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Getting Noot, Herrera, and Edman back, replacing Fermin, Pages, and (? Carlson?) should help with the offense. And should make it easier to give guys a day off. Dunno that we are who we are is right here. But they do need more from Arenado and Goldie, and they do need to win some laughers.
I’ll be at the game today. I have a bad feeling about this one. Terribly hot day with a spent bullpen facing a good pitcher. But if we lose you can blame me for this one!
Memphis lists “TBA” as starting pitcher tomorrow (Tuesday). Last night was Graceffo, and Thompson followed Graceffo last time through the rotation. Does this signal Thompson will get the start in Cincy?
I’m trying to figure out why they are starting Liberatore today rather than using, say, Robberse on Tuesday. Do they think that the Chisox can be beaten with a bullpen start? Maybe, but this sets up this spot in the rotation to go two more times rather than one before the 21st. And with Romero and Helsley having been used today, they have a short bullpen for a bullpen day. Perhaps they don’t think Robberse is ready. Or maybe they think Gibson needs more time off?
Glad to see Fermin get a start, and fingers crossed Carlson is ready to go….
If 45 days of service time is a criterion, and I think it has been, if the list comes out after March 12, Siani will almost certainly be off. And Fernandez. Would Rom’s DL time count toward those 45 days, too?
I’m looking forward to the list, Brian. I’ve been following more closely than I have in many years, so am particularly curious!
I’m curious to see how the AAA rotation shakes out. Seems to me Robberse has to start. Robberse is a 22 year old who has a sub-1 WHIP and sub-2 ERA in his first four starts this year, with over a K an inning. I don’t want to get too excited. Maybe AAA catches up to him soon. But I’d hate to see him not continue to get starts. After that it’s murkier for me, though I’ve long wondered if Pallante’s stuff would play better as a starter than a reliever, and I’m inclined to see if Thompson can reclaim the velocity on his fastball, so those are my next two favorites to have AAA rotation spots. Graceffo, Kloffenstein, McGreevy, and Sanchez are more of a bunch for me. Hard to pick between those four.
Pallante to AAA. Will they stretch him out to see how he works as a starter? I’d assumed Thompson would be sent to AAA to be 6th starter, but Pallante would be an intriguing choice.
Thanks Cranny-
Things are well if busy, and at this age the busyness is experienced a bit different from when I started with this online Cards stuff so many years ago.
jj-
Could be. Odds are it’s King to AAA. But the long term need is going to be in the rotation, not the pen, I’d think. So I wonder if they’ll take steps toward that.
Brian-
Probably right re Edman. But if Carlson can get to an .800 OPS vs. righties, I’d think his OF time would rise considerably, and I’d think that would mean less Edman CF time than would be expected. Perhaps Edman 100 games in CF, Carlson 60, with Noot 130 in RF (and 10-15 as DH), Carlson 30, Walker 120 in RF (and 20-25 as DH) and Carlson 40, for around 130 Carlson starts. That has Edman with the most time in CF, but increases Carlson’s playing time. Before spring training, I figured Edman for 130-140 starts in CF, and Noot and Walker about 10 more starts than listed above. We’ll see. TL/DR: If Carlson is hitting a lot better he’s gonna play a lot more, and I’m encouraged by his spring.
Bling-
At just 25 and with just 2 seasons of minor league ball, I’m optimistic there is growth potential for Burleson. I’m intrigued by that 2022 OPS at Memphis. The Baseball Reference projection for 2024 puts him at .717 OPS. That’s the center of projections. If he’s on the high side of that projection he ends up a useful player.
If Carlson has turned a corner, he’s the CF. Noot’s return moves Burly to Memphis and Donovan to DH/2B. Edman’s return pushes Siani to Memphis and Edman serves as 4th OF. (And as SS if Winn needs more time.) I’ve wondered if he thrives more start 80-100 games a year than starting full-time.
For the bullpen, I wonder if Fernandez and King show enough if that would lead the to send Pallante to Memphis to stretch out as a starter. If Thompson is 6th starter, sent to Memphis when Gray is healthy, who is the 7th starter? Right now, I’d guess Rom (when healthy) or Graceffo. Pallante might be a better option.
Having Saggese, Burly and Scott at AAA seems like good depth to me for the year. Siani, Fermin, and Pages would get callups to be backups in MLB in some circumstances.
I recognize that they have a logjam for the rotation in AAA. And yet I wonder if both Pallante and Thompson could begin the season there as the 6th and 7th starters.
Responding to Brian’s poll, I’ll put my money on Young. I agree with jnevel re Zuniga and potential upside. At the least, they can see how he looks in spring. Fermin and Siani seem to me possible 26th players on the MLB roster, late defensive sub if they pinch hit for Winn (with Fermin taking SS or Siani taking CF and Edman moving to SS). Kennedy is only 25 to Young’s 28 and that has me giving Kennedy the slight edge for being retained.
Brian-
I’d sure rather see Burleson as just 1B/DH/PH than OF. Not sure how much Fermin or Kennedy brings vs. Siani. Even with Edman as primary CF, I’d think he would be backup SS, and Donovan gives infield backup, too.
I was just wondering about that Pads. How do you see the bullpen? My quick take is:
Left: Romero, Liberatore, King
Right: Helsley, Kittridge, Gallegos, Pallante, and Fernandez, with Robertson or a surprise from a AAA pitcher as alternatives to Fernandez.I’m thinking they send Thompson to AAA to be stretched out when they need him to move into the rotation.
jnevel-
Thanks. Flashbacks to trades with the Rays are starting to come back. Sigh.
I thought about Siani on the walk home and you’re right. The likely late inning moves are to replace Walker on defense (and Siani helps with that) or Winn on offense (and Edman could move to SS with Siani in CF, so Siani helps with that, too).
I agree that Palacios would have rotted. I’m nervous for what he becomes, but since we got him practically for free my guess is that 4th OF is the max. I guess if Winn can’t hold down the SS spot so Edman has to play there that the 4th OF spot becomes dicey. Starting three of Noot, Carlson, Walker. Donovan as 4th, with less DH time for him and/or Gorman? More DH time for Burleson?
Hi gscott-
I think of Lynn as the one to be replace next year. If we can’t get 5th starter production in 2025 from one or another of Hence, Roby, Graceffo, Hjerpe, Robberse, McGreevy, or Kloffenstein that is at least equal to what they get from Lynn this year, they’re in deep doodoo. And a second of them in 2026. And that doesn’t include Thompson. I think the bet on saved payroll is not unreasonable.
I’d guess that they figure at least one player from the minor playing at minimum takes the spot of a veteran in 2025. Then another from the minors takes a spot in the rotation in 2026. Those savings would cover the increase in Gray’s contract.
One other thought…If the Cards are trying to get a pitcher by trade, does it help the Cards to have one of the three additions done? With the Cards needing three guys, other teams can sense desperation. Only needing two, we’re a top FA and a deal away. Maybe this lowers the price on the deal. A successful trade might also make us more attractive to a high level FA.
I’d seen the reference plan to 2.5 starters having the .5 as someone who might only make 20 starts, but who would have high impact in those starts. If the 2.5 were, say, Yamamoto, Lynn, and the .5, any ideas on who the .5 might be? Lynn seems more like a back end inning eater.
Bumping this up. Thanks again for the good work, jnevel! Lawrence, Leahy, Lopez, Quercueto and Suarez dropped from the 40-man. Waino retired. Buddy Kennedy added. That gets them to 40 on the 40 man. The non-tender deadline is Nov. 17. 3 more to drop by then to create space for Robberse, Kloffenstein, and Prieto. Barnes, Naile, and Fermin? Then 4 more spaces need to be created by trade or release for the four pitchers…
jnevel-
Thanks for that info re Yepez. I’ve not watched AAA games this year. My guess was that he was mad at not making the big leagues rather than overconfident to begin with and fat. Maybe a combo? Regardless, he’s shown more in the past. I’d give him the offseason to get his act together rather than leave him unprotected.
Thanks also for the take on Pages. Could see someone taking him in the Rule 5 as backup catcher if his defense is as good as some suggest, with the hope the bat will develop.
jnevel-
Interesting analysis. Thanks much!
I’m trying to figure out what happened to Yepez and Woodford this year. After an OPS over .920 in nearly 500 ABs in AAA to just .714 this year is a head-scratcher. I have him a bit higher, with separation from Gomez given Yepez’ solid earlier AAA work. Similarly, Woodford seemed much more effective the last two years, so I’m inclined to hang on to him. I’d have the two of them right behind Hudson (and definitely want to hold on to Hudson). And I’d flip Palacios and Zuniga. They can find another Palacios if need be. He has a higher floor than Zuniga, but I think also a lower ceiling.
Cranny-
If you mean to let them go at the end of the season, I’m mostly in agreement. They need some guys to fill in in the big leagues now and I’d rather not add anyone to the 40-man who would otherwise not need to be protected in the Rule 5 this offseason. So I don’t have much trouble with any of these guys being on the roster just now.
The one exception I’d make is Zuniga. Terrible overall results, but 36 K’s in 28.2 IP at Memphis makes me think there’s some potential there. He’s only 24 and this is his first AAA season. I’d be inclined to hang on to him.
