Affiliate Observations 2020

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  • #120133
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    I guess this is a good time to start this new topic.

    We’ve added a few prospects and lost a few and there will be more comings and goings before our four full-season teams start up in April.

    If history holds, Brian will be predicting the opening-day rosters for all four affiliates as their startups near. Of course spring training will determine who goes where and since Brian will be spending time in Jupiter (I’m envious) he’ll have some inside scoops on landing spots.

    Some of you die-hards will be heading down as well and will be reporting on your own experiences and analyses of the Cards and the back fields… they are always welcomed.

    Its probably not too early to predict that Memphis will be loaded with pitching. The 40-man roster will need to be trimmed down to 26 with those not going North heading to AAA and AA camps.

    Its an very interesting part of the season for me…. plus the weather will be a lot nicer by then. 🙂

    #120134
    Avatarbccran
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    14 – I’ll be down there from 3/5-3/13. It would be great to meet for lunch with any other TCN folks who’ll be down there. Maybe Brian could join us if he has time.

    #120247
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    bc… maybe you should start a new topic like “spring training meetup” to hear from some other TCN ST attendees. It would draw more attention.

    I’ve been putting off this “bucket list” dream for so long, I need to make some reservations at some time in my life. It would be great to meet up with some of my buds here.

    #120258
    Avatarbccran
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    Thanks, 14. Will do that.

    #120288
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    I wonder if the elimination of the Appy and NYP leagues next year will affect player movement this year. Particularly GCL players. Will the team move some guys up quicker to the low A level to either get a better look at their potential or maybe so the transition next year is not as drastic? Of course anytime you move a player up like that it means cutting or demoting another player.

    #120476
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Paid - Annual

    CC.. is it certain that the 42 MiLB teams will be eliminated for next season?

    #120478
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Who knows if it is a done deal, a negotiating ploy, or all.options are still on the table.

    #120481
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Nothing is certain until a new operating agreement between MLB and MiLB is signed.

    #120549
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Did you know that our old bud Andy Young is ranked in the MLB.com top-10 for all 2B prospects. He was part of the Goldschmidt deal. Too bad it had to be him.

    #120553
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

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    From Nyrdcast.com

    Nyrdcast: Who is a lesser known prospect that we should be watching for?

    John Mozeliak:

    One player I think is on the verge of becoming a larger name is Ivan Herrera. To be able to do what he did at a demanding defensive position and carry himself offensively at the Florida State League, and at his age, was very impressive.

    #120554
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

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    Each MLB Team’s Most Overrated Top Prospect Entering 2020
    JOEL REUTER
    JANUARY 24, 2020

    St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Malcom Nunez—No. 9 STL

    In 199 plate appearances in the Dominican Summer League in 2018, Nunez hit an absurd .415/.497/.774 with 16 doubles and 13 home runs.

    That sent the 18-year-old from Cuba soaring up the organizational prospect rankings, but his stateside debut proved to be a rude awakening. He hit just .229/.305/.318 with 14 extra-base hits in 223 plate appearances between rookie ball and Single-A, and his prospect stock has crashed back to earth.
    *********************************************************************

    Reuter may have picked up on this if had read Derek Shore’s analysis of Malcom. Derek had him at #21 on his prospects list. The Community #10 and Brian Walton at #11.

    https://thecardinalnation.com/tcn-2020-st-louis-cardinals-prospect-13-malcom-nunez/

    Nunez will need to pick it up in ’20 to earn that TCN #13 overall ranking during TCN’s rankings in this years poll in the fall/winter.

    #120566
    Avatarflood21
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    Paid - Three Months

    Saw on Baseball America where the Cardinals made a lot of low level roster cuts and a few “name” players, Andrew Morales and Ben Yokley

    #120579
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    In fact, there is a members article about that with my commentary on the front page. Also one new international signing.

    #120589
    AvatarCardinals27
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    From years past, 17 releases seems like a high number. Is that correct?

    #120591
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Well, it may be a timing thing. It is an odd situation. MiLB goes to sleep over the winter, leaving BA as the only dependable source of minor league moves. BA used to publish transactions weekly, but this winter, they moved to once a month.

    Last winter, the Cards had several bursts of seven releases at a time. (If anyone really wants to dig in, all the prior Roster Matrix versions from the last decade are available.)

    We should also remember that as the players on the second DSL team gain more experience, the number of releases will increase because the number of US jobs remain the same.

    Taking it one step further, if the contraction plans come to fruition, 70 US jobs will be eliminated starting in June 2021. Extended spring training will be cut by about 2/3 – if it continues at all. The draft will be half as long and many other changes will follow.

    #120593
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
    Participant

    Free

    many other changes will follow.

    The players will make more money.

    #120594
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Paid - Annual

    bcran put up the list of our viable OF candidates for jobs in STL on the “dilemma” thread and included some recent stats. He didn’t include Dean or Carlson so for the 2 open spots there are 5 on the 40-man roster. (Fowler not included in that competition-FO gives him a pass).

    That would mean if the Cards carry 5 OFers, just 1 will go back to Memphis to join only Carlson on the Redbird roster. Springfield can deliver a couple of grads but after that the system gets very thin on solid OF prospects. Torres-Fletcher-Romeri-ACruz have little company among the rest of the remaining 5 stateside affiliates.

    There are a batch of once promising OFers that have regressed in the last few years and some that haven’t progressed as expected. It would be nice to see a couple of those turn it around.

    #120612
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Are you not counting Ravelo as an OF?

    MLB
    Bader
    Fowler
    O’Neill
    Thomas
    Williams

    I can also see the ML team going with just 4 OF’s if both Edmond and Munoz are on the roster.

    AAA
    Carlson
    Ravelo
    Dean
    Minor league FA

    AA
    Toerner
    Capel
    Nootbar
    Hurst
    Pinder

    I can see any of the first 4 of those at AAA with a good Spring

    #120637
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    #120640
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    14 – I didn’t include Carlson’s stats because he’s well known
    as a viable prospect. I did include
    Dean’s because he isn’t as well known.

    But my point is that the OFers from Springfield on down were less than unimpressive in 2019.

    The Cardinals minor league teams had in the aggregate one of the worst records in recent memory.
    It’ very possibly problematic.
    The pitching from Springfield on down was an issue too.

    #120641
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
    Participant

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    Does anyone know if those high school degrees meet US high school accreditation standards or only Dominican Republic standards?

    #120642
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    The main shortfall for the system overall in 2019 was pitching, not offense. I did a lot of analysis on the subject back in September, including player ages relative to their league competition. There were two articles. This is the second, which includes a link to the first (subscriber content).

    Youth a Factor in Rough 2019 across the Cardinals Minors

    #120644
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Brian –

    I agree with you re pitching being the major problem. But when I put together a spread sheet at the end of the season I was astounded by the lack of position players who exhibited any kind of respectable BA, OBP, OPS, power, or speed.
    Maybe they were just working on specific things and won’t show appreciable production until they get to the higher levels. But it’s pretty scary compared to prior years.

    #120645
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Another data point beyond the cumulative winning percentage of the Cardinals farm teams ranking 29th of 30 last season is this. Carlson was the only Cardinals post-season All-Star, hitter or pitcher, across the six different leagues that had them. All-stars are chosen by the league managers and coaches and media members, not those “biased” national raters who always overlook the Cardinals.

    I do not understand when some folks assert this is a top 10 system. Lotsa words, but results speak louder. Quantity is good, as that depth means winning teams, but star power is the differentiator. Last year, the Cardinals system was short on both.

    #120646
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    To the OF specifically…

    At CF, TCN’s only top 50 prospects are Fletcher (who is green and miles away) and Capel (who is questionable for MLB).

    In the corners, after Carlson, there is Torres (also green), then Williams, Toerner and Patrick Romeri (who I really like, but at the GCL, is even further away than Fletcher).

    As noted, the middle levels of the system are dry in the OF in terms of prospects…

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