Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
I looked through all of the Mock Drafts I could find. Some are better than others and all are basically a crap shoot, but it’s a fun exercise in gaining information. Most are already on the board so this will hopefully consolidate and I’ll add my thoughts from reading some of the insight.
The Athletic – Garrett Crochet (LHP/Tennessee) -basically what the Cards drafted last year Big lefty with good stuff and injury concerns. Personally I think his soreness this year was a little overblown as Coach Vitello was being cautious to rest him for conference play.
ESPN – Cade Cavalli (RHP/Oklahoma) – Big athletic righty with good arm speed and solid 4 pitch mix with Plus FB/CB combo. Also works with a CU and SL. Below AVG control seems to come up a lot.
BBAmer/MLB.com – Justin Foscue (2B/3B-MS State) – Trendy name of late with a solid to above average hit tool and good power. Played some 3B and has a solid arm but sounds like a solid bat with a utility profile. A fringe first round grade for a 2B does speak well about how people view his bat though.
Perfect Game – Nick Bitsko (RHP/ HS) – Another guy who reclassified to an earlier draft class (ala Treyjen Fletcher). #1 Prospect in the 2021 class according to some sites. Here’s hoping he gets drafted high enough to avoid his commitment to UVA so they don’t ruin his pitching motion. (Connor Jones anybody?)
I’ll put a list of other sites below, but suffice it to say that SHOCKINGLY everyone seems to be in agreement that the Cards are looking to take one of the 2nd Tier College Pitchers (Cavelli / Wilcox / Mlodzinski / Beeter / Cecconi / Ginn / Jarvis) or take one of the upside guys if they slide (Howard / Crochett / Garrett Mitchell / Max Meyer). I’ve seen Soderstrom’s name a few times which doesn’t make sense with the catcher depth in the system, but almost no one seems to think he sticks at catcher and has a bat that will play anywhere. So I guess no need to get worked up about that.
Bleacher Report – Clayton Beeter (RHP/Texas Tech)
Prospect 365 – (3 Writers) Cavalli/Crow-Armstrong/Mitchell
Off The Bench – Austin Wells (C/Arizona) (I think this one was pretty old)
Prospects Live – Cavelli
CBS Sports – Soderstrom (C/HS)
MyMLBDraft – Cole Wilcox (RHP/UGA)
Medium – (Minor League Site from March) Max Meyer (RHP/Minnesota)
DraftSite – Justin Foscue
247 Sports (Jeff Ellis) – CJ Van Eyk (RHP/FSU) (Sleeper Ed Howard)
Baseball Prospect Journal – CavalliBA 5.0 #21 Cardinals
Justin Foscue, 2b , MsSt
Another name who’s been mentioned quite a bit, Foscue fits the mold of a player who could gain ground as teams hunt for players with proven resumes. He doesn’t have the sort of impact that Kjerstad provides, but he is a safe bet to stick in the infield, which helps. The Cardinals have done well with this sort of profile.All good points Brian, and banking on the future is really just deferring risk, however I think with the unpredictability of this year and the chance of some big names going to JC resetting for next year a possibility it just seems like a better year than most to take a risk on high value in the 2nd or 3rd round. Also, keep an eye on a guy like Landon Knack, a late bloomer from my alma mater who has more value than a normal 5th year SR who might give them the ability to squeeze out a little more money to take a risk with a Compensatory pick. I didn’t even think about it from an organizational money perspective. Guess I’ll never be an exec.
Personally I think unless somebody like Zac Veen, Austin Hendrick, Robert Hassell, or maybe Ed Howard falls, it will come down to the best college pitcher available. I’m thinking they lean right this year so I’m going with Cade Cavelli or Cole Wilcox as they have the size the Cards seem to like overall.
After that I think it might be a good year to grab a signability risk to either get a value pick this year or an extra pick next year in what should be a deep draft (if a lot of these guys go JC to get back in the draft next year like people are predicting). If there is no MiLB season, then losing a high pick this year with the prospect of an extra one next year would be worth considering.
Probably not a new or original idea, but seems like a good time to try it, especially if someone you like falls.
Austin Martin and Garrett Mitchell will most likely be gone before we pick at #21, but I’d like to see the Cards pick one of these 6 guys in the first 5 rounds.
Heston Kjerstad – Arkansas
Zach DeLoach – Texas A&M
Tyler Gentry – U. of Alabama
Alerick Soularie – U. of Tennessee
Parker Chavers – Coastal Carolina
Trevor Hauver – Arizona StateAll outfielders with big bats, and all rank in the Top 150 draft prospects.
I like Alerick Soulaire (TN bias aside). He’s more hard line drive than over the fence pop, but that is there in college as well. Good (not great) defense but does have a serviceable arm for right to my eye. Most have him pegged as a left fielder and has played second base at TN.
Parker Chavers is a guy that I’ve read could slide due to injury that would be a big bat at a discount, so who doesn’t love that!
Being a TN boy (who is sincerely disappointed to be losing Johnson City) I’m hoping Garrett Crochet falls to the Cards. I mean he’s basically the same thing they drafted last year with a better FB (College lefty with a slight injury history) so that might not be what they are looking to draft. I think they have done a good job the last few years identifying prospects with a great deal of value in the first round.
The prospects and minors stuff is definitely worth the price of admission. I would pay the yearly fee for the prospect articles alone. Brian’s incorporating the member’s views into his prospect rankings is unique as well (I don’t know of any other site that does that.) If you haven’t read the prospect articles from this offseason I highly recommend it. Also some of the user views in the free threads are great and give a wide variety of thoughts on a much bigger pool of prospects than you will get on any other site. Well done Brian and all of the other contributors to this site. I recommend for any fan of the ENTIRE Cardinals organization.
BCCRAN
Surprises?
-There are a lot of relievers rated high for a bunch of services that say they discount relievers in their rankings. I think it shows the increasing importance of the bullpen in the game.
-Even with a good secondary numbers most people are down on Woodford.
-Fuller jumps way up the list when you account for just missed and honorable mentions. There are a few people who think he really takes off this year.As for the guys you mentioned they are further down because they were on fewer lists. Particularly Ravelo whom some left off for various reasons. The one thing I haven’t figured out how to correct for with this list is different services using different criteria for who is and isn’t a prospect.
I may edit the post to put on a little more information.BHC it’s on their site as of January. It’s behind their paywall with pretty good write ups for each prospect but here’s the list:
Carlson/Gorman/Liberatore/Thompson/Herrera/Knizner/Oviedo/Fletcher/Whitley/Montero
Next 10: Gil/Fernandez/Williams/Cabrera/Torres/Baker/Locey/Woodford/Rondon/SeijasNyquist – I only used the ratings that were there. So if they only had 7 (Goold), I only used 7. If they mentioned 50 plus (TCN) I used them all. For Just Missed prospects I added them at the end i.e. if the list is a top 30 with a just missed I added them all at #31. Not a perfect system obviously, but its a great way to kill time while standing duty. As I said it’s lies, damn lies and statistics. To me dividing their average allowed me to not skew the numbers too much with one service’s high or low ranking and further break out those who are listed by more services.
Cards Conclave had one of the best articles I’ve seen so far. Their article brought up the Stanton trade. He mentioned that’s what superstar trades look like these days with huge contracts involved. If that is the case it would look like a Matt Carpenter/Fowler type contract with a 10-15 range prospect (probably a Woodford type prospect) and Lane Thomas/Harrison Bader/Tyler O’Neill type.
Frankly if the Cards has offered what was reported, Arenado would be a Cardinal right now. I would offer up Hudson and O’Neill for purely selfish reasons, though on paper it’s a bit of an overpay. I think Hudson is the type of pitcher who may actually survive in CO and who wouldn’t want to see O’Neill hitting bombs (and striking out) in the thin air of Coors.
All of this to say I don’t think the Rockies would trade him and I don’t think the Cards should drastically over pay for him. I think his offensive WAR would take a step back overall at Busch, but like Goldy, I think his overall game would still be a big upgrade. I’d say 4ish WAR would be about right for him, but its just a guess really. This will be fun to watch.I’m a big fan of Kyle Reis’ write-ups at Birds on the Black. He should start his Dirty 35 pretty soon. Red Baron at Viva el Birdos is a good resource as well. He also does a pretty good draft preview when that starts rolling around. The coverage here with Brian and Derek though is a cut above, and the comments section is full of excellent, mostly objective (ha) posters.
They should have 5 top 100 picks if Ozuna signs elsewhere (75-80) and the third rounder likely around 100. That’s a pretty good start.
5 I want to keep an eye on:
Tyler Statler
Thomas Hart
Jacob Schlesener
Andrew Warner
Gustavo Rodriguez71. Nick Dunn – Right handed Max Schrock kind of second base only prospect with a superior hit tool.
72. Diego Cordero – Midwest league All-Star with pretty good starter numbers. Promoted to PB and performed fairly well there. FIP, xFIP, and DRA all seem to point to him being somewhat lucky with his ERA hiding his peripheral stats. Still good value and a lefty who needs to make a jump in A+ or AA this year.
73. Joerlin De Los Santos – Superb in his DSL debut. Not so good in his stateside debut. Still very young, even for the GCL and the Organization showed a lot of belief by bringing him stateside in his 18 y/o season. Bears watching this year to see if he improves as he becomes more comfortable in the states.
74. Tyler Statler – 1 of 2 H.S. pitchers in the later rounds to sign. Intriguing FB with developing secondary stuff. Worth watching going forward.
75. Connor Thomas – College lefty who could surprise as he moves forward with underrated stuff. Pitched pretty well with predictive stats outperforming his rate stats. Doesn’t have prototypical starter size, so will have to overcome perceptions as well. Certainly a good value for an organization that needs more lefty starters.
So up front, I think the Cards are most likely to improve from within with a couple of minor signings to offset a few losses. I think they let Ozuna walk or take the QO. Either way is a win for the Cards in their mind. Other than that I don’t think they’ll do much, hoping for a bounce back from Carp and Goldschmidt and one of their young outfielders to step up, doesn’t matter if it’s O’Neill, Thomas, Arozarena, Garcia, Carlson, etc…
But this wouldn’t be much fun if we left it at that so…
Disclaimer: I tried my hand at projected trade values after reading Trade Surplus Values article from D-Rays Bay and adding in a few assumptions on projections and future value. Just some possibilities that interest me and you may need to sprinkle in a prospect or two. The below trades bring the Cards payroll for 2020 to ~180M (I think) and 2021 to 180M with 10M ish allocated for catcher.
Matt Carpenter to Texas +8-9M/yr for a pitching project/lottery ticket. Texas is losing Beltre and their top prospect is a few years away. Getting a local guy on a bounce back deal is a low risk type of move that won’t block Jung. That gives roughly 20M surplus to TX in basically a salary dump.
DeJong/O’Neill/Knizner to Cleveland for Francisco Lindor/Ethan Haskins – Cleveland may be shopping Lindor as they don’t want to pay what is likely to be 16-17 and 28-30M. This seems a little light but by the Surplus Value calculations shows over 120M surplus value to Cleveland (249M to 127M). They get a roughly 4 WAR (used 3.5 and 3 WAR going forward) replacement for Lindor cost controlled through 2024, a cheap replacement for Puig who is a very similar player minus the flare/attitude and a prospect swap that gets you a ML ready catcher for a pitcher in A ball. Their is some risk/reward for both sides to this I think. Herrera makes the loss of Knizner palatable but you likely need a backup catcher (more later)
Wong/Cabrera (or DeLeon/Gomber/Woodford) to Boston for D. Price/M. Chavis – Boston is trying to get under the luxury tax and rumored to be shopping Price. The Cards tried to get him before and going from a hitter friendly park to a pitcher friendly park can’t hurt. Chavis gives you a young up and coming option at 3rd that Boston has been trying to shoe horn into their line up this year at second. There is some risk to this depending on how Price performs, but I like the prospects of a bounce back with a better situation. This trade is essentially a wash by my surplus value calculations. Should save Boston roughly 20M a year that could help to bring back Betts.
Sign a Weiters/Lucroy type catcher for 2yr/5-6M
Lineup
Edman/Lindor/Goldshmidt/Chavis/Molina/Fowler/Thomas/BaderBench
Lucroy/Ravelo/Sosa/Arozarena/J. Williams/MartinezRotation
Flaherty/Price/Mikolas/Hudson/Wainwright/Martinez/PonceDeLeon/Gomber/Bullpen
Hicks/Miller/Gant/Brebbia/Leone/Fernandez/Reyes/Elledge/WhitleyLike I said a lot of risk, but a lot of reward. Gets a little pricy, but overall I think it’s an improvement in OBP at the top for Goldschmidt to drive in. Chavis is a better bridge to Gorman time wise and still has room to grow into a good hitter. Its accurate to the best of my knowledge and assumptions, but again my first try at surplus value.
61. Austin Warner
62. Terry Fuller
63. Anthony Shew
64. Angel Cuenca
65. Scott Hurst – Strikes me as a Lane Thomas type with a bigger arm IF it all comes together and he stays healthy.55. Austin Warner – Our system is back if a serviceable lefty who is likely to get a crack at the big leagues can’t crack the top-60. Probably doesn’t have the frame to stand up to a starters workload over the long haul, but looks pretty good in a long reliever role.
56. Terry Fuller – Given how raw he was coming into the system as a baseball player and his performance last year, I expect him to have a minor breakout in Peoria this year. Power and athleticism to really dominate if the hit tool continues to progress. So far I think he is on track.
57. Hector Soto – Has had dominant numbers the last two years, but isn’t as young as you would think at 20 y/o in Rookie ball. He should start next year in Peoria with an outside shot at PB which would put him in good shape to shoot way up the rankings and organizational chart with continued development and performance.
58. Anthony Shew – Very good numbers in his second turn through AA leading to his promotion to AAA (and you know some injuries above him and such). League average age in AA and bit below in AAA. Pretty good s/o numbers overall, but his walk rate doubled upon moving to Memphis. If he brings that back in line with his career numbers, he should be effective and likely will make at least a showing at the big league level.
59. Angel Cuenca – DSL All-Star which probably pushed him up in my calculations (38th by my formula). 18 y/o Venezuelan had a very good performance in his second year in the DSL likely leading to a stateside assignment next year. Good s/o numbers and a very good WHIP. He’ll be an interesting pitcher to watch next year, probably in the GCL.
51. Austin Warner – Not much to say. I have him at 31 when you average out his performance vs projection. I think he’s going to move up the board this year.
52. Lars Nootbaar – Going to have a tough time breaking through the log jam of OF bats in front of him, but seems like a big body with a good approach at the plate that is the advanced bat the organization was hoping for when they drafted him out of USC.
53. Patrick Romeri – Great numbers in his first taste of pro ball. Showed good power and discipline for a HS bat in the GCL. I am very interested to find out where he is placed out of Spring Training. Most likely a year at JC, but interested to see if they give him a shot at Peoria for exposure prior to the beginning of short season leagues.
54. Terry Fuller – Very raw prospect who seems like he is starting to put it all together. Showed good, but not great power yet, however will almost certainly grow into it with his 6-4 / 210 frame. wRC+ liked him better than DRA+, but both were good for where he is in his development. If he can stick in Peoria to open the season, then I think he has a good chance of climbing the rankings in a big way this year. Overall excellent athlete at that size that has all the measurables, just needs to continue to develop. He will be exciting if it all comes together.
55. Hector Soto – Basically came down to Soto, YeSenka, and Shew. At this point it’s really personal preference I think and Soto was part of a good JC rotation. I’m still second guessing myself, but going with Soto primarily off of Cards27 write up earlier.
Just my opinion Nyquist, but if we go to Top 100 then Brian and Derek have more of our picks to average into the rankings if their Top-50 doesn’t match ours (OBVIOUSLY it should match ours, but you know just in case). Plus always good to see a few more names to keep up with next year in the minors (Tyler Reichenborn, he’s gonna be huuuuuge…maybe). I do like the 10 names idea. I can cut down my opinions a little bit.
47. Austin Warner – My favorite of the soft tossing lefties. Probably a reliever long term, but I’m not counting him out of the rotation just yet.
48. Francisco Justo – I see Justo making Peoria out of Spring Training and pitching well with them. If he continues to develop and physically mature into his 6’5″ frame could jump into the top 20.
49. Lars Nootbaar – Big corner OF type that the Cards seem to have a ton of at this point. Really started to take off in AA. Posted really good walk and strike out numbers at that level and showed an advanced approach at the plate. Another guy that is primed for a take off this year if the OF traffic jam is solved in front of him.
50. Patrick Romeri – I had a hard time deciding between Romeri and Fuller here. Both had good numbers this year by wRC+ (Romeri 129 and Fuller 123/109) but DRC+ really seemed to think that Fuller was a benefit of luck at State College (84 vs 123 at JC). Both are still quite young with Romeri I think being the more refined product at this point. He has a lot of talent and tools to work with and put up good power numbers in the normally power draining GCL. Had a good walk rate but a little high on the strikeouts with the obvious small sample size caveats. It’s a bit of a crap shoot, but in this case, age and polish edges out size and athleticism.
Cardinals27/14NyquisT,
Wonder if you could elaborate on what you like about Burgos? I haven’t seen him, but he had great numbers in the DSL, yet struggled (albeit young for the league) in the GCL. Cardinals don’t promote a lot of DSL guys mid season so I have to think they saw something too. Just looking for some insight.
43. Austin Warner – A good bet to start the year in the AAA rotation. Three good pitches with good control. I think we’re sleeping on this type of prospect because we’ve became used to it in the past few years. If he is able to consistently put it together this year, he could get a couple of spot starts in the bigs this year. His lack of prototypical size could push him to the bullpen, but has been effective as a starter.
44. Ludwin Jimenez – The best bet to break out in camp this year if he develops a little more velocity (as you would expect a 17 year old to do). Based on the organization’s handling of him, I could see them challenging him with an opening assignment in Peoria. 44 seems a little low for him based on projection so I think he’ll make it through this round.
45. Francisco Justo – Another candidate to be in Peoria’s rotation to start the year. One of my personal favorites from last years draft class. Obviously YaSenaka had the best numbers on the JC staff, but I think Justo has a more projectable starter profile with his size and stuff. There are a lot of interesting pitchers in the system after the last two drafts. Good to see after the last couple of years.
46. Lars Nootbaar – Nootbaar is a good segue into the differences between wRC+, OPS+ and DRC+. By wRC+ this year he looked good in Peoria and was league average in promotions to PB and Springfield (128/104/102 respectively). DRC+ vs OPS+ vs wRC+ By DRC+ however he shows as well above average at all three stops (128/124/135). So he “Deserved” better stats at his more advance stops. DRC+ is supposed to be somewhat predictive of a players future. Overall, Nootbaar is a big, athletic OF who should develop a little more power, which combined with his good BB% and SO numbers this year could develop into a pretty advanced hitter. He should begin at AA this year and with some progression, I could see him making a big rise as soon as the mid-season rankings.
39. Austin Warner – Servicable lefty who was league average this year in AA before getting moved up to AAA where he didn’t fare too well. Could be anything from a back of the rotation starter to a serviceable mutli-inning guy out of the pen.
40. Ludwin Jimenez – TCN’s GCL Starting Pitcher of the Year in his 17 year old season. Good bet to develop a little more on his FB to go along with his already good CU and CB. Continued development showed push him into the top 20 next year with a little luck.
41. Francisco Justo – Teamed with Hector Soto for a pretty formidable 1-2 punch in the JC rotation. I think Justo has a more projectable frame for a starter’s profile, even though Soto’s numbers were a little better in JC. It’ll be interesting to see where the Organization puts them next year.
42. Evan Kruzcynski – Another lefty (one of them has to turn out right?) with good control and good stuff. Didn’t put up the same numbers as last year, however still league average in AA and really got hit around in AAA. Looked like increase in walks and slight uptick in HRs really led to his decrease in numbers. If he can push his GB rate up to where he was last year, should be back on track, likely in AAA.
