Paul Goldschmidt Thread

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This topic contains 468 replies, has 46 voices, and was last updated by stlcard25 stlcard25 6 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #74300
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    gscottar
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    I figured we might as well start a thread on Goldy since more than one writer has mentioned his name in conjunction with the Cardinals.

    As I mentioned on the Trade/Rumors thread there is obviously a lot to like in Goldschmidt. He is a legitimate MVP type player. The downsides are:

    one year of control
    doesn’t bat LH
    would have to give up a lot to get him
    would have to move Carp to 3B

    DeWitt has made comments about feeling confident the Cardinals have the ability to bring in big name players and be able to keep them long term once they see what St. Louis is all about. That theory has certainly worked in the past with guys like McGwire, Edmonds, Rolen, C. Carpenter, and Holliday, but it really hasn’t worked in recent memory. I don’t know if DeWitt was referring to Goldy or not but if we really felt like we could sign him long term I think we should strongly consider it.

    #74303
    bicyclemike
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    I would love to add Goldy to our lineup, although if Carpenter is still here we would suffer defensively at third. And it’s not like you could put Munoz there as a late inning defensive replacement.

    Management better not put much stock in the “St. Louis experience”, as that is risky. It might be more reliable under Shildt though. It seemed to be a good factor under LaRussa, but my sense is Matheny was not a strong player’s manager.

    #74307
    stlcard25
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    (Post deleted on edit, so repost)

    Goldschmidt would be a dream, if he’s really available. While he hasn’t quite been the hitter he was over that 2013-2015 stretch, he’s still very good and would look great in our lineup. I’ll address your concerns one at a time because I don’t personally think any of them besides #1 are that big of a deal.

    1. One year of control. This one is both good and bad in that he could be a Heyward type that comes for a season and then moves along. Of course that is something to be concerned about with any player. He’ll also cost less to acquire in a trade.

    2. He may not bat lefty, but elite hitters are a plus no matter what side they hit from. Goldschmidt has a career .899 OPS against RHP. I doubt we find some platoon lefty who will do better than that.

    3. May have to give up a lot to get him. Combined with #1 this is probably a concern, but the Cards have talent that would be attractive to a lot of other teams. Kelly or Knizner and Hudson, Weaver, Ponce, Gomber, etc in some combo would be a extremely competitive offer for the Dbacks.

    4. Moving Carp to 3B. Marp, like any player, probably benefits from a stable position. Rare is the player who can move around the field and play multiple positions well. I think that as his career has unfolded, he’s basically proven to be slightly below average to average at 3rd or 1st. He actually played 3rd pretty well when it was his primary position early in the year. He wasn’t as good later when they yo-yo’ed him back and forth when the Jmart experiment failed. Remember, Goldy is a plus defender at 1st. So would you rather have a slightly below average (at worst) defender with a plus bat at 3rd and a plus defender, plus bat at 1st or the current setup of average defense and bat at 3rd and average defense and plus bat at 1st?

    Sign me up for a shot at that trade. I’d rather have him than take a shot on Donaldson…and I actually like Donaldson for the Cards a lot this offseason.

    #74308
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    14NyquisT
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    I would absolutely love to have Goldschmidt. I would love to have Arenado. But that would still leave us looking for a left-handed bat or two. I doubt we get Harper.

    St’ Louis’ stock is way down but other cities have the same problem… Detroit, Oakland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, etc and so forth. Lousy places to play ball.

    #74309
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    NJ315
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    I am in the minority here. pass

    #74316
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Depends on the price. But you have to pay like he is only going to be here for a year

    #74317
    bicyclemike
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    Depends on the price. But you have to pay like he is only going to be here for a year

    Yep, you don’t give up too much for only a one-year guarantee. This is probably what keeps a deal from becoming reality. The D-Backs will want compensation based on St. Louis keeping Goldy for a few years. The Cardinals will offer based on the likelihood he walks after one year.

    But maybe the two sides can do what the folks in Washington cannot seem to do, and that is work out a compromise deal agreeable to both clubs. Perhaps they can use the old “player to be named later” scenario, and if Goldy stays that player is a good one or has a high ceiling (Hudson type), while if he walks that player is a fringe guy (Adams type).

    #74318
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    14NyquisT
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    In today’s Post Dispatch on the GM meetings.

    “The Cardinals, like most teams, spent the week operating on parallel tracks. They were both shopper and seller when talking with teams about trades. They are interested in learning what Arizona’s asking price is for first baseman and Silver Slugger-winner Paul Goldschmidt, just as they tried to assess what they could get in return from teams interested in outfielder Jose Martinez.”

    #74330
    Brian Walton
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    stlcard25, you likely were caught at the time the site randomly challenges us to log in again. If that happens again after you have written a post, make sure you hit the back button on your browser and copy your words before doing anything else. This has saved me more than once.

    One year on Goldy is not a Cards-like move. They have know by now that the shelf life of the “sell him on the city” idea expired long ago. I also do not like returning Carpenter to third.

    The kind of team that gets him will be one that is one piece away from a title.

    #74643
    Brian Walton
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    #74650
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    gscottar
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    I’m glad to see our name associated with Goldy. May be nothing imminent but we are headed down the right path here!!!

    #74651
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    mudville
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    I think Goldschmidt is the type of player personality that the Cardinals want. He’s not like Machado, or even Harper, who both have big ego’s. IMO, what could keep this trade from happening would be were extreme demands by Goldschmidt and his agent, or the D-Backs wanting somebody like Flaherty or Gorman as part of the deal. If this did happen, and if the stars are aligned properly:), I could see the Cardinals trading Carpenter, and still signing Donaldson. This trade, if it happens, could even help with signing Donaldson because the necessity of signing a big bat would be lessened, and the Cardinals wouldn’t feel as much pressure to offer Donaldson what he and his agent are demanding. I still don’t think the market for Donaldson is that strong because most teams, either have a third baseman already, or they are unwilling to get close to Donaldson’s demands. Also, the D-Backs want to dump payroll. I’d be surprised if Houston will take on as much of Greinke’s contract as the Cardinals would.

    It sure would be nice going into next season with Goldschmidt on first, Donaldson on third, and Bader, or maybe Thomas, A. Garcia, or Arrozorena leading off?

    #74652
    Brian Walton
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    I’ve seen no indication that Greinke is part of these talks.

    #74654
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    mspaid
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    gscottar:

    Who would we give up for Goldschmidt?

    #74655
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Mud, A.Garcia and his .281 OBP in AAA (3% bb on rate) leading off? Really?

    #74679
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    thejager
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    Much of what I think I have said several other places on the forum, and has been said above.

    -He’s a great player, checks every box
    -I don’t like that it moves Carp to 3b, that is a step back in defense I think even with upgrade at 1b
    -It’s for 1 yr…then we are back at the drawing table AGAIN for the 3rd offseason in a row, this time with an Ozuna sized hole too (which is still a hole to be filled, the size of it is still to be determined)
    -at least we would get a compensation pick if we don’t re-sign him
    -he is already 31, would we even WANT to re-sign him for what he will demand at age 32?
    -i think he has slowed in the last couple years, less running more injuries, even his slump this year was worrisome
    -he will be expensive in prospects to get, very expensive
    -if he comes with Greinke we need to include Fowler or they have to eat a ton

    New thoughts, which may have been brought up elsewhere, is that if wwe do a ARZ deal go big on it

    Goldy + Greinke + Lamb + Peralta
    for
    -We take on the full Greinke contract, and send Fowler in the deal (close to Vegas) taking on most of the money. This gives them a player that can rebound for low money and fills the holes we help create. Taking on this money also brings Lamb Peralta and Goldy prices down
    -Alex Reyes
    -Carson Kelly
    -Gyorko
    -Helsley
    -2 of Woodford/Gomber/Ponce or Daniel Hudson alone

    combine that with:
    -JMart to MIN for Rogers deal
    -Lane Thomas or Adolis Garcia + Junior Fernandez + Oviedo for Will Smith

    Carp, DeJong, Goldy, Peralta, Ozuna, Yadi, Wong, Bader
    Greinke, CMart, Jack, Mik, Wacha
    Smith, Hicks, Rogers, Waino, Leone, Brebbia, Gregerson, Mayers
    Pena (FA), Munoz, ONeill, Lamb/Carp

    We take on a lot of money in Greinke but get at least a year or two of Ace from him
    We get star for a year
    We get some future help from Lamb and Peralta
    We give up a lot of big prospects
    We are NOT dependent on re-signing Ozuna or Goldy in 2020 replaced with Oneill + Lamb in full time roles

    #74681
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    gscottar
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    mspaid

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    gscottar:

    Who would we give up for Goldschmidt?

    How about Weaver, Kelly, and Shreve?

    #74682
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    gscottar
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    Mudville, I don’t think Goldy and Donaldson both would work on this team because that would just make our LH/RH imbalance worse. That is a real issue that has to be considered. No way we would get rid of Carpenter unless we found another LH to replace him with.

    #74690
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    mudville
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    Here’s the link that says that the Cardinals are interested in both Goldschmidt and Greinke:

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2806487-mlb-trade-rumors-zack-greinke-paul-goldschmidt-package-deal-discussed

    Regarding Adolis Garcia, besides having plus plus speed, IMHO, this player just reeks with athleticism.
    For a more objective answer, while adopting part of Brian’s rationale for evaluating a player, I’ll just say that Garcia received a $2.5M signing bonus, and he’s only been in the system (and the US) for 2 years and he’s already had a call up to the major leagues. That’s says something about what the scouts and coaches think about him.

    #74699
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Garcia may end up being useful but nothing indicates he is ready to be our leadoff hitter has you suggested. In fact, a lot of evidence to the contrary. I like my leadoff hitters to get on base.

    #74704
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    mspaid
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    gscottar:

    Makes sense.

    #74705
    stlcard25
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    Mudville, I don’t think Goldy and Donaldson both would work on this team because that would just make our LH/RH imbalance worse. That is a real issue that has to be considered. No way we would get rid of Carpenter unless we found another LH to replace him with.

    I somewhat agree, with all other things being equal. However, I would argue that we need *good* hitters, regardless of handedness. For example, Carpenter is an elite hitter. Someone like Moustakas, even from his good platoon split, is not elite. In fact, without looking at the exact stats I’d venture that Goldy and Donaldson are both better hitters against RHP than Moustakas is, even with the platoon weakness.

    A very big issue was that our four lefties (Fowler, Wong, Carpenter, Garcia) all basically tanked or had prolonged cold stretches this year that really exposed the team to RHP. *If* we could get wRC+ of 110 from Fowler, 105 from Wong, 130 from Carpenter and something around 95-100 from a bench lefty, the platoon weakness would be fairly minimized. None of those numbers would be crazy unexpected from those guys, but they would need to perform.

    #74789
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    Cardinals2016
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    #74949
    Brian Walton
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    A good analysis on the low demand for first basemen. It suggests to me that few clubs might try to trade for Goldschmidt and none look particularly promising.

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/11/24/18109308/mlb-free-agents-2018-first-base-cj-cron-justin-bour-derek-dietrich

    #75006
    Brian Walton
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    Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says he keeps hearing Goldschmidt to the Astros.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/11/24/how-rocco-baldelli-plans-manage-twins/rDF6tDkouWXDaWmnxWeSMN/story.html

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