December 24, 2019 at 2:25 pm #117533Bob ReedParticipantFree
Where do you rank a guy, when he’s in his 30’s already and you’re only guaranteed to have him for two years? Pretty tricky. Well, one good thing is that the Korean Baseball Organization is equivalent to the American upper minors — like Triple-A, but a lowish Triple-A — so he’s effectively been effective in lowish Triple-A ball for more than a decade. (For those who don’t know, he was MVP of the league way back when he was just 20 years old.) Thus, there’s a huge body of work that should make his MLB projections more reliable.
Naturally I’ve been looking at Kim’s forecast per the ZiPS projection model, the only one available for Kim so far. And I have to say I’m pretty darn impressed.
ZiPS pegs him for 157 innings in 2020, with a 3.89 ERA and 106 ERA+. How good is a 106 ERA+ for a starting pitcher? At Fangraphs they are currently rolling out ZiPS projections one organization at a time, and have covered six teams so far (Mets, White Sox, and the entire N.L. West, save for Frisco). Here’s a list of all the starting pitchers projected to have an ERA+ between 102 and 110:
Robbie Ray, Dustin May, Ross Stripling, Marcus Stroman, Chris Paddack, Kenta Maeda, and young phenom Luis Patino. Conveniently, those seven pitchers actually average a 106, same as Kim. That’s a peer group and a half, really very very nice. (For instance, Marcus Stroman is the Mets’ clear #3 starter, and they’re supposed to have one of the top 4 or 5 rotations in the sport.) And moreover, KK is forecast to be almost exactly as good in 2021 as well.
I would rank him 4th in the system behind just Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, and Ivan Herrera. He likely won’t give you as many wins above replacement in two years as I expect (or at least hope) to get from Knizner or Rondon or Arozarena in six years of team control — but given his recent consistent excellence, Kim has more certainty I think than any of them and could perhaps provide more wins above average in two years than they do in five or six seasons.June 17, 2020 at 10:08 am #13082614NyquisTParticipant
The fan voting process has been imitated but never duplicated, as our readers continue to be the some of the most knowledgeable people anywhere when it comes to the players in the Cardinals minor league system.
It may have been interesting to have had a fan poll to place our new prospects. (Included in the new top-50 rankings?) Si o no.June 28, 2020 at 2:39 pm #131723
I think Nunez should be ranked #30, just before Fagalde. I would have ranked him lower if Fagalde hadn’t struggled at AA. IMO, Nunez should rank behind many 2019 draftees like Ralston, Pallante, etc.June 28, 2020 at 10:08 pm #131777CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
Our farm system is weak but not that weak!August 23, 2020 at 9:52 pm #136651
It appears the Cardinals may have a number of prospects become ineligible after this season. Carlson, Whitley, Fernandez, Sosa among others. Possibly Oviedo, Elledge, and SAchrock, too, but that might take more injuries.September 29, 2020 at 9:16 am #14248214NyquisTParticipant
This is a question for the upcoming rankings…. which young players have lost their prospect status this season?September 29, 2020 at 11:02 am #142514Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
The question is more complicated this year because the MLB rookie qualification is different due to the shortened 2020 season. My advice is ignore trying to count days of service and look at at-bats and innings pitched only. Those numbers are easy to access so enable clarity in qualification questions.
27 of MLB's Top 100 prospects who have already played in the big leagues remain eligible for the 2021 Rookie of the Year Awards.
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 29, 2020October 14, 2020 at 12:35 am #144440
Will the at bats and innings be prorated for rookie status purposes?October 14, 2020 at 2:56 pm #144502Brian WaltonKeymasterPaid - Annual
No, the above article explains it. The major change is that September time counts this year.October 16, 2020 at 8:09 pm #144719CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
Are we doing a ranking this year?October 18, 2020 at 12:02 am #144835
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