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A thinking person’s view of leverage…
The value of leaving Ozuna with fewer suitors if someone other than the Cardinals signs Castellanos first is likely worth more than the draft pick the Cardinals get for Ozuna leaving. If Ozuna signs first, then they can sign Castellanos, anyway, if that's what they actually want.
— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) January 10, 2020
Ny said:
It’s my opinion that much of the newer analytics were created by fantasy players to be used for fantasy players and gamblers.
Well, how about 30 MLB front offices and their analytics departments?
Here are the 10 stats used by 90+% of fantasy leagues:
Hitters: HR, SB, RBI, BA, runs
Pitchers: ERA, WHIP, wins, saves, KsThe wacky new stats being used in some leagues include OBP and holds.
On the other hand, the stuff you are talking about, whether WAR or wRC or FIP or xFIP or any of that is not part of any fantasy league scoring I have ever seen.
I am going to take a wild guess that those criticizing fantasy baseball as the root of stats evil are not among the 60 million in the US and Canada who play fantasy sports. (I used to have this same discussion with Jerry Modene each spring, so I know it well.)
CC, no. Discussed on an earlier page. Depends on revenue sharing and luxury tax status. Newer rules are more complicated, but bottom line is that the Cards get a pick after Competitive Balance Round B as long as Ozuna signs anywhere else for any amount prior to the June draft.
I have no problem with fantasy leagues…. it seems like a good way to get more excitement from the game. Betting in moderation on the games also. I’m all for people having fun with the game and following it more closely.
Brian Walton
KeymasterPaid – Annual
Pads wrote:I don’t think they will get a valuable pick at this point any way.
Let’s get specific. The Ozuna comp pick will be just before round 3. We don’t know the exact number yet, but last year, it was pick no. 78 overall, carrying about $800,000 of additional cap room.
Taken by the Cardinals after no. 78 in their drafts in the last five years alone (so others may still be in the pipeline):
Zac Gallen (traded)
Tommy Edman
Andrew Knizner
Harrison Bader
Jordan Hicks
Paul DeJong
Ryan HelsleyOf course, there were misses, too…
I’d say that’s probably the best batch of draftees from that point in the draft on of ANY other team in baseball over that time frame. My post wasn’t very clear, but it’s not like we are getting a 1st rounder anymore like when Heyward or Lackey left.
How great would the pitching future look if they still had Gallen? Wheeeew!
Secondly, I don’t have twitter so I hadn’t seen that twitt about the idea of signing Castellanos and getting the pick for Ozuna. Aka, I wasn’t being a copy cat!
The more I’ve thought about it over my delicious turkey sub (with baked lays on it of course), I really like the idea of Castellanos and getting the pick. I don’t see Ozuna holding out until after the draft so the pick should happen, if anything he would take a 1 year pillow deal.
If they could get rid of Fowler and save $8M per year and sign Castellanos for 3/45, they would only be adding 7M/7/15 from 20-22.
Wong -Thomas -Goldy -Castellanos -Carp -DeJong -O’neill -Yadi wouldn’t be a bad lookin’ lineup….
I hope we pass on offering Ozuna a multi-year. I’d prefer we pursue Starling Marte (2/24mil). I wouldn’t be opposed to offering O’Neill & Gant, and let the GM’s equal it out from there.
Not a huge difference, but worth noting, Castellanos is only going into his age 28 season. So a 3 year deal would be his age 28-30, might be worth the risk of putting an option year on it with a 1M buyout.
Except in the unlikely case where the teams that signs Ozuna had already lost both their first and second round picks, the value of the pick the Cardinals get for Ozuna signing elsewhere will be less than the value of the pick the signing team gives up.
So for another team to sign Ozuna they must see
Ozuna > Castellenos minus the value of higher pick.For the Cardinals to sign Castellenos they must see
Ozuna < Castellenos plus value of lower pick.In other words the Cardinals must value Castellenos not only higher than any other team values him, they must value Castellenos more valuable than any other team values Castellenos plus the value of the difference between the two picks, plus take the risk that Ozuna waits until after the June draft to sign.
There is no draft pick attached to Castellenos. He was traded mid-season. It doesn’t matter where Ozuna signs. The Cardinals are guaranteed a pick at either 75 or 76, depending on if Ozuna is signed before or after Donaldson. If the Braves resign Donaldson the Cardinals would get the 75th pick for Ozuna, assuming he signs before the MLB Draft in June.
The higher pick I’m referring to is the pick the team that signs Ozuna has to give up.
The lower pick is the pick the Cardinals would get if Ozuna is signed by another team.
Braves do like Marcell Ozuna. It’s believed they at least touched base with Castellanos too, but Ozuna seems more likely. They need middle of order bar to replace Donaldson. Might be easier to go the free agent OF route than fashion blockbuster for superstar 3B Arenado or Bryant.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 15, 2020
Oquendo, the Cards don’t get “the signing teams pick” if he signs elsewhere like the old days, just a pick added into the draft and then they lose one of their own. Someone correct me if I’m wrong?
CFICT, you are correct the Cardinals don’t get the signing team’s pick, but the pick the Cardinals get is worth less than the pick the signing team loses.
The value of the pick the signing team loses varies by the signing team. So the relative value of Ozuna and Castellenos varies from team to team.
Let’s use some fictional round numbers as examples:
Say Team A would lose a pick worth $3M if they sign Ozuna.
Say Team B would lose a pick worth $2M if they sign Ozuna.
Say the Cardinals would get a pick worth $1M if someone else signs Ozuna.If all three teams value Castellenos and Ozuna exactly the same at $15M.
Team A can offer Castellenos $15M and Ozuna $12M.
Team B can offer Castellenos $15M and Ozuna $13M.
The Cardinals cannot outbid either Team A or Team B by offering Castellenos $15M-$16M or the Cardinals can outbid Team A or Team B by offering Ozuna $13M-$14M.So by resigning Ozuna the Cardinals save more than the value of the pick they lose if someone else signs him and they don’t risk Ozuna waiting until after the draft to sign (and not getting the compensation pick).
I would still rather have Castellanos and the extra pick vs having Ozuna and no pick.
Why? I think Castellanos is a slightly better player than Ozuna plus the true value of that comp pick is unknown. We signed Wacha with a comp pick when Pujols left and for the first few years of Wacha’s career he was worth way more than $1M.
I have no problem with someone valuing Castellenos more than Ozuna. I disagree but I understand that reasoning.
I am arguing that the getting the compensation draft pick is a reason for the Cardinals to prefer Castellenos.
The $1M value of the compensation pick in my example is just a number for the example. If the value of the compensation pick is greater than the value of the signing team’s lost pick is even greater.
Basically, the greater the value of the picks, the greater Ozuna’s value is decreased, the greater savings for the Cardinals to resign him,AND the greater the risk of him not signing until after the draft.
I don’t mind getting Ozuna on a one year pillow deal. The Cardinals get a bargain. Ozuna has another chance to prove his value has returned after recovering from shoulder surgery and he can get full market value next offseason (without being tied to a draft pick).
I get what you are saying and I agree that Ozuna on a one year pillow deal wouldn’t be bad, except we would not get the extra pick. I think there is a good chance that extra pick could be more valuable than the AAV savings we get on Ozuna. Better odds of that happening than Ozuna waiting until June to sign.
Most of this is a moot point because the Cardinals have not been linked to Castellanos at all. They aren’t going to sign him. They obviously value Ozuna higher for some reason. Of course if they trade for Arenado then they won’t get either Ozuna or Castellanos.
I haven’t watched Castellanos nearly as much as Ozuna of course, but he seems to be a much more consistent batter. I saw him more when he was with the Cubs of course, when he was hot. But some consistency and someone who will get in the high .200’s is an extreme need for the Cards lineup.
– As a bat only comparison, I prefer Castellanos for the consistent swing, less HR’s, more doubles and a higher average
– Glove Work goes to Ozuna
– Age and the draft pick gain goes to CastellanosAs long as the money and years are close, I’d prefer Castellanos. That being said, unless they can move half of Fowlers salary, neither one will be hitting behind Goldy in 2020.
We signed Wacha with a comp pick when Pujols left and for the first few years of Wacha’s career he was worth way more than $1M.
Wacha was a first rounder, to be fair. That was back when you got the pick of the team who signed your player.
I would rather the Cards say no to both Ozuna and Castellanos.Go with vthe the kids.I see no reason a OF of O’Neill,Bader,Thomas,Fowler(unless traded),Edman and maybe Justin Williams and Carlson can’t succeceed.Rather take a chance with the kids instead of overpaid rag armed FAs.
Wacha was a first rounder, to be fair. That was back when you got the pick of the team who signed your player.
Good point. Our pick for losing Ozuna would be after competitive balance round B, which is after round 2. It still should be a pretty good player. We have drafted well in that range before.
Part of this just comes down to the fact that I have more confidence in the Cardinals ability to draft and develop than to sign quality free agents.
Yes, Wacha was the 19th pick.
I believe earlier in this thread, Brian stated that in last year’s draft the Ozuna compensation pick would have been the 78th pick and worth $0.8M.
But the exact value is not my point.
My point is the signing team will need to give up a higher value pick than the Cardinals would receive. So for all the reasons Cardinals’ fans would prefer the compensation pick, the other teams would have more reason to not give up the pick for Ozuna and therefore sign Castellenos instead.
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