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This is really my favorite part to see who people like and why this far down on the list. Jeske, Love the Nootbar pick. I’m really interested to see if he can sustain and if the “juiced” ball helps out his power numbers you referenced. I also really like the Terry Fuller picks. I’m disappointed he didn’t come up a little higher in my formula. Some rinse and repeat here:
35 – Tommy Parsons – Not much more to say about Parsons. Good command and pitchability who will get a shot at AAA next year and hopefully a chance to pitch his way into the big leagues.
36 – Seth Elledge – Continues to pitch very well in the AFL. 0.60 WHIP and 8 strikeouts in 5 shutout innings. Hopefully can build on that and improve upon his numbers in AAA next year. Has the FB/Slider combo to become a high leverage bullpen arm in STL.
37 – Austin Warner – My current favorite of the soft tossing lefties. Hopefully Gingery can move up the list next year, but I need to see more than 1 inning in 2 years to be a believer. Not the biggest guy, listed under 6′, but good CU that he mixes well with a good FB and CB. Probably a middle relief type, but you can never have enough good lefties. Unless you’re the Cardinals I guess, which means you only need two in the bullpen, you know, for emergencies.
38 – Ludwin Jimenez – Pretty much a league average in the GCL this year though somehow was 3+ years below the league average age (That’s young). There is a lot of projection here, but already throws a solid to + CU with a good CB. If his FB continues to improve into the lower to mid 90’s he’s got a good starter profile. WHIP and xFIP both were higher this year than last, however the Cards pushed him up for a brief cameo in A+ at the end of the year which is a good sign that the organization believes in him (also helps that GCL and PB share the same park). He certainly bears watching as he continues to grow into his 6’2″ frame.
Carioca, May be a bit of fatigue for Martinez honestly. The slash line you reference for Ravelo in his 39 big league ABs is a pretty small sample at this point but looking back over their career minors numbers they both show well above average numbers at the plate by wRC+. Remarkably similar to my eye (granted I’m on my phone at the airport waiting for my flight to Korea so the numbers are smaller.) I will admit I based that comment was a little more on gut feeling than numbers. I was surprised that Martinez has been a league average hitter this year. I think Ravelo is a bit more useful in the field to my eye, but overall I think their value on the bench is a wash after looking a little deeper in the stats. So to answer your question I guess personal preference and a little artistic license bordering on hyperbole.
31. Tommy Parsons – Not going to beat a dead horse, but really, if you like Fagalde, you should love Parsons. Feel good story with a little better stuff in my opinion. I think he didn’t trust/command his offspeed stuff enough in AA and got into some trouble. If he’s able to get back on track and cut down on the homers by trusting his stuff he’ll take off next year and be the next Cardinals “devil magic” pitcher.
32. Rangel Ravelo – Another guy who should be on the bench now taking most of Jose Martinez’s ABs. Good bench bat with power who is what he is at this point. I like this guy and hope he gets every chance to stay in the show next year.
33. Seth Elledge – Pitching well in the AFL and just needs the consistency to be a legit candidate to break camp with the big club next year. Likely another year in Memphis as there is no rush to add him to the 40 man and start his clock. Likely a high leverage reliever who could profile as a back of the bullpen guy at some point, though I don’t think he beats out Hicks, Helsley, or Fernandez for that role anytime soon. Still really good odds to be an impact reliever and that’s pretty good depth to have this deep in your system.
34. Austin Warner – Toss up for relatively soft tossing lefty who makes it to the big leagues and confounds guys between Warner, Kruczynski, and Gingery. Gingery has the best pitch, but injuries knock him down a little until he can pitch again. Krucynski got hit around this year so that leaves Warner as the what have you done for me lately candidate. Pitched really well in AA which is a separator. If he can stick in Memphis next year and perform, that says a lot about his future. Maybe a back end of the rotation lefty or maybe a AAAA guy. Either way a good piece to have in your system.
23. Tommy Parsons – Pretty much you’re prototypical low-ceiling, high(ish) floor pitching prospect. Has good command of his pitches with good control. Plus change up and good enough FB to keep hitters honest. He is a couple of ticks on the radar gun away from being a middle of the rotation type of starter, though I think it’s unlikely he gets it. Still a solid back of the rotation type starter which is about right in the mid to late twenties in the Cardinals system now to me.
24. Andre Pallante – Frankly Pallante, Locey, and Ralston are all kind of equal to me currently. Obviously the Cards like Locey a little more with his advancement to Peoria, however I think Pallante has the more balanced starter profile. Plus FB and Slider with average and developing CB and C/U with great command in college. Has all the tools to work with to be starter in the bigs one day. The Cards really picked up their pitching depth with this draft and guys like Oviedo and Seijas starting to put it together. I think PB will have a deadly rotation in 2020 and still be able to maintain with the arms coming up from Peoria that don’t make that rotation out of Spring Training. I like the possibilities of their pitching depth currently.
25. Mateo Gil – Might be a little early for a guy with a +106 in Rookie league ball, but he was 2.4 years below the league average. Generally considered a good fielder with the skills to remain at SS long term and showed a little more pop than I expected. He has a long way to go as a prospect, but certainly has the tools to work with to be a really good value at SS.
26. Tony Locey – Probably has the best FB from this year’s draft class. Still needs to refine all of his offerings to reach his potential, but I can certainly see a Lance Lynn starter kit with him. Another FB/Slider guy who has the floor of a power reliever but will be given every chance to stick in the rotation. Again, I am really not able to break out Locey, Pallante, and Ralston. However, Pallante is little above due to his more advanced repertoire and control, but Locey has by most accounts the best “stuff.” Again, hard not to be excited by the one year improvement in the pitching depth.19. Julio Rodriguez – There are a lot worse things to have in your system than a good to great defensive catcher who put up a 115 wRC+ at roughly league average age while being named a FSL all-star. I still have a hard time envisioning him as more than a b/u catcher at the MLB level, which, again, isn’t the worst kind of prospect to have in your system.
20. Tommy Parsons – Here is another prospect that my formula likes better than I do. I wanted to move him below most of the pitchers drafted this year, but left him as a rooting for the underdog kind of thing. If he gets another tick on FB to go with a good C/U and CB he has back of the rotation promise as an inning eater that commands his pitches well. Otherwise he’s probably the command over stuff pitcher that gets eaten alive at AA. So far the stats say he’s the latter, but I’m pulling for the underdog here.
21. Andre Pallante – Solid FB/Slider guy who pretty much tore up his first taste of college ball. Four solid offerings with good control gives him in my estimation a #3 starter upside with a very good chance of staying in the rotation for the long haul. Going to be in a crowded mix for PB rotation with the chance to move pretty quickly through the system. PB could very well have a stacked rotation next year.
22. Luken Baker – If you haven’t already done so go back and look at Jeske’s write up on Baker and Toerner. Baker is a good bet to take off in AA next year. If they get the juiced ball look out. Enormous power potential and good plate discipline numbers over the last two years are worth getting excited over. With any luck he’s a pure masher that gets to the big leagues coincidental with the arrival of the DH in the NL in 2-3 years (I kid, I kid).
15. Edmundo Sosa – Worst case should already be taking Yairo Munoz place in the bench/utility role. Best case he maintains his roughly average wRC+ at the MLB level with well above average defense at 2B/SS/3B. Unlike Yairo Munoz he’s a legit SS with ability to play the entire infield with above average defense.
16. Johan Oviedo – Big framed righty whose FB velocity has started to tick back up after abandoning him at the lower levels. It sounds like his CU and CB started to come around this year leading to improved numbers in A+ and AA. Still young for level while pitching 3+ years below the league average in AA. Didn’t dominate in his few starts at AA, but his FIP and xFIP were better than his ERA which is encouraging. If he continues to improve his control, particularly with the FB could be Top-10 by mid-season. It will be interesting to see how the juiced ball effects him next year.
17. Julio Rodriguez – I admit that I don’t know much about how to rank catcher defense, but by all accounts he is one of, if not the, best defensive catcher in the system. Played most of the year in A+ putting up a 115 wRC+ in a pitcher’s league providing good defense and game calling while leading a really good pitching staff and being a FSL All-Star. League average to slightly below for age. I’m not sure I actually think this highly of him, but on this one I’m trusting the formula to identify value. I guess we’ll see, because in my opinion the most likely outcome for him is a AAAA or backup catcher which isn’t really a Top 20 prospect, even in a somewhat diluted system.
18. Trejyn Fletcher – Very much a projection over performance right now. Cardinals obviously think highly of him as they promoted him to JC very early (as in 42 ABs and 149 wRC+ in GCL). Struggled mightly with some obscene k% numbers (44% and 40%). Still, a great value pick as he was a top prospect in the 2020 class prior to reclassifying to be eligible this year. Everyone compares him to Plummer, but he strikes me as much more of a quick twitch athlete that I think will be able to adjust as long as the work ethic is there (there is no reason to believe that it isn’t.) Very young guy with a lot of potential outcomes, but a very high ceiling that the Cards need to roll the dice on to get star power into the system.
This is the point in the rankings that it will get interesting. A lot of guys in this area with tools to get excited about but holes in their game that give pause for concern. This is the fun part.
That’s a good system. I’m curious how many people on here have developed an analytical system for rankings. I came up with a spread sheet that subjectively ranks prospects as well. I then averaged my rankings with “Expert Rankings” from MLB.com, The Cardinal Nation, Fangraphs, Baseball America, Birds on the Bat, and Prospect 1500 (I thought it would be interesting to have a fantasy spin). I actually have an average of every Cardinals Top Prospects list I could find but only used those 6, mainly because they had post draft lists. My subjective categories are Ceiling, Probability, Current Performance, Age/League, Organization (promotion), Level, Injury, and 40 man roster bonus. I weighted all of these by how I viewed their importance and came out with a subjective top 100 or so. I think it does a good job of breaking prospects into tiers. So mine clearly breaks out Carlson, Gorman, and Knizner as Tier 1, with Montero, Arozarena, Cabrera, and Fernandez as Tier 2, and Herrera, Torres, Thompson, Nunez and Williams behind them. I made a few changes based on my personal preferences for my vote on here, but it was a good place to start.
Mudville, I’m with you on Garcia. He seems tailor made for the A’s or Blue Jays, which are both teams that seem to work well with the Cards FO. I could see him fetching a young pitching prospect, lottery ticket type in the Oscar Mercado trade vein (whom I love seeing succeed in CLE by the way.)
A lot of rinse and repeat here:
11. Genesis Cabrera – Given the refinement that he needs on his command and control 10-15 is about right. It’s just really hard to not be excited about a left hander with a power fastball/slider combo. If the change up comes along sooner than later he’s a legit #3 starter as early as next year.
12. Junior Fernandez – Power FB with a C/U that I think is underrated. It’s a potential wipeout pitch.
13. Jhon Torres – Big power potential with currently above average ability in a corner OF spot. If he is able to continue his growth and maintain his athleticism, he has All-Star upside. Out performed Nunez in JC this year though 1 year older. Frankly Nunez and Torres are pretty much linked together in my mind.
14. Justin Williams – Has been well above average at every level with the exception of 2018. Showed glimpses at the end of the year of returning to that form by punishing AAA pitching. It would be handy to have another capable left handed option in the line up or even on the bench. Still a lot of upside as he was 3 years younger than the league average for AAA.Pretty Interesting Top 10. Honestly there are a number of really exciting prospects after this year’s draft.
7. Genesis Cabrera – Tommy Pham trade doesn’t look as lopsided when Cabrera and Williams are performing.
8. Zack Thompson – Another lefty. I see his ceiling as mid-rotation maybe #2 starter if everything falls into place. 4 solid pitches and can command them. Great risk-reward pick for the Cards in a pitcher heavy draft.
9. Junior Fernandez – I’ve been a big fan and now that he’s back to healthy, the FB is dangerous again. Definitely has closer upside. I’m usually less inclined to think of reliever as top-10 prospects, but Mudville makes a good point about the importance of bullpens in today’s game, particularly a lock down closer, which I think is his ceiling.
10. Jhon Torres – Struggled at Peoria (4 years younger than the league average), but turned it on to the tune of a 149 wRC+ in Johnson City (still roughly 1.5 years below league average age). He has the ability to be a middle of the order thumper with good plate discipline. Lots to be excited about, but trying to temper it some because he is so far away. Probably a repeat trip to Peoria on his horizon this year.Cardinals27, I’m with you on the pitchers drafted this year. I’m also intrigued by the two HS arms they signed in Statler and Hart. I’m really big on Ralston. Big college lefty with passable stuff and a small possible to plus it up. Really good numbers in brief work at State College. Very interested to see if he can push to make the PB rotation out of Spring Training next year. I think you’ll see Thompson and Pallente in the PB rotation next year, likely with Seijas starting their as well. That leaves two rotation spots for guys like Locey, Thomas, Ralston and Yesenka to battle for and that doesn’t take into account guys like Cordero and others. Pitching is going to be much more competitive this year than last, which is great.
My top 5 is pretty solid, but after that its a little bit of a toss up for me to some degree 6-12. There are some good arguments on here for Herrera and Rondon, however:
4. Elehuris Montero – Hand injuries (particularly hamate bone injuries) are historically difficult for hitters to recover from, so I think the AFL will be telling as far as where he is in his recovery. I still think he is one of the top 2 or 3 pure hitters in the system.
5. Randy Arozarena – My personal favorite prospect in the system. I hold out hope that he can beat out Fowler in Spring Training for a spot in the OF next year. A 162(AA)/151(AAA) wRC+ is really exciting. To me he closely resembles Tommy Pham. That’s a pretty good piece to have lying around the farm, but better to have starting in the MLB outfield.
6. Genesis Cabrera – Basically it’s very close for me between Cabrera, Z. Thompson, Herrera, Fernandez, Torres, Nunez, and Rondon (not to forshadow my next picks or anything). I lean Cabrera because of the potential in that FB, but primarily the fact that the FB emanates from his left hand. If it all comes together for him by Spring training of next year I really like a starting rotation with Flaherty, Hudson and Cabrera.
Christopher Jeske, last year it was determined that since it is hard to track the accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster piece that the 130 AB/50 Inning requirement would be the standard in this forum. I assume it is the same this year. I’m sure nyquist or Brian can provide more information.
1. Dylan Carlson – Made all the prophets pointing towards a break out year look like geniuses to the tune of a AA wRC+ of 142 on his way to TX League player of the year (if you’re wondering his wRC+ in roughly 80 PAs in AAA was 161). I will be interested to see his performance in the AFL.
2. Nolan Gorman – I really wanted to keep him in my number 1 spot, but the MVP for Carlson pushed him over in my calculations. Their stats are much closer than you would think. Just a sample of OPS/wRC+/ISO/Age for league:
Peoria: Carlson .689/101/.107/-3.3 Gorman: .792/128/.207/-2.2
Palm Beach: .731/112/.138/-3.4 Gorman: .732/117/.172/-3.3
Obviously they do it in different ways (Gorman’s power vs. Carlson’s all around approach) but their numbers are strikingly similar in A ball. All in all, I hope to see Gorman and the “new juiced ball” in Springfield next year.
3. Andrew Knizner – Starting to figure it out at the MLB level even with up and down time this year effecting his overall numbers. Not sure what the Cardinals will do with Yadier in front and Ivan Herrera continuing to improve behind him. Not a next year problem yet I don’t think, but something to watch for sure.Nyquist thanks for taking this on. This is my favorite part of this site and I thank Brian for giving the readers of this site the opportunity to vote and share their insight. I look forward to reading everyone’s reasoning and opinions. For the above list I believe #47 Casey Meisner has moved on as well.
Looks like Jack Owen is headed back to AU.
Jack Owen Back to AUI’ll take that as a compliment. Frankly I’ve learned quite a bit from reading from a lot of the posters on this board and others. Certainly no expert, but these are the guys I look up on a regular basis. I know most of these guys won’t pan out for one reason or another, but I love an underdog and I love to see who fights through the “humble” beginnings and makes the show. I will say of these guys I’ve seen some writers that really like Justo’s stuff. Gonna keep an eye on him this year. I enjoy the minors almost as much as the big show, and I can afford it. This has certainly been enjoyable. I look forward to Brian and Derek’s write ups for all of the prospects. It’s especially cool when they agree with you (I mean why can’t everyone see that Mike ONeill and Alex Fagalde are basically the same person. Ha). Anyways I really enjoyed everyone’s input on this list. Thanks to everyone for taking the time to input. You guys really are some of the most knowledgeable fans around. Warm up the hot stove and trade rumors and let the next season begin, go Cards.
This has been a great deal of fun. At this point its a bit of a crap shoot. I don’t see a great deal to separate my #75 from my #126. Lots of younger guys in here that will break one way or the other over the next few years. There is a lot of upside in the GCL and DSL though. Lots to be excited about. Here’s another 26 players, on top of the 100, that I like, follow in the box scores.
Nick Plummer
Diomedes Del Rio
Kevin Vargas
Andrew Warner
Francisco Justo
Colin Schmid
Jim Voyles
John Kilichowski
Tommy Parsons
Evan Sisk
Wilberto Rivera
Oneiver Diaz
Connor Coward
Perry DellaValle
Alex Gallegos
William Jimenez
Victor Villanueva
Cole Aker
Walker Robbins
Lars Noobaar
Kevin Woodall
Tyler Webb
Blake Drake
Raffy Ozuna
Jose Moreno76. Jean Selmo
77. Brady Whalen
78. Jacob Patterson
79. Mike O’Reilly
80. Adanson Cruz
81. Johan Mieses
82. Roel Ramirez
83. Jacob Schlesener
84. Sam Tewes
85. Winston Nicacio
86. Evan Guillory
87. Yowelfy Rosario
88. Ian Oxnevad
89. Michael Baird
90. Matt Pearce
91. Brian Pirela
92. Irving Lopez
93. Donovan Williams
94. Terry Fuller
95. Rangel Ravelo
96. Ronnie Williams
97. Brendan Donovan
98. Cristhian Longa
99. Stefan Trosclair
100. Stanley Espinal71. Jean Selmo – Doesn’t seem to have caught on with the voters here. He compares very well with Carlos Soler, Joerlin De Los Santos, and Adanson Cruz in my opinion. Could get interesting as he is Rule 5 eligible.
72. Wadye Ynfante – Another Rule 5 eligible guy who has talent, but hasn’t even conquered full season ball yet. Down year for the former top prospect, but can restore some of that value with a hot start.
73. Brady Whalen – Big guy with big talent that I think will start to put it together this year. Low average and SLG, but good OBP. 14% walk rate and 20% strikeout in State College speaks to good approach at the plate. Turns 21 this year with a lot of room to grow. I think power and average will come sooner rather than later and we could see him as a breakout guy as early as this year.
74. Jacob Patterson – Lefty reliever with good strike out to walk numbers and a pretty good FIP for PB this year. Thought to be a quick to the majors reliever, who should be in the upper minors this year. Might get a shot as early as this year if his stuff plays and injuries necessitate.
75. Mike O’Reilly – Had remarkable numbers over the past two years prior to a rough year in 2018. Doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so it’ll be interesting to see if he is still able to get outs consistently above A ball. All in all, could be a useful piece down the road.
66. Jean Selmo – It’s hard to argue personal preference as far as DSL outfielders. I think Selmo has a great swing with a big arm and lots of potential. It’s a pretty exciting DSL outfield. Just wonder how much of all of their stats was due to a down turn in pitching talent in the DSL this year that some people were talking about. Either way I think he has as much potential as any of the DSL hitters.
67. Wadye Ynfante – Had him a little higher on my list but frankly the power hasn’t developed like most thought. Still a lot of potential but a rough year with the bat brought some of the excitement of last year back to earth.
68. Carlos Soto – Another exciting catching prospect. Gonna be tough to get playing time for all of them with great/good prospects at every level and HOF’er holding down the next few years at the top of the food chain.
69. Bryce Denton – Really fell down the prospect board. Lost his first year in Peoria with a poorly timed bout of appendicitis. Seemed to really effect him that year. Has started to come on at the end of every year. Still has time to show that hitting prowess that had the Cards pull him away from Vandy. Kind of feels like a make or break year for him in PB.
70. Brady Whalen – I think this guy could really break out with the bat this year. I think he’ll end up in Peoria and really start to put it all together. 14% BB and 20% strikeout with a surprisingly low BABIP .250. Still had an OBP around .350 with a low average. Got better throughout the year at SC. It just seemed like something was starting to click. Here’s hoping for a big rise up the rankings for the big guy.
Rinse and repeat from last time.
61. Jean Selmo – Sweet swing with lots of potential. Good arm for a corner outfielder.
62. Zach Jackson – Big lefty with power. If he can stay behind the plate and tap in to the raw power consistently, he’s gonna be a big time prospect soon.
63. Nick Dunn – Contact oriented college hitter who performed pretty well in his first taste of pro ball. Projects a lot like Max Schrock to me. Maybe not quite as good of a hit tool.
64. Juan Yepez – Struggled more than most in the FSL. Started to turn it around towards the end of the year. Has some really good 1B/3B behind/with him (Montero and Baker specifically) that will take time away if he doesn’t get back towards the 198 wRC+ hitter we saw in Peoria
65. Justin Toerner – Probably assigned to low by the Cards last year. Really took off at the end of the year and ended up in PB. Should be interesting to see if the Cards return him to PB or if they really challenge him with Springfield. Really excited to see if the 28th rounder’s play was a hot streak or a true diamond in the rough.
56. Jean Selmo – Sweet swing with lots of potential. Good arm for a corner outfielder.
57. Zach Jackson – Big lefty with power. If he can stay behind the plate and tap in to the raw power consistently, he’s gonna be a big time prospect soon.
58. Nick Dunn – Contact oriented college hitter who performed pretty well in his first taste of pro ball. Projects a lot like Max Schrock to me. Maybe not quite as good of a hit tool.
59. Juan Yepez – Struggled more than most in the FSL. Started to turn it around towards the end of the year. Has some really good 1B/3B behind/with him (Montero and Baker specifically) that will take time away if he doesn’t get back towards the 198 wRC+ hitter we saw in Peoria
60. Justin Toerner – Probably assigned to low by the Cards last year. Really took off at the end of the year and ended up in PB. Should be interesting to see if the Cards return him to PB or if they really challenge him with Springfield. Really excited to see if the 28th rounder’s play was a hot streak or a true diamond in the rough.
