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Does anybody body think it was a coincidence that the report came out on the day of the College Football Championship game?
I wonder if the report on the Red Sox will come out on Super Bowl Sunday.
Guarantee that the general sports talk shows will have something else to talk about soon after.
forsch I almost always agree with you, but I see no way that Luhnow would not know that what they were doing was absolutely breaking the rules.
CC, do you believe that the Rox are just trying to get out of Arenado’s contract one year after signing it?
Maybe money is their motivation, but I don’t think the Rox trade Arenado unless they are overwhelmed.
MM3 I agree that Cora will be gone after MLB completes the investigation into the Red Sox. But I don’t understand why the Red Sox need to wait for the results of that investigation, this report should be bases enough to fire him!
I’ll try to explain my reasoning about Hudson in AAA one more time.
If at the end of Spring Training the Cardinals have six healthy and effective starters, someone has to move to the bullpen or AAA.
I think even if six starters are healthy and effective at the end of Spring Training, at some point some will get hurt.
I know Carlos has and can again pitch in relief. And Wainwright may also be effective in the bullpen. And KK has said he is willing to pitch in relief.
But, I don’t like the idea of taking someone from the bullpen to rotation, without a transaction period to stretch out. So for me, I want five starters in the STL rotation and a sixth starter starting regularly in AAA until needed.
So of the six most likely starters, which has an option (or options) and is least disrupted by going to AAA.
Again, I think the odds are small that the Cardinals are going to be fortunate enough to have six healthy effective starters at the end of Spring Training, so odds are no one (of the six) will need to put in AAA.
Part of the problem is MLB’s stupid replay system. I’m fine with replays, but using monitors and challenges to call for replays is simply stupid.
Replays should be called by a fifth umpire in the press box or similar location.
I’m shocked that after the Astros fired the Manager and GM for being complicit, that the person who masterminded and implemented the cheating is still employed by the Red Sox.
As soon as the Red Sox read that report they should have fired Cora on the spot and every minute they delay is an indictment against them.
The higher pick I’m referring to is the pick the team that signs Ozuna has to give up.
The lower pick is the pick the Cardinals would get if Ozuna is signed by another team.
I like Hudson. I like him more than many other fans because I value groundball pitchers more than many other fans who (I feel) put too much value in swing and miss pichers.
I just don’t think it is reasonable to expect to have six healthy and effective starters for very long. So I hide Hudson in AAA, ready to fill in when undoubtedly he will be needed.
Except in the unlikely case where the teams that signs Ozuna had already lost both their first and second round picks, the value of the pick the Cardinals get for Ozuna signing elsewhere will be less than the value of the pick the signing team gives up.
So for another team to sign Ozuna they must see
Ozuna > Castellenos minus the value of higher pick.For the Cardinals to sign Castellenos they must see
Ozuna < Castellenos plus value of lower pick.In other words the Cardinals must value Castellenos not only higher than any other team values him, they must value Castellenos more valuable than any other team values Castellenos plus the value of the difference between the two picks, plus take the risk that Ozuna waits until after the June draft to sign.
For me, Martinez’s value as a starter is too high to put him in the bullpen (even as the closer) if he is healthy and conditioned to pitch a starters work load.
So in the optimistic scenario where all the pitchers are healthy and effective in Spring Training, I would like to see Martinez and Kim as STL starters and (unfortunately for him) Hudson starting in AAA, until a need presented.
I’d have Hensley, Miller, and Brebia compete to be the 2020 closer (I don’t count on Hicks being the closer until 2021 or the very end of 2020 at the earliest.)
If healthy and effective, I would like to see Reyes piggy back for two innings after the starter least likely to pitch seven innings (Kim?).
I hesitate to say this because it is a totally unfair comparison, but to my memory the last time the Cardinals traded STL players for a minor league pitcher was … Wainwright. If this trade is half as successful, I’ll be ecstatic.
Why would “everything else be equal” between Ozuna and Castellenos? For any other team to sign Ozuna they have to give up a draft pick where they don’t for Castellenos. So if other teams see them as equal they would offer Castellenos a value of their draft pick more than they would offer Ozuna.
Would fans be happy if the Card sign (out bid other teams for) Castellenos and then Ozuna decides to wait until after the draft to sign (no draft pick for the Cardinals)?
Of course sometime in the future the Cardinals will win 95-100+ games in a season and be “elite”. How soon may be the question.
I don’t see how the Cardinals cannot be considered “elite” over the last decade or two. No matter how people try to rack the teams of the 2010’s decade, the Cardinals will be among the “elite”! (Unless you give cubs extra credit for being bad for a century prior.) And they rank even better in teams of the 2000’s century/ millennium.
To many evaluators, Reddon is almost as good as Arenado.
At least publicly, the Cardinals showed no interest in Rendon as a free agent where all it would have cost was cash and a draft pick.
Whatever the Cardinals offer the Rockies is a direct measure of how much better they see Arendo than Rendon minus the value of the draft pick but with the cost of paying someone to take Carpenter (if he agrees with the trade) or having an $18 million pinch hitter.
I think many fans expectations for the backup catcher are too high.
No one that plays once a week is going to hit well.
Thinking the Cardinals will sit a healthy Molina half (or even a third of) the time is unrealistic. Not only because of their respect for Molina, but also because of the pitching staff’s desire to pitch to Molina.
If he is only going to play once a week, a good young catcher is better off, in the long run, playing almost everyday in AAA than sitting on the bench.
To me the Cardinals looking for a veteran catcher in no way diminishes their interest in Kinzer as Molina’s successor. On the contrary, it may be proof that they want Kinzer to be ready to play (almost) everyday should Molina get hurt during the year or retire (not get an extension) after the season. It is not about Knizer having anything to prove at AAA, it is about being in the best condition to play regularly for STL.
I like Arenado a lot and I’m sure the Cardinals do also.
But how much more do the Cardinals like Arenado than Anthony Rendon? Do the Cardinals see Arenado, Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, and Tyler O’Neill better than Rendon? I don’t think so. And what do they do with Matt Carpenter?
For the decade the Cardinals and cubs had the same number of WS victories, the Cardinals played in more postseasons, and the Cardinals won many more regular season games. But because the Cardinals were clearly the better team for the previous century, that gives the cubs the edge in this decade? Yeah right.
The posting fee is based on guaranteed money, not incentives. I am sure there are clauses in the contract between leagues, that establishes what the posting fee is, that would allow a grievance/arbiter process for manipulation of the guaranteed money versus easy incentives.
Brian (or anyone else) correctly if I’m wrong, but I believe if we are talking EXTENSION, then we are talking of a salary of at least $16M AV for Molina.
After 2018, Wainwright had to wait until the Free Agency period in order to sign his contract because his guaranteed salary was cut by more than 20%.
So if Molina were to accept a salary of less than $16M, he would need to wait until November 2020.
So an extension now, during Spring Training, or during the 2020 season would mean a salary of at least $16M for Molina.
If the team is willing to consider an extension now, they must be willing to guarantee at least $16M.
Interesting, I’ll go with:
3-C-Yadi, Wieters, Knizner
5-IF-Goldy, Wong, Dejong, Edman, Carp
4-OF-Fowler, Bader, Ozuna, Jmart10-RHP-Flaherty, Hudson, Waino, Mikolas, Wacha, Cmart, Helsley, Gallegos, Gant, Brebbia
3-LHP-Miller, Webb, CabreraI have NO desire for even one cent of my money to go to Sinclair. So that means not only will I not subscribe to FSM, I will not subscribe to MLB Network or any other service and rebroadcasts Sinclair’s broadcasts. (I assume that what ever service would have to pay Sinclair a portion of my subscription fee.)
For those that would have preferred signing the 26 year old Harper over any 30+ player, even one as consistently good as Goldy, would you be happy signing a 31 year old Harper to a $200M contract?
Harper would have cost the Cardinals MORE than $200M more than Goldy costs. Because they would have had to outbid the “Phillies’ Crazy Money”. How much higher “Crazy Money” would the Phillies been willing to spend? No telling what the final cost would have been.
But, more importantly the Cardinals would not have had their team until the middle of Spring Training. I don’t know if it would have been possible to make a high enough offer in December to force Harper (Boris) from waiting out all teams. So the offseason planning would have been lost, even if they “won” Harper, in the end.
The way I see it, the Cardinals got the more consistent, higher floor, better defensive, better character player for much much less risk.
The Phillies got the higher ceiling, bigger name player.
It is very possible both teams will be happy at the end of these contracts.
But, I have much more confidence in the Cardinals being happy than I would be of the Phillies.
Bob,
Doesn’t your sureness that Fowler will fail, be a reason to keep (rarher than trade him) Jose?
I understand that you want the trade so that O’Neill will be the ‘Next Man Up’ in RF. But if it is inevitable that Fowler will fail then Jose will inevitably be needed as the fourth outfielder.
I know you have confidence in the minor leaguers, but you have to agree that as least for the first half of 2019, Jose would be a much better option as the fourth outfielder.
