to do with their batting prowess. Or maybe it was the input of Turner Ward, or some kernels of advice from noted hitter Albert Pujols. In any case, if Goldy and Arenado are at or above their career norms in 2023, then I’ll be inclined to give a chunk of credit to Ollie’s policies. And Marmol saw more talent in Pallante than I thought was there, or that anyone else thought was MLB ready. So good on him for that.
But all in all, here’s how I see the 2022 season. At the end of play on July 30th, the Cards were 53-48 and four games behind the Brewers in the standings. Things looked bad. And this, despite having two legit MVP candidates.
Why the mediocrity? Because of shaky pitching, and more specifically because at that point Ollie Marmol had given 13 starts to wildly unqualified pitchers like Naughton, Hicks, Thompson, and Oviedo, none of whom had ever come remotely close to succeeding as even a AAA starter, much less the majors. In those 13 starts, they averaged 3.1 innings with a 6.65 ERA. It’s hard to overstate how much damage that did. Games were lost that could have been won, and just as importantly the bullpen again and again was needlessly overtaxed.
I say “needlessly” because 10 or 11 of those 13 terrible starts could simply have been given to a Cardinal who already had shown an ability to start at both the Triple-A and MLB levels. (Woodford, obviously.) I honestly believe that 25 or more of the other current MLB managers would simply have given 10 or 11 starts to the guy with the MLB track record.
There’s plenty of other stuff, too, Cranny. Trying repeatedly to force-feed the leadoff spot to Dylan Carlson. Hitting Goldy in a non-RBI spot for weeks. Playing Yepez in the outfield over and over. And there’s more, but I’m beating a dead horse. Marmol was bad. Quite bad.
But at the trade deadline, Mozeliak bailed him out by acquiring not one but two starting pitchers, both of whom pitched lights-out over the final two months. Furthermore, the GM of Milwaukee fractured the team morale by trading away their closer. Thus, a near perfect storm swept Ollie into first place.
I’ve left out some bad, and left out some good, too, I’m sure. But you get the gist of my opinion.
Part of Albert coming back was Marmol.
If the model is player development, then starts have to go to players. I agree that Woodford should have gotten those starts. but perhaps there was some mutinous rumblings within the staff.
Marmol may have chosen to address his internal issues and give the starts to pitchers who fell into line. The dynamics involved are clearly speculative, but with the Cabrerra incident and Maddux leaving, it seems possible there were factions and dissention.
Giving starts to players other than Woodford may have had causes beyond Marmol’s ability to evaluate talent.BReed, great post. I think you are dead on with the starts MARMOL gave to guys simply not able or ready to start at the MLB level. Woodford was the obvious choice for those starts and it was talked about time and time again during the season….”Why isn’t Woodford starting?” Woodford was having a very good season and although he wasn’t burning up the radar like some guys, he was “pitching”! Hitting his spots, varying pitches ect…
The lineup card in game one, had that game won, until the pitching failed in the ninth, needing just two more outs.
Mr Reed, your post on the wrong starters mid season is on target. They gave starts to guys who shouldn’t have been starting.. and left out the one guy who has already proven effective starting! Makes you scratch your head about it, but seems like we are beating a dead horse: this is not new, we have been posting about it since April. Seems either the FO or Marmol don’t like Woodfords stuff; which is very concerning with the numbers he put up last year. Some say that there is friction between them.. I don’t think so.
Some say this, some say that…bottom line is when a guy is performing at a high level you play him: you don’t shuttle him back and forth to aaa. They have simply mis managed him but are to cowardly to admit it.
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