January 13, 2020 at 7:06 pm #119456Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
Well, things change, but it wasn’t like Arenado’s contract is old news. He signed it less than 11 MONTHS ago! I believe the Rockies are not motivated to trade unless they are blown away. Including Carp would not blow anyone away – it just means the Cards have to add more value.
To that point, the Cardinals eating money on Carpenter’s contract, every dollar piles onto the $35 MM per year more they have to assume just to pay Arenado.
To simplify, if it is a one-for-one trade straight up, Arenado for Carpenter, the Cards add $16.5 MM per year (35-18.5). And the Rockies save the same amount, of course. Maybe that is not enough for the Rockies to do the deal…
So, if the Cards have to pay down $5 MM per year of Carp’s deal, then they add a net $21.5 MM per year, and so on…
January 13, 2020 at 7:08 pm #119457
- This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Brian Walton.
The best comp trade I have seen was the Yankees trade of Stanton. Stanton was coming off an MVP year with a 7.3 fwar. (Numbers Arenado has never reached). Arenado has shown to be more consistent but Stanton had shown higher upside. Arenado has a 2 yr opt out. Stanton’s was 3 years away at the time of the trade. In value I would say they were very similar.
What did the Marlins get in return. First they took back $21 million in salary for 2 years of a 2 war or less player. (Very similar in value to Fowler with slightly less salary). They got the Yankees #10 prospect and a non top 30 prospect.
In addition the Marlins agreed to pay $30 million if Stanton didn’t opt out.
What would a similar Cardinal pkg look like? I would say Fowler, Williams and maybe Elledge. Much less than what I have seen thrown around.January 13, 2020 at 7:09 pm #119459BlackHillsCardParticipantFree
So Bob, let me get this straight:
You think the Cardinals would trade for Arenado who makes $35M/Year and would also part of Marp’s contract if he waves his NTC?January 13, 2020 at 8:11 pm #119468Oquendo11ParticipantFree
CC, do you believe that the Rox are just trying to get out of Arenado’s contract one year after signing it?
Maybe money is their motivation, but I don’t think the Rox trade Arenado unless they are overwhelmed.January 13, 2020 at 8:16 pm #119471PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
Any proposed trade for Arenado better have Gormon in the equation, or Colorado will not even look Mo in the eyes. Gorman, Gant and Knizer at least gets their attention….but the Cards are going to have to even sweeten the pot a bit more to get it done.January 13, 2020 at 9:13 pm #119478CardsFanInChiTownParticipantFree
Dudes and Dudettes, 35M a year…. it’s not like he is some sort of bargain for a few years. Not picking on Pugs, but his was most recent(sorry Pugs), Gorman and Knizner alone is WAAY to much! Salary, opt out, etc… not ideal at all!
Once again, I don’t see this getting done or even into advanced talks.January 13, 2020 at 9:38 pm #119482PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
I actually agree with you, CardsFanInChiTown. And that is why Arenado will not be a St. Louis Cardinal. I doubt that Colorado would consider anything less than a Gorman-Knizner-Gant-Bader package for Arenado. And it’s also unlikely that Mo would part with those four……but I sure as heck would…..in a heartbeat.January 13, 2020 at 10:05 pm #119484ILcardfanParticipantFree
I just don’t see the reason to bring in arenado other than for win now. If we are as loaded as we think we are at 3rd in the minors then we might as well take our chances again with carpenter this year and if he blows again then maybe you look at a 2-3 year rental to fill the gap until some of the youngsters are ready. I see no need to add a long term, huge dollar contract at that position.January 13, 2020 at 10:15 pm #119485atripleshyofthecycleParticipantFree
We are never as loaded as we think we are in the minors. Not all prospects pan out, even the top ones. Arenado is an elite defender who brings a bat with him that would vastly upgrade our offense.
The Cardinals have won a lot of games in the last 15 or so years by grabbing a few top players to play in with their youth. Grabbing Arenado would be a really good move if the price is right.January 13, 2020 at 11:17 pm #119488LACardFanParticipantFree
The best comp trade I have seen was the Yankees trade of Stanton.
I actually thought of this today, and concur, the Stanton trade is the best comp.
The biggest difference is the Marlins drew 1.7 million fans in 2016 and the Rockies drew 2.9 million fans last year.
But, yes, the Rockies have spent $0 on free agency this year, indicating they are maxed out. $34 million worth of salary relief is valuable to them.January 13, 2020 at 11:59 pm #119490GameCardParticipantPaid - Monthly
Is Nolan Gorman, Zack Thompson & Jake Woodford an acceptable offer for Arenado.January 14, 2020 at 12:25 am #119491Bob ReedParticipantFree
“So Bob, let me get this straight:
You think the Cardinals would trade for Arenado who makes $35M/Year and would also part of Marp’s contract if he waves his NTC?”
Honestly, I don’t know, BHC. Some teams are more obstinate than others when it comes to “eating” player salary. I only know that I would be willing to give my stamp of approval to my above-suggest swap: Arenado for Carp, Knizner, O’Neill and a non-elite non-MLB pitcher. And yes, $4-6M paydown on Carpenter’s contract. At least for the 2020 season.
So, Colorado saves a couple hundred million overall, and roughly $20M for 2020, and the gap between Arenado & Carpenter is at least potentially counterbalanced by the dual upgrades at catcher and corner outfield. (Rockies are currently an astonishing half a win below replacement level in left field, per Fangraphs depth charts.)
But let’s hash this out in some detail. Let’s try and think like Mozeliak. How about this. The Cards are going to have to give Arenado something in dollars and cents to get him to drop the opt-out. (That’s by rule. Part of the CBA.) So let’s say that they add on a year to the end of his deal, at $30M. That’s a pretty nice sweetener, I would think.
But in so doing, the Cardinals also request that Arenado re-structure the first couple of years (2020 & 2021) reducing his salary by $6M per year, and then redistributing that $12M evenly over the final six years of his contract. The Birds have a LOT of player payroll coming off the books after 2021, so this feels like a fiscal fit to me.
I don’t know how much Arenado would like to join his good friend Goldschmidt on an annually competitive team. Maybe he’s getting pretty excited about the prospect. Or maybe instead he adores Denver and hates humidity, I dunno. But I think this might be a time to get creative.January 14, 2020 at 5:14 am #119498BeopigParticipantFree
SO you think the Cards are going to have to give up that much more than the Yankers did for Stanton? Just not seeing itJanuary 14, 2020 at 7:11 am #119501OnyxgemParticipantFree
Cards will have to give up at least what Yankees did if not more to get him….January 14, 2020 at 7:21 am #119502stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
But I think this might be a time to get creative.
Bob, I might be inclined to agree, although I’m not sure I see a way that Carpenter would waive his no trade clause to go to a dumpster of a team in Colorado. I think it will be prospects only in a trade like that, with potentially another team getting Carpenter or Fowler to balance the money a little.January 14, 2020 at 8:20 am #119506
Some general thoughts.
I have no idea why the Rox signed Arenado only to trade him before the contract kicks in.
Taking on Arenado’s full contract without them taking back salary puts the Cardinals into tax territory. I dont see that as a reality.
Arenado’s contract is full market value. Not much excess value there. The Cards could have made themselves just as good by spending $34 million elsewhere and not giving up talent.
The Cardinals probably need to give up more than the Yankees did but not much more.January 14, 2020 at 9:25 am #119509atripleshyofthecycleParticipantFree
I agree with Carioca, except for the speculation about being able to spend $34 million and make ourselves just as good. One elite player is better than two than add up to the same WAR. And while we could have been bigger players for a guy like Rendon, there is no guarantee that our equal monetary offer would have been accepted. But, honestly, that is just quibbling. He makes a good point, but that is the past. If we can get Arenado for something similar to what the Yankees gave up, then I am fairly certain that makes our team a good bit better. I like Bob’s proposals.
All that said, I still think a trade is unlikely. But I’m not rooting against it, for sure. I like building up a really good defensive team that can also hit (I also agree with Bob that Bader needs to be put in CF and left there).January 14, 2020 at 9:36 am #119511LACardFanParticipantFree
I have no idea why the Rox signed Arenado only to trade him before the contract kicks in.
I would have to guess that it has something to do with the fact they went 91-72 in 2018 and 71-91 in 2019…Then Arenado came out and said it feels like they are a rebuilding club.
One elite player is better than two than add up to the same WAR.
I believe teams tend to have better records when they have eight 2 WAR guys than one 8 WAR guy, a couple of 2 WAR guys and a couple of people with zero to negative WAR. Just compare the Angels to the Cardinals…
When you go after a 6-8 WAR guy is when you have a team filled with 2 WAR players and you are looking for an upgrade. And when you trade tha 6-8 WAR guy is when you have numerous holes to fill and you are budget constrained.January 14, 2020 at 11:04 am #119520skippy mckillParticipantFree
Is Nolan Gorman, Zack Thompson & Jake Woodford an acceptable offer for Arenado.
Swap out MCarp for Woodford and I think you have a deal. Probably need another prospect too, maybe like Knizner.
January 14, 2020 at 11:36 am #119523stlcard25ParticipantPaid - AnnualJanuary 14, 2020 at 12:05 pm #119525
- This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by skippy mckill.
I feel like we have moved back to the 1990’s when most fans were (and even reporters) were unaware how important contracts were to player value. I like Arenado but I don’t see much excess value in that contract.January 14, 2020 at 12:11 pm #119526
So Cards-Rox have been talking for 4-5 and just now talked names? Seems hard to believe.
Hudson, Knizner, and Carpenter seems high but I guess it depends on how you value those players.January 14, 2020 at 12:13 pm #119527Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
I find it conflicting that the Rockies don’t have to take on salary, yet the Cardinals would have to move Carpenter, and/or Fowler to make Arenado’s hefty salary fit in.January 14, 2020 at 12:25 pm #119530Oquendo11ParticipantFree
I would prefer to send a lower profile pitcher than Hudson, but I certainly see why the Rockies would want the pitcher that throws the most groundballs in the majors.
This deal doesn’t work unless Matt Carpenter is moved.
I think (I’m an optimist) Carpenter’s contract will look very good being the firstbase man at Coors.
Arrendo’s offensive numbers probably drop at Busch, but will still be elite.January 14, 2020 at 12:36 pm #119531gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
What did you think of my trade idea?
Knizner plus an outfielder not named Bader, plus Matt Carpenter with a little salary relief included (say $3-5M per year), plus a modest but not inconsequential sweetener from the minor league pitching ranks like Kodi Whitley or Genesis Cabrera or Johan Oviedo.
Bob, I think you are close but it will take a little more than that.
I would say Carp+$8M/yr, O’Neill, Knizer, Oviedo and Cabrera.
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