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That 4th spot was a struggle this year. Ultimately going to go with Zach Thompson. He’s got the highest floor in my opinion. Great stuff (that Curveball!), but more of a mid to backend starter than top of the rotation potential to me. Still a great piece to have to slot into the back of the rotation, maybe as soon as this year. That arm has had a lot of rest since college. I imagine he’ll start out in AA after spring training, but I wouldn’t say AAA is out either since it sounds like he made some strides in the alternate camp.
Can’t wait! Also, for those that may have missed it:
Always enjoy these exercises. I fully expect the Cards to make small upgrades around the margin and maybe even cost cutting trades if they can make them work. However, I like the idea of a short term upgrade a 3B. Seems like the easiest way to upgrade the offense with the most options. You’re really looking for a 2 year solution there. The FO seems to want to play what they have in the OF for 2021 and that’s probably better than running Carpenter out to 3B 3/4 of the time. So my four ideas for an “upgrade” at 3B.
1. Matt Chapman – a pipe dream, but if you wanted to swing big, this is who I go after instead of Arenado. The A’s have no reason to trade him and you’d have to trade the farm to get him, but man, that would be a great way to upgrade!
2. Jose Ramierez – a little more reasonable. 27 yrs old, but starts getting expensive after 2021 (12/14M so essentially Wong’s contract), though they are club options so a good contract for them. Doesn’t say anything about referring to player option with trade (like the next guy). The Indians have some top prospect SS/3B in AAA ready for some playing time and could use an upgrade at 2B and have a hole in the rotation to fill (currently all righties) Since they’ve had some ability to orchestrate win/win trades with the Indians in the past maybe you can make this work for Kolton Wong and somebody like Austin Gomber. Not knowing how teams value talent, I still think that’s WAYYYY light on a value trade scale so you probably have to throw in a pretty good pitching prospect too. I’d say it’s unlikely.
3. Kyle Seager – He’s been better than average the last two years and even with some regression added in he would be an upgrade at 3B (though not a true middle of the order masher). He has been an above average hitter with good power over the last 2 years after a pretty miserable 2018. Given the transition to the NL and a slightly better hitters park (SAFECO is very pitcher friendly) you could hope for 25-30 HR and OPS+ around 120 for a year or two with good not great defense. Again a pretty good track record trading with Seattle. He’s pretty expensive, but not cost prohibitive at 18M for 2021 and 15M (converts to player option with trade) for 2022. There is some serious regression risk with him, but likely a more affordable option. To me Seattle looks like they could use an upgrade at C and another piece to the rotation, preferably a RHP. So maybe Andrew Knizner and Daniel PonceDeLeon can get this done. If you’re looking at Trade Values, Seattle would probably need to kick in a prospect like a Brandon Williamson (LHP) though to my untrained eye that seems like a lot. Seattle has Ty Fletcher who could take over 3B and gets good value, but this feels like it’s biased a bit towards the Cardinals.
4. Justin Turner – At 36 if you can get him on a 2 year deal with a club/player option for the 3rd year. Probably not a bad option, especially if FA salaries are artificially suppressed by COVID uncertainty this offseason.Overall There is something to say for all of these. Justin Turner probably adds the most payroll, but you don’t lose anything. Kyle Seager adds a lot of payroll too, but is a solid up grade. Jose Ramirez is the best “realistic” option, but they’d have to give up a lot to get him I believe. Overall, I think the Cardinals chose option E. None of the above
I meant that to be a little more tongue and cheek (after rereading my post a clear fail), but also because I’m trying to hope into existence the unity of a top prospect from St. Louis and the Cardinals. A guy can hope. I completely agree with your points.
I mean if there was ever a season to be sellers and race to the bottom, I would think this year with a big righty from St Louis occupying a spot in the consensus Top 5 in the draft might be a good chance to try it.
Who would’ve thought Matt Carpenter would have more HBPs than the Astros this year. Loss of bat speed doesn’t effect your ability to take one for the team! (Disclosure: Statement made of hyperbole and not backed by facts or actual statistics)
Thanks Brian, good discussion. It does make more sense to compare apples to apples with Tre Fletcher, but for some reason Torres and Nunez are linked in my mind. I guess it’s the Peoria to JC track they shared last year.
Also, I might have missed it, but has anyone discussed the organization’s decision to have Malcom Nunez in the 60 at the ATS and not Jhon Torres? I assume it’s the dearth of major league ready OFs in the system, but it’s hard not to read some organizational priority into it. I generally see those two as being very similar types of prospect, but it seems safe to say the organization sees Nunez as a higher prospect than most of the rankings do.
So I’m tracking MLB.com, TCN, FanGraphs and Baseball America have updated post-draft rankings. I plugged those into the spread sheet and below is what I come up with for average order. As a reminder I prefer to use the simple average divided by the number of lists they made. It gives some weight to being on more lists. Because their are only four updated lists there isn’t a lot of difference. The exceptions are Edwin Nunez (Int’l signing with 100+ FB), Ricardo Sanchez, and Patrick Romeri (+16 spots +9 spots and -10 spots). So bottom line these are ranked by average “expert” ranking (I used MLB.com prospect rules so Knizner, Thomas, etc… aren’t on the list). I have 123 names and a ton of data, including my own formula (based on my scoring of ceiling, probability, performance, age for league, level, and injury risk) so if you have questions about a particular prospect not on the list its possible I have him on my spreadsheet somewhere.
1 Dylan Carlson
2 Nolan Gorman
3 Matthew Liberatore
4 Ivan Herrera
5 Zack Thompson
6 Jordan Walker
7 Genesis Cabrera
8 Elehuris Montero
9 Masyn Winn
10 Jhon Torres
11 Junior Fernandez
12 Johan Oviedo
13 Angel Rondon
14 Jake Woodford
15 Trejyn Fletcher
16 Julio Rodriguez
17 Kodi Whitley
18 Malcom Nunez
19 Tink Hence
20 Edmundo Sosa
21 Edwin Nunez
22 Justin Williams
23 Tony Locey
24 Mateo Gil
25 Luken Baker
26 Ian Bedell
27 Roel Ramirez
28 Alec Burleson
29 Alvaro Seijas
30 Seth Elledge
31 Ricardo Sanchez
32 Andre Pallante
33 Griffin Roberts
34 Jack Ralston
35 Levi Prater
36 Adanson Cruz
37 Alex Fagalde
38 Juan Yepez
39 Justin Toerner
40 Jesus Cruz
41 Connor Jones
42 Steven Gingery
43 Edgardo Rodriguez
44 Evan Mendoza
45 Delvin Perez
46 Rodard Avelino
47 Rangel Ravelo
48 Patrick Romeri
49 Edgar Escobar
50 Max SchrockPretty good write-up from Prospects Live from the Cape Code League 2019 for a couple of signings if you’re interested.
John Beller, LHP USC (Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox) – A shorter left-hander with a fastball, two breaking balls and a changeup. He works predominantly with the fastball and curveball, mixing in the slider or changeup as necessary. The slider is a harder version of his curveball with some tail. The changeup was used more during my first look versus Chatham opposite Zarion Sharpe in the fog-out game. He threw the slider almost equal to his curveball early in the Bourne matchup, but settled in later with mostly fastball-curveball.
His fastball velocity leaves much to desired as he reaches just 88 mph max but mostly sits 85-87. He spots the pitch well and can get some good plane to pair nicely with his curveball. His curveball sits in the mid-high 70s, touching 80 at times, shows true 12-6 shape as he uses it effectively on the inside part of the plate in same-side matchups.
Mechanically Beller has a high leg kick that MacKenzie Gore might have a copyright case against (kidding!). Despite the unusual delivery, Beller repeats well and outside of a near stop in his leg kick where he straightens his leg, it’s a very fluid motion. It’s strange but it works for him, and he’s athletic enough to pull it off. The question is with a smaller frame and a leveraged delivery can he add the necessary velocity on his fastball to cut it in the professional ranks? His off speed and breaking stuff is legit, he located his fastball well now, but at 90-92 Beller could be a prospect. A good pitchability lefty with an out pitch and a feel for the zone. It will be a tough profile to translate to the next level, but Beller knows how to pitch. – Ralph Lifshitz
Mac Lardner, LHP Gonzaga (Bourne Braves) – The lefty from Gonzaga went five innings against a strong Y-D lineup, allowing two unearned runs on a misplayed ball in the outfield. He sat 85-87 on the fastball touching 88 a handful of times. He mixed in a changeup at 77-78 and a CB in the low 70s, with the changeup being the better of the two. His changeup showed nice run and fade moving like a two seamer and was a swing and miss pitch when located to right-handed batters. His curveball was more loopy and more of a change of pace pitch, but not quite a get-me-over. He located his fastball well in the lower level of the zone, and drove a fair amount of groundball contact. The lower velocity on his fastball is below average, and surprising for a guy his size. There’s some mechanical stuff too, including a head knock in his motion as he falls off to the third base side. His big frame and relatively simple mechanics leave some hope that he can channel his strength and size into some additional fastball velocity. Not the most exciting player, but he works fast, throws strikes, and changes speeds. – Ralph Lifshitz
I was just coming to get you opinion on this article Brian. It does make some interesting points about the possibility of improving college baseball, which would be cool, but it kind of sounds like shifting risk to a brand of baseball that already hemorrhages money. However I suppose if you give some money to college baseball like the article says may happen, it might not be a bad idea to use college football money to help subsidize your “minor league” system. Interesting counterpoint to the MiLB dismantling MLB has been pushing. Not sure I buy it, but article seems to make it sound like college baseball is all for it. Would like to hear your thoughts if you’re game.
Great article Derek. Really enjoyed it. Any thoughts on where he fits in with the other prospects? 100 and some control already sounds like a pretty good floor, even for a DSL prospect. Seems like him as well as Rivas, Devilla and Burns makes for a pretty solid international class.
So just looking at rankings for the draft picks I pulled up the MLB.com rankings and thought I’d see where they fit in. I put them in the Cards top prospect where I think they’d slot in based on their overall rank.
Jordan Walker / 50 / 9
Masyn Wynn / 50 / 10 (Personally I’d slot him around 14-15)
Tink Hence / 45 / 15-20
Ian Bedell / 45 / 15-20
Alec Burlson / 45 / 15-20
Levi Prater / 40 / Maybe 30 (probably not with the above 5 additions)Overall that seems about right. Alec Burlson is a little higher than I would have guessed. I like the two pitchers they signed, Dalatri and Trogrlic-Iverson. Very interesting and have some good qualities. Really 5-8th round types any other year. Could be interesting guys to keep an eye on if the fall league starts up. Thanks for the articles Brian, very good work by you and your staff.
In case you haven’t seen this. THought it might be of interest.
B/R Post Draft System RankingsNot really draft related but here you go anyways:Cards International Preview
I think I get what the Cards are doing, since they took so many college pitchers last year, but man, it’s hard to look at the Dodgers picks and not like what they’re doing, at least on the surface.
I’m a fan of the Dodgers draft so far. I have to assume for the Cards that they’ve talked to these HS guys and they are sign able. They all have something going for them. Overall, looks like they are trying to replenish the entry levels. I guess we’ll see.
I hope the fall league works out for each organization to have a team. I miss MiLB and seeing the prospect progress.
Brian (or anyone) where do you see him fitting into the Top Prospects? Seems hard to put him in the Top 7. How would you compare him to someone like Malcom Nunez as far as 3B in the system now?
