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Looks like Meisner is already on the list. Please replace with Victor Garcia at 51 as I somehow dropped him off. Must have mixed them up on my tracker.
51. Casey Meisner – If he can sustain as an innings eating back of the rotation starter, he’s certainly worthy of a top 50 spot. If he can continue to refine his control at AA, he should hit AAA this year with an outside shot at St. Louis.
52. Jonatan Machado – Big on defense, not much of a bat. Really the same profile as Sierra with a little less arm from what I’ve seen/read. We’ll see how he look at Peoria this year with another year to grow.
53. Jean Selmo – As I answered to Carioca, I see Jean Selmo, Carlos Soler, Cruz, Mendoza all in the same kind of range. They look great in DSL (with Soler getting the promotion). I’m not sure what his Rule 5 status is since he was taken last year, but he’s a little more exciting to me, even though Soler was in CF with Selmo in a corner OF/1B slot already. I think his bat will carry though. I really like his swing from the video I’ve seen. Hard to tell in the DSL, so hopefully he and the others are in the states this year and can get a legit scouting report. A lot of exciting prospects in the Rookie league as compared to the last couple of years.
54. Zach Jackson – As stated before, big lefty power bat. If he continues to progress he’s a different kind of catcher than anything they have in the system currently.
55. Derian Gonzalez – Cards were big on his arm last year adding him to the 40 man. If he stays healthy, he’s probably in the bullpen in STL by the end of the year, at least riding the shuttle. Here’s hoping for a little health for him.
Carioca,
That’s fair. Statistically Soler did have a better season. The organization promoted him as well. Frankly I see Soler, Selmo, and Cruz as roughly the same (Same general age, well above average season, OF). I would usually give the benefit of the doubt in this case to Soler, only because of his in season promotion to the GCL and subsequent performance there. However, I can’t help but think because Selmo was a Rule 5 pick the organization didn’t want to highlight him with a promotion (who doesn’t love a good conspiracy theory). He’s a kid I think will get a little bigger, I read that most think he has a good arm and will develop power down the line. Also, though I’m no expert, I like his swing. So, long story short, call it a semi-educated guess (because I know very little other than statistics about Soler). Overall, there were a lot of prospects, particularly outfielders, that are exciting in rookie ball this year. That’s got increase the chances of one or two of them panning out I would think.46. Victor Garcia – Good year in GCL. Interested to see if the organization challenges him or sends him to JC.
47. Casey Meisner – Held his own starting this year. Seems like he has good not great, but still a starter with good traditional numbers and decent peripherals. I imagine he’ll start in AA depending on how the big league bullpen shakes out in spring training.
48. Jonatan Machado – He reminds me a lot of Sierra, which, I wasn’t all that enamored with either. Defense first slap hitter type. Sierra hasn’t done much with the Marlins yet. We’ll see if he is able to pick up in Peoria better this year.
49. Jean Selmo – I’m intrigued by this guy. Big frame and lots of potential for a rule 5 pick. I’ll admit I have no idea what his status is for this year after being a rule 5 pick up last year.
50. Zach Jackson – Lefty catcher with a big arm and supposedly a power stroke. Looked good at times in JC this year. If he continues to improve it will be an embarrassment of riches at catcher in the system.
Sorry for the delay. Been traveling back to Japan this week.
41. Scott Hurst – Big arm, good speed, good hit tool. Feels like a typical Cardinal who, barring injury, has a floor of a 4th OF for the big club, but if the power picks up…could be something special. Feels a little higher than a 40’s prospect to me.42. Alvaro Seijas – Great pure stuff. Needs to control his stuff a little better. If the walks come down in Palm Beach this year, he should shoot up the rankings and, with Oviedo hopefully, give the Cards two great pitching prospects that should be ready when the big league club needs a few more cost controlled arms.
43. Victor Garcia – Really wanted to put him in my top 30. So many bright prospects in the rookie leagues in my opinion. Said to have big power when he was signed in 2016. Hasn’t grown into it yet, but did hit well in GCL last year. I’ll be keeping an eye on him this year. An outfield of Garcia, Fuller and Torres possibly in JC could be built for power.
44. Casey Meisner – Started rough, but had a better end of the year. Big guy who pitches down hill, but doesn’t have the big fastball you’d expect from his size. Pretty good numbers last year, but seemed a bit inconsistent. Probably starts at Springfield and moves up to Memphis as the shuttle starts running.
45. Connor Jones – Showing pretty well in the AFL. May have one more chance to prove he and his bowling ball fastball can carry as a starter, but really needs a reliable third pitch.
This is where the depth really shows. I’ve got probably 20 more guys who you could put in the top 50.
There is a lot of promise and depth from 20 on. A lot of young, unproven guys with star (or bust for that matter) potential.
36. Delvin Perez – Perez still has top twenty talent with little production to show for it. Probably not going to develop power in the Francisco Lindor mold, but still a great piece to develop.
37. Junior Fernandez – I think he comes back strong from the injury over the last year or so. He still has the stuff to start and is young enough to continue to develop. Should be interesting with a full off season to buildup how he looks in AA.
38. Scott Hurst – If he can stay healthy I for see him moving up rapidly as he is another of the many CF type outfielders in the system with a good hit tool and great arm. Again, all rides on his health.
39. Alvaro Seijas – He is pretty much tied to Johan Oviedo for me. Both struggled at Peoria early with a rebound in the second half. Said to have a high spin rate fastball with late movement. Some definite potential to end up in the bullpen, but could become a Helsley type starter in the system as early as next year. Should thrive at PB at a young age. Looking forward to seeing Seijas and Oviedo in the pitcher friendly FSL.
40. Giovanny Gallegos – Probably should have had him rated higher as he will likely be a contributor to the big league bullpen this year. I guess my rankings are a little more biased against relievers than I had hoped.
31. Delvin Perez – I don’t think he’s lost all that talent and had stretches of being a good hitter in short season A ball last year. I’m thinking he’ll put it all together this year in Peoria and start moving up the ladder in a real way.
32. Conner Capel – I think he’ll improve with a little more time in the system now and expect/hope to see Capel in Springfield this year. I think he’ll be able to show a little more there than he was able to in PB.
33. Junior Fernandez – Still got the stuff of a top 10 guy. If he can prove to stay healthy and continue to refine and reign in his pitches, he could shoot up the rankings again by mid-season.
34. Leandro Cedeno – Probably a top-10 type hitter if he continues at the pace he’s going. Has raked everywhere he’s been. Hopefully he ends up teaming up with Gorman again in Peoria to start the year.
35. Steven Gingery – I think he has more talent than #35 on this list, but would still like to see him pitch post TJ surgery. Less risk than there used to be from that recovery, but still. Kind of a soft tossing lefty with a disappearing change-up in the Marco Gonzales mold. I don’t suspect he’ll get a ton of work this season coming back off surgery, but if he could push his way to PB that would be a big indication of how the club sees him.
26. Jhon Torres – Excited about this guy. Anxious to see if he hits in spring training like he did this year and possibly gets the GCL to Peoria test that Machado and Montero received.
27. Delvin Perez – This should be the year he turns the corner as his attitude and maturity have improved. Or not.
28. Connor Capel – Didn’t really take off after the change of systems. Should improve with a year in the system and hopefully being paroled from the pitcher friendly Florida State League.
29. Junior Fernandez – Still a live arm that needs control. Came back from injury and pitched inconsistently and with very low strikeout numbers. If he transitions back to the rotation and can harness the live arm, he goes back to the top 20. If he’s another wild bullpen arm then he drops again in my mind.
30. Leandro Cedeno – He’s done nothing but hit the last couple of years and this year added power. OF/1B type whose bat will have to carry him. But really looked good with my hometown JC Cards this year.
If Machado ends up staying in Dodger blue, do they put Justin Turner on the market? Big salary and a lot of other bats to get into the lineup. 4.5 WAR in 365 AB, 33 and 2 years left on his deal. It’d be interesting if the Dodgers were interested in moving him.
21. Evan Mendoza – Not much more to say, a pure hitter with good to great defense. If the power develops he’s a solid regular at 3B.
22. Jhon Torres – This guy is what a star looks like at that level. Must continue to develop, but lots of tools to work with.
23. Andy Young – Really has performed over the last two years in the system. Adds power to the utility role. Could be a Jedd Gyorko type by the time he’s developed. Interesting piece in the Cards’ system.
24. Delvin Perez – Seemed to have a better year at SC with fewer of the maturity issues showing up. If he continues to grow and mature he’s not far off from where Francisco Lindor started. I don’t think he has that ceiling, but all the tools are there for a solid SS.
25. Justin Williams – Well rounded OF prospect that just didn’t seem to get it going for whatever reason in AAA this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back pretty strongly this year and make this ranking seem well short of his potential.
BHCard, I think this puts him in the Alex Reyes category. The rule is you must exceed 130 AB. I think he finished at 130 exactly, so if Reyes is still a prospect then I assume O’Neill is as well (since this site doesn’t take into account 25 man roster time accumulated).
16. Adolis Garcia – Already talked about him, but frankly the abs alone should get him in at 16.
17. Evan Mendoza – Doesn’t fit the mold of a power hitting third baseman yet. If the power comes though, he would shoot way up the list as the first guy on the list who can really pick it at 3B. Even played a little SS along the way. In my opinion has the best hit tool at his position in the system.
18. Evan Kruczynski – Another lefty starter who doesn’t seem to have the stuff that Cabrera has, but has all the pitchability you like to see in a back end starter. I’ll be interested to see how he handles the more hitter friendly leagues of the upper minors. Could move way up by mid-season.
19. Luken Baker – This guy can hit. Maybe the NL will have a DH by the time he makes it to the majors, because he screams DH to me. But man, he can hit.
20. Jhon Torres – I have about 3 guys I want to put here (Woodford, Young, Edman) because I feel like they should be in the top 20, but I’m going out on a limb. This guy has the room to grow into a physical specimen, in my opinion, has as much potential as Nunez and Gorman. He may not put it all together, but if he does he reminds of a Giancarlo Stanton type. Maybe that’s hyperbole…but maybe it isn’t. Time will tell.
11. Randy Arozarena – Raked at in the Mexican League and AA. Struggled with the bat in AAA but came on in the playoffs to the tune of .407/2HR/9RBI and a 1/1 SO/W ratio. Really the only outfielder in the system with true 5 tool potential, IF he can get to his potential.
12. Genesis Cabrera – Again, best left handed stuff in the system. Still young, if he can harness, he may lessen the blow of Tommy Pham’s big finish (and whatever he gives them the next three years) with the Rays. I may be pulling a little too hard because of that and he’s a left handed starter (currently).
13. Adolis Garcia – Bonus points for giving Tyler O’Neill a little competition on the body front. Best outfield arm in the system. If he develops a better approach at the plate, is one of the best talents in the system.
14. Dylan Carlson – Dylan Carlson is like eating your vegetables. Good for you, but not exciting. You see he has a great approach at the plate, but it’s still surprising to me that he is an above average hitter, which is a real feat at any age in the FSL. I am confident he will be a major league hitter, not sure about the outfielder part. He should develop power as he continues to mature, but I think that will push him to 1B. I can’t wait to see if the Cardinals push him to AA as a 20 yr old. If so, that could be where he breaks out.
15. Griffin Roberts – I chalk most of this review up to reading scouting reports. Seems to be a great slider with a good fastball and developing change. Frankly he sounds a lot like Dakota Hudson lite. Interested to see him pitch next year.
8 Randy Arozarena-bat really came alive in the playoffs. Kinda has a Tommy Pham kind of game to me.
9 Malcom Nunez-love the high leg kick. Seems to barrel up everything he swings at. My favorite stat…44 games, only 3 or 4 games(mobile, going off my ever worsening memory) he wasn’t on base. .497 OBP. Oh and that triple crown thing.
10. Genesis Cabrera-Plenty of stuff. Still time to bring it all together and be the dominant lefty we all want.
#7 Carson Kelly. I think I’ve fallen into a little bit of prospect fatigue with Carson Kelly, but he and Knizner are essentially the same age. I see them as being virtually tied with the winner being whomever continues to improve their perceived weaknesses. Between the two, Knizner has been played at 1B which to me signals that the organization believes in his bat, but more in Kelly’s glove. I haven’t seen that as much this year, but food for thought.
Getting close to voting for Nunez, but a couple of others that I have also been keeping an eye on down in the lowly rookie leagues are: Jhon Torres (I see him and Nunez pretty equally ceiling wise), Jean Selmo (Can anyone layout his Rule 5 draft status for simple minds like me?), Victor Garcia (#19 Int’l prospect in 2016 signing class with power and starting to hit in the GCL), Julio Puello (numbers look good, but does anybody know what kind of stuff he has?) and Carlos Soler (in season promotion to GCL, which I haven’t seen too often.)Not to get off topic, but what a productive night for the heart of the Memphis lineup…Mejia/Arozarena/L.Thomas: 11-14 with 12 RBIs. That’ll work.
#6 Andrew Knizner. I honestly don’t know how to rate catcher defense. Probably because it’s hard to produce quantifiable statistics. Having said that it’s a pick’em with Knizner and Kelly for me. Knizner has hit everywhere he’s been and between that and probably some prospect fatigue with Kelly I’ll go Knizner. It will be interesting to see what the organization does at catcher. Do they use one as trade bait or put Kelly on the bench behind Molina. Either way another year in AA for Knizner would seem like a real disservice to his development.
#5 Elehuris Montero. This is the closest rankings in my top 10 between Montero, Knizner, and Kelly. To me Montero possess the most upside, particularly if his defensive struggles are overrated. Huge bonus points for being an above avg hitter in the always difficult FL state league. I am curious to see if they give him the Evan Mendoza treatment or push him to AA to begin next season. Either way I’m anxious to see him in the more hitter friendly Texas League. Still a big challenge at his age.
#4 Nolan Gorman. Probably my favorite prospect to track this year along with Malcom Nunez. Power was as advertised, but did a great job in the Appy League with plate discipline, which I believe translated to a better than advertised hit tool. That didn’t seem to follow him to Peoria, but he seems to have the work ethic to continue to develop. The only thing keeping Gorman and Nunez down the list for me is being so far away from the majors. To paraphrase a Keith Law saying, ‘that’s what stars look like at that age.’
Reading 14NyquisT’s post above it seems that O’Neill is my selection at #3, though Gorman is #3 on personal list. I think I understand the voting system now. My apologies.
PadsFS
Noah Syndergaard had the exact same injury.Thanks PadsFS. My quick google search at work only returned Reyes and I didn’t want to waste too many of your tax dollars looking for a good answer. Hopefully that bodes well for Reyes’ rehab.
#2 Tyler O’Neill. I’m pretty confident he’ll break the 130 AB threshold, however he’s still eligible so I’ve included him in my list. His combination of power and defensive ability should lead to a productive ML career, especially if his current strikeout rate in the majors trends towards his career norm closer to 25%, which I think it will.
