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70. Gianluca Dalatri – Really excited to see if he turns into what I think he can be.
71. Terry Fuller – Can always be a DE if this baseball thing doesn’t work out. Showed some development this year so I’m hopeful he can continue to improve, because at his size great things could happen.
72. Jake Burns – Super young, but has the tools. Probably a year early, but he could move up in a big way sooner rather than later.
73. Diego Cordero – Being a productive lefty will always give you a chance.
74. Scott Hurst – Atheleticism beset by injury. Hoping for a healthy year and a breakout of sorts at AA before he is surpassed by the younger talent on its way up.
75. Mac Lardner – 6’4″ lefty from Gonzaga…lets just close our eyes and pretend he’s a bigger version of Marco Gonzales.
Sorry I missed the last round. Young kids and Christmas.
I generally play around with a formula to try to input some subjectivity into my lists, but the next ones I’ll admit are purely based on who I like and who I read the box scores on to see how the did. So I guess these are some guys I’m really pulling for. Also I wrote one too many before I realized I left Justo off. Bonus at #70, so I guess don’t add him to the vote total.
65. Gianluca Dalatri – So I REALLY liked the 11th round pick a few years ago of John Kilichowski from Vanderbilt. I thought he was going to get over his injuries and take off. I’m proudly betting on the same dog at the track here with Dalatri. You can see the stuff will play in the big leagues, you just don’t know if the health will allow it. One of these lottery picks is going to pay off for me though!
66. Francisco Justo – I think this guy has the maturity and the make up to get to the Majors, even if he ends up in the bullpen. His story is easy to pull for.
67. Terry Fuller – He displayed a much improved hit tool (probably like a 35-40, but still) last year in JC and even to some degree in SC (123 DRC+ in JC) while still being below league average in age. He was so raw coming out of HS, you know it was going to take a while, but he’s to the point now though that he is holding his own and with his athleticism it’s easy to see him continuing to improve. If he gets any where near average as a hitter with his size and power he becomes a true thumper in that .240-.250 BA range that will still get you 30-40 HRs, albeit with 30% K rate and maybe a some walks thrown in for good measure. A power lefty bat who is a good athlete in the OF. There are worse things to have. He’s the longest of long shots, but, again, how doesn’t love dreaming about hitting the power ball!
68. Jake Burns – Dude hasn’t played an inning for the Cards, but I’m excited to see what the Aussie can do. Not much on the guy, but he seems to have a good hit tool, with some developing power and whatever mysticism that makes prospectors think people are good catchers. There is no stats really. Played 1 game in Australia this year and was 0 for 3 with a SO and and RBI and threw out 1 of 2 behind the plate while being about 10 years below the league average age. Not much to derive from that stat line.
69. Diego Cordero – He had a good ERA and made an All-Star team to go with a mid-season promotion. His peripherals are a little scary (xFIP (4.12/4.03) / DRA- (112/154)) and I don’t really know much about his repertoire, but he’s a lefty, so I guess he has a chance. Still, he’s gotten people out, but that profile hasn’t benefited some of the other soft tossing lefties in the system, so this year will probably tell a lot about him.
70. Scott Hurst – I’m a sucker for feel good stories about guys overcoming injuries to get to the majors. He’s got all the tools to be a good to above average CF, but can’t stay on the field long enough to develop them.
A lot of “ifs” in this section:
55. Gianluca Dalatri – Good stuff and will shoot up the board with a little bit of health. I think he’ll have a bit of uptick in his FB too.
56. Steven Gingery – If the Lefty ever really gets a chance to pitch he has(had) the stuff to move quickly.
57. Garrett Williams – If a change of scenery and coaching philosophy turns the light on for his control/command he could be in the running for a MLB slot sooner than later.
58. Francisco Justo – Size and performance of a MLB rotation piece. If he continues to perform as he goes up the ladder he’ll be a MLB piece, even if only in the bullpen.
59. Angel Cuenca – Young, high risk prospect who has the ability (with Ludwin Jimenez I think) to be the next “big thing” pitching wise from the DSL. Should be in the GCL this year so that should provide some look at where he goes from here.
50. Lars Nootbaar:
2019: A: 128 wRC+ / 128 DRC+ .245/.344/.443 ISO: .198 BABIP: .239
A+: 104 wRC+ / 124 DRC+ .275/.335/.338 ISO: .063 BABIP: .308
AA: 101 wRC+ / 135 DRC+ .269/.373/.312 ISO: .043 BABIP: .347Depending on how the STL OF shakes out he could start at AA or AAA this year. Interesting that his BABIP went up at each stop while his power numbers went down. DRC+ likes his season more than wRC+ though both saw him as a good hitter throughout the year. The DRC+ kind of makes sense given how it incorporates better pitchers for each league.
51. Gianluca Dalatri:
UNC: 2017 97 innings / 7.9 K/9 / 1.8 BB/9 / 3.34 ERA
2018 27 innings / 10.3K/9 / 2.3 BB/9 / 3.33 ERA (Hurt)
2019 32 innings / 9.8 K/9 / 2.3 BB/9 / 2.25 ERAHe’s got good enough stuff to build an MLB starter profile on. I’m betting on his stuff ticking up a little to match his size and the health to allow it all to come together this year.
52. Steven Gingery: Drafted in 2018 and hasn’t pitched a full inning in the Cardinals organization yet. Has the stuff but may never have the health to put it all together. Everyone loves the changeup and has enough of a FB and CB to get by as a starter, but has to stay healthy at some point or he is going to run out of runway quickly as a college draftee.
53. Garrett Williams: Dominated early, struggled at AA in 2018. Pitched better in AA last year, though the peripheral stats didn’t seem to like it (DRA-: 107 for 7% worse than league average). Hoping he benefits from a change of scenery and philosophy and can develop some control/command for his Above Average FB and Plus to Plus Plus CB. Most likely a bullpen type if he can make incremental strides but if it all comes together he could be a rotation piece. Pretty good flyer for a lefty that may be able to develop into a mid rotation starter type.
54. Francisco Justo: Had a very good year for the JC Cards with a 72 DRA- for 28% better than league average. He has good stuff but doesn’t generate a ton of strikes out yet. Has the size and make up the organization likes. It will be telling what the organization does with him this year. If he gets a rotation spot on one of the full season teams, then he’s got a chance to continue, but will likely run out of time prospect wise if that doesn’t happen. I’m betting on him continuing as a starter, but if I’m being honest he could just as easily get pushed to the BP with all of the options and the reduction in rotation spots. At 22 yrs old, if he doesn’t come out firing early he could even be a roster casualty. Their are certainly a lot of guys ahead of him in the pecking order for a rotation spot.
45. Lars Nootbaar – Not much else to say. If he produces this year he inserts himself into the conversation for some OF at bats and maybe even the I-55 shuttle as a lefty off the bench. Otherwise he is likely to be passed over as a few other names start to climb the ranks.
46. Ginluca Dalatri – Not going to rehash my last post, but he’s got the good stuff already and I think he has a little more if he continues to develop and has some health. I’m buying in on Dalatri.
Pick your favorite lefty section:
47. Steven Gingery – Needs to actually pitch in the organization. He had good stuff in college and supposedly had the best Changeup in the draft. Could certainly still reach his upside as a backend starter, but with his injury history and need to accelerate his timetable it feels like he’s destined for the bullpen. You just have to hope the guy gets to finally pitch.
48. Evan Kruczynski – He had as much prospect juice as anybody in 2018 and then 2019 happened. Still has good stuff but got hit around at AA and AAA. Hopefully he turns it around in 2021. Feels like a good bet as a bounce back candidate.
49. Garrett Williams – Don’t know much about him, but seems like he has good stuff but needs to develop better control. Solid to great CB that needs a good FB to work with. Probably a CB heavy lefty out of the pen if he can’t better control his stuff and develop his CU.
40. Logan Gragg – There’s not much more to say here. If he puts up similar production in a more age appropriate league for him he will shoot up the rankings.
41. Lars Nootbaar – He’s a bat first prospect with a good feel for hitting and an advanced approach at the plate. He seems to have enough arm to play either corner OF spot, but his bat will have to carry him. In his first full professional season in 2019 he played at 3 levels and performed well at each. His numbers at Peoria were particularly good with a 128 by wRC+/DRC+. If he picks up his power numbers at AA/AAA he can force himself into the corner OF conversation. Would be another good lefty bat in the system. I like him a bit better than Conner Capel. He has a ceiling of a starting OF, but more likely a lefty off the bench if he continues to progress. Kind of a mix between Justin Williams and Conner Capel for lefties in the organization.
42. Evan Mendoza – He’s probably the best defensive 3B in the organization (including STL) but he’s way down the list of 3B prospects) With Montero and Gorman on his heels at AA I think his best shot is as a utility IF type. He’s played some SS and 1B and is a good enough all around athelete that I think he would do well enough at any position on the IF. Frankly, he’d look a lot like Tommy Edman in that role. He raked at his primary placements in 2017 and 2018 in SC and PB with a 191/147 wRC+ (187/156 by DRC+) respectively, but stalled out at AA. If he can recover some of that production in AAA then I think he can find a place on major league roster, particularly if can transition to a utility role.
43. Delvin Perez – The good news is he compares favorably with a 17 year MLB veteran SS. The bad news is that it’s Rafael Belliard (Seriously, they’re pretty comparable). He’s still young and still is a great fielder who can make more plays than most at the hardest position on the field. He also had a better year at the plate than I thought with a 101 DRC+ in Peoria. He hit pretty well at the end of the season as well going for a .323 line with 11 of his 32 hits going for xBHs. Of course he also struck out 30% of the time. Overall he could turn into a late bloomer who puts on some much needed mass and can impact the ball a bit more when he does make contact. There’s still a chance for him as a prospect, but needs to show something soon. Even 1st Rounders run out of time eventually.
44. Gianluca Dalatri – This one is a bit of a reach based on projection, so stick with me here. He’s a 6’6″ 240 RHP, undrafted FA. He’s a 7th or 8th rounder in a normal year however. He’s had a number of injuries over the last three years, but when he’s pitched he’s been good. He has great stuff with a good FB with movement that I think will pick up a few MPH as he develops just due to getting healthy (if in fact he stays healthy). He also has a plus change up and good feel for a breaking ball. If the CB doesn’t come along he’s probably going to the bullpen. With a little luck and development he’s a legit middle of the rotation pitcher with a three pitch mix who could advance quickly through the organization. The risk here is high, but if he has healed with the time off he’s likely to jump up the rankings pretty quickly.
35 – Ludwin Jimenez – Sad to see that STLCard 25 TM the Fan Club. I won’t rewrite my previous statements, but he seems like a young pitcher that could really break out as he has been out of the public eye for a year plus and should have had some natural development/growth that I hope will pay some dividends with his stuff. Excited to see him in January.
36 – Levi Prater – Seems like a gamer. Stuff has outperformed better prospects in college. He seems to have a averagish FB combined with a good SL/CU combo. Can probably work as a starter at lower levels with that repertoire, but likely a pretty quick reliever transition with his size and possible ability to get a little more FB velocity in shorter stints. No reason to bet against him yet though as he seems to enjoy defying the odds. If everything goes right he could end up at the back of a MLB rotation, but most likely scenario seems to be middle relief.
37 – Edgardo Rodriguez – If he can stick behind the plate, his bat will play. If he has to switch, he’ll need a lot of development with the bat to carry him. He’s still young and seems to be a pretty advanced hitter for his age. Hopefully his defense comes along, but no reason to think it won’t improve at this point. Pretty good lottery ticket in the Matthew Liberatore trade (see what I did there? #Arozawho)
38 – Logan Gragg – Ended up bumping him up in my rankings. Hard to argue with his production. Proved to be too good for the NY-Penn League in his debut with continued success in Peoria. Cardinals seemed to like him as a starter, but will need his CU to come along to stay in the rotation in my opinion. Has a good frame for starting, but would also be a good FB/SL guy coming out of the pen. No reason to move him out of the rotation yet, unless competition forces him to the bullpen. It will be interesting to see where the Cards place him, particularly if he is in the rotation. I could see him starting out in Peoria again, this time for A+ ball if he starts well in the winter/spring.
39 – Alex Fagalde – Seems to be a pitcher over stuff kind of guy we all want to pull for. Has been very productive in the low minors. AA seems to be the real separator for whether guys like Fagalde can get by with a below avg FB. K/9 has decreased every stop, but that’s not really his game. Got bitten by a the HR at AA which inflated his numbers a large degree. If he can improve his AA numbers and work a promotion to AAA this year, then I think he’s got a good shot. Easy guy to pull for to beat the odds.
30. Seth Elledge – Good FB/CB. Strange that MLB and FG both have his breaking ball as a plus plus SL, yet his advanced stats only show him with a FB/CB usage rate. Based on the 83 mph avg velo I’d lean CB. Matt Thompson also says CB so, CB it is. Either way seems to get a lot of swing a miss with those pitches with K/9 in the double digits everywhere except AAA. His DRA- and xFIP seem to show him as a bit lucky with his ERA, but he has enough track record at this point, that he’s probably been better than the competition at this point. To reach his potential as a lockdown back of the bullpen arm however, he needs to clean up his control. If that continues to progress in the right direction he could be a real weapon in the bullpen. Even as he is now he’s a useful piece so…I’m probably to low on him. Either way a good piece to have.
31. Alvaro Seijas – Still has the good FB/CB combo. TCN’s write up had concerns about his velocity with it being down at times. This inconsistency might have been why the Cards seem to have cooled on him following a pretty good season of development. His peripherals have been underwhelming at every stop, however with xFIP and DRA- numbers that seem to match his average K/9 and disappointing BB/9. Overall, if he wants to stay in the rotation long term he will need to clean up his control issues and prove he can sustain his velocity over the long term. A FB that can dial up to 97 and a solid CB does make for a pretty good relief prospect though, so his floor seems relatively high.
32. Jack Ralston – Big guy with an overhand delivery and some deception. Good K/9 and BB/9 at State College in 2019. Will be interesting to see what they do with him going forward as he didn’t start a single game for the Spikes. I assume because of the high innings he pitched in college, but maybe they see him as a reliever. He needs a third pitch to go along with his FB/CB combo. Will be interesting to see what they do with him. I’m hoping to see him in the rotation in PB.
33. Ludwin Jimenez – This is completely based on the guess that his FB is going to come along and the velo will pick up. Probably the most boom or bust pitcher they have stateside (unless E. Nunez is in PB). I’m guessing he starts in full season with PB, but will depend on where is FB is in January I would guess. Good CB and CU so he has a good starter mix. If he continues to grow into his 6-2 frame and progress as a pitcher he can go as far as his FB will take him. Probably the upside of a mid-rotation guy with a #2 if everything goes right. Can’t wait to see how he looks in the spring.
34. Juan Yepez – Go ahead and admit it. You thought he’d blow up when he got to the hitter friendly TX League. You did, I did…it’s ok. Now he’s a 3B/1B/kinda OF guy who should mash, strike out and hopefully not embarrass you on defense. Not a lot of innings at 3B and 1B where he’s at in the system so hopefully Matt is right about his remade body. Practically everyone has him as a 45ish hitter with power that if it translates into games will play in the bigs. I think he’s a tick better hitter than that with 20-25 HRs sooner rather than later. I’m also voting for him at 34 so clearly I’m not completely sold on that projection. The really good version of him probably looks like his A+ numbers last year around .275 and 20-25 HRs and 20% K rate. Hopefully this is the year he breaks out in AA!
This portion of the Top Prospects list really gives you a chance to deep dive the statistics, and as we all know, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Hopefully you guys enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts on these guys as I do as I try to bring together a lot of different statistics and opinions from different sources. I bring this up because I wrote a lot more about these guys than I intended to.
27. Andre Pallante – Last pitched for the no longer in the Cardinals system Spikes of State College. (By the way, thanks Brian for posting the everything goes sale for the JC Cardinals in the other thread, scored some sweet JC Cardinals gear at rock bottom prices!) He pitched about 30% above league average by DRA- though xFIP and DRA both have him as a little lucky with his ERA (2.78 vs 3.08/3.38 respectively). Kind of to be expected for a pitcher with average to above average command and control in short season leagues. Overall he seems to have a good FB that will play up in relief and a good to above average slider to pair it with. His frame and stuff really point to a relief role at the big league level if he gets there, but no reason to count him out of a starters role yet. With the starting pitching depth and the reduction in MiLB rotations to fill I will be interested if he is in the PB rotation or if he is relegated to long relief while waiting for a spot to open up.
28. Patrick Romeri – Drafted out of IMG Academy in the 12th Round, which seems like a real oversight by teams. IMG is basically a low level college team with the talent they have. In any case, Romeri was 10-20% (DRC+/wRC+ respectively) above league average as an 18 year old in the GCL. Certainly held his own while producing some solid pop and a good walk rate. 28% strikeout rate is a little concerning, but kind of makes sense for his first “real” taste of pro ball. (did I mention IMG has a lot of talent?) Seems he has a swing geared for contact and an advanced approach at the plate. A swing change may unlock some over the fence pop, but with his youth and size already he should have some natural power to tap into that should translate to games. I could see a 50 hit tool with a 60-65 power grade for him if everything comes together. The loss of 2020 and the loss of JC I think hurts a guy like Romeri as he may or may not be ready for A ball yet. Hopefully the Cards give him the Torres/Nunez treatment and give him some time at PB and then move him to “Johnson City South” if needed, if that becomes a thing. Overall a lot to like about Romeri as he just seems like a true baseball guy. He’s a guy that could really jump up the rankings, but like E. Nunez is a high ceiling / high risk prospect due to how far he is away from the majors.
29. Griffin Roberts – Good FB that plays up in short stints. He has a true outpitch in his slider. He has a good shot as mid rotation type upside if his CU continues to develop but if it doesn’t work out can fall back to a relief roll as a FB/SL guy. Really tanked in his first go round in PB with a 6.44 ERA (66% below average for the FSL by DRA-) and 4.9/4.8 k’s and walks per 9. That’s pretty bad. However his ~15 innings in the AZFL were much better with 3.07 ERA, 11 k’s / 1.2 walks per 9. Obviously much better in a better league. With good stuff and 1 true out pitch you can certainly hope he is able to put it all together this year. The rotations in the minors this year are going to be very competitive, but there’s no reason to believe he doesn’t get a chance in either Springfield or Peoria depending on how things shake out.
Ah c’mon Nyquist, what pitching prospect isn’t an “extreme risk”? Seriously, very valid concerns with him, but he seems like a guy that has a floor of a high leverage reliever with a little bit of development and has the possibility of a three pitch Top of the Rotation type pitcher at his peak. There aren’t many guys with that ceiling in the organization currently (Liberatore, maybe Winn IMO). Everybody else is more of a mid rotation starter to me.
24. Edwin Nunez
25. Andre Pallante – Depends on who you read whether they like his FB or not, but seems like it has good movement paired with an above average SL. Outclassed his short season peers with a mix of good to great command and “pitchability.” A “Crafty” righty if there is such a thing. Overall has a good starters profile, and may have the makeup to remain there as a back end starter, but his command will give him a great chance of falling back to the bullpen where his FB will play up. Seems like a low ceiling, high floor guy that the Cards love. Fun guy to root for.
26. Julio Rodriguez – If the bat continues to improve he’s a starting caliber catcher with a great line drive approach. If it doesn’t he’s a journeyman backup with a great defensive skill set. Not a bad guy to have in the system. I wouldn’t be surprised if a catching starved team takes him in the Rule 5 draft and keeps him on the bench as the backup / emergency catcher.
Alright guys, Edwin Nunez has officially debuted at 24 on the TCN countdown. Time to get on board! Hahaha. Good write up Matt and Brian!
21-Edwin Nunez – As you can tell, I’m buying the hype on this kid. If he were drafted instead of signed at 18 he’d likely be a top 10 type prospect. Of course there’d also be a lot more information on him so I guess there’s that. I chose to believe.
22-Luken Baker – It’ll be interesting to see how he comes back off of the layoff. I really thought he had found something at the end of the PB season and was expecting a break out of sorts at Springfield. I still think there is a good chance of that happening, however I’m just curious how the long layoff is going to effect him (and really most prospects) coming back. If the DH is around to stay, I believe his value to the Cardinals increases and his ceiling is the good Matt Adams that doesn’t have to play LF.
23-Ian Bedell – Probably my favorite draft pick, because of the value he gives as a 4th rounder. He’s got a legit 4 pitch mix that are all above average with no real “out” pitch, but still a lot of value in that profile in that it plays up with his good control. I could see him as a mid to back end rotation piece with a slight chance he ends up in the bullpen. I think he has a very good chance of making the show so he is much lower risk in my opinion than most of those outside the Top-20.
So how does the tiebreaker work? Most 1st Place votes, most votes, or do we play NFL rules and it ends in a tie? I’d be for most votes I think.
18. Edwin Nunez – He comes in at 14 in my personal rankings due to what I view as an elite ceiling. He’s so far away though that I think 20-25 is probably about right. Signed at 18 due to eligibility issues with MLB, he still has a lot of projection left as a 6’3″ 185 pound 18 yr old. Obviously has an elite FB, touching 100 and working in the high 90’s, but is said to have a good (yet inconsistent CB) and a CU that he hasn’t needed to throw much. A three pitch mix with elite FB sounds like he has a floor of a high leverage reliever with legit Ace upside IF everything comes together. Very anxious to see where the Cardinals place him and how he performs. He’d be a little old for the Dominican league, but it’s a big step up to the GCL, so I think a late season promotion to the GCL would be the most likely scenario as it gets him to the states towards the end of next season, hopefully to get ready for the following instructional league. There’s a lot to hope on with his profile.
19. Edmundo Sosa – Smooth fielder whose power may or may not ever show up. His changed approach led to a bit more power, but not enough to really justify the loss in OBP in my opinion. Without the increase of in game power to drive the ball, his profile may not fit anything more than a utility IF in today’s game. Still, he will likely make a niche for himself in the majors just due to his defensive chops and still some time to see if the bat develops.
20. Tony Locey – To me, Tony Locey is a Lance Lynn clone. A big righty with a FB/SL (Lynn was FB/CB)combination that might be enough to get him to the show as a starter. Hopefully he can develop a cutter like Lynn has as well. His xFIP numbers were much better than his ERA in Peoria so I think he will be much better in his second actual season in the organization. There is a lot of pitching depth around him now and a lot less spots to put people with the MiLB consolidation. The minor league rotations are going to be fascinating this year with improved system depth and less rotation spots. Peoria and PB should be stacked.
15. Junior Fernandez – Should be a fixture in the bullpen this season. Needs to work in his change-up and slider into his pitch mix more to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball. I think he’ll have a much improved this year as I think his fastball velocity will back to it’s usual 97-98.
16. Jake Woodford – He would be in contention for the rotation for a lot of teams. Steady performer who will continue to improve and be a good back of the rotation starter for a number of years. I only wonder if it will be for the Cardinals. Pretty good value for this far down the system. He’s probably the victim of prospect fatigue, at least from me.
17. Edwin Nunez – This is admittedly a little high for the Dominican Fireballer. Kind of the antithesis of Jake Woodford (as far as prospect fatigue) He hasn’t pitched an inning in the organization yet, but an 18 year old that has 100 on his resume would be a first round draft pick if he were in the draft. I do wonder how he only signed as an 18 year old the way things go in international signings. A lot of risk with this pick, but a lot of reward too! Somebody has to take the mantle for overhyped international signing and I submit Edwin Nunez. I’ll put a little more about what I’ve read of him in the next round as I think a may get to vote for young Edwin a few times!
12. Malcom Nunez – I think Malcom Nunez is set for a huge growth year in his second year in the states. I think there was an adjustment to his first year in the US as well as the advanced competition he faced. He seemed to really turn it on for the JC Cards (RIP, gonna miss my hometown team) in the playoffs. I think he was getting more comfortable not only with the level of competition but in the US. PB will likely hide most of the strides he makes, but once he pushes back to Peoria (hopefully midseason) I think you will see a pretty good surge, if not a full break out.
13. Jhon Torres – Obviously a massive presence with power potential and an above average hit tool. This is what all-star RF look like at his age. If he continues to develop he will be a great piece for the Cardinals OF.
14. Junior Fernandez – I wasn’t sure I wanted to put him over Whitley, but frankly he has a great FB and possibly the best CU in the system. They pair well together and in a relief role I think he’ll continue to be a high leverage reliever and would likely close for a lot of teams that don’t have a Hicks level flame thrower (who does?).
#11 Trejyn Fletcher. I’ve gone back and forth between Fletcher, Malcom Nunez, and Jhon Torres here. Ultimately Trejyn wins out due to athleticism and ceiling over a better hit tool at the moment. Torres and Nunez both have the better hit tool currently and probably will over the course of the career, but Fletcher to me can bring a lot more to the table. Coming from a cold weather state he has a lot of strides to make, but he is over-flowing with ability. This ranking is based off a belief that he will develop into an average hitter that can tap into better than average power and still play a solid to above average CF. That’s a lot of projection, but that is worth a lot. I took Woodford out of my spreadsheet due to not being ranked on so many sites, but overall he’d slot in around 14 on my list.
I’ll take Rondon at 10. He’s pretty close to a finished product I think. Seems like a reliable innings eater that can slot in at the back of the rotation and give you quality innings, but without much to get excited about. He’s clearly a step behind the pitchers in front of him as far as ceiling goes and I think he’s kind of that second tier of high floor, low ceiling type of pitchers in the system.
#9 Masyn Winn. I’ve got him one spot above Angel Rondon, but they aren’t separated by much. Winn has a tremendous amount of upside, but just as much risk. Love the fastball. Love the power at the plate. Great instincts and hands at short, and by all accounts can stay there long term. I just think “the secret weapon” is really going to help him find his way to greatness. So far away though.
#8 Johan Oviedo. Don’t want to rehash too much, but I think he’s on track to clean up his control issues and is continuing to develop his SL and CU command. Combine that with a plus FB that may have a little development left and he has a ceiling of a #2-3 starter and I believe the floor of a 4 or 5. That’s REALLY good for the #8 prospect in your system I would say. For me he’s right there with Zack Thompson as second best pitcher in the system. It’s a pretty big difference between those three (Libertore, Thompson and Oviedo) and Rondone who’s still a lot of projection. The pitching on the farm has improved recently, with a lot of exciting options at all the levels.
#7 Johan Oviedo. Could go Knizner here, but frankly I’m not sure his ceiling is anything more than a league average hitter with good to below average defense behind the plate. Oviedo has already proven he can handle a back of the rotation spot and still has some projection left as he continues to refine his consistency with his motion. Overall, I could see another tick or two on his FB over the next year or so, but even without it he sits mostly 94-98 and can maintain it throughout a start. His slider is already tight and if he improves his command it’s a plus pitch that is a true out pitch that compliments his FB. He has a developing CU and an average CB that seems like a show me pitch that he doesn’t use much. I believe if he continues to develop he’s a #2-#3 type that can really complement a true ace. As of now I think he’s already proven he can hold down a rotation spot which pushes him over Knizner in my opinion.
Sorry, this 15 hour time difference from Japan to CST is making it hard to vote on time. Quick process question. Are we going to start voting 3-5 at a time after the top 10 like the past couple of years or are we going to hang with the singles for a while? My vote to follow.
Sticking with Walker for #6. Knizner is what he is at this point. I like him, but Walker’s upside is enough to put him over the top for me. Hopefully he gets to play this year and we all look silly putting him this low in the rankings.
Jordan Walker #5.
I love his upside a little more than Montero’s, particularly without seeing Montero back to his old self following his hamate injury. I think he ends up in RF eventually, though no reason to move him off 3B in the near term. As far as tools, I love the power as it looks plus to elite at some points, though it will only play as well as his hitting develops in the future. Seems like a super intelligent young man with a good work ethic, so he’s a good kid to bet on in that regard. Overall I see him as an elite talent with a lot of development left to do. On upside and talent alone I think he’s right there with Gorman and Liberatore. He doesn’t have their track record so this is as high as I can put him.
