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Brian Walton
Just yesterday, Craig Edwards at Fangraphs showed that the cost of a win in free agency this winter is up to somewhere between $8.0 and $9.1 MM/WAR, depending on the calculation method.
So, how could the Cards can land Arenado without overpaying – at that incremental cost of $16-18 MM or less? Like I said, I don’t see how the math works realistically – forgetting about the players they will have to give up in the trade, too.
Like I said, there is an exponential component to WAR increases. We can’t just sign a 3-WAR player ~ like Ozuna ~ and plug him in our lineup and receive 3 extra wins because our replacement players or baseline players are already very capable of producing some combination of 2.0 WAR or so.
So you can spend $18M AAV on a free agent and get slightly better or you can spend $35M on a Cole or Rendon and get the equal benefit of trading for Arenado. In this case, we could lock up cost-certainty in a 5.0-6.0 WAR player for at least 3-5 years, assuming he doesn’t take the opt-out, at a similar price the first two years as a $16-18M AAV free agent, while getting the Cole/Rendon/Harper price later on in the contract.
someones trying to compare matt carpenter to Nolan Arenado with ops. . im gonna list the only year ops stats that matter 2019. Arenado 926, carpenter 726. if they were the same age, an average might be a factor. they aren’t the same age. everyone always touts these prospects. but most of the time they turn out to be average baseball talent at best, a lot of times, worse. Arenado also had 867 away ops. he had 1609 ops against the cardinals. yea lets just stay pat, hope and pray that somehow it was a fluke that ateam with a really good offense beat the cardinals, one of the worst offensive teams in the league. it was a fluke the cardinals made it that far. we got lucky, the cubs and the brewers really underperformed. maybe we will get so lucky this year. a team with the cardinals money shouldn’t be hoping, they should be trying.
Just when Twitter quieted down…
Our @MLBBruceLevine just reported the Cardinals trade offer he heard for Nolan Arenado would be newly acquired Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, and Tyler O'Neill. Good luck topping that offer, anyone.
— M@ (@MattSpiegel670) January 11, 2020
Wowza.
Agreed sounds like an ask instead of offer
That would kill our starting rotation. Maybe if it was earlier in the off-season when the starting pitching options were still out there to fix the rotation after something like that but now now.
How about?
Oneill Thompson Cmart WoodfordI almost think Levine is just making things up based on this article
I like Arenado a lot and I’m sure the Cardinals do also.
But how much more do the Cardinals like Arenado than Anthony Rendon? Do the Cardinals see Arenado, Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, and Tyler O’Neill better than Rendon? I don’t think so. And what do they do with Matt Carpenter?
Very expensive path for the Cardinals to take. As such, I struggle to see how this deal, as a stand alone deal, would make sense from a St. Louis stand point.
1. Erodes ML pitching staff as you move one starter and and last years closer (who is also a potential starter).
2. Makes Carpenter a bench player at $18M per season … I do not see him starting at third, first or second base, let alone, the outfield. Ouch!
3. Adds a net $22M to the playroll … well above the level ownership has said they are comfortable with.IMO, the Cards will need to find a new home for either Carpenter and/or Fowler before they can make a move on Arenado.
My take:
Can't wait until an StL radio personality shares the Cubs' reported offer for Arenado. Then, we'd have something to discuss…
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 11, 2020
Give the fans what they want!
Here's the biggest takeaway from these Arenado/Rockies/Cardinals rumors:
It's legit being discussed. We are past "interested" mode, folks. Verified accounts, MLB Network are reporting/discussing. It's not set in stone, but becoming more real.
This is what fans want#stlcards
— Dan Buffa (@buffa82) January 11, 2020
Our @MLBBruceLevine just reported the Cardinals trade offer he heard for Nolan Arenado would be newly acquired Matthew Liberatore, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Martinez, and Tyler O’Neill. Good luck topping that offer, anyone.
The Cardinals should not do this.
The Cardinals should do this in a second. To shy away from Arenado or someone like him because of the perceived talent that is being traded is the kind of timid approach that has made the Cardinals mediocre in recent years. Be bold and take risks I say. You’ll never get any better by playing it safe. I don’t think we’d be giving up much at all. Hudson is the one talent that we’d miss. Martinez is a risk to stay healthy and if he becomes a starter then hell be on the 60 day before June. O’Neill is Grichuk Jr. The prospect from Tampa is just that. Who knows if he’ll be any good ever. Get quality talent now and quit waiting for the phenoms to be great when they almost never are. If this is real, and I have trouble believing that it is, then make the deal by all means. Be bold Junior…trade prospects and raise the payroll…please!
To many evaluators, Reddon is almost as good as Arenado.
At least publicly, the Cardinals showed no interest in Rendon as a free agent where all it would have cost was cash and a draft pick.
Whatever the Cardinals offer the Rockies is a direct measure of how much better they see Arendo than Rendon minus the value of the draft pick but with the cost of paying someone to take Carpenter (if he agrees with the trade) or having an $18 million pinch hitter.
Arenado perspective from the Denver Post's Rockies beat writer… https://t.co/blu3n7btW2
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 11, 2020
For those stl players, Arenado’s opt out after 2021 has to be taken out of his contract. That’s a seven years of control trade package.
The Cardinals aren’t going to give up all four of those players for Arenado. I might consider Liberatore, CMart, and O’Neill, but not Hudson. We do need a starting rotation after all. Besides I would think the Rockies would want a new long term 3B option so Gorman or Montero should be in the deal somehow.
Cards Conclave had one of the best articles I’ve seen so far. Their article brought up the Stanton trade. He mentioned that’s what superstar trades look like these days with huge contracts involved. If that is the case it would look like a Matt Carpenter/Fowler type contract with a 10-15 range prospect (probably a Woodford type prospect) and Lane Thomas/Harrison Bader/Tyler O’Neill type.
Frankly if the Cards has offered what was reported, Arenado would be a Cardinal right now. I would offer up Hudson and O’Neill for purely selfish reasons, though on paper it’s a bit of an overpay. I think Hudson is the type of pitcher who may actually survive in CO and who wouldn’t want to see O’Neill hitting bombs (and striking out) in the thin air of Coors.
All of this to say I don’t think the Rockies would trade him and I don’t think the Cards should drastically over pay for him. I think his offensive WAR would take a step back overall at Busch, but like Goldy, I think his overall game would still be a big upgrade. I’d say 4ish WAR would be about right for him, but its just a guess really. This will be fun to watch.The problem with ANY offer for Arenado, is the length(s) of his contract.
Two years isn’t enough. (The opt-out possibility.)
Seven years is too much. (Profound decline is a real threat.)The sweet spot for a guy Arenado’s age would be 4 or 5 years for a long term contract. And no matter what, the Cards would be getting a contract multiple years different from that. On top of which, Busch III has been rough on righty power hitters. That doesn’t help.
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This should be in a different thread, but how about:
Liberatore and Fowler for Mookie Betts. Cards eat all but $7M of this year’s Fowler salary, and Sawx pay all of next year.Boston shaves $20M off their 2020 player payroll, which apparently is a big deal for them. And they get an excellent young prospect quite familiar to the new baseball chief, Chaim Bloom.
Cards add $20M to this year’s payroll, which apparently is a big deal for them. But StL ownership is okay with that, since they also instantly add five freaking wins and become significant favorites for the division crown. Sorry for usurping the Arenado thread.
I like Bob’s proposal much more than I like trading a huge amount of control and talent for one player.
Well, Bob, if you read Henry’s comments today, I don’t think trading Betts fits into his vision
At this point, if we trade for Arenado, either Fowler or Carpenter HAS to go to the Rockies. I would prefer Carpenter since he would have no position and the higher salary. I would even be willing to trade CMart in a package for Arenado.
My package would be CMart, Cabrera, Carpenter, O’Neill and Woodford for Arenado and Terrin Vavra. I would only substitute Liberatore for Cabrera if that is the only way the trade gets made but I would try to get something more from Colorado.
One thing that Colorado does not need is a 3B prospect. They currently have Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker and Ryan Vilade who could be their third baseman of the future.
1. Trade Fowler + Munoz + $5 million per year to Arizona for a prospect (SS Blaze Alexander)
2. Trade Carpenter + Ravelo + $5 million per year to Texas for a prospect (SS Maximo Acosta)
3. Sign Josh Donaldson for 3 years/$90 million ($35/35/20)Now, we’ve:
1. Improved right field by trading Fowler
2. Improved 3B by upgrading to Donaldson
3. Increased payroll by roughly $10.5 million
4. Improved the farm system
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