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#4 Juan Yepez – I’ll go with the less risk guy here. Yepez has been young for every league he’s ever been in and demolished it. Here are his respective wRC+ numbers before promotion each year: 2018-198 / 2019-147 / 2021-153. He was able to start hitting some of those hard hit balls for HRs tis year as well. He’s continued to hit in the AFL as well. I think his power will certainly translate at the big league level even if his average dips to the .250-.260 area. Those are good numbers for a corner OF. The only problem will be finding consistent playing time. If he can play a utility role/DH role for this team I think he’s a good fit for the opening day roster with no FA signings. Otherwise he will continue to be quality depth on the farm.
Really wanted to go with Winn as a high ceiling bet here, but went with Yepez as a relatively safer prospect albeit with a bit lower ceiling.
SC25, I think he needs to open in Memphis as well. I think he is clearly behind Oviedo and Woodford in the pecking order for a rotation spot just due to the 40 man roster. But I really think he’s going to pitch well this spring (or summer if CBA negotiations continue to falter) and could push for a spot. That’s why it wouldn’t surprise me. For a different thread, but a good pitcher on a 3ish year contract I think would be ideal.
Agreed Brian, I don’t think they sign a SS this offseason, so how short of a leash do DeJong and Sosa get? Do they trust Edman enough to be a SS a bring up Gorman? Also, how does Yepez effect Gorman getting promoted? I think having Yepez, Oviedo, Woodford, Rondon all having 40 man spots and no need to accelerate Gorman and Liberatore’s timing will be the biggest thing that keeps them in Memphis until they are needed. That opinion could change based on the new CBA as well though.#3 Matthew Liberatore – he needs to succeed for no other reason than because Arozarena just won the AL ROY. I’m kidding, kind of, because I did and still do think that was the right trade and I do like Liberatore. And why not, he’s basically a LH Adam Wainwright starter kit. Big frame with a FB that isn’t over powering but plays up due to how quick it gets on hitters with his release and his ability to command it. Combine that with a wipeout CB that is close to elite command and who does that remind you of? He has the ability to grow into a #1 starter, but really has a floor of an innings eater in the Lance Lynn mold (different types of pitchers obviously but that type of role.) He struggled early in Memphis, but was better by the end of the year and was the go to pitcher for Team USA in the qualifiers. Pitching 124+ innings in AAA without having pitched above A ball is a big jump and I think he handled it well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he broke Spring Training with the big club, hopefully in the rotation.
SC25. I agree with you. Their position player depth is as good as it’s been in years. Clearly they need some consistent pitching to step up over the next year, but there are some guys I think will take a step forward. It seemed that the Cards minor league pitchers were more effected by the COVID year than other organizations. You could also make a case that they have placed a higher emphasis on position players in the draft than pitching over the last few years. Hard to say. I’ve pulled the most recent lists (22 and mid-year 21) from all of the websites I can find for Cardinals prospects. There is still a pretty defined drop from the first tier guys (Gorman, Walker, Liberatore in that order) to the second tier. However that second tier has expanded from about 5-6 guys to about 10-12 guys (Winn, Herrera, Baez, McGreevy, Burleson, Thompson, Yepez, Hence, M. Nunez, Baker, Torres, Rondon, Perez in that order). That’s a pretty big jump. There are also a few lottery tickets in the complex leagues that I think are exciting. Overall, if guys like Austin Love, Gordon Graceffo, etc… continue to develop on strong opening seasons and you a hit a lottery ticket type with E. Nunez or Alec Willis then the all of a sudden the pitching looks pretty good.
I go back and forth on this one as I really like Matthew Liberatore to be a rotation staple for a number of years hopefully starting this year. However it’s hard to go against the upside and make up that Jordan Walker possesses, so I won’t.
#2 Jordan Walker – A number of sites have already moved Jordan Walker ahead of Gorman, but for all of the great performance he’s put up this year, he’s still in High A, so there is just a little more risk and frankly that is the only ding I have on him. I mean I guess you could wonder what position he’s going to play long term, but if he continues to rake does it really matter? 3B, LF, 1B, DH. He’ll play and play well if he continues on this path because he has a great work ethic and baseball IQ. His power is legit, as expected, but there appear to be less holes in his swing than most predicted. It at least hasn’t been exposed by A ball pitchers. Its also safe to say that he has arguably the highest exit velocity in the organization. Springfield will be the key. I imagine he’ll get a spring training invite and if he handles it well, I think the Cards will be aggressive and start him in AA. With Gorman at 2B, I don’t see the organization letting Malcom Nunez start at Springfield and keeping Walker in Peoria if they want to challenge him. He only has 244 PAs in Peoria and he was “ONLY” well above average there with a 124 wRC+ (you know compared to 205 wRC+ in Palm Beach) and a reduced ISO of .195. All great numbers, but not the end of the world if they start him in Peoria and give him a quick promotion to Springfield with continued success. I don’t think that’s what happens though as I think chances are good he starts in Springfield. Overall, Randy Flores looks pretty smart now after many questioned the Jordan Walker pick during the draft.
#1 – Nolan Gorman – still has the lights out power and has begun to change his approach to get to it more effectively in games without sacrificing. His average/OBP has been much better than I would have guessed it would be at this point for a natural power hitter. Overall, he’s essentially what you hope Walker turns into.
First off, really looking forward to the next monthly re-rank…sooner is better than later for the impatient among us.
Continuing the Plummer discussion: Brian, do you see a hot July for Plummer as a prospect making adjustments or just another streak? His LD% and opposite field usage are up along with his BABIP, a very high .407. BABIP could be explained by the rise in LD% to some degree. There is probably some good luck sprinkled in there as well. His SO% is down, albeit only to 27% but his OBP and SLG are both way up this year. Some of that is to be expected moving to the friendly confines of Springfield, however he is still running a season wRC+ of 149 and 197 for July. DRC+ (supposedly more predictive of future success) isn’t as high, but still a respectable 108.
So, on the “devil’s advocate” side: 1. He’s a cold weather prospect that are notorious for taking longer to develop. 2. He had a hamate injury that takes a season+ to recover from. 3. His DRC+ and wRC+ numbers are close to average or better for his career with the exception of 2019 (See 2. Hamate Injury).
So I agree that your wait and see approach has been warranted, just curious when you see it as a prospect making improvements vs a hot streak. I wonder if the general down turn in pitching across MiLB has something to do with it as well. Either way, I think we can all agree that it’s good to see Nick Plummer showing some life as a baseball player.
Probably a money saving pick. BA has him at 424:
Zane Mills
Washington State RHP
Notes:
Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 22.2Here are the highlights from BA:
-Undrafted out of high school
-Struggled in his first season at Washington State posting a 2-4, 5.25 mark with 40 strikeouts and 21 walks in 36 innings,
-2020 season and went 3-0, 0.58 in seven appearances (six starts) in the Northwoods League that summer. This season, Mills pitched well at times, with a 5-5, 4.15 mark, 83 strikeouts and 22 walks in 80.1 innings despite not having a dominant arsenal.
-At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, Mills has good size on the mound has pitchability and polish.
-3 pitch mix fastball that sits 88-92 mph, a slider, and a changeup.
-Thanks to his feel and command of his arsenal, Mills should be able to start at the next level.Seems like people like the bat, but sketchy in the OF with fringe arm strength. BA’s write up was a little less flattering than MLB.com. Hit well in the wood bat leagues, which the Cardinals seem to love
BA: (108) Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Field: 40 | Arm: 45 | Overall: 45
MLB: (103) Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Field: 50 | Arm: 45 | Overall: 45Baseball America has McCreevy at 16 and Baez at 31.
McGreevy: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 70
Baez: Hit: 45 | Power: 70 | Run: 45 | Field: 55 | Arm: 70Interesting that BA likes his CB much better than MLB.com
To your point blingboy, the Cards were one of two organizations that didn’t participate in fall league. I was wondering earlier if that might be a bit of a factor.
Man, excited for some MiLB!
Palm Beach
Not sure if anyone noticed but that lineup with Walker, Jones, Lott and Fuller is like a starter kit for D-1 football front seven. Also they hit a little.
Great debut for Walker.
Lott looked good and jones got a hit.
Winn and Nunez kind of what you expect getting their first taste of pro ball (3 stikeouts though, ouch). Both are a little less polished and not unexpected they would struggle out of the gate.
Wonder if D. Williams gets the start tomorrow or if they go with Winn again.Peoria
Unfortunate beginning to Bedell’s pro career. Nunez, Whalen and Pages get hits and….yeah, that seems to sum it up.Springfield
Small sample size, but raise your hand if you had Perez and Plummer leading the way and going 4-7 in the opener. Robles looked strong and Escobar strikes out the side in the 9th. 8 hits so just need to string some together.Memphis
Nice days for Thomas (nice OF assist too) and Moroff. 13 strikeouts seems a bit excessive, until you see Durham had 14 so…there’s that.All in all Minor League ball is still a good time to keep up with, even if my beloved JC Cards are no more.
Lets go Doughboys! Maybe they’ll wear the helmets instead of baseball caps.
Pretty good article about Gorman and being open to new positions.
Interesting. His player information on TCN has Bostick re-signed in Sept, then listed as returned to the T-Bones (Indy Lg). So is he under contract to STL but “on loan” to the T-Bones?
I could see them making a 1 yr make good deal with Paxton, Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker. I’d feel pretty confident in Flaherty and Kim giving them quality innings, but after that there are lot of questions marks.
It’s hard to see how they are going to fit all of their OF’s in to the rotation. I could see a few getting farmed out to Independent League teams as I’ve heard mentioned on here. Otherwise there are going to be a lot of cuts.
I like the pitching tandem idea! Don’t know if Schildt is ready for that much forward thinking.
Rotation: 5 starters and Starter/Long Relief/
STL: Flaherty/Kim/Mikolas/Wainwright/Martinez/PonceDeLeon
MEM: Oviedo/Woodford/Williams/Warner/Kruczynski/Bostik
SPR: Liberatore/Rondon/Thompson/Roberts/Parson/Fagalde
PEO: Robles/Seijas/Pallente/Yasenka/Gragg/Cordero
PB: Bedell/Prater/Ralston/Gingery/Jimenez/Schmid/DalatriBullpen-ish?
STL: Hicks/Miller/Gallegos/Webb/Hesley/Gant/Reyes/Cabrerra (Would love to see the last 4 get a shot to start)
MEM: Whitley/Fernandez/Elledge/Jones/Ramirez/Bosiokovic/Cruz
SPR: Escobar/Patterson/Shew/Dayton/Santos
PEO: Oxnevad/Schlesener/Walsh/Aker/Gonzalez/Leahy/Pacheco
PB: Tavaras/Brettell/Blanco/Pereira/Roach/Thomas/Lex/Justo
GCL: Statler/Heredia/Lardner/Trogrlic/Hence/Nunez/Cuenca/Villanueva/Sanchez/Beller/Hart/Puello/Paniagua/Saldana/G.J.RodriguezBring on the 1st Rd College Lefty J. Wicks or whichever college pitcher slides to them. To back fill all those starters in PB that hopefully get to move up. There’s a lot of good names in there and probably some that I missed. Not really sure what to do with guys like Sisk/Holba/Soto/J. Moreno.
STL: Molina/Knizner
MEM: Rodriguez/Heineman
SPR: Herrera/Ortega
PEO: Pages/Antonini
PB: Soto/Longa/Rodriguez (See if he can stick)
GCL: Burns/Raposo/Richardson/Draft PicksProbably don’t need to address this position with a high draft pick.
STL: Goldschmidt/Edman/DeJong/Arenado/Carpenter/Sosa
MEM: Nogowski/Lopez/Mendoza/Moroff/Rondon
SPR: Baker/Dunn/Ascanio/Gorman/Robertson (Yepez in the OF gives them some flex here)
PEO: Whalen/Donovan/Perez/Diaz/Buchberger/Nunez (I think they might jump him past PB to a better hitting environment)
PB: Lott/Redmond/Castillo/Williams/Longa/Wynn/Walker (Wynn/Walker Start in PB stay if they perform)
GCL: Soto, Inoa, Diaz, Hernandez, Draft PicksI would take a long look at K. Watson and I. Pacheco at 18 in the draft. Another H.S. SS might be a good investment.
I think it’s STL or bust for Williams so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt with no options remaining I believe.
STL Fowler/Bader/Carlson/O’Neill/Williams
MEM Nootbar/Thomas/Capel/Dean/Toerner
SPR Yepez/Pinder/Hurst/Denton/Plummer (I think more of a make or break move)
PEO Vinsky/Reichenborn/Burleson/Machado/Cedeno
PB Fuller/Torres/Jones/Jew/Fletcher/Romeri (the last two might go back down once short season starts)
GCL Chamberlain/Koperniak/Moquette/Cruz/DeLosSantos/G.A. RodriguezMight need to look at College OF in the 1st 3 rounds this year.
MLB hasn’t released their updated 2021 rankings yet. From what I’ve seen they usually just add in guys to replace prospects as they are traded/graduated. They won’t drop or rerank guys unless it’s the 3 times a year they do it (Spring Training, Post Draft and Final). The new rankings will probably be out in a week or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramirez drops off. They have placed added value on relievers though and it’s based as much on how close they are to the majors, tools, and ceiling as it is results. So, some of those things push Fernandez up their board.
