November 14, 2019 at 8:44 am #114334
Isn’t signing a Molina extension at this time “more of the same” creating future payroll flexibility issues?
Yes it is. The Cardinals extension fetish to aging internal players is boxing them into a corner where they can’t add from the outside, but perhaps that is intentional.November 14, 2019 at 9:17 am #114337November 14, 2019 at 9:55 am #114342thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
Waino and Molina are different…. There is no Carp on the wall in the outfield, but Waino and Yadi…they are.
Adn they deserve it.
yes, the team has given one particularly questionable extension to Carp. But it is not the same as going a bit farther than normal on a couple aging legends in the Cardinals history.November 14, 2019 at 10:25 am #114345Bw52ParticipantPaid - Annual
So its okay top hamstring the team by giving Molina a extension because he used to be really good ? he is average anymore ..father time catches everyone.Molina doesn
t deserve a huge extension.If its reasonable like Wainwrights that's the smart move.Dont stifle Knizner`s development to satisfy a aging,declining player wwho has missed many games dues to injury the last couple of years.Overpaying for past performance that will hamper future moves is not a smart business choice.November 14, 2019 at 10:28 am #114347Cardinal in FranceParticipantFree
Yadi has got a whole year to go yet, why all this extension talk now? Let’s wait for ST and a few months into the 2020 season to see how how he’s doing and how he’s feeling physically before thinking about an extension. And it’s gotta be one year, not two. It’s not like he’s going to jump to another team.November 14, 2019 at 10:31 am #114351MPWR2ParticipantFree
The Cardinals have been very clear they don’t want rentals.
On the other end, the Cardinals jumped at the chance to acquire an impact right-handed bat despite having no guarantees he’d wear red for more than a year. Based on their experience with prior rentals like Matt Holliday and Mark McGwire, who ended up committing long-term, the Cards believed they had a chance of retaining Goldschmidt beyond 2019, and indeed they struck a five-year, $130 million extension in spring training.
“When you do a trade like that, you make the trade assuming he’s going to be a one-year rental, because otherwise, you’re setting yourself up to make a bad decision trying to justify the trade that only works if he stays around five or six years,” said Cardinals GM Mike Girsch. “We were hopeful. We’ve had good success with one-year rentals who have come to St. Louis, enjoyed the environment we have, the fan base, the full stadium and everything else, and signed here. We’ve had success doing that over the last 20 years and were hopeful that would happen again. But you’ve got to make the trade assuming it’s a standalone, and if you’re not comfortable with it as a standalone, then we wouldn’t have done it.”November 14, 2019 at 10:45 am #114353
Interesting, MPWR2, but that is not in conflict with the org being averse to rentals. My bet is that Girsch and Co. had to prove to DeWitt that the Goldy trade would stand on its own before he let them do it. However, had they not gotten the extension done, you can bet Girsch would not have been bragging about the trade later.
Here is what DeWitt himself said on rentals. He did not say rentals are impossible, but the big ones are the toughest.
“Historically, we haven’t done that. Rentals are hard things to do. Every single night, these games are gut-wrenching, whether you win or lose. But to look down the road … I’ve never been a believer that going all in on an individual player for a month or two and giving up a big part of your future makes a lot of sense. You’re just setting yourself up for failure although you never rule out making a move depending on who’s available and the asking price. But this hasn’t been our experience and I don’t think it’s changed.”
So, let’s get specific. We know Goldschmidt was open to an extension. In addition, he was set to make just $14.5 MM in his one committed season. On the other hand, we know Betts is not open to an extension and we don’t know what he will make this coming season, with estimates at $27.7 million, close to double what they committed (on top of players) for Goldy. Betts would immediately become the Cards’ highest-paid player, by about a third.
Comparable situations on the surface, perhaps, but different underneath.
So what would it take to get Betts and would DeWitt sign off in a year with a flat payroll and little flexibility? I sincerely doubt it. That is the question that matters.November 14, 2019 at 10:47 am #114354
At my age I know that I need an interpreter to explain scribbler’s scribbling on stats. Example:
“These questions are well founded, as most of Wong’s expected numbers fell well below his actual numbers. Wong’s .334 wOBA outperformed his .308 xwOBA, which actually hovered right around his career average of .310. His .423 slugging was also well above his .368 xSLG, and his .285 batting average was much better than his .259 xBA. One of the reasons for these disparities is Wong’s average second percentile exit velocity of 83.6 mph and his 7th percentile barrel percentage of 2.5 percent.”
After 80 years wandering this earth I must admit that people have gone stark raving mad to inject this kind of micro-analysis into a sport designed for kids to play. Geeks are now ruling the earth (along with internet trolls)….lol A good day to all. I am still laboring trying to figure out how a WAR is computed and proven.November 14, 2019 at 11:22 am #114359
So its okay top hamstring the team by giving Molina a extension because he used to be really good ? he is average anymore ..father time catches everyone.Molina doesnt deserve a huge extension.If its reasonable like Wainwrights that’s the smart move.Dont stifle Knizner`s development to satisfy a aging,declining player wwho has missed many games dues to injury the last couple of years.Overpaying for past performance that will hamper future moves is not a smart business choice.
I tend to agree. This is a business, not a charity. Folks on this board have said for years that contracts should be about the present and the future instead of the past yet the Cardinals continue to give out lifetime achievement awards. It really isn’t smart.
Like BW52 said, I don’t have a big problem with Wainwight’s extension because it is a relatively small amount. The only way I would consider a Molina extension is if he is willing to accept a significant reduction in salary and by significant I mean at least half of what he is making now. I wouldn’t pay him a penny over $10M in 2021 and even that irritates me.November 14, 2019 at 11:41 am #114362Oquendo11ParticipantFree
Brian (or anyone else) correctly if I’m wrong, but I believe if we are talking EXTENSION, then we are talking of a salary of at least $16M AV for Molina.
After 2018, Wainwright had to wait until the Free Agency period in order to sign his contract because his guaranteed salary was cut by more than 20%.
So if Molina were to accept a salary of less than $16M, he would need to wait until November 2020.
So an extension now, during Spring Training, or during the 2020 season would mean a salary of at least $16M for Molina.
If the team is willing to consider an extension now, they must be willing to guarantee at least $16M.November 14, 2019 at 12:10 pm #114367forsch31ParticipantFree
Oquendo, you are correct. The least amount the Cardinals could pay Molina on an extension for 2021 is $16 million.November 14, 2019 at 1:13 pm #114371
So let him go to free agency and then offer him a contract similar to Wainwrights but somewhat more because of more playing time; however, keep the incentives in line too.November 14, 2019 at 1:24 pm #114374
Well, I had been working on an article about this so your discussion hurried me into completing it.November 14, 2019 at 2:45 pm #114391GameCardParticipantFree
Good, thoughtful article Brian.November 14, 2019 at 3:31 pm #114394
I totally agree. This extension idea should be tabled until next November.November 14, 2019 at 4:07 pm #114397Bw52ParticipantPaid - Annual
Nice article and exactly right on the mark.If Molina shows he can still be a factor then talk a Waino-type deal.If YM no like then go play elsewhere.November 15, 2019 at 6:47 am #11442614NyquisTParticipant
Ya know, I’ve been reading some comments here that are not complimentary regarding the FO. Its starting to settle in.November 15, 2019 at 6:52 am #11442814NyquisTParticipant
This is from a story at VEB:
Also making matters more confusing is that his defense has, to me at least, clearly declined quite a bit. He now rates as an average defending catcher, which is nothing to sneeze at, but I can’t imagine he’ll get better with age. All of which is to say you have a 37-year-old Yadi coming off his worst season since 2006 who wants an extension, who appears to be a better hitter than he is, who probably still thinks he’s elite at defense, and whose most recent compensation is $20 million. Like I said, it’s complicated.
Its about time that the front office starts using some sense when passing out extensions. This is our Cardinals… how about thinking about wins versus losses at least sometimes.November 15, 2019 at 6:54 am #114429
In a way, Waino has set the path for Molina. Even this years contract ($5 mil + 5 mil incentives) is palatable. Something similar in the 2020 offseason (start in Nov 2020) should be acceptable to Yadi but I agree that his defense is slipping and so should the salary. But, I think Yadi has the smarts to be an excellent coach or manager and should start heading in that direction.November 15, 2019 at 8:05 am #1144411964cardsParticipantPaid - Annual
I agree with both Brian’s article and VEB comments. It appears that ownership will try very hard to keep the lid on payroll. As such, I hate to see the franchise lock up significant amounts of payroll on aging veterans whose productivity is declining or show significant risk of decline.
On a side note … there is nothing worse than to see iconic players continue on past their prime. It is painful to see the decline in Albert’s performance. It is my perception that Yadi has not declined as significantly to this point, but it is only a matter of time. I do not want to witness the same for Yadi.November 15, 2019 at 8:43 am #114444
It could also happen with Wainwright. The margin becomes thinner and thinner. I know less about Molina’s mindset, but Wainwright is probably the most positive player I have ever encountered. While that is admirable, it makes him less objective and more likely to push on, just one adjustment or tweak away from getting it back together.
I still remember painfully watching Bob Gibson getting shelled in 1975 at age 39. He walked away before the season ended. It did not change his earlier accomplishments one bit, but I have always wished he hadn’t hung on too long. At least, it wasn’t in a Pirates uniform (or the like).November 15, 2019 at 9:13 am #114448forsch31ParticipantFree
Maybe they could add 1 year at $16 million with some small incentives. Then have an option for 2022 for even less base with more in incentives. They could cut the base to $12.8 million in 2022.November 15, 2019 at 9:31 am #114449
They clearly could, and it would be the path of least resistance. But what would be the reasons to rush to do that?November 15, 2019 at 9:47 am #114450
Maybe they could add 1 year at $16 million with some small incentives. Then have an option for 2022 for even less base with more in incentives. They could cut the base to $12.8 million in 2022.
How about wait until next November and negotiate a cheaper salary for 2021 so they can actually have some payroll room for outside additions? Are they afraid Yadi would sign with a different team? If so I would call that bluff.November 15, 2019 at 9:55 am #114453stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
How about wait until next November and negotiate a cheaper salary for 2021 so they can actually have some payroll room for outside additions? Are they afraid Yadi would sign with a different team? If so I would call that bluff.
Yeah, I agree with you. I think there’s almost no chance that Yadi plays anywhere but St Louis in his career and if he has a good 2019 you give him a nice guaranteed salary. If he struggles or is hurt but still wants to play, you give him the Waino treatment of a lower base salary with incentives to bump it up.
I love Yadi…he’s a great Cardinal and even though he’s stubborn, he plays with a chip on his shoulder unlike anyone save maybe Tommy Pham that we’ve had lately. We know and he know that his Hall of Fame legacy will depend at least a little on the aura of being a “one team player” and thus I’m sure he will retire in St Louis, one way or another.
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