Nolan Arenado trade thread

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  • #118562
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    What the heck? Let’s go ahead and have thread about this. Jeff Passan is dancing around the question of involved teams…

    “As the Colorado Rockies search for potential trade partners, two teams in particular have intrigued them, according to sources: the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.”

    #118564
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It is going to take someone smarter than me to explain how if the Cubs cannot afford Bryant the next two years, then how could they afford Arenado to replace him? Multiple big league players to Colorado in return?

    #118565
    Avatar1964cards
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    I would agree Brian. I would be surprised if Colorado trades Nolan to either team. Both of these clubs have spent the off-season speaking about financial constraints. The Cubs focused on potentially offloading contractual commitments of several position players (e.g. Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber). The Cards would need to offload two aging players with large contracts plus prospects for such a deal to make any sense.

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #118566
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    About the Cardinals, the only two players Passan mentions in trade are Fowler and Carpenter. So I am not sure he put a lot of thought or investigation into this. It reads more like what an unhappy Cardinals fan would hope, no matter how low the odds might seem… 😉

    #118568
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t understand Passan’s article. Is he saying the Cardinals would trade Fowler and Carpenter to the Rockies? Why in the world would the Rockies want them? The answer is they wouldn’t.

    And the Cubs would trade Bryant to the Nats but then get Arenado from the Rockies for who? Contreras? I am not saying Passan is completely off with all of this but the way his article is worded makes no sense.

    As for the Cubs not being able to afford Arenado maybe they are willing to make an exception for such a big time player. Who knows?

    I don’t see any of this happening.

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    #118573
    AvatarCardinals27
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    If, and it is a big if, what might an Arenado to us look like. I am assuming, Gorman, or Montero, Arozarena, O’Neill, or Thomas, Reyes possibly, plus either Fowler, or Carpenter.

    #118576
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Arenado is a very good player, but how much of his value is tied up in Coors (and the NL West in general)? I wouldn’t trade tons of talent to get him, especially at the salary he’s commanding for the foreseeable future.

    #118577
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I agree with you, gscottar. It might be fine for a national audience, but any of the mentioned teams’ followers are likely scratching their heads over what he wrote.

    FWIW, my take is that if the Cards wanted to make a big move at third, they should have just signed Rendon. That would have only cost one pick and not a boat load of players. Sure, if they could unload a bad contract, go for Arenado, but as noted already, why would Colorado take damaged goods for a superstar?

    #118578
    Avatargscottar
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    OK, I read Passan’s article again. Here is how I now interpret it.

    The Cubs would send Bryant to the Nats or some other team. They then would send Contreras and an underperforming veteran (Heyward maybe) to the Rockies for Arenado. So in theory the Cubs could shed over $40M (although they would have to eat some) to get Arenado and his $35M. If I am the Rockies that trade doesn’t work for me. I would want a lot more than that from the Cubs.

    As for the Cardinals they would send “major league talent” plus either Fowler or Carpenter to the Rockies for Arenado. Passan doesn’t clarify who the “major league talent” is. Is it Flaherty? Hudson? CMart? That bit of information would be useful to know.

    I still see this as something Passan just threw out on a slow news day.

    #118579
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Updated: Contreras is estimated to make $4.5 MM. Bryant’s estimate is $18.5 MM. Heyward is $20 MM. That totals $43 MM, or $8 MM more than Arenado is paid.

    More importantly, why would the Rox take on four ugly years of Heyward’s salary ($86 MM for 2020-2023)? And if the Cubs have to pay it down, then they don’t save any money. It is voodoo math…

    P.S. I forgot to add back in salary for whoever the Cubs would get in return for Bryant. Surely they wouldn’t just trade him for minor leaguers. That salary would cut into the voodoo $8 MM savings…

    Updated thrice… sorry…

    #118580
    Avatargscottar
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    I was counting Heyward’s salary that would be going to Colorado or at least a portion of it. Passan mentioned an “under performing veteran” the Cubs would send to the Rockies. Now why the Rockies would want an under performing veteran I do not know.

    Heyward 21
    Bryant 18
    Conteras 4

    That is 43M. Arenado is at 35M.

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    #118582
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I re-read your post and updated my answer above…

    #118584
    Avatargscottar
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    I agree Brian. That deal makes no sense for the Rockies.

    #118585
    AvatarSoonerinNC
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    Arenado is the one I would love to see the Cardinals get. What an infield if we had him to go along with DeJong, Wong and Goldschmidt. Also an ideal #3 hitter. I would give up quite a bit to get him.

    I agree with Brian though Rendon would have also been a great pick up.

    #118589
    Avatargscottar
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    Not to mention that you would only be guaranteed to have Arenado for two years since he has an opt out. How much would you be willing to give up for two years? This just doesn’t sound like something the Cardinals would do.

    #118593
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    The Cards gave up a ton for Goldy and one guaranteed year.

    #118594
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The huge risk is that Arenado plays out the rest of his deal and fades into mediocrity or beyond. If you get him for two years, that’s not the worst of it. IMO

    #118596
    AvatarCardinals27
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    They also gave a lot for 2 years of Ozuna.

    #118597
    AvatarGameCard
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    Goldschmidt turned out to be an excellent deal for the Cardinals. I am sure the Cardinals always thought they could sign him and they were right. Betts is a big risk because there are indications that he wants to be a free agent.

    #118605
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Bryant being traded has 0% to do with his salary FYI. I have not read through all of the above comments yet, so not saying anyone on here assumed that.

    The problem is that all teams know he is going to be dealt, but Theo is asking for a ridiculous package. It was explained to me that if he got his wish, from the Cards, they would be sending back Flaherty, Carlson and Gorman (Direct quote).

    He will be in a different uniform by Aug 1 at the absolute latest.

    #118616
    Avatargscottar
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    Arenado is in the absolute prime of his career. Arguably a top 5 player in all of MLB. I don’t think we can say that for Goldy any longer so comparing 2 years of Arenado to 2 years of Goldy isn’t the same. If I am the Rockies I would be asking for the moon.

    And Arenado is a much much better player than Bryant. Theo isn’t going to get what he think he is going to get. Bryant is still a good player but he hasn’t developed into the superstar they thought.

    What would it take from the Cards to get Arenado? How about Fowler, O’Neill, Knizer, Montero, and Reyes?

    #118620
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    gscottar asserted:

    “And Arenado is a much much better player than Bryant.”

    Let’s look at their fWAR over the last five years – the entire time Bryant has been a major leaguer.

    fWAR Bryant Arenado
    2015 6.1 4.5
    2016 7.9 5.0
    2017 6.7 5.7
    2018 2.3 5.7
    2019 4.8 5.9
    avg. 5.6 5.4
    2020 age 28 29
    #118621
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    How about Fowler, O’Neill, Knizer, Montero, and Reyes?

    Fowler isn’t waving his NTC and it’ll cost more than that for Arrenado. You would most definitely have to include Gorman in any trade package for him with Gorman being the centerpiece prospect.

    #118622
    Avatargscottar
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    Look at the last two years. Bryant peaked in his MVP year of 2016 and hasn’t been the same since. Arenado has been very consistent.

    • This reply was modified 11 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    #118624
    Avatargscottar
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    Fowler isn’t waving his NTC

    How do we know that? Colorado is closer to his home in Las Vegas and he is a former Rockie.

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