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MLB Trade Rumors just reported it might be 5 years. I’m not a big fan of 5 years for him, but it’s not my money.
6. Ivan Herrera – C
7. Matthew Liberatore – LHPI think Ivan Herrera is still pretty solidly at 6. While he scuffled at the MLB level in limited at bats, he really didn’t get the chance to adjust. So that’s a throw away. 111 wRC+ in his first go at AAA isn’t bad. The power didn’t show up as much, but I still think that was a pretty successful year for his age.
Liberatore was a little tougher. I think he’ll eventually develop the consistency to be a #3 type starter, but I don’t think he’s the top of the rotation type guy I’d hoped for. Still a lot of value, but honestly he’s very similar to McGreevy for me and I put him ahead frankly because he’s a lefty. Overall, that’s still a very valuable prospect if it all comes together and he’s pretty close to a #3 already. So while it seems like a bit of let down, he’s going to have a lot of value down the road. Possibly even as a trade chip.Not to state the obvious, but going to NY to escape the scrutiny of STL seems at least counter-productive.
#5 Burleson, though I think he likely ends up as trade fodder. He just doesn’t seem like the Cardinals type with his lack of defense. Somebody will get good value from him so hopefully the trade is a win-win if I am right.
I agree with slidinleft above, gets pretty tight after this I think. Herrera and Liberatore still have time to become what everyone thought (thinks?) they would even after a down year. I’ve just convinced myself (probably wishful thinking) that the club is going to put together a couple of their back end top-100ish guys to get an impact P/C/SS. A guy can dream.I’ll take Hence at #4. Production over a smaller sample size. He has the big time tools for a ace type arm, but is a lot of projection right now. Can he survive a third time through the order, which he hasn’t been asked to do yet? Not a bad floor though, as he could quickly be a back of the bullpen type if needed. Hope the production stays through the innings ramp up and probable promotion this year. Nice to have a few exciting pitching prospects to wish on again.
Can I jump in? I have Graceffo #3. He checks all the boxes to remain a starter and might even have #2 upside in a big league rotation. Four pitch mix and the command to throw them all for strikes. I like the make up. Look forward to seeing Graceffo and McGreevy dominating in the Springfield (or maybe even Memphis) rotation to start the year.
MLB.com Minor League Rule 5 Draft Results
Looks like the Cards lost one and gained four. A couple of other familiar names in there for the prospect followers on here.
33. Jack Ralston. I admit that he’s a little old for his league but he did strike out 101 in 67 IP.
STLCard25. If it makes you feel better he was exactly league average for age in Peoria. (-0.3 years off average to be exact.)
31. Luis Pino – Kind of a bet on the Cardinals scouting department as he grabbed an 800K signing bonus. Excelled as a member of the the Cuban Jr National Team. 30% K rate in the DSL won’t play, but still managed a 122 wRC+ as a 17 year old in his first taste of pro ball. I’ll be interested to see if he starts off in the FCL this year. If so, he could struggle again as the age and experience in the FCL has increased with the loss of the Appy and NY-PENN Leagues. Overall, Cuban outfielders developed by the Cardinals have done well, albeit with other teams (still too soon?).
32. Jeremy Rivas – This spot is actually three names and I’ll just retroactively edit and take credit for whichever super young international SS ends up succeeding between Rivas, Adari Grant, and Jonathan Mejia(when/if he signs). Seriously though, thanks to COVID never took a pitch in the DSL and started in the FCL with a respectable .271, which worked out to a wRC+ 87, as an 18 year old while playing a solid SS. Hit for 0 power so that will need to improve for him to rise in the prospect rankings, but a good young prospect to have in the system.
33. Dionys Rodriguez – Tough assignment to go from DSL in 2019 to full season ball in 2021 due to the COVID year. Earned a rotation spot by mid season and looked pretty promising. 3.36 ERA with a 3.37/3.81 FIP/xFIP. He’s 20 years old and throws mid-90’s, touching 97 in some starts. He also has a good SL and an above average cutter to mix in. I think he has a CU but he doesn’t throw it much. Very good value to have in the 30’s in your organization and could break out in Peoria this year. I’m excited to keep an eye on this kid this year. He needs to develop his CU to remain a starter, but he’s fun to watch and I hope he remains a starter this next year, hopefully in AA.
34. Jack Ralston – I like Ralston as a prospect, more so than #34 but this is where he fell out. I’ve read that a lot of people think he’s a reliever long term, but pitched well in the rotation for Peoria. Walks at 4.84/9 were a little elevated, but a 13.57 K/9 looks good. 3.49/3.19/3.60 ERA/FIP/xFIP are all very good numbers in a down year for Cardinals pitching. A really funky delivery (somehow the ball goes from his knee to a straight over the top delivery, like a windmill) makes his low 90’s FB play up. Has a very good CB
35. Jose Davila – Good season in the Complex league. 3.77 ERA with FIP and xFIP of 4.26 & 4.80. Promoted to High A for the end of the year so somebody seemed to like what they saw. Throws mid-90s with good spin for a young guy and has a solid CB. If he continues to develop then a breakout for 2022 looks promising.
Also, Baseball Prospectus released their Top 10 Cardinals prospects today and Baseball America should release their list pretty soon as well. Tis the season…
(Spoiler Alert…1.Walker 2.Gorman 3.Liberatore 4.Burleson 5.Baez 6.McGreevy 7.Yepez 8.Winn 9.Herrera 10.Donovan…Also quick writeups on Hence/Love/Graceffo/Thompson and a few others)21. Edwin Nunez – You can’t teach a guy to throw as hard as Nunez. You can teach command and mechanics. Had some good moments to go along with his struggles in PB. Very young for the league and he still has time for the command to improve. The Cardinals left him in PB even once the Complex league started. Clearly they like him so I’ll stick with him another year and see if the production shows up.
22. Jhon Torres – Again a young guy that was allowed to stay at a higher league for the entire year instead of being sent down. Still young for the league but not terribly so. Still has all of the tools and the swing is geared for an average to plus hit tool that should be able to leverage his natural power without sacrificing average. Kind of player who could hit around .275-.280 with 20-30 HRs if he continues to develop. He’s hit everywhere else. I think he’ll start off well in Peoria this year and hopefully gets a quick promotion to Springfield. I’m admittedly bullish on Torres and think he’ll start hitting again this year.
23. Luis Mario Pino – He’s a CF that will likely grow into a corner OF. Sounds like he’s got average speed but gets a good jump in the OF. His 122 wRC+ in his first professional season (at 17) is encouraging as is the 6 HRs in 174 PAs. The 30% K rate is not ideal, but he’s a young guy likely trying to do to much. He’s a really exciting, albeit high risk, prospect. Probably a little high for a guy who hasn’t played in the states yet, but he has all the tools to be great. Turns 18 in Feb so maybe he is in the complex league or even a super aggressive assignment to PB similar to Nunez and Torres. I think that latter is less likely but will be interesting to see.
24. Austin Love – His stuff was dominant…in 8 innings. I’d like to see him start in Peoria this year like they did with Bedell prior to his injuries. His FB isn’t dominant so he’ll need to really develop his SL to continue as a pitcher. The FB is reportedly a high spin offering, but stays flat. If that improves, his profile ticks way up given the command and control he has shown. His CU however is great. Made good hitters in the ACC look pretty silly at times last season. He will likely show out this year as good secondary offerings play well in A ball. AA will be where we see what Love has. I like his chances to move up the list this season.
25. Ian Bedell – So much to love about this guy. I’d have him borderline Top-10 if not coming off TJ surgery. True 4 pitch starter that has a lot of movement on his pitches. Not sure what his timeline looks like for a return, but he was drafted young for a college guy so he should still have plenty of time to develop.
Bob Reed
Much like Josh Baez and his .158 batting average, or Tre Fletcher and his 40% strikeout rate, I don’t think it’s possible to find an MLB player, past or present, with a minor league season as bad as those guys in his past.
That’s a logical sentiment and I understand wanting more production before you go all in. My argument is stats in Rookie League don’t paint the whole picture. I looked at a few names that came to mind for high schoolers drafted at the top in the past few years and frankly most if not all of them did better than Baez (and Fletcher for that matter) in Rookie ball. Having said that, the complex leagues are a bit different now than the past. The average pitcher age has increased along with the average hitters age just due to the loss of the SS A Ball (JC and SC). It seems a few of the HS hitters got many fewer at bats than they normally would have (also due to the draft getting pushed back and fewer games). All to say while your point is valid, it’s not necessarily apples to apples just due to all of the change. It will be interesting to see how this changes things. Will slower developing prospects (Plummer/Perez types) get the runway to develop or just flame out sooner?
I’m just betting on talent, but also acknowledging there is greater risk with HS bats from northern states. Seems to take them longer to adjust, like that Nick Plummer guy (with some added injuries as well). That’s what makes this such a good debate.
16. Tink Hence – Would like to rank him higher but the organization keeping him in the FCL without letting him get his feet wet in a few games at PB is curious. Could be a good candidate to break out in 2022.
17. Edwin Nunez – Very different prospect from Hence, with an electric FB and working to harness the rest. Average CB that could improve and pair with triple digit heat. Screams reliever, but might develop into a starter if the CB/CU turn into weapons.
18. Delvin Perez – He’s made strides and still has the Gold Glove ability at SS. His DRC+ and wRC+ were 93 and 80 respectively so still remains a below average hitter, though he did show a few hot streaks. He’ll go as far as his glove will take him. If the bat picks up he could still live up to his first round pedigree. Bat is looking much less likely though.
19. Luken Baker – Has never had a wRC+ less than 115 (121 in AA in 2021). Power showed up with 26 HRs in AA. His picture comes up if you Google prototype DH. Hopefully that becomes a thing in the NL or else he probably doesn’t spend any time on the STL MLB roster.
20. Jhon Torres – Still young and making strides. Has all the tools and I still think he puts them together. He had a terrible first go in Peoria in 2019 when he was challenged with a tough assignment (36 wRC+) and then killed it in the Appy League. Spent the whole year in Peoria with an 86 wRC+ to show for it. Maybe it’s just Peoria.
Wont be home where my list is until tomorrow night so doing this from memory, which is pretty shoddy.
11. Baez – Understand those that want to see him play full season prior to voting, but I’m not really concerned. He certainly seems to have the work ethic and certainly the talent to bet on. He’s the kind of guy that most will bet on until proven wrong. My biggest concern is the Cards don’t have a great track record of developing this kind of hitter.
12. McGreevy – This is the type of prospect the Cardinals do have a track record with. Strike thrower with good 4 pitch mix setup with a good FB/SL combo to start from. I like him as a high floor, some ceiling kind of pitcher in the Michael Wacha mold.
13. Donovan – I really like him as a baseball guy but as valuable as a utility guy that gives quality at bats is, it’s hard to get excited about on prospect lists. Should probably be higher on my list but…
14. Pallante – has done nothing but excel in the Cards org. Has gone from an afterthought to a back of the rotation type starter who manages to outpitch his “stuff”.
15. Malcom Nunez – kind of feels like the odd man out who the Cards eventually turn into a reliever at the trade deadline. Feels like a guy that just hits and hits and when/if the power really shows up will be a good MLBer for a while.#7 Baez – This is a tough one because on pure upside alone Baez is probably in the top 3. Burleson however is so close to a finished project that a call up to the bigs seems like a certainty. I’ll bet on upside here, but Burleson has really impressed. Hopefully he hits in AAA this year like he did in A+ and AA.
#6 Ivan Herrera – Not much to say. Slightly above average in AA while very young for the league. Will likely play most of the year at AAA. Bat first catcher with a strong work ethic and improving receiving and defensive skills. Seems to be the heir apparent behind the plate. Could easily be 3-5 in this ranking and a border line top 100 prospect with a few services putting him in the back end of their lists over the last year.
#5 Masyn Winn: Probably the biggest boom or bust prospect in the system. Above average (112 wRC+/108 DRC+) at PB at 19 with a promotion to Peoria, following Jordan Walker. Struggled at the plate with a 48 wRC+ but only slightly below average by DRC+ (83). So a little bit unlucky, but not completely overwhelmed while being 19 at High A ball. Statistics certainly aren’t the whole story with prospects and that is certainly the case for Winn. Kyle Reis has a good write up on Masyn at Birds on the Black (highly recommend the Dirty Flirty Top 40 on BOTB) and brought a few good points. He loves Masyn’s defense. Basically puts him as a top 2-3 defensive shortstop in MLB ceiling type prospect. Also very interesting was his observation that Winn makes others around him better. He points out that Jordan Walker’s sudden improvement at Peoria coincided with Masyn Winn’s arrival. Certainly a far cry from the assertion that he was a problem child when he was drafted (Stemming from an incident at an AAU event I believe). Either way sounds like he is a good teammate. Overall as a SS he’s top 5 in the system, particularly if his hit tool improves to even average. If his pitching comes along, it could be interesting the ways they could use him.
