2020 Cardinals line-up & rotation

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  • #119348
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Hudson was Pitcher of the Year at Memphis in 2018. He’s all done there…. he’s in the majors for good. I don’t get hearing about him not being in the 2020 Card rotation. Boredom?

    #119384
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Since Dakota Hudson has become the de facto topic at this thread, this seems like a good place to rant.

    Hudson was in my opinion one of the 25 or 30 best starting pitchers in the sport in 2019. Only 14 twirlers in all the major leagues threw as many innings with a lower ERA than Hudson. FIP can be a fascinating data point, but ERA describes reality and FIP is theory.

    Dakota Hudson versus FIP, covering all of his professional performances exceeding 25 innings. (And using Clay Davenport’s version of FIP.)

    2017 in AA, 2.53 ERA and 4.14 FIP
    2017 in AAA, 4.42 ERA and 4.78 FIP
    2018 in AAA, 2.50 ERA and 4.05 FIP
    2018 in MLB, 2.63 ERA and 5.07 FIP
    2019 in MLB, 3.35 ERA and 4.58 FIP

    On average Hudson beat his FIP by 1.44 runs.

    —————————-

    But small samples can mislead. Let’s just look at the samples of more than 110 innings.

    2017 in Double-A, ERA 1.61 lower than FIP
    2018 in Triple-A, ERA 1.55 lower than FIP
    2019 in the N.L., ERA 1.23 lower than FIP

    So, using only the largest sample sizes, he beats his FIP by an average of 1.46 runs. Now, is that the professional profile of someone with a specific repeatable set of skills? Or someone who gets incredibly lucky over and over and over? The former feels more likely than the latter to me.

    Stealing from a different thread:
    In 2014 and 2015 college pitcher Dakota Hudson threw just 17 innings each year. Then in 2016, with that paucity of major college pitching experience, he nevertheless dominated college baseball as a starting pitcher in the toughest conference, which resulted in his being drafted in the first round.

    Then in 2017 he dominated Double-A. Won the ERA crown and was Pitcher of the Year in his league. In 2018 he dominated Triple-A. Lowest ERA for anyone with 100+ innings, and again Pitcher of the Year. And then in 2019 he enjoyed conspicuous success as a starting pitcher in the major leagues. Why is a pitcher with this resume still dismissed by a great many people as some sort of fluke?

    Lastly, I believe Hudson was (understandably) overshadowed by Jack Flaherty’s historic second half of the season in 2019. Dak wasn’t Jack, but he was much tougher over the second half than the first — and especially during the final couple of months. In August Hudson allowed a .193 batting average and a .600 OPS. In September he permitted just a .163 average, and a .602 OPS.

    That career arc taken as a whole, and that finish, that final couple of months, both suggest to me a terrific pitcher just scratching the surface of his talent.

    #119430
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Bob, and everyone actually,

    What are the negatives against Helsley as a genuine rotation candidate? He seems to “look the part”. First year in the BP then starting after that was always how they seemed to break pitchers in dating back to Waino in 2006.

    #119433
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Short answer, Chitown, not enough evidence of sustainable health/durability. Ryan looked promising after tossing 132 innings in 2017. But then he threw fewer than 75 frames in both 2018 and 2019.

    And he looked very solid pitching out of the MLB bullpen. For me, that’s his fit going forward. Could be a real high-leverage asset in relief.

    #119446
    Avatarmudville
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    I think Huddy’s a No.2. I agree with MM3. It takes him an inning or an inning and a half to settle down. But once he does, the walks stop happening and then it’s ground ball, after ground ball, after ground ball … I expect him to outgrow that initial settling down period, and I think those errant HR’s will diminish, and when that happens, that inflated WHIP of his will come down, too.

    #119465
    AvatarOquendo11
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    I’ll try to explain my reasoning about Hudson in AAA one more time.

    If at the end of Spring Training the Cardinals have six healthy and effective starters, someone has to move to the bullpen or AAA.

    I think even if six starters are healthy and effective at the end of Spring Training, at some point some will get hurt.

    I know Carlos has and can again pitch in relief. And Wainwright may also be effective in the bullpen. And KK has said he is willing to pitch in relief.

    But, I don’t like the idea of taking someone from the bullpen to rotation, without a transaction period to stretch out. So for me, I want five starters in the STL rotation and a sixth starter starting regularly in AAA until needed.

    So of the six most likely starters, which has an option (or options) and is least disrupted by going to AAA.

    Again, I think the odds are small that the Cardinals are going to be fortunate enough to have six healthy effective starters at the end of Spring Training, so odds are no one (of the six) will need to put in AAA.

    #119503
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Better to demote Jack and keep him down for 20 days to manipulate his service time 🙂

    #119666
    Avatarbccran
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    There are 3 big ifs among the 6 starters vying for the rotation.
    I don’t think you want to trade one of the non ifs.

    #119966
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    J.P. Hill—VEB on the Card’s catching situation.

    With the Cardinals, Wieters has to contend not only with Yadier Molina’s iron-man mentality, but with the presence of backstop-of-the-future Andrew Knizner. Yadi will play as much as he wants.

    First off, I don’t think that Wieters returns. He’ll get a better deal and more playing time elsewhere. Knizner won’t be around long enough to be the Card’s starter (see Kelly). As for Molina, the iron-man mentality is getting as old as the declining Molina himself. The thing that is annoying to me is that Molina will play as much as HE wants. This has stifled the organization’s progress for more time than is acceptable. The team will need to acquire a below-par backup because of the lack of playing time that Yadi allows. No catcher of any value wants to sign on with us just to sit on the bench. Now what happens when Molina gets hurt… we get that sub-par backup in the starting lineup. And don’t get me started on his lack of effort when he very slowly makes his way to first base. It sets a very bad example. If the reasoning is that it protects him somehow from over-stressing his weakened legs… that’s on him.

    I get the legacy. But IMO it’s now fading at an even quicker rate. He is not the face of the CARDINALS anymore, although in his mind he will always be that. He really needs to retire gracefully as a career-long Card. THAT I’d give him a lot of credit for. No one in the organization has the bells to set Yadi straight. Ridiculous for a team looking towards the future. Just keeping it real.

    #119970
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I get the legacy. But IMO it’s now fading at an even quicker rate.

    Personally, I think the Cards know that Knizner isn’t going to be an every day catcher so they’re content to go with Yadi (who still is, even with his declining skills) until the next guy emerges. Catcher is not exactly a great position group league wide right now. Realmuto is an excellent player but past that, is it Grandal as the best catcher? That’s…not great.

    #119975
    Avatargscottar
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    #119983
    AvatarOquendo11
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    If one believes the Cardinals’ pitchers, they like having Molina catch because of his pitch calling ability. So it seems that the Cardinals’ pitchers like Molina’s iron man mentality.

    #119984
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Somebody in ownership, the FO or the manager has to grow a pair and tell him that his “Yadi Rules” free pass has expired and that the manager will now determine when he plays and when he sits and that it will be more often than in past years. We have the makings of a very good catcher coming along and he needs experience. How long will it take the Cardinals to realize that they will be left high and dry each time Molina has an injury PLUS he is declining in catching effectiveness. I think he knows his pitchers well but his backups has to be allowed to do the same video work as Yadi and actually game catch the starters more than every 40 or 50 games.(exaggeration).

    #119985
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <So it seems that the Cardinals’ pitchers like Molina’s iron man mentality. >

    The Iron Man is rusting and is expected to continue doing so. The pitchers did just as well as when the Iron Man was out for a month healing his junque problem and about the same with his thumb. Age is showing on Yadi and if he is talkng extension past 2020 the FO needs to take a long look at that.

    #119986
    AvatarGameCard
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    Excellent news on Wieters…hope we close the deal.

    #119987
    AvatarCardinals27
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    Not a good idea to send Jack down unless he is pitching poorly, or is injured. If anything they should be looking to lock him up to an extension. Buy out some of his arbitration time and free agent years. Especially of the uncertainty of a new bargaining agreement coming up.

    #119988
    AvatarCardinals27
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    My only contention with a Yadi extension is that has to take less money, a la Wainright.

    #120061
    Avatargscottar
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    #120063
    Avatarbccran
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    Good news regarding Liberatore and Gorman. Look forward to seeing them in Jupiter.

    #120327
    Avatarwildwill11
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    Kudos to you, at least one fan who has a clue. Saw in Post today opening day line up that did not include Edmonds in the line up? Unbelievably stupid. He is by far our best fielding 3rd baseman in years. He hit 303. He has pop in his bat. Is our front office and management this unbelievably stupid? The one guy that should not be in the line up is a certainty. And that is Matt Carpenter. If he plays, no one wishes he’d turn it around more than me. But his public statements about his own play last season should all give us a clue. Confidence is everything to an athlete. Not only is Carpenter older, slower, with a declining batting average since his 2nd year as a Cardinal, but he has obviously lost his confidence. Not a good recipe. I predict he is riding the pine by June.

    #120345
    Avatarbccran
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    Actually, Carp is working out extra hard and a number of people think he will rebound and have a good year. Edman is probably most valuable as a super floater to spell multiple starters.

    #120346
    AvatarGameCard
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    Edman is a starter all the time…period.

    #120356
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    GC, that is not what Mike Shildt said Sunday. Not that it seems to matter.

    Edman is going to play all around, including the outfield, but the word “starter” was not uttered, nor were the words “every day” or “all the time”.

    The audio is available on the home page. Shildt talks about Edman around the 27:00 point.

    #120365
    Avatarmudville
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    BW – GC is also trading Hudson despite mudville’s widely publicized statement to the contrary.

    #120372
    Avatarbccran
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    Last season, Ozuna had 29 home runs and 89 RBI. Martinez had 10 home runs and 42 RBI. The Cardinals ranked 19th in runs scored in MLB for the season.

    As we go into the 2020 season, here is how the starting OF is shaping up (at least to begin with) –

    Fowler – .238/.346/.409/.754
    Bader – .205/.314/.366/.680
    O’Neill – .262/.311/.411/.723

    Seems like the Cards are taking a pretty big risk on the
    young outfielders like Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, Williams, Dean, and Carlson coming through somehow, someway. Never quite seen a Cardinals OF with this much risk. It should be interesting. And perhaps fun to see how it plays out.

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