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There has been a lot of chatter about why don’t the Cardinals bring up all their prospects (Winn, Graceffo, & McGreevey get named mostly but I’ve also heard Victor Scott’s name). The answer is that the Cardinals are bound by 40-man roster rules. And while that isn’t really a concern today, it will be in a couple months. I want to walk you through the roster situation so you have a good understanding about where we’re at.
Today, the Cardinals have 38 players on the 40-man roster. They also have 3 players who are really on the roster but don’t count because they are on the 60-day injured list. But those 3 will count again when the season is over. So that’s 41 guys. That’s our starting point.
We will lose Wainwright and VerHagan after this season. That’s a sure bet as both contracts will expire and we’re not re-signing either. So now it’s 39.
We have a lot of spare parts in that 39 that we likely don’t care that much about losing. I’m going to start with the ones I’m pretty certain we don’t care about and then we’ll talk about the others in a bit. Those are Fermin, Lawrence, Suarez, and Motter. Consider them all history. That’s 35.
We need to now look at the Rule 5 eligible players who we have to protect to ensure they aren’t taken. Robberse, Kloffenstein, and Prieto absolutely all need to be added as they would be taken. That’s 38.
Now, we want to sign some starting pitchers, right? 3 is the number Mozeliak said. So now we’re back over the limit at 41. And, we may also want to add one to the bullpen. So let’s call it 42.
Now we have to make some decisions. Who else can we cut? I have some options. Naile, Gomez, Palacios, Zuniga, Yepez, Hudson, and Woodford are all potentials. But each one of these has some value with some future potential. But now you have to get rid of at least 2 of them. And probably more because there’s extra to consider.
We still have other Rule 5 eligible players plus a few mildly interesting minor league free agents that we may want to protect. The other good Rule 5 guys are Ian Bedell, Inohan Paniagua, Nick Dunn, Matt Koperniak, and Pedro Pages – all of which could very reasonably be taken. There’s also Logan Gragg, Jack Ralston, Chandler Redmond, and Nick Troglic-Iverson that are more long shots to be grabbed. And, Chase Pinder and Wilfredo Pereira are both set to be minor league free agents. So we could lose any or all of these guys from our system if they aren’t protected with a 40-man spot. I think we at least should protect Bedell and I’d be tempted to protect Pages too.
And finally, some still want to add Graceffo, McGreevey, Winn, and Scott to our roster. Where are they all going to go? If added, it has to come at the expense of losing players or not signing free agents that we all want. It can work out. Maybe you’re ok with cutting the other 7 above. But then you need to be ok with Gomez becoming Adolis Garcia because this is exactly what happened to him. We didn’t have room on the 40-man roster. I think we have to lose at least 3 of them and 1 more for each of the guys we bring up early just to see how they do.
I hope this helps put the dilemma in perspective.
I see that I missed adding Kyle Leahy to my list of potential cuts. He should be there as well.
I would definitely keep Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodriguez, Connor Thomas, Andrew Knizner, and Zack Thompson, but I guess some of you could feel otherwise. Everyone else is definitely staying on the roster unless they are traded.
You didn’t factor in 40 man players traded away to get the pitchers. I doubt all 3 new starters and the probable pen guy will be FAs. Also, with 3 new sarters and maybe a pen guy, we are not going to need all of Liby, Hudson, Thompson, Thomas, Pallante.
What is the situation as to taking Wilking Rodriguez off the 40 man after this season? I don’t think the Yankees could take him back, but would he have to pass through waivers?
BB – I believe you are correct on Wilking. He wouldn’t automatically go back to the Yankees but he would have to pass through waivers.
And to your point above – yes, trades of these guys could happen. It’s just hard to assume they will since you have to line up what you’re willing to trade away with what another team wants. But it’s possible that we free up some roster space this way.
I had high hopes for Wilking Rodriguez, also. ‘Hidden gem?, mudville thought. But as it stands now, the only reason I see for bringing Rodriquez back is that, if they don’t, the front office has to admit that they pissed away $100,000 of the boss’s money for nothing. Now a hundred grand is a mere pittance by today’s MLB standards, unless of course, your the boss whose hundred grand was pissed away. And it’s my understanding that WDWJr does, in fact, pay attention to those minor details. So I’d say that there’s a better than even chance that Wilking Rodriguez is retained.
Rodriguez had swing and miss stuff. Whether he will after arthroscopic shoulder surgery is a question mark. The later it gets without a return, the less likely anyone would claim him. But we may end up with better options anyway, depending on what Mo does.
jnevel-
Thanks for doing this. I have been wondering about this very issue. (In part because I wouldn’t be surprised to see them bring up a centerfielder. I just checked and saw that Antico won’t need to be added to the 40-man, so have ruled out his promotion. But I wonder if we’ll see Pinder called up.)
There’s no way I call up Graceffo, McGreevey, or Scott.
I am inclined to call up Winn, which gets us to 43 on your list. As you note Leahy could be a drop, so 42. I’d get to 40 by (a) dropping Palacios, who seems to me a marginal prospect–I’m willing to let him go to play Winn; (b) Sending a player away in a trade for one of those pitchers. I know we can’t forecast trades, but it seems unlikely to me that we can bring in 3 starters and a reliever without a trade.
I agree with you about Bedell and Pages. Darn. Back up to 42. I’d think that trades would get us there. If not, I would take that chance exposing Gomez and Pages to the Rule 5. But your exexercise does give me pause. Winn will likely be next year’s main SS. It would be good to be start to break him in now in case the callup reveals a reason to be sure to keep Edman for next year in case he needs to be SS instead.
I saw some speculation (can’t recall source) that they will try to pull a 2 or 3 for 1 trade before setting 40-man rosters in part to protect an additional player.
Thanks Gags! I’m glad you enjoyed the analysis. I’m always curious about this roster shuffle at year end because it helps to explain why the Cards make some of the moves they make.
Personally, I’m fine with losing every one of those back end of the 40-man roster players except Hudson. I’d keep him for sure as insurance. I don’t feel like we will end up missing any of the others. But that’s just my opinion after watching them. I’d actually prefer to protect Pages and Bedell and I would sign Brandon Komar to a 40-man roster spot before he leaves as a free agent pitcher. I didn’t mention him above either. His results have been up and down but I see potential in him.
Agreed re this sort of analysis helping to explain the Cards moves.
Thanks for flagging Komar. He’s done better his last four starts, but I notice his low K totals. Can you give a sense of what you see.
I’d surely like to protect Pages. That said, my inclination is to protect pitchers over position players at this point given the particular struggles of the pitching staff. And the Cards have other catching prospects. Hopefully they keep Pages, but Bedell before Pages.
I agree. Bedell before Pages. The other pitcher to consider is Paniagua. He was really on the borderline of being protected last year and the Cards chose not to. Then he got hurt early this season and basically missed most of it. He has been pitching for about 5 weeks but he’s never seen AA or AAA so I think the chances of him being taken are extremely low. Koperniak is the other fielder most likely to be nabbed. He’s left handed, has hit well at every level, can play all 3 outfield positions, has decent speed (although not really stolen base speed), and has some modest power. If he wasn’t left handed, then I think the odds of him being taken are very small because most teams have guys who are very similar to Matt. But given the handedness, I think there’s a decent risk. I don’t think he gets protected though.
As for Komar, I like that he’s pitched very well lately at a ballpark that inflates ERA. I like his size and how it makes him be an extremely durable starter. I like his delivery, which looks easy to repeat. I’m not sure his stuff will ever make him a middle of the rotation guy or not, but I’m just saying I’d rather keep him over the list of back end 40 man players I listed above. I just don’t see Naile or Suarez or Lawrence or Fermin getting much better. Yepez and Gomez could still get better, but I’m betting against it. I’m a little on the fence with Leahy. When he came to Spring Training he was lighting up the velocity gun and mowing guys down. But during the season he’s been mostly bad and has given up tons of hits. After Hudson, Palacios is the one I’d next most like to keep around only because he can play anywhere and he’s a scrappy little guy that’s useful to have on the depth charts in the minors. But that could be replaced with another minor league free agent who isn’t on the 40-man. So here’s my order of back end 40 man guys with the minor league free agents mixed in of who I’d most like to hold onto to least like to keep:
Hudson – keep
Komar – try to keep (add to 40 man)
Palacios – consider keeping
Zuniga – consider keeping
Yepez – consider keeping
Gomez – consider keeping
Woodford – consider keeping
Leahy – consider keeping
Naile – consider keeping
Querecuto – consider adding to 40-man
Fermin – cut ties
Suarez – cut ties
Motter – cut ties
Lawrence – cut tiesRobberse, Kloffenstein, Prieto, Bedell, Pages – add to 40-man
jnevel-
Interesting analysis. Thanks much!
I’m trying to figure out what happened to Yepez and Woodford this year. After an OPS over .920 in nearly 500 ABs in AAA to just .714 this year is a head-scratcher. I have him a bit higher, with separation from Gomez given Yepez’ solid earlier AAA work. Similarly, Woodford seemed much more effective the last two years, so I’m inclined to hang on to him. I’d have the two of them right behind Hudson (and definitely want to hold on to Hudson). And I’d flip Palacios and Zuniga. They can find another Palacios if need be. He has a higher floor than Zuniga, but I think also a lower ceiling.
Good thread. A few random comments.
Has Pages done enough to earn a roster spot? He is repeating Double-A and was not protected last winter from Rule 5 but was not taken. He turns 25 next month.
Bedell has been kept from going deep into games, likely due to workload concerns. Given his injury history, I get it. He has made six starts in the last month and despite pitching very well, he is averaging just under 3 2/3 innings. He will be 24 in a few weeks and is still in A-ball. It seems unlikely he will see Springfield this year. It is very rare for a 40-man player to be that inexperienced. There would be some risk in leaving him unprotected, but he also doesn’t seem anywhere near MLB-ready. If he was taken, what are the odds he could stick?
With all the other talent around, I would like to see Komar longer in Triple-A between now and the end of this year before protecting him. His one and only start there did not go well.
They want more high velocity guys in the pen, which is a big reason why Wilking and Zuniga are on the roster. Of course, they are going to have to produce to stay…
Brian, I think the answer to your question is mostly “no” that he probably hasn’t done enough to elicit being taken. But I’m a Pages lover and I think another team might agree. Here’s why:
1) Pages now has several years of experience under his belt and for catchers, experience is extremely important. Pages was already considered to be really good at handling pitchers and being an overall on-field general so I assume that’s only gotten better.
2) Pages would likely have been in AAA this year had we not gone out and signed Contreras forcing Herrera to stay at AAA and forcing the Cards to sign another catcher (Barrera) as a stopgap to allow Herrera and Pages to still play mostly every day at their levels as the lead catcher.
3) Pages is running a 110 WRC+ as a catcher, which is really good for that position. He walks over 12% of the time and strikes out just over 20% of the time. Those are great numbers. He also tends to be “clutch” for what that is worth. He’s just blocked from moving up.
That’s my reasoning anyway. I expect the Cardinals to not protect him. I’m just saying that I probably would. I’d like he and Herrera to be the catching combo of the future.
Gags – Yepez looks fat and out of shape. I’m guessing he took being good for granted. He has been hitting better the last couple weeks but it’s mostly been a lost season where he’s struggled to the tune of under a .700 OPS in a league where .800 is closer to average. As for Woodford, he’s really never been good. I think he’s been more lucky. His stuff has always been kind of poor. I’m ok with him being a mop-up reliever/long man in the bullpen because someone has to do it and there’s not much reason to invest much money there. That’s it though. I’m also fine if they let him go and give that role to someone else. Woodford’s only two redeeming qualities are that he throws strikes and even when he gets beat up, he still looks like he is trying to compete to his fullest.
I too appreciate the effort on the thread. I don’t keep on top of who will be subject to the Rule 5, so that discussion is especially useful. IIRC, last year we didn’t protect as many as was anticipated. Isn’t there is also an issue of guys needing to be moved up to the AAA roster.
Yeah, there’s a minor league Rule 5 draft too. But in that case, a team can protect up to 40 players (I believe) on the AAA roster temporarily for that draft. The same rules apply for eligibility as in the major league portion. But that one is typically less concerning. For instance, if we didn’t protect Bedell or Pages in the major league rule 5 draft by putting them on our 40-man roster, then the team would definitely protect them by putting them on the AAA roster for the minor league phase. Some other players that would need to be protected or else lost who definitely would be added to the AAA roster are Koperniak (if he isn’t added to the 40-man), Nick Dunn, Jack Ralston, Logan Gragg, LJ Jones, Connor Lunn, Aaron Antonini, Chandler Redmond, Jacob Buchberger, Nick Trogic-Iverson, Paniagua (if he isn’t added to the 40-man), and some other international signees that are tougher for me to track down like Jose Davila, Edwin Nunez, Dionys Rodriguez, Hancel Rincon, and Jeremy Rivas. I’m sure there are others I’m missing who would be surely added. But that should give you a good idea.
There are also some other guys who will just become minor league free agents who we can’t protect unless we add them to the mlb 40-man like Pinder, Komar, Wilfredo Pereira, Kramer Robertson, Querecuto, etc.
Remember that being put on the Triple-A roster for Rule 5 does not protect a player from being selected. It means that if he is taken, he has to stay on his selecting team’s 26-man MLB roster for the entire upcoming season, or be returned.
In other words, if the player is considered MLB-ready or close to it, being on the Triple-A roster for Rule 5 isn’t much protection at all. Being put on the 40-man is the only sure thing.
Brian, Bling was asking about the minor league phase. For instance, no team would take Chandler Redmond in the major league phase, but if he isn’t protected on the AAA roster, he would definitely be scooped up in the minor league phase.
Yes, that is true. I just wanted to clarify for those who are not into the details as they can be confusing.
In Redmond’s case, he is finishing his second year at Double-A. They would have him in Memphis by now if they saw an MLB future for him soon. He is 26 years old and limited defensively similar to Baker, who is ahead of him. But he’s a great bat to have around.
As they set the Memphis Rule 5 roster this fall (which isn’t usually made available), they will trade off what the loss of a Redmond would be compared to Player X, who they also want to protect.
Also, I believe the number is 38, not 40. And if a team fills up all 38 with its own players, then it cannot make selections in that phase of Rule 5. So a lot goes into the protection decisions.
jnevel-
Thanks for that info re Yepez. I’ve not watched AAA games this year. My guess was that he was mad at not making the big leagues rather than overconfident to begin with and fat. Maybe a combo? Regardless, he’s shown more in the past. I’d give him the offseason to get his act together rather than leave him unprotected.
Thanks also for the take on Pages. Could see someone taking him in the Rule 5 as backup catcher if his defense is as good as some suggest, with the hope the bat will develop.
FWIW – I will note 2 knocks against Pages just so I’m being fair. The first is that he’s pudgy and therefore a fairly slow base runner who is likely to get a lot slower as time goes on. He’s listed as 6’1” and 234. I would guess he’s slightly shorter and a little heavier. The second is that he’s been very poor at throwing out would be base stealers in the past. He’s been much better at that this season but I’m not sure if that’s real or not as often bases can be stolen off a pitcher.
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